Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 250314/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 25 25 SW 10 18 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 24 24 SW 12 19 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 25 25 SSW 13 20 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 25 25 SSW 17 20 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 25 25 SSW 20 21 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 25 25 S 23 25 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 25 25 S 21 25 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 25 25 S 21 25 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 25 25 S 19 24 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 26 26 S 17 23 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 27 27 S 13 21 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 29 29 SW 13 19 4847 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 31 32 SW 11 19 5772 4950 0 White 3
1 PM Fri 31 32 SW 12 19 5772 4950 0 White 3
2 PM Fri 32 33 W 14 25 5995 5160 210 White 4
3 PM Fri 32 33 W 13 21 5995 5160 210 White 4
4 PM Fri 32 33 W 13 23 5995 5160 210 White 4
5 PM Fri 32 32 WSW 14 29 5772 4950 0 White 3
6 PM Fri 31 31 WSW 14 28 5482 4950 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 31 31 WSW 16 26 5482 4950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 30 30 W 13 23 5165 4950 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 30 30 W 11 23 5165 4950 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 30 30 W 11 23 5165 4950 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 30 30 W 10 14 5165 4950 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 30 30 W 10 13 5165 4950 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 30 30 W 9 13 5165 4950 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 30 30 W 9 13 5165 4950 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 30 30 W 8 12 5165 4950 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 30 30 W 8 12 5165 4950 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 30 30 W 8 12 5165 4950 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 30 30 W 8 12 5165 4950 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 30 30 W 8 12 5165 4950 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 30 30 WSW 6 11 5165 4950 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 31 31 WSW 6 11 5482 4950 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 32 32 WSW 6 11 5772 4950 0 White 3
11 AM Sat 33 34 SSW 8 13 6217 5475 525 White 5
12 Noon Sat 34 35 SSW 8 13 6439 5786 836 White 6
1 PM Sat 35 36 SSW 8 13 6660 6096 1146 White 7
2 PM Sat 35 36 SSW 10 19 6660 6096 1146 White 7
3 PM Sat 36 37 SSW 10 19 6881 6403 1453 White 8
4 PM Sat 36 37 SSW 10 19 6881 6403 1453 White 8
5 PM Sat 36 36 SW 13 23 6660 6096 1146 White 7
6 PM Sat 36 36 SW 13 23 6660 6096 1146 White 7
7 PM Sat 35 35 SW 13 23 6439 5786 836 White 6
8 PM Sat 34 34 SW 16 24 6217 5475 525 White 5
9 PM Sat 35 35 SW 16 24 6439 5786 836 White 6
10 PM Sat 35 35 SW 16 24 6439 5786 836 White 6
11 PM Sat 36 36 SSW 17 25 6660 6096 1146 White 7
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 SSW 17 25 6660 6096 1146 White 7
1 AM Sun 35 35 SSW 17 25 6439 5786 836 White 6
2 AM Sun 35 35 SSW 18 27 6439 5786 836 White 6
3 AM Sun 35 35 SSW 18 27 6439 5786 836 White 6
4 AM Sun 36 36 SSW 18 27 6660 6096 1146 White 7
5 AM Sun 36 36 S 19 28 6660 6096 1146 White 7
6 AM Sun 37 37 S 19 28 6881 6403 1453 White 8
7 AM Sun 38 38 S 19 28 7102 6712 1762 White 9
8 AM Sun 38 38 S 23 33 7102 6712 1762 White 9
9 AM Sun 38 38 S 23 33 7102 6712 1762 White 9
10 AM Sun 37 37 S 23 33 6881 6403 1453 White 8
11 AM Sun 37 37 S 24 37 6881 6403 1453 White 8
12 Noon Sun 37 37 S 24 37 6881 6403 1453 White 8
1 PM Sun 38 38 S 24 37 7102 6712 1762 White 9
2 PM Sun 38 38 S 24 41 7102 6712 1762 White 9
3 PM Sun 38 38 S 24 41 7102 6712 1762 White 9
4 PM Sun 38 38 S 24 41 7102 6712 1762 White 9
5 PM Sun 38 38 SSW 27 41 7102 6712 1762 White 9
6 PM Sun 38 38 SSW 27 41 7102 6712 1762 White 9
7 PM Sun 39 39 SSW 27 41 7321 6952 2002 White 10
8 PM Sun 39 39 SSW 26 39 7321 6952 2002 White 10
9 PM Sun 39 39 SSW 26 39 7321 6952 2002 White 10
10 PM Sun 39 39 SSW 26 39 7321 6952 2002 White 10
