Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 WSW 5 9 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 SW 8 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 SW 8 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 SW 8 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 WSW 6 10 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 WSW 6 10 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 WSW 6 10 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 SW 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 SW 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 35 35 SW 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 36 36 SW 10 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 36 36 SW 10 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 37 37 SW 10 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 36 36 SW 13 20 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 36 36 SW 13 20 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 36 36 SW 13 20 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 35 35 SSW 19 29 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 35 35 SSW 19 29 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 36 36 SSW 19 29 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 37 37 SSW 25 36 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 SSW 25 36 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 SSW 25 36 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 SSW 28 42 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 SSW 28 42 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 SSW 28 42 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 SW 28 42 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 SW 28 42 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 SW 28 42 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 34 34 WSW 27 41 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 33 WSW 27 41 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 WSW 27 41 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 31 31 W 23 35 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 29 29 W 23 35 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 30 30 W 23 35 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 31 31 W 16 25 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 31 31 W 16 25 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 30 30 W 16 25 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 30 30 WSW 14 23 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 29 29 WSW 14 23 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 29 29 WSW 14 23 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 29 29 W 17 25 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 28 28 W 17 25 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 28 28 W 17 25 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 27 27 W 14 25 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 27 27 W 14 25 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 27 27 W 14 25 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 27 27 WNW 12 18 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 27 27 WNW 12 18 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 27 27 WNW 12 18 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 26 26 W 10 16 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 26 26 W 10 16 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 25 25 W 10 16 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 25 25 W 9 13 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 24 24 W 9 13 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 24 24 W 9 13 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 24 24 WSW 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 25 25 WSW 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 26 26 WSW 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 27 28 SSW 6 10 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 28 29 SSW 6 10 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 29 30 SSW 6 10 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 29 30 SSW 8 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 29 29 SSW 8 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 28 28 SSW 8 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 28 28 S 9 13 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 28 28 S 9 13 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 28 28 S 9 13 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 28 28 SSW 10 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 29 29 SSW 10 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 29 29 SSW 10 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 30 30 SSW 11 17 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 30 30 SSW 11 17 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 30 30 SSW 11 17 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 30 30 SSW 14 21 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 30 30 SSW 14 21 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 30 30 SSW 14 21 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 S 13 20 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 S 13 20 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 S 13 20 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 S 13 19 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 30 30 S 13 19 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 29 29 S 13 19 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 28 28 S 11 18 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 28 28 S 11 18 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 29 29 S 11 18 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 29 29 S 8 16 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 29 29 S 8 16 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 28 28 S 8 16 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 28 28 SSW 9 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 29 29 SSW 9 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 30 30 SSW 9 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 31 31 SW 9 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 32 32 SW 9 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 32 32 SW 9 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 33 SW 9 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 SW 9 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 SW 9 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 SW 9 13 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 SW 9 13 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 SW 9 13 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 WSW 9 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 34 WSW 9 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 WSW 9 14 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 WSW 8 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 31 31 WSW 8 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 30 30 WSW 8 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 29 29 W 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 29 29 W 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 30 30 W 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 30 30 NW 5 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 30 30 NW 5 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 29 29 NW 5 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 29 29 N 5 10 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 30 30 N 5 10 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 30 30 N 5 10 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 31 31 NW 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 31 31 NW 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 NW 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 31 WNW 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 31 31 WNW 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 WNW 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 30 W 8 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 30 30 W 8 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 30 30 W 8 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 30 30 WNW 8 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 29 29 WNW 8 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 WNW 8 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 28 28 WNW 6 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 28 28 WNW 6 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 29 29 WNW 6 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 30 31 WNW 6 10 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 32 34 WNW 6 10 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 33 35 WNW 6 10 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 34 35 NW 4 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 34 35 NW 4 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 33 33 NW 4 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 32 32 WNW 5 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 32 32 WNW 5 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 31 31 WNW 5 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 30 30 WNW 8 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 30 30 WNW 8 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 31 31 WNW 8 12 4678 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 31 31 W 6 11 4678 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]