Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.517959, -121.892007, 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 SW 5 10 1873 2200 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 63 63 SW 5 9 1855 2200 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 62 62 WSW 6 10 1836 2200 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 60 60 SW 6 10 1790 2200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 59 59 SSW 6 10 1766 2200 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 59 59 WSW 6 10 1766 2200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 57 57 SSW 6 10 1671 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 SW 5 10 1739 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 SW 6 11 1739 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 61 WSW 8 13 1814 2200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 61 63 WSW 9 16 1855 2200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 64 68 WSW 9 17 1995 2200 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 65 71 W 10 19 2156 2200 0 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 66 72 W 11 20 2209 2200 0 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 66 72 W 12 20 2209 2200 0 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 67 72 W 13 21 2209 2200 0 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 65 68 W 13 23 1995 2200 0 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 63 65 W 12 23 1892 2200 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 62 62 W 12 24 1836 2200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 58 58 W 12 24 1739 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 W 13 26 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 WSW 13 27 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 WSW 13 27 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 WSW 12 25 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 WSW 12 24 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 WSW 12 21 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 10 19 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 10 17 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 WSW 10 16 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 WSW 9 14 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 WSW 9 14 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 WSW 9 14 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 W 8 18 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 55 W 8 18 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 58 W 8 18 1739 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 62 WNW 9 18 1836 2200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 62 67 WNW 9 18 1942 2200 0 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 64 70 WNW 9 18 2102 2200 0 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 65 71 WNW 10 20 2156 2200 0 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 66 71 WNW 10 20 2156 2200 0 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 65 68 WNW 10 20 1995 2200 0 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 64 66 WNW 10 20 1910 2200 0 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 62 62 WNW 10 20 1836 2200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 60 60 WNW 10 20 1790 2200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 57 57 W 5 10 1671 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 W 5 10 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 W 5 10 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 WSW 4 8 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 WSW 4 8 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 WSW 4 8 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 SW 3 5 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 SW 3 5 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 SW 3 5 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 SW 2 4 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 SW 2 4 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 SW 2 4 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 SSW 3 5 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 58 SSW 3 5 1739 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 63 SSW 3 5 1855 2200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 65 69 WNW 4 10 2049 2200 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 68 74 WNW 4 10 2634 2200 0 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 71 77 WNW 4 10 3030 2630 430 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 72 78 WNW 9 17 3203 2762 562 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 73 78 WNW 9 17 3203 2762 562 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 72 75 WNW 9 17 2766 2208 8 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 71 73 W 9 17 2493 2200 0 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 68 68 W 9 17 1995 2200 0 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 64 64 W 9 17 1873 2200 0 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 61 61 W 4 9 1814 2200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 59 59 W 4 9 1766 2200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 58 58 W 4 9 1739 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 SW 5 8 1739 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 SW 5 8 1671 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 SW 5 8 1671 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 SW 5 8 1671 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 SW 5 8 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 SW 5 8 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 SSW 5 8 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 SSW 5 8 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 SSW 5 8 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 SSW 5 9 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 SSW 5 9 1671 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 62 SSW 5 9 1836 2200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 63 67 WSW 4 11 1942 2200 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 66 71 WSW 4 11 2156 2200 0 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 69 75 WSW 4 11 2766 2208 8 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 71 76 W 8 14 2898 2489 289 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 71 75 W 8 14 2766 2208 8 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 71 74 W 8 14 2634 2200 0 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 70 71 W 8 13 2156 2200 0 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 66 66 W 8 13 1910 2200 0 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 8 13 1855 2200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 61 61 W 4 8 1814 2200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 60 60 W 4 8 1790 2200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 59 59 W 4 8 1766 2200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 58 58 SW 4 9 1739 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 SW 4 9 1739 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 SW 4 9 1739 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 SSW 3 9 1671 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 SSW 3 9 1671 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 SSW 3 9 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 SSW 3 9 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 3 9 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 3 9 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 S 4 9 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 59 S 4 9 1766 2200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 62 64 S 4 9 1873 2200 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 65 69 WSW 4 11 2049 2200 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 68 73 WSW 4 11 2493 2200 0 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 70 76 WSW 4 11 2898 2489 289 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 72 77 W 6 14 3030 2630 430 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 72 76 W 6 14 2898 2489 289 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 72 75 W 6 14 2766 2208 8 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 70 72 WNW 8 14 2209 2200 0 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 68 68 WNW 8 14 1995 2200 0 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 64 64 WNW 8 14 1873 2200 0 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 62 62 W 4 8 1836 2200 0 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 60 60 W 4 8 1790 2200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 60 60 W 4 8 1790 2200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 59 59 WSW 3 6 1766 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 WSW 3 6 1766 2200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 58 58 WSW 3 6 1739 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 SW 2 5 1739 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 SW 2 5 1739 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 SW 2 5 1739 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 SW 2 4 1739 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 SW 2 4 1671 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 SW 2 4 1628 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 WSW 2 5 1671 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 59 WSW 2 5 1766 2200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 62 63 WSW 2 5 1855 2200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 65 69 W 4 10 2049 2200 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 68 73 W 4 10 2493 2200 0 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 70 75 W 4 10 2766 2208 8 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 71 76 WNW 6 16 2898 2489 289 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 72 76 WNW 6 16 2898 2489 289 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 72 75 WNW 6 16 2766 2208 8 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 70 72 WNW 9 16 2209 2200 0 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 68 68 WNW 9 16 1995 2200 0 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 65 65 WNW 9 16 1892 2200 0 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 62 62 WNW 4 10 1836 2200 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 60 60 WNW 4 10 1790 2200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 59 59 WNW 4 10 1766 2200 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]