Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.87787, -121.93, 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 SE 9 16 2507 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 36 ESE 9 14 2507 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 E 12 18 2507 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 E 12 18 2507 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 E 11 17 2507 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 E 12 19 2507 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 E 10 16 2507 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 ENE 8 11 2507 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 E 8 11 2507 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 37 E 9 12 2507 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 36 37 E 8 11 2507 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 37 38 NE 3 6 2507 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 39 41 N 2 6 4088 3000 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 40 43 N 4 8 4534 3640 640 White 2
2 PM Sun 41 43 NW 5 9 4534 3640 640 White 2
3 PM Sun 43 45 NW 8 11 4977 4629 1629 White 4
4 PM Sun 42 43 WNW 10 13 4534 3640 640 White 2
5 PM Sun 42 42 W 13 18 4308 3000 0 White 1
6 PM Sun 41 41 W 12 17 4088 3000 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 40 40 W 11 16 3662 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 W 11 16 4088 3000 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 W 11 14 3662 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 W 10 13 2856 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 39 39 W 9 13 2856 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 W 10 14 2856 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 W 10 14 2507 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 W 10 13 2507 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 W 6 10 2507 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 WNW 5 9 2856 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 WNW 5 8 2856 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 WNW 5 8 3662 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 NNW 4 6 3662 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 N 5 9 4088 3000 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 42 43 NNW 5 9 4534 3640 640 White 2
10 AM Mon 43 45 NNW 4 9 4977 4629 1629 White 4
11 AM Mon 45 47 NNW 4 9 5410 5410 2410 White 6
12 Noon Mon 46 49 NNW 4 9 5841 5841 2841 White 8
1 PM Mon 48 51 NNW 4 9 6267 6267 3267 White 10
2 PM Mon 49 54 NNW 6 10 6903 6903 3903 White 13
3 PM Mon 50 54 NNW 6 10 6903 6903 3903 White 13
4 PM Mon 50 53 NNW 6 10 6692 6692 3692 White 12
5 PM Mon 50 52 NW 6 11 6480 6480 3480 White 11
6 PM Mon 48 48 NW 6 11 5625 5625 2625 White 7
7 PM Mon 47 47 NW 6 11 5410 5410 2410 White 6
8 PM Mon 45 45 WSW 9 14 4977 4629 1629 White 4
9 PM Mon 44 44 WSW 9 14 4760 4303 1303 White 3
10 PM Mon 43 43 WSW 9 14 4534 3640 640 White 2
11 PM Mon 42 42 SW 9 13 4308 3000 0 White 1
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 SW 9 13 4308 3000 0 White 1
1 AM Tue 42 42 SW 9 13 4308 3000 0 White 1
2 AM Tue 42 42 SW 10 16 4308 3000 0 White 1
3 AM Tue 41 41 SW 10 16 4088 3000 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 SW 10 16 4088 3000 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 SW 9 13 4088 3000 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 SW 9 13 4308 3000 0 White 1
7 AM Tue 44 44 SW 9 13 4760 4303 1303 White 3
8 AM Tue 45 45 WSW 8 12 4977 4629 1629 White 4
9 AM Tue 47 48 WSW 8 12 5625 5625 2625 White 7
10 AM Tue 49 52 WSW 8 12 6480 6480 3480 White 11
11 AM Tue 51 56 N 8 12 7324 7324 4324 White 15
12 Noon Tue 53 59 N 8 12 7953 7953 4953 White 18
1 PM Tue 55 62 N 8 12 8577 8577 5577 White 21
2 PM Tue 56 62 NW 9 13 8577 8577 5577 White 21
3 PM Tue 57 62 NW 9 13 8577 8577 5577 White 21
4 PM Tue 57 60 NW 9 13 8159 8159 5159 White 19
