Detailed Predictions for: Sugar Hill
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 41.8064, -120.329, 7200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 S 5 9 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 SSW 4 8 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 SSW 4 8 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 SSW 4 8 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 SW 3 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 SW 3 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 SW 