Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.87787, -121.93, 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 S 6 9 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 S 6 9 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 S 6 9 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 SSW 8 9 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 SW 8 9 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 SW 6 9 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 SW 8 10 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 SW 8 10 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 SW 8 10 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 SW 8 9 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 47 SW 6 9 2525 3000 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 48 50 SW 8 10 3816 3000 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 49 51 SW 9 11 3997 3000 0 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 49 51 SW 10 12 3997 3000 0 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 49 50 SW 10 13 3816 3000 0 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 50 50 SW 11 13 3816 3000 0 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 48 48 SW 12 14 2786 3000 0 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 46 46 SW 11 13 2381 3000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 46 46 SW 12 16 2381 3000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 45 45 SSW 13 17 2237 3000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 46 46 SSW 14 19 2381 3000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 47 47 SSW 17 20 2525 3000 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 48 48 S 18 23 2786 3000 0 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 48 48 S 23 28 2786 3000 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 S 27 34 2786 3000 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 48 48 S 28 35 2786 3000 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 48 48 S 31 39 2786 3000 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 48 48 S 34 42 2786 3000 0 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 48 48 S 36 46 2786 3000 0 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 47 47 S 34 42 2525 3000 0 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 47 47 S 27 35 2525 3000 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 46 46 S 23 27 2381 3000 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 43 43 S 19 24 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 SSW 18 23 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 43 SW 19 24 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 42 42 SW 19 24 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 42 42 SW 19 24 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 41 41 W 14 18 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 40 40 W 14 18 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 40 40 W 14 18 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 40 40 WSW 13 17 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 40 40 WSW 13 17 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 41 41 WSW 13 17 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 42 42 W 14 18 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 W 14 18 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 W 14 18 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 WSW 14 18 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 WSW 14 18 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 WSW 14 18 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 13 18 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 13 18 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 WSW 13 18 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 SW 13 17 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 SW 13 17 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 SW 13 17 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 SW 10 12 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 SW 10 12 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 42 SW 10 12 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 44 NNE 6 8 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 44 45 NNE 6 8 2237 3000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 44 46 NNE 6 8 2381 3000 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 44 45 NNE 9 11 2237 3000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 44 45 NNE 9 11 2237 3000 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 44 44 NNE 9 11 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 44 44 N 6 9 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 43 N 6 9 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 N 6 9 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 41 ENE 8 10 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 ENE 8 10 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 ENE 8 10 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 SE 10 13 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 SE 10 13 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 SE 10 13 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 SE 10 12 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 SE 10 12 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 SE 10 12 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 SSE 11 13 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 SSE 11 13 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 SSE 11 13 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 SSE 12 16 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 SSE 12 16 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 43 SSE 12 16 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 43 SSE 14 18 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 44 44 SSE 14 18 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 45 45 SSE 14 18 2237 3000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 45 45 S 18 23 2237 3000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 45 45 S 18 23 2237 3000 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 45 45 S 18 23 2237 3000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 45 45 S 13 16 2237 3000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 46 46 S 13 16 2381 3000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 47 47 S 13 16 2525 3000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 48 48 S 12 16 2786 3000 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 49 49 S 12 16 3424 3000 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 49 49 S 12 16 3424 3000 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 49 49 S 12 16 3424 3000 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 50 50 S 12 16 3816 3000 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 S 12 16 3816 3000 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 50 50 S 11 14 3816 3000 0 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 50 50 S 11 14 3816 3000 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 49 49 S 11 14 3424 3000 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 48 48 S 9 12 2786 3000 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 48 48 S 9 12 2786 3000 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 47 47 S 9 12 2525 3000 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 46 46 S 8 10 2381 3000 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 46 46 S 8 10 2381 3000 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 46 46 S 8 10 2381 3000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 46 46 S 6 9 2381 3000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 46 46 S 6 9 2381 3000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 45 45 S 6 9 2237 3000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 45 45 SW 8 10 2237 3000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 44 44 SW 8 10 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 44 44 SW 8 10 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 44 44 W 9 11 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 W 9 11 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 43 43 W 9 11 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 WNW 8 10 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 WNW 8 10 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 WNW 8 10 2381 3000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 47 47 NNW 9 11 2525 3000 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 47 47 NNW 9 11 2525 3000 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 NNW 9 11 2525 3000 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 47 47 N 9 11 2525 3000 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 46 46 N 9 11 2381 3000 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 11 2237 3000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 44 44 NNW 6 9 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 NNW 6 9 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 NNW 6 9 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 NNW 6 8 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 NNW 6 8 1322 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 42 NNW 6 8 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 43 44 NNW 5 8 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 45 NNW 5 8 2237 3000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 44 46 NNW 5 8 2381 3000 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 45 47 NW 6 8 2525 3000 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 45 46 NW 6 8 2381 3000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 45 45 NW 6 8 2237 3000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 44 44 WNW 5 6 2092 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 43 43 WNW 5 6 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 42 42 WNW 5 6 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 W 5 6 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 42 W 5 6 1547 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 W 5 6 1826 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 SSW 6 9 2092 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]