Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.87787, -121.93, 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 NNW 5 5 3113 3000 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 47 47 NNW 5 6 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 5 6 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 NNW 5 8 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 NNW 5 8 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 N 6 9 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 NNW 6 10 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 NNW 6 10 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 43 NW 6 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 44 NW 6 10 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 48 NW 8 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 46 47 NW 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 47 48 NW 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 49 50 NW 9 12 2935 3000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 48 49 NW 8 12 2786 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 47 47 NW 8 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 46 46 NW 5 9 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 45 45 WNW 5 9 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 45 45 WNW 5 9 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 NW 6 9 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 WNW 6 10 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 46 W 6 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 WNW 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 W 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 W 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 NW 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 WNW 9 14 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 NW 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 NNW 9 14 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 NNW 11 17 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 N 12 18 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 N 12 18 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 N 12 18 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 45 N 12 18 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 45 N 12 18 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 46 46 N 12 18 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 47 48 N 12 18 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 48 50 N 11 17 2935 3000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 48 49 N 11 17 2786 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 48 48 N 11 17 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 47 47 NNW 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 46 46 NNW 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 45 45 NNW 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 44 44 W 8 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 W 8 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 W 8 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 WSW 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 WSW 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 WSW 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 NNW 9 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 NNW 9 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 NNW 9 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 NNE 6 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 NNE 6 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 NNE 6 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 NE 8 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 NE 8 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 NE 8 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 40 41 NE 6 10 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 41 42 NE 6 10 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 42 43 NE 6 10 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 43 44 NE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 43 44 NE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 43 43 NE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 43 43 NE 8 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 43 43 NE 8 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 43 43 NE 8 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 ENE 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 44 44 ENE 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 ENE 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 E 8 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 E 8 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 E 8 11 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 E 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 E 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 E 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 ENE 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 ENE 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 ENE 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 41 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 41 41 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 42 43 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 42 43 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 43 44 ENE 10 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 43 43 ENE 10 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 43 43 ENE 10 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 42 42 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 42 42 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 42 42 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 42 42 ENE 9 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 ENE 9 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 ENE 9 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 E 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 E 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 E 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 9 14 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 9 14 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 9 14 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 42 43 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 43 44 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 44 45 NE 9 14 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 44 44 NE 9 14 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 44 44 NE 9 14 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 43 43 NE 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 43 NE 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 43 43 NE 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 ENE 8 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 ENE 8 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 ENE 8 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 E 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 E 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 E 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 9 14 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 9 14 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 9 14 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 44 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 44 45 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 45 46 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 46 47 ENE 11 16 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 46 47 ENE 11 16 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 46 46 ENE 11 16 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 45 45 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 45 45 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 45 ENE 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 E 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 E 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 E 8 12 2723 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 E 9 13 2723 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]