11 PM Sun 38 38 SW 20 31 7102 6712 1762 White 9
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 SW 20 31 6881 6403 1453 White 8
1 AM Mon 36 36 SW 20 31 6660 6096 1146 White 7
2 AM Mon 36 36 WSW 16 24 6660 6096 1146 White 7
3 AM Mon 35 35 WSW 16 24 6439 5786 836 White 6
4 AM Mon 35 35 WSW 16 24 6439 5786 836 White 6
5 AM Mon 35 35 WSW 11 18 6439 5786 836 White 6
6 AM Mon 35 35 WSW 11 18 6439 5786 836 White 6
7 AM Mon 35 35 WSW 11 18 6439 5786 836 White 6
8 AM Mon 36 36 WSW 10 16 6660 6096 1146 White 7
9 AM Mon 36 36 WSW 10 16 6660 6096 1146 White 7
10 AM Mon 37 37 WSW 10 16 6881 6403 1453 White 8
11 AM Mon 37 37 SW 11 18 6881 6403 1453 White 8
12 Noon Mon 37 37 SW 11 18 6881 6403 1453 White 8
1 PM Mon 38 38 SW 11 18 7102 6712 1762 White 9
2 PM Mon 38 38 W 12 23 7102 6712 1762 White 9
3 PM Mon 37 37 W 12 23 6881 6403 1453 White 8
4 PM Mon 37 37 W 12 23 6881 6403 1453 White 8
5 PM Mon 36 36 WNW 16 24 6660 6096 1146 White 7
6 PM Mon 35 35 WNW 16 24 6439 5786 836 White 6
7 PM Mon 34 34 WNW 16 24 6217 5475 525 White 5
8 PM Mon 33 33 W 14 23 5995 5160 210 White 4
9 PM Mon 32 32 W 14 23 5772 4950 0 White 3
10 PM Mon 32 32 W 14 23 5772 4950 0 White 3
11 PM Mon 31 31 W 13 20 5482 4950 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 30 30 W 13 20 5165 4950 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 29 29 W 13 20 4847 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 28 28 W 13 20 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 28 28 W 13 20 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 27 27 W 13 20 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 27 27 W 13 19 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 27 27 W 13 19 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 28 28 W 13 19 4616 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 29 29 WNW 13 19 4847 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 32 32 WNW 13 19 5772 4950 0 White 3
10 AM Tue 35 37 WNW 13 19 6881 6403 1453 White 8
11 AM Tue 38 41 NNW 11 20 7740 7261 2311 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 40 44 NNW 11 20 8308 7724 2774 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 41 46 NNW 11 20 8848 8032 3082 White 17
2 PM Tue 41 46 NNW 10 19 8848 8032 3082 White 17
3 PM Tue 42 46 NNW 10 19 8848 8032 3082 White 17
4 PM Tue 43 45 NNW 10 19 8581 7878 2928 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 42 43 W 10 16 8049 7570 2620 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 41 41 W 10 16 7740 7261 2311 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 39 39 W 10 16 7321 6952 2002 White 10
8 PM Tue 36 36 W 5 11 6660 6096 1146 White 7
9 PM Tue 35 35 W 5 11 6439 5786 836 White 6
10 PM Tue 34 34 W 5 11 6217 5475 525 White 5
11 PM Tue 33 33 W 6 11 5995 5160 210 White 4
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 W 6 11 5772 4950 0 White 3
1 AM Wed 32 32 W 6 11 5772 4950 0 White 3
2 AM Wed 32 32 W 6 11 5772 4950 0 White 3
3 AM Wed 31 31 W 6 11 5482 4950 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 31 31 W 6 11 5482 4950 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 31 31 NNW 5 9 5482 4950 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 31 31 NNW 5 9 5482 4950 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 31 31 NNW 5 9 5482 4950 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 32 32 NNW 5 10 5772 4950 0 White 3
9 AM Wed 34 34 NNW 5 10 6217 5475 525 White 5
10 AM Wed 36 37 NNW 5 10 6881 6403 1453 White 8
11 AM Wed 38 39 E 10 16 7321 6952 2002 White 10
12 Noon Wed 39 41 E 10 16 7740 7261 2311 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 40 42 E 10 16 7895 7416 2466 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 40 42 SSE 13 24 7895 7416 2466 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 40 41 SSE 13 24 7740 7261 2311 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 40 41 SSE 13 24 7740 7261 2311 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 39 39 S 18 28 7321 6952 2002 White 10
6 PM Wed 38 38 S 18 28 7102 6712 1762 White 9
7 PM Wed 36 36 S 18 28 6660 6096 1146 White 7
8 PM Wed 35 35 SW 14 21 6439 5786 836 White 6
9 PM Wed 35 35 SW 14 21 6439 5786 836 White 6
10 PM Wed 35 35 SW 14 21 6439 5786 836 White 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]