Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 WNW 3 7 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 WNW 3 7 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 WNW 3 6 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 WNW 3 6 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 WNW 3 6 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 WNW 3 6 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 WNW 2 5 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 WNW 2 5 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 WNW 2 4 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 49 WNW 2 4 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 53 N 1 2 5100 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 56 ENE 2 2 6172 5099 149 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 58 59 NE 2 2 7109 6159 1209 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 60 61 NE 2 2 8086 6781 1831 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 61 62 ENE 2 2 8616 7088 2138 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 61 61 ENE 2 2 8086 6781 1831 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 60 60 E 2 2 7540 6471 1521 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 57 57 SE 1 1 6487 5354 404 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 55 55 WSW 2 4 5613 4950 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 54 54 WSW 3 6 5357 4950 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 53 53 W 3 6 5100 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 W 3 6 5100 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 WNW 2 5 4861 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 WNW 2 5 4632 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 WNW 2 5 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 WNW 3 6 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 WNW 2 6 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 WNW 3 6 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 WNW 3 6 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 WNW 2 6 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 NW 3 6 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 NW 3 6 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 WNW 4 8 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 52 WNW 4 8 4861 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 57 NW 3 4 6487 5354 404 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 59 60 N 8 9 7540 6471 1521 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 62 64 N 11 12 9631 8032 3082 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 64 66 N 12 14 12782 9061 4111 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 64 65 N 12 13 10895 8554 3604 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 64 64 N 11 13 9631 8032 3082 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 63 63 N 9 11 9130 7494 2544 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 59 59 N 8 11 7109 6159 1209 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 56 56 NW 6 14 6172 5099 149 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 55 55 WNW 6 13 5613 4950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 54 54 WNW 6 13 5357 4950 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 53 53 WNW 6 12 5100 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 WNW 5 11 4861 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 WNW 5 11 4632 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 WNW 5 10 4632 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 WNW 4 9 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 WNW 4 8 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 WNW 4 8 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 WNW 3 7 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 NW 3 7 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 3 8 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 NW 3 6 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 NW 3 6 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 49 NW 2 6 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 53 N 2 2 5100 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 56 NNE 3 3 6172 5099 149 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 57 59 NE 3 4 7109 6159 1209 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 58 59 NE 3 4 7109 6159 1209 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 59 60 NE 3 4 7540 6471 1521 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 58 58 NE 2 3 6799 5608 658 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 57 57 NE 1 1 6487 5354 404 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 54 54 NNW 1 1 5357 4950 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 53 53 WNW 2 4 5100 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 WNW 2 4 4861 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 WNW 2 5 4861 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 WNW 2 5 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 W 2 5 4577 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 WNW 2 5 4577 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]