Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 SSW 4 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 SSW 4 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 SSW 4 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 SSW 5 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 SSW 5 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 SSW 5 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 SSW 5 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 S 5 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 SSW 5 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 59 SW 8 12 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 65 SW 10 16 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 70 SW 10 16 7759 7200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 70 74 SW 12 19 11587 8270 1070 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 71 74 SW 13 20 11587 8270 1070 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 72 74 WSW 13 20 11587 8270 1070 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 72 75 WSW 14 23 11720 10398 3198 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 72 74 WSW 14 23 11587 8270 1070 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 70 71 WSW 16 24 9731 7200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 17 26 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 14 23 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 13 20 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 12 19 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 W 13 20 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 W 12 19 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 WNW 12 19 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 W 10 16 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 W 9 13 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 W 8 12 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 W 6 10 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 W 4 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 W 4 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 W 4 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 W 5 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 44 W 5 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 48 W 5 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 53 W 8 12 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 57 W 8 12 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 55 60 W 8 12 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 56 61 WNW 8 12 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 60 WNW 8 12 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 57 60 WNW 8 12 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 57 58 WNW 6 10 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 55 WNW 6 10 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 WNW 6 10 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 NNW 3 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 NNW 3 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 NNW 3 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 N 5 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 N 5 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 N 5 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 NE 3 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 NE 3 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 NE 3 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 NE 3 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 NE 3 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 NE 3 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 4 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 46 ENE 4 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 52 ENE 4 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 59 E 5 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 64 E 5 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 67 E 5 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 63 68 E 4 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 65 69 E 4 8 5573 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 65 68 E 4 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 65 66 N 3 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 62 N 3 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 59 N 3 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 N 2 5 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 N 2 5 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 N 2 5 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 NE 2 5 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NE 2 5 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 NE 2 5 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 NE 2 5 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 NE 2 5 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 NE 2 5 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 ENE 2 5 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 ENE 2 5 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 ENE 2 5 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 E 3 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 52 E 3 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 59 E 3 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 66 SW 2 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 70 SW 2 6 7759 7200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 67 73 SW 2 6 11011 7647 447 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 69 74 W 5 12 11587 8270 1070 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 70 74 W 5 12 11587 8270 1070 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 70 73 W 5 12 11011 7647 447 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 69 70 WNW 4 12 7759 7200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 65 65 WNW 4 12 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 61 WNW 4 12 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 58 N 2 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 N 2 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 N 2 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 NNE 3 10 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NNE 3 10 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 NNE 3 10 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 NE 3 10 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 NE 3 10 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 NE 3 10 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 NE 3 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 NE 3 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 NE 3 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 NE 5 11 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 52 NE 5 11 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 59 NE 5 11 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 67 ENE 4 10 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 71 ENE 4 10 9731 7200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 69 74 ENE 4 10 11587 8270 1070 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 70 75 E 5 11 11720 10398 3198 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 71 75 E 5 11 11720 10398 3198 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 71 74 E 5 11 11587 8270 1070 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 69 70 E 4 11 7759 7200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 66 66 E 4 11 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 62 E 4 11 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 NE 3 10 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 NE 3 10 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 NE 3 10 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 ENE 3 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 ENE 3 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 ENE 3 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 ENE 3 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 ENE 3 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 ENE 3 9 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 ENE 2 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 ENE 2 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 ENE 2 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 ESE 2 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 57 ESE 2 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 63 ESE 2 6 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 69 S 3 8 5573 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 69 73 S 3 8 11011 7647 447 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 72 77 S 3 8 11985 11562 4362 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 73 78 SSW 5 12 12118 11694 4494 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 74 78 SSW 5 12 12118 11694 4494 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 74 76 SSW 5 12 11852 10918 3718 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 73 74 SW 4 12 11587 8270 1070 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 70 70 SW 4 12 7759 7200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 66 66 SW 4 12 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 WSW 2 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 WSW 2 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 WSW 2 8 5569 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]