Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.87787, -121.93, 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 W 9 18 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 W 9 17 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 W 9 18 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 W 10 19 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 WSW 11 20 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 W 11 21 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 WSW 12 21 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 WSW 11 21 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 WSW 12 23 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 64 SW 13 24 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 65 SW 16 24 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 68 WSW 16 25 2638 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 70 SW 17 26 2906 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 65 71 WSW 17 27 3040 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 65 71 WSW 17 28 3040 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 66 70 WSW 18 28 2906 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 66 WSW 18 27 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 64 W 17 29 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 61 W 17 29 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 57 W 17 29 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 W 14 28 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 13 28 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 W 13 28 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 W 14 28 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 W 13 28 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 W 13 27 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 W 12 26 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 W 12 23 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 W 12 23 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 W 11 21 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 W 11 21 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 W 11 21 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 W 6 16 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 56 W 6 16 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 61 W 6 16 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 63 WNW 6 16 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 68 WNW 6 16 2638 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 64 70 WNW 6 16 2906 3000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 65 70 W 9 18 2906 3000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 67 71 W 9 18 3040 3000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 66 69 W 9 18 2772 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 66 68 W 8 17 2638 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 65 65 W 8 17 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 W 8 17 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 WSW 5 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 WSW 5 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 WSW 5 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 WSW 5 10 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 WSW 5 10 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 WSW 5 10 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 WSW 4 9 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 WSW 4 9 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 WSW 4 9 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 WSW 4 9 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 WSW 4 9 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 WSW 4 9 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 SW 4 10 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 61 SW 4 10 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 66 SW 4 10 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 72 WNW 4 12 3219 3000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 71 77 WNW 4 12 3873 3581 581 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 72 78 WNW 4 12 4051 3703 703 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 73 79 W 8 17 4146 3787 787 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 73 78 W 8 17 4051 3703 703 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 73 76 W 8 17 3789 3399 399 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 72 74 WSW 10 18 3586 3039 39 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 69 69 WSW 10 18 2772 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 65 65 WSW 10 18 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 62 SW 6 12 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 SW 6 12 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 SW 6 12 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 SW 6 13 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 SW 6 13 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 SW 6 13 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 SW 6 12 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 SW 6 12 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 SW 6 12 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 SW 5 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 SW 5 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 SW 5 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 SW 5 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 59 SW 5 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 63 SW 5 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 67 SW 3 10 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 70 SW 3 10 2906 3000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 68 74 SW 3 10 3586 3039 39 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 69 74 WSW 6 14 3586 3039 39 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 70 74 WSW 6 14 3586 3039 39 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 70 73 WSW 6 14 3402 3000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 68 69 WSW 8 17 2772 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 8 17 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 62 WSW 8 17 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 WSW 6 14 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 WSW 6 14 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 WSW 6 14 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 SW 6 14 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 SW 6 14 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 SW 6 14 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 SW 6 13 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 SW 6 13 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 SW 6 13 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 SW 5 12 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 SW 5 12 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 SW 5 12 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 SW 5 12 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 61 SW 5 12 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 64 SW 5 12 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 68 WSW 5 11 2638 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 72 WSW 5 11 3219 3000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 69 75 WSW 5 11 3705 3216 216 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 70 76 WSW 6 14 3789 3399 399 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 71 76 WSW 6 14 3789 3399 399 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 70 73 WSW 6 14 3402 3000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 69 71 WSW 8 17 3040 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 66 66 WSW 8 17 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 WSW 8 17 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 61 WSW 6 14 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 6 14 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 6 14 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 6 13 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 WSW 6 13 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 WSW 6 13 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 WSW 5 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 WSW 5 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 WSW 5 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 WSW 5 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 WSW 5 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 WSW 5 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 WSW 4 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 62 WSW 4 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 65 WSW 4 11 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 69 W 5 12 2772 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 72 W 5 12 3219 3000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 69 75 W 5 12 3705 3216 216 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 71 76 W 8 16 3789 3399 399 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 71 75 W 8 16 3705 3216 216 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 71 74 W 8 16 3586 3039 39 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 70 72 W 8 18 3219 3000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 67 67 W 8 18 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 64 W 8 18 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 WSW 6 14 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 61 WSW 6 14 2526 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 WSW 6 14 2526 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]