Detailed Predictions for: Potato Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.34098, -122.69, 3400
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 40 38 WSW 5 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 37 WSW 6 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 36 WSW 6 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 35 WSW 6 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 35 WSW 5 8 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 35 WSW 5 8 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 33 WSW 5 8 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 33 SW 4 6 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 32 SW 4 6 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 39 37 SW 4 6 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 41 SW 8 12 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 43 SW 8 12 3049 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 45 43 SW 8 12 3049 3400 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 45 43 SSW 11 19 3049 3400 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 46 44 SSW 11 19 3506 3400 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 45 43 SSW 11 19 3049 3400 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 42 40 SSW 14 21 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 40 38 SSW 14 21 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 40 38 SSW 14 21 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 41 39 SSW 20 28 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 39 SSW 20 28 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 40 SSW 20 28 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 40 SSW 21 32 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 40 SSW 21 32 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 41 SSW 21 32 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 40 SW 20 29 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 39 SW 20 29 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 38 SW 20 29 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 37 WSW 17 27 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 35 WSW 17 27 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 34 WSW 17 27 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 35 33 W 13 23 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 32 W 13 23 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 32 W 13 23 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 36 34 W 10 19 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 38 36 W 10 19 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 39 37 W 10 19 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 39 37 WSW 12 19 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 38 36 WSW 12 19 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 37 35 WSW 12 19 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 35 33 WSW 11 20 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 34 32 WSW 11 20 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 33 31 WSW 11 20 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 31 W 10 20 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 33 31 W 10 20 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 32 30 W 10 20 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 30 WNW 8 14 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 31 29 WNW 8 14 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 29 WNW 8 14 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 30 28 W 5 13 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 29 27 W 5 13 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 28 26 W 5 13 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 28 26 WNW 4 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 26 24 WNW 4 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 26 24 WNW 4 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 26 24 NW 3 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 28 26 NW 3 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 32 30 NW 3 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 35 34 SSE 3 10 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 37 36 SSE 3 10 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 38 37 SSE 3 10 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 39 38 S 5 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 39 38 S 5 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 38 36 S 5 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 37 35 SSE 6 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 35 33 SSE 6 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 33 31 SSE 6 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 32 30 SSW 5 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 32 30 SSW 5 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 32 30 SSW 5 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 33 31 SSW 8 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 33 31 SSW 8 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 32 SSW 8 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 32 SSW 8 12 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 32 SSW 8 12 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 32 SSW 8 12 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 32 S 9 13 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 32 S 9 13 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 32 S 9 13 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 32 S 10 17 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 33 S 10 17 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 34 S 10 17 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 37 35 S 11 19 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 37 35 S 11 19 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 37 35 S 11 19 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 37 35 S 10 19 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 36 34 S 10 19 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 36 34 S 10 19 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 35 33 S 8 13 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 35 33 S 8 13 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 35 33 S 8 13 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 36 34 SSW 6 13 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 37 35 SSW 6 13 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 37 35 SSW 6 13 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 36 SSW 5 12 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 36 SSW 5 12 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 36 SSW 5 12 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 36 SSW 5 13 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 36 SSW 5 13 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 36 SSW 5 13 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 36 SW 5 12 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 35 SW 5 12 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 34 SW 5 12 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 33 SSW 5 10 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 34 SSW 5 10 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 35 SSW 5 10 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 38 36 SE 5 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 39 37 SE 5 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 39 37 SE 5 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 39 37 NE 6 12 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 38 36 NE 6 12 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 38 36 NE 6 12 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 37 35 NNE 5 10 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 36 34 NNE 5 10 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 36 34 NNE 5 10 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 36 34 N 5 8 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 33 N 5 8 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 32 N 5 8 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 31 NW 5 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 33 31 NW 5 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 31 NW 5 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 31 WNW 5 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 31 WNW 5 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 30 WNW 5 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 29 NW 5 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 28 NW 5 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 29 27 NW 5 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 29 27 NW 5 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 31 29 NW 5 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 35 33 NW 5 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 37 NNW 5 10 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 41 40 NNW 5 10 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 43 43 NNW 5 10 3049 3400 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 44 43 NW 5 11 3049 3400 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 44 43 NW 5 11 3049 3400 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 42 40 NW 5 11 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 41 39 NW 5 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 39 37 NW - 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 37 35 NW - 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 35 33 WNW - 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 35 33 WNW - 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 33 WNW - 9 2694 3400 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 35 33 WNW - 10 2694 3400 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]