Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.600, -121.89, 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 60 40 WNW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 40 W 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 39 W 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 38 W 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 38 W 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 38 W 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 38 W 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 38 W 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 38 WNW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 39 NW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 41 WNW 10 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 42 WNW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 46 WNW 13 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 63 48 WNW 13 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 63 48 WNW 13 23 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 64 48 WNW 14 24 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 46 W 14 25 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 43 WNW 16 26 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 63 43 WNW 16 26 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 61 41 WNW 16 26 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 40 WNW 16 27 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 40 WNW 16 27 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 40 NW 16 25 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 40 NW 14 25 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 39 NW 14 24 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 39 NW 14 23 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 38 NW 13 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 38 NW 13 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 38 NW 13 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 38 NW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 38 NW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 37 NW 11 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 38 NW 11 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 38 NW 11 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 40 NW 11 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 43 NW 16 26 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 46 NW 16 26 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 62 47 NW 16 26 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 47 WNW 18 29 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 63 47 WNW 18 29 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 63 46 WNW 18 29 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 43 WNW 17 29 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 42 WNW 17 29 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 41 WNW 17 29 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 40 NW 16 27 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 39 NW 16 27 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 38 NW 16 27 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 38 NW 12 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 38 NW 12 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 37 NW 12 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 36 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 36 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 36 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 36 N 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 36 N 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 36 N 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 37 N 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 38 N 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 40 N 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 43 NW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 46 NW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 47 NW 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 64 50 WNW 11 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 64 49 WNW 11 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 64 47 WNW 11 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 63 44 WNW 12 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 42 WNW 12 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 61 41 WNW 12 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 40 WNW 11 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 39 WNW 11 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 39 WNW 11 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 38 WNW 11 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 38 WNW 11 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 38 WNW 11 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 37 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 37 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 37 NW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 37 NW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 37 NW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 37 NW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 37 NW 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 38 NW 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 39 NW 5 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 41 WNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 61 43 WNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 62 44 WNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 63 47 WNW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 46 WNW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 63 45 WNW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 64 45 W 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 63 43 W 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 42 W 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 40 W 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 40 W 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 40 W 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 39 WNW 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 39 WNW 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 38 WNW 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 38 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 37 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 37 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 37 SW 1 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 37 SW 1 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 37 SW 1 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 38 SSW 1 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 39 SSW 1 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 41 SSW 1 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 45 WSW 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 47 WSW 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 66 49 WSW 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 49 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 67 49 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 66 48 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 65 46 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 44 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 42 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 41 W 2 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 40 W 2 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 40 W 2 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 39 W 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 39 W 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 38 W 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 38 NNW 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 37 NNW 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 37 NNW 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 37 NNE 1 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 37 NNE 1 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 37 NNE 1 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 38 NNE 1 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 39 NNE 1 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 42 NNE 1 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 45 NW 2 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 65 48 NW 2 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 66 50 NW 2 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 67 50 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 67 50 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 67 49 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 66 47 W 8 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 64 44 W 8 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 63 43 W 8 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 42 WNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 41 WNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 40 WNW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]