Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.600, -121.89, 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 47 27 SE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 27 ESE 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 27 E 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 26 NNE 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 25 N 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 25 NE 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 25 ESE 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 24 SE 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 24 SSE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 26 SE 4 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 29 E 4 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 31 NW 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 32 W 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 32 W 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 51 32 W 9 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 51 31 W 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 52 32 WSW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 51 31 SW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 31 SW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 30 SSW 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 30 S 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 29 SSE 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 29 SSE 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 29 SE 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 29 SE 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 29 SE 11 13 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 29 SE 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 30 SSE 12 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 30 SSE 13 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 30 S 16 19 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 30 S 17 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 31 SSE 16 20 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 30 S 14 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 31 S 12 16 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 31 S 14 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 30 S 14 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 30 S 14 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 49 29 SW 17 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 48 28 SW 17 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 48 28 SW 17 21 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 48 28 WNW 14 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 48 28 WNW 14 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 28 WNW 14 18 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 28 WNW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 28 WNW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 28 WNW 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 28 NNW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 27 NNW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 27 NNW 11 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 27 N 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 26 N 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 26 N 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 25 ENE 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 24 ENE 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 24 ENE 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 23 E 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 23 E 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 24 E 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 26 ENE 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 27 ENE 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 47 29 ENE 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 48 30 N 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 48 29 N 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 49 29 N 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 29 NNW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 49 29 NNW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 48 28 NNW 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 27 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 27 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 26 N 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 26 E 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 25 E 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 25 E 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 25 ESE 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 24 ESE 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 24 ESE 6 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 24 SE 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 23 SE 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 23 SE 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 23 SE 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 24 SE 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 25 SE 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 26 SSE 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 28 SSE 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 49 29 SSE 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 50 30 S 13 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 50 30 S 13 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 51 31 S 13 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 51 31 S 13 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 51 31 S 13 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 50 30 S 13 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 30 S 12 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 30 S 12 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 30 S 12 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 30 S 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 30 S 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 29 S 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 29 S 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 29 S 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 29 S 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 28 S 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 28 S 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 27 S 5 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 27 S 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 27 S 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 27 S 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 28 S 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 28 S 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 49 30 S 5 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 49 29 WSW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 50 30 WSW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 50 30 WSW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 50 30 W 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 50 30 W 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 29 W 10 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 29 W 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 28 W 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 28 W 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 27 NNW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 27 NNW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 27 NNW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 26 N 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 26 N 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 25 N 9 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 24 NNE 9 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 24 NNE 9 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 23 NNE 9 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 23 NNE 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 23 NNE 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 24 NNE 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 26 NNE 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 46 28 NNE 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 47 29 NNE 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 48 30 NNW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 49 30 NNW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 50 30 NNW 8 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 50 30 NW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 49 29 NW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 49 29 NW 8 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 28 N 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 27 N 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 26 N 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 26 NNE 6 9 0 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]