5 PM Tue 56 58 W 10 14 7745 7745 4745 White 17
6 PM Tue 55 55 W 10 14 7114 7114 4114 White 14
7 PM Tue 54 54 W 10 14 6903 6903 3903 White 13
8 PM Tue 52 52 W 9 14 6480 6480 3480 White 11
9 PM Tue 51 51 W 9 14 6267 6267 3267 White 10
10 PM Tue 50 50 W 9 14 6055 6055 3055 White 9
11 PM Tue 49 49 WSW 9 14 5841 5841 2841 White 8
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 WSW 9 14 5625 5625 2625 White 7
1 AM Wed 47 47 WSW 9 14 5410 5410 2410 White 6
2 AM Wed 47 47 WSW 10 16 5410 5410 2410 White 6
3 AM Wed 47 47 WSW 10 16 5410 5410 2410 White 6
4 AM Wed 46 46 WSW 10 16 5193 5025 2025 White 5
5 AM Wed 47 47 W 9 13 5410 5410 2410 White 6
6 AM Wed 48 48 W 9 13 5625 5625 2625 White 7
7 AM Wed 49 49 W 9 13 5841 5841 2841 White 8
8 AM Wed 50 50 N 9 13 6055 6055 3055 White 9
9 AM Wed 52 53 N 9 13 6692 6692 3692 White 12
10 AM Wed 54 57 N 9 13 7534 7534 4534 White 16
11 AM Wed 56 60 NNE 10 14 8159 8159 5159 White 19
12 Noon Wed 58 63 NNE 10 14 8783 8783 5783 White 22
1 PM Wed 59 64 NNE 10 14 8987 8987 5987 White 23
2 PM Wed 61 66 N 10 14 9398 9398 6398 White 25
3 PM Wed 62 66 N 10 14 9398 9398 6398 White 25
4 PM Wed 63 66 N 10 14 9398 9398 6398 White 25
5 PM Wed 62 63 NW 9 13 8783 8783 5783 White 22
6 PM Wed 61 61 NW 9 13 8369 8369 5369 White 20
7 PM Wed 59 59 NW 9 13 7953 7953 4953 White 18
8 PM Wed 57 57 W 8 12 7534 7534 4534 White 16
9 PM Wed 55 55 W 8 12 7114 7114 4114 White 14
10 PM Wed 54 54 W 8 12 6903 6903 3903 White 13
11 PM Wed 52 52 SW 9 12 6480 6480 3480 White 11
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 SW 9 12 6267 6267 3267 White 10
1 AM Thu 51 51 SW 9 12 6267 6267 3267 White 10
2 AM Thu 50 50 SW 9 12 6055 6055 3055 White 9
3 AM Thu 50 50 SW 9 12 6055 6055 3055 White 9
4 AM Thu 49 49 SW 9 12 5841 5841 2841 White 8
5 AM Thu 49 49 WSW 9 13 5841 5841 2841 White 8
6 AM Thu 50 50 WSW 9 13 6055 6055 3055 White 9
7 AM Thu 51 51 WSW 9 13 6267 6267 3267 White 10
8 AM Thu 52 52 N 8 12 6480 6480 3480 White 11
9 AM Thu 54 55 N 8 12 7114 7114 4114 White 14
10 AM Thu 56 58 N 8 12 7745 7745 4745 White 17
11 AM Thu 57 60 N 9 13 8159 8159 5159 White 19
12 Noon Thu 59 63 N 9 13 8783 8783 5783 White 22
1 PM Thu 61 65 N 9 13 9193 9193 6193 White 24
2 PM Thu 62 66 NW 9 13 9398 9398 6398 White 25
3 PM Thu 63 66 NW 9 13 9398 9398 6398 White 25
4 PM Thu 64 66 NW 9 13 9398 9398 6398 White 25
5 PM Thu 63 64 W 10 14 8987 8987 5987 White 23
6 PM Thu 61 61 W 10 14 8369 8369 5369 White 20
7 PM Thu 59 59 W 10 14 7953 7953 4953 White 18
8 PM Thu 56 56 W 9 14 7324 7324 4324 White 15
9 PM Thu 54 54 W 9 14 6903 6903 3903 White 13
10 PM Thu 53 53 W 9 14 6692 6692 3692 White 12
11 PM Thu 51 51 WSW 10 16 6267 6267 3267 White 10
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 WSW 10 16 6055 6055 3055 White 9
1 AM Fri 49 49 WSW 10 16 5841 5841 2841 White 8
2 AM Fri 48 48 SW 10 16 5625 5625 2625 White 7
3 AM Fri 47 47 SW 10 16 5410 5410 2410 White 6
4 AM Fri 47 47 SW 10 16 5410 5410 2410 White 6
5 AM Fri 47 47 SW 10 16 5410 5410 2410 White 6
6 AM Fri 47 47 SW 10 16 5410 5410 2410 White 6
7 AM Fri 48 48 SW 10 16 5625 5625 2625 White 7
8 AM Fri 49 49 WSW 10 16 5841 5841 2841 White 8
9 AM Fri 51 52 WSW 10 16 6480 6480 3480 White 11
10 AM Fri 53 56 WSW 10 16 7324 7324 4324 White 15
11 AM Fri 55 59 WSW 11 16 7953 7953 4953 White 18
12 Noon Fri 56 61 WSW 11 16 8369 8369 5369 White 20
1 PM Fri 58 64 WSW 11 16 8987 8987 5987 White 23
2 PM Fri 58 64 WSW 12 18 8987 8987 5987 White 23
3 PM Fri 58 63 WSW 12 18 8783 8783 5783 White 22
4 PM Fri 58 61 WSW 12 18 8369 8369 5369 White 20
5 PM Fri 57 59 WSW 13 19 7953 7953 4953 White 18
6 PM Fri 55 55 WSW 13 19 7114 7114 4114 White 14
7 PM Fri 53 53 WSW 13 19 6692 6692 3692 White 12
8 PM Fri 51 51 WSW 12 18 6267 6267 3267 White 10
9 PM Fri 49 49 WSW 12 18 5841 5841 2841 White 8
10 PM Fri 48 48 WSW 12 18 5625 5625 2625 White 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]