Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.600, -121.89, 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 56 36 W 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 36 WSW 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 36 WSW 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 36 WSW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 36 WSW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 36 SSW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 36 SW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 36 SW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 36 SW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 37 WSW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 38 WSW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 39 W 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 42 WSW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 43 W 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 44 WSW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 62 45 WSW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 60 42 W 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 60 41 WSW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 40 W 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 38 WSW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 38 WSW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 37 SW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 37 SW 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 36 SW 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 37 SW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 37 SW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 36 SW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 36 SW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 36 SW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 36 SSW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 36 SW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 36 SSW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 36 S 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 37 SSW 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 39 WSW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 41 WSW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 44 WSW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 61 47 WSW 8 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 61 47 WSW 9 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 61 46 WSW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 44 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 60 42 W 6 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 40 W 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 38 W 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 37 W 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 36 W 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 36 W 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 36 W 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 36 W 1 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 36 W 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 36 W 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 35 W 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 35 WSW 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 35 WSW 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 35 WSW 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 35 W 1 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 35 W 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 36 W 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 38 W 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 40 W 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 42 W 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 46 W 6 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 61 47 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 61 46 W 8 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 45 W 8 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 42 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 40 W 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 38 W 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 37 W 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 37 W 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 36 W 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 36 W 3 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 36 WNW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 36 NW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 36 NW 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 35 NNW 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 36 N 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 36 N 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 35 NNW 2 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 35 NW 1 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 36 WNW 2 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 37 WNW 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 39 W 3 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 41 W 4 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 59 44 W 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 60 46 W 6 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 61 47 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 61 46 W 8 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 45 W 8 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 60 43 W 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 40 W 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 38 W 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 37 W 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 36 W 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 35 WNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 35 WNW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 34 NW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 34 NNW 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 34 N 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 34 N 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 34 N 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 34 N 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 34 N 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 34 N 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 34 N 2 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 36 NNW 3 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 37 NW 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 39 WNW 5 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 43 WNW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 60 46 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 48 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 61 47 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 60 44 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 43 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 59 40 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 38 WNW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 37 WNW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 36 NW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 36 NW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 35 NW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 35 NW 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 35 NNW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 35 NNW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 35 NNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 35 NNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 35 NNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 35 NNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 35 NNW 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 35 NW 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 37 NW 4 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 39 NW 5 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 42 NW 6 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 44 NW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 46 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 48 WNW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 48 WNW 10 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 45 WNW 9 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 44 WNW 9 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 41 WNW 9 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 39 WNW 8 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 38 WNW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 37 WNW 8 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 37 NW 6 10 0 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]