Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.600, -121.89, 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260310/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 53 33 W 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 33 W 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 32 W 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 32 W 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 32 WNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 30 WNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 31 WNW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 31 WNW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 31 WNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 33 WNW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 35 WNW 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 38 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 57 41 NW 11 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 58 42 NW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 58 42 NW 12 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 58 41 NW 13 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 42 NW 13 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 39 NW 13 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 38 NW 12 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 37 NW 11 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 34 WNW 10 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 34 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 34 NW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 34 WNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 32 NW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 31 NW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 30 WNW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 29 ENE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 30 ENE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 30 NE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 30 ENE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 30 NE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 31 NNE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 32 NNE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 38 NNE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 43 N 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 47 N 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 63 48 N 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 64 49 NW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 48 NW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 46 NW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 44 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 42 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 40 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 39 NNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 39 NNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 39 NNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 39 N 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 38 N 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 36 N 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 35 NNE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 34 NNE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 33 NNE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 33 NNE 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 33 NNE 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 33 NNE 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 35 NNE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 38 NNE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 43 NNE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 47 N 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 51 N 5 10 59 60 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 68 53 N 5 10 164 60 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 69 53 NNW 8 13 164 60 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 69 52 NNW 8 13 112 60 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 68 50 NNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 67 48 NW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 45 NW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 44 NW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 42 NNW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 41 NNW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 41 NNW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 40 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 39 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 38 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 37 N 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 36 N 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 35 N 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 34 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 34 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 34 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 35 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 38 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 40 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 43 NNW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 46 NNW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 65 47 NNW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 66 49 NW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 48 NW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 65 46 NW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 44 NW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 42 NW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 41 NW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 39 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 38 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 38 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 38 NW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 37 NW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 36 NW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 35 NNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 34 NNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 34 NNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 33 NNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 33 NNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 34 NNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 34 N 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 37 N 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 40 N 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 45 N 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 48 N 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 65 49 N 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 66 51 NW 10 17 59 60 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 66 50 NW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 66 48 NW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 65 46 NW 11 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 64 44 NW 11 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 62 42 NW 11 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 40 NW 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 40 NW 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 39 NW 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 39 N 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 38 N 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 37 N 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 36 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 36 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 35 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 36 NNE 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 36 NNE 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 36 NNE 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 38 NNE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 40 NNE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 45 NNE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 67 49 N 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 69 52 N 5 10 112 60 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 70 53 N 5 10 164 60 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 70 52 NW 8 13 112 60 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 70 51 NW 8 13 59 60 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 69 50 NW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 68 48 NW 6 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 66 46 NW 6 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 44 NW 6 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 42 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 42 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 42 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]