Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.600, -121.89, 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 65 45 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 64 44 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 63 43 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 62 42 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 62 42 W 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 61 41 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 62 42 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 61 41 NE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 62 42 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 64 44 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 66 47 NW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 67 49 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 69 53 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 69 53 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 71 55 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 68 51 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 68 50 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 67 48 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 65 45 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 63 43 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 62 42 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 62 42 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 61 41 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 61 41 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 60 40 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 59 39 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 58 38 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 58 38 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 57 37 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 57 37 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 57 37 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 57 37 WNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 57 37 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 58 38 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 60 41 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 61 44 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 63 47 WNW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 64 48 WNW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 64 48 WNW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 64 47 WNW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 64 46 W 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 62 43 W 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 61 41 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 60 40 WNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 59 39 WNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 59 39 WNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 59 39 WNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 59 39 WNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 58 38 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 57 37 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 56 36 NW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 56 36 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 56 36 NW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 56 36 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 56 36 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 56 36 NNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 56 36 NNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 57 37 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 58 39 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 59 41 NW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 61 43 NW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 62 45 NW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 62 45 WNW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 63 45 WNW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 62 43 WNW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 62 42 WNW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 61 41 WNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 60 40 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 59 39 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 59 39 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 59 39 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 59 39 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 58 38 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 58 38 NNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 57 37 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 57 37 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 56 36 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 56 36 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 56 36 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 56 36 NNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 57 37 NNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 58 38 NNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 59 39 NNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 60 40 NW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 61 41 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 62 43 NW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 63 44 WNW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 63 44 WNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 62 42 WNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 62 42 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 61 41 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 60 40 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 59 39 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 58 38 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 58 38 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 58 38 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 57 37 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 57 37 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 56 36 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 56 36 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 56 36 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 56 36 N 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 56 36 N 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 56 36 N 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 56 36 N 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 57 37 N 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 58 39 N 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 42 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 61 44 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 62 46 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 63 46 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 63 46 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 63 44 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 62 42 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 62 42 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 60 40 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 60 40 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 59 39 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 58 38 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 58 38 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 58 38 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 57 37 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 57 37 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 57 37 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 56 36 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 56 36 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 56 36 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 56 36 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 57 37 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 58 38 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 60 41 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 62 44 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 63 45 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 64 47 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 65 48 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 65 47 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 64 45 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 63 43 WNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 62 42 WNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 62 42 WNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 61 41 WNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 61 41 WNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 60 40 WNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]