Detailed Predictions for: Mission Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.517959, -121.892007, 2200
LZ Altitude (f): 500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 SSE 5 8 449 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 SSE 6 8 449 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 S 5 8 449 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 S 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 S 4 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 S 4 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 S 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 S 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 S 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 45 S 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 49 SSW 6 9 1459 2200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 52 54 SW 9 10 2466 2200 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 53 55 SW 9 11 2623 2200 0 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 54 56 SW 9 11 3230 2316 116 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 55 56 WSW 10 12 3230 2316 116 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 54 54 WSW 10 12 2466 2200 0 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 54 54 WSW 9 11 2466 2200 0 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 51 51 SW 8 9 2005 2200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 49 49 SSW 6 9 1459 2200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 48 48 S 9 11 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 48 48 S 11 13 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 48 48 S 13 16 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 48 48 S 14 18 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 48 48 S 17 21 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 S 18 23 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 49 49 S 20 25 1459 2200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 49 49 S 23 27 1459 2200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 49 49 S 24 29 1459 2200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 49 49 S 26 33 1459 2200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 48 48 S 25 31 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 48 48 S 24 29 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 48 48 S 23 29 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 47 47 S 21 27 878 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 S 19 25 513 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 46 S 17 20 513 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 46 S 17 20 513 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 47 S 17 20 878 2200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 47 47 SW 13 17 878 2200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 46 46 SW 13 17 513 2200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 46 46 SW 13 17 513 2200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 45 45 WSW 12 14 449 2200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 WSW 12 14 449 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 44 44 WSW 12 14 449 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 WSW 8 10 449 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 WSW 8 10 449 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 WSW 8 10 449 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 WSW 9 12 449 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 WSW 9 12 449 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 WSW 9 12 449 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 SSW 9 11 449 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 SSW 9 11 449 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 SSW 9 11 449 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 SSE 6 9 449 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 SSE 6 9 449 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 SSE 6 9 449 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 SE 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 SE 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 42 SE 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 45 E 6 8 449 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 48 E 6 8 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 48 50 E 6 8 1733 2200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 49 51 N 6 9 2005 2200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 49 50 N 6 9 1733 2200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 48 48 N 6 9 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 48 48 N 6 9 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 46 46 N 6 9 513 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 44 44 N 6 9 449 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 ESE 5 8 449 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 ESE 5 8 449 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 ESE 5 8 449 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 SE 8 10 449 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 SE 8 10 449 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 SE 8 10 449 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 SE 8 10 449 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 SE 8 10 449 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 SE 8 10 449 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 SSE 9 11 449 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 SSE 9 11 449 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 SSE 9 11 449 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 SSE 9 11 449 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 SSE 9 11 449 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 SSE 9 11 449 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 46 SSE 11 14 513 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 48 SSE 11 14 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 50 50 SSE 11 14 1733 2200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 50 50 S 13 17 1733 2200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 50 50 S 13 17 1733 2200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 50 50 S 13 17 1733 2200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 49 49 S 13 17 1459 2200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 48 48 S 13 17 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 48 48 S 13 17 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 47 47 S 10 13 878 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 S 10 13 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 48 48 S 10 13 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 48 48 S 9 11 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 48 48 S 9 11 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 S 9 11 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 48 48 S 9 11 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 47 47 S 9 11 878 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 S 9 11 878 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 SSE 8 10 513 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 SSE 8 10 449 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 SSE 8 10 449 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 SSE 5 8 449 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 SSE 5 8 449 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 SSE 5 8 513 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 47 S 8 10 878 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 48 S 8 10 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 49 49 S 8 10 1459 2200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 49 49 SW 8 10 1459 2200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 49 49 SW 8 10 1459 2200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 48 48 SW 8 10 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 48 48 W 8 10 1232 2200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 46 46 W 8 10 513 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 45 W 8 10 449 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 ENE 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 ENE 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 ENE 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 N 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 N 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 N 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 NNE 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 NNE 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 NNE 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 NNE 4 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 NNE 4 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 NNE 4 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 NE 4 5 449 2200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 NE 4 5 449 2200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 42 NE 4 5 449 2200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 45 NNW 5 6 449 2200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 46 47 NNW 5 6 878 2200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 48 50 NNW 5 6 1733 2200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 50 52 NW 6 8 2183 2200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 50 51 NW 6 8 2005 2200 0 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 50 50 NW 6 8 1733 2200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 49 49 NW 5 8 1459 2200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 47 47 NW 5 8 878 2200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 45 45 NW 5 8 449 2200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 43 43 NNW 4 5 449 2200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 42 NNW 4 5 449 2200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 42 42 NNW 4 5 449 2200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 E 4 5 449 2200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]