Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.600, -121.89, 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250122/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 48 28 ENE 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 27 E 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 25 E 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 25 E 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 24 ENE 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 23 E 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 24 ENE 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 24 ENE 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 25 ENE 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 28 ENE 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 33 NE 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 38 NNE 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 41 N 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 40 NNW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 60 42 NNW 6 9 22 60 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 58 39 NW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 37 NNW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 57 37 NNW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 34 N 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 33 N 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 32 ENE 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 31 ENE 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 31 NNE 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 30 ENE 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 30 ENE 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 29 NE 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 28 ENE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 28 ENE 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 27 NE 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 28 ENE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 28 E 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 28 E 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 30 E 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 32 ENE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 37 ENE 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 40 ENE 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 44 ENE 4 5 62 60 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 63 45 N 3 5 83 60 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 63 45 N 3 5 83 60 0 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 62 43 N 3 5 42 60 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 61 41 W 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 39 W 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 37 W 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 35 SE 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 34 SE 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 33 SE 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 32 ESE 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 32 ESE 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 31 ESE 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 31 ESE 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 30 ESE 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 29 ESE 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 29 E 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 28 E 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 28 E 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 28 E 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 30 E 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 32 E 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 34 NNE 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 37 NNE 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 39 NNE 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 58 39 WNW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 58 39 WNW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 57 37 WNW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 56 36 WNW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 34 WNW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 33 WNW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 31 WNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 31 WNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 30 WNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 30 WNW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 29 WNW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 29 WNW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 28 WNW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 28 WNW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 27 WNW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 27 NW 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 27 NW 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 26 NW 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 27 NNW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 28 NNW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 29 NNW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 31 NW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 32 NW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 53 34 NW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 54 35 WNW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 54 35 WNW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 54 34 WNW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 53 33 NW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 52 32 NW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 51 31 NW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 30 NNW 6 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 29 NNW 6 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 29 NNW 6 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 29 N 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 28 N 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 27 N 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 26 NE 5 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 25 NE 5 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 24 NE 5 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 23 NE 4 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 23 NE 4 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 23 NE 4 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 23 ENE 5 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 24 ENE 5 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 26 ENE 5 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 29 NE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 32 NE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 35 NE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 36 N 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 54 36 N 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 54 35 N 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 54 34 NNW 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 53 33 NNW 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 52 32 NNW 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 31 NNE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 30 NNE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 29 NNE 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 28 ENE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 28 ENE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 27 ENE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 26 ENE 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 25 ENE 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 24 ENE 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 24 ENE 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 23 ENE 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 23 ENE 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 24 ENE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 26 ENE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 28 ENE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 31 NE 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 34 NE 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 37 NE 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 55 37 NNW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 56 38 NNW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 56 37 NNW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 55 35 NW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 34 NW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 32 NW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 30 NNW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 29 NNW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 29 NNW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 28 NE 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]