Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 26 26 SSW 5 9 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 28 28 SW 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 27 27 SW 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 27 27 SW 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 SW 13 20 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 24 24 SW 13 20 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 23 23 SW 13 20 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 23 23 SW 10 16 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 25 25 SW 10 16 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 28 28 SW 10 16 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 29 29 SW 16 24 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 31 31 SW 16 24 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 32 32 SW 16 24 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 33 33 SW 19 29 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 33 33 SW 19 29 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 33 33 SW 19 29 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 31 31 SSW 16 24 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 31 31 SSW 16 24 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 30 30 SSW 16 24 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 31 31 SSW 17 26 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 31 31 SSW 17 26 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 32 32 SSW 17 26 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 31 31 SSW 19 29 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 SSW 19 29 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 SSW 19 29 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 31 31 SSW 17 26 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 30 30 SSW 17 26 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 30 30 SSW 17 26 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 30 30 WSW 14 23 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 27 27 WSW 14 23 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 27 27 WSW 14 23 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 26 26 WSW 14 23 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 25 25 WSW 14 23 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 25 25 WSW 14 23 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 25 25 WSW 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 25 25 WSW 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 26 26 WSW 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 26 26 WSW 12 19 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 26 26 WSW 12 19 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 25 25 WSW 12 19 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 24 24 WSW 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 23 23 WSW 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 22 22 WSW 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 21 21 SW 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 20 20 SW 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 19 19 SW 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 18 18 WSW 10 16 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 18 18 WSW 10 16 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 17 17 WSW 10 16 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 17 17 SW 10 16 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 15 15 SW 10 16 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 15 15 SW 10 16 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 15 15 SW 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 15 15 SW 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 14 14 SW 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 14 14 SSW 9 13 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 15 15 SSW 9 13 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 17 17 SSW 9 13 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 19 19 SSW 10 16 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 21 21 SSW 10 16 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 22 22 SSW 10 16 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 23 23 S 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 23 23 S 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 23 23 S 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 22 22 S 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 21 21 S 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 21 21 S 11 17 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 20 20 S 12 19 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 20 20 S 12 19 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 20 20 S 12 19 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 20 20 S 14 23 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 20 20 S 14 23 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 20 20 S 14 23 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 20 20 S 14 23 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 20 20 S 14 23 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 20 20 S 14 23 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 20 20 S 16 24 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 20 20 S 16 24 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 20 20 S 16 24 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 20 20 S 16 24 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 22 22 S 16 24 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 24 24 S 16 24 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 26 26 S 12 18 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 27 27 S 12 18 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 28 28 S 12 18 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 29 29 S 12 18 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 29 29 S 12 18 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 29 29 S 12 18 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 28 28 SE 9 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 27 27 SE 9 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 27 27 SE 9 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 26 26 SE 9 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 26 26 SE 9 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 26 26 SE 9 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 26 26 SE 8 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 26 26 SE 8 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 25 25 SE 8 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 25 25 SE 8 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 25 25 SE 8 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 25 25 SE 8 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 24 24 SE 5 9 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 23 23 SE 5 9 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 22 22 SE 5 9 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 22 22 SE 5 9 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 23 23 SE 5 9 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 24 24 SE 5 9 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 26 26 SSW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 27 27 SSW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 28 28 SSW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 28 28 SSW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 28 28 SSW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 27 27 SSW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 26 26 SW 6 10 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 24 24 SW 6 10 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 22 22 SW 6 10 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 21 21 SW 6 10 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 21 21 SW 6 10 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 21 21 SW 6 10 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 21 21 SW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 21 21 SW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 21 21 SW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 21 21 SW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 21 21 SW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 20 20 SW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 19 19 SW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 17 17 SW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 15 15 SW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 15 15 SW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 15 15 SW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 19 19 SW 8 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 21 21 SW 8 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 23 23 SW 8 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 25 25 SW 8 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 26 27 SW 8 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 26 26 SW 8 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 25 25 SW 8 12 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 23 23 WSW 6 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 22 22 WSW 6 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 20 20 WSW 6 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 19 19 WSW 6 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 18 18 WSW 6 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 18 18 WSW 6 11 4967 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 18 18 SW 6 10 4967 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]