Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.87787, -121.93, 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 84 84 WSW 9 18 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 83 83 WSW 9 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 81 81 WSW 9 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 81 81 WSW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 81 81 WSW 10 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 79 79 W 11 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 82 82 WSW 11 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 80 80 SW 11 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 78 78 WSW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 79 SSW 9 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 79 81 SW 9 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 80 83 SSW 9 18 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 81 85 SW 9 18 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 80 84 SW 10 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 79 82 SW 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 82 85 WSW 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 80 82 WSW 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 79 81 SW 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 79 80 WSW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 77 77 WSW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 76 76 SW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 76 76 SW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 76 76 SW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 75 75 SW 9 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 77 77 SW 9 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 77 77 SW 9 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 75 75 SW 9 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 74 74 SW 9 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 75 75 SW 9 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 74 74 SW 9 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 76 76 SW 9 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 75 75 WSW 10 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 76 WSW 9 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 78 WSW 9 18 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 77 80 W 8 17 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 77 82 W 8 17 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 78 84 W 9 17 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 78 85 W 9 18 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 79 87 W 10 18 2847 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 79 86 W 11 19 2758 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 79 84 W 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 79 82 W 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 77 79 W 11 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 74 74 WSW 11 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 72 72 WSW 11 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 71 71 WSW 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 71 WSW 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 71 WSW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 WSW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 WSW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 WSW 10 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 WSW 11 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 70 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 71 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 72 WSW 11 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 73 WSW 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 71 75 WSW 10 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 71 77 WSW 10 18 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 72 80 WSW 10 18 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 74 82 W 11 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 75 83 W 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 76 83 W 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 75 80 W 12 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 75 78 W 12 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 73 75 W 12 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 72 72 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 70 70 WSW 11 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 70 70 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 70 70 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 70 70 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 WSW 10 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 69 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 69 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 69 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 70 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 71 WSW 11 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 72 WSW 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 74 W 10 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 70 76 W 10 18 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 72 80 W 10 18 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 73 81 W 11 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 74 82 W 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 74 81 W 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 74 79 W 12 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 73 76 W 12 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 72 74 W 12 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 71 71 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 70 70 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 69 69 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 69 69 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 69 WSW 10 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 WSW 10 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 69 WSW 10 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 WSW 10 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 WSW 11 23 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 WSW 11 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 70 WSW 11 21 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 WSW 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 71 WSW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 72 WSW 10 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 73 W 9 18 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 76 W 9 17 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 71 79 W 9 17 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 72 80 W 10 18 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 73 81 W 11 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 74 81 W 11 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 74 79 W 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 73 76 W 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 72 74 W 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 71 71 WSW 11 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 70 70 WSW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 70 WSW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 70 WSW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 WSW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 70 SW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 70 SW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 SW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 SW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 SW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 SW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 WSW 9 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 72 WSW 9 18 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 73 WSW 8 17 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 75 WSW 8 16 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 72 78 WSW 6 14 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 73 81 WSW 8 16 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 75 83 WSW 9 16 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 76 84 WSW 10 17 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 77 84 WSW 10 18 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 77 82 WSW 10 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 76 79 WSW 10 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 76 77 WSW 10 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 10 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 73 73 WSW 10 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 72 72 WSW 10 19 2703 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 72 72 SW 10 20 2703 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]