Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 W 6 11 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 W 5 10 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 W 5 9 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 W 5 9 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 W 4 8 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 W 4 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 W 3 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 W 2 4 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 WSW 2 4 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 65 WSW 2 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 67 SW 3 8 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 69 SW 4 11 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 71 SSW 6 17 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 67 71 SW 8 19 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 67 72 WSW 9 20 4430 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 68 72 WSW 11 24 4430 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 67 WSW 11 25 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 64 65 W 12 25 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 62 W 14 27 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 W 17 28 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 W 16 26 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 W 17 27 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 W 17 26 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 W 12 20 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 W 12 20 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 W 12 19 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 WNW 11 16 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 WNW 10 13 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 W 9 12 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 WNW 6 10 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 WNW 6 10 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 WNW 6 10 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 NNW 3 9 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 51 NNW 3 9 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 55 NNW 3 9 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 58 ENE 4 12 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 57 62 ENE 4 12 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 58 64 ENE 4 12 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 58 63 ENE 4 12 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 60 64 ENE 4 12 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 58 61 ENE 4 12 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 59 NE 3 9 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 58 NE 3 9 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 55 NE 3 9 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 2 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 WNW 2 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 WNW 2 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 6 12 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 WNW 6 12 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 WNW 6 12 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 WNW 12 20 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 WNW 12 20 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 WNW 12 20 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 WNW 11 18 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 WNW 11 18 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 WNW 11 18 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 WNW 8 13 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 WNW 8 13 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 62 WNW 8 13 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 67 NNE 5 12 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 65 70 NNE 5 12 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 66 72 NNE 5 12 4430 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 66 72 E 4 11 4430 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 67 72 E 4 11 4430 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 67 70 E 4 11 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 66 68 SE 3 8 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 64 SE 3 8 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 61 61 SE 3 8 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 58 W 1 4 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 W 1 4 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 W 1 4 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 W 2 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 W 2 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 W 2 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 W 3 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 W 3 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 W 3 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 WNW 2 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 WNW 2 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 WNW 2 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 WNW 1 4 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 60 WNW 1 4 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 64 WNW 1 4 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 68 ESE 3 8 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 70 ESE 3 8 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 66 72 ESE 3 8 4430 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 66 72 SE 4 11 4430 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 67 72 SE 4 11 4430 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 67 70 SE 4 11 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 66 67 SSE 4 10 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 63 63 SSE 4 10 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 61 SSE 4 10 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 SW 2 3 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 SW 2 3 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 SW 2 3 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 W 3 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 W 3 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 W 3 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 W 3 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 W 3 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 W 3 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 W 4 8 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 W 4 8 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 W 4 8 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 WNW 3 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 61 WNW 3 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 64 WNW 3 6 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 68 ESE 4 9 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 65 70 ESE 4 9 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 66 72 ESE 4 9 4430 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 72 SE 5 11 4430 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 67 72 SE 5 11 4430 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 67 70 SE 5 11 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 66 68 SE 4 9 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 64 SE 4 9 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 60 SE 4 9 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 WSW 2 3 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 WSW 2 3 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 WSW 2 3 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 W 3 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 W 3 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 W 3 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 W 3 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 W 3 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 W 3 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 WNW 3 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 WNW 3 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 WNW 3 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 NW 2 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 63 NW 2 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 66 NW 2 5 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 69 E 4 9 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 66 71 E 4 9 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 66 72 E 4 9 4430 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 66 71 ESE 5 12 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 67 71 ESE 5 12 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 67 70 ESE 5 12 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 67 68 SE 4 11 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 65 SE 4 11 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 62 SE 4 11 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 2 4 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 WSW 2 4 4397 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 WSW 2 4 4397 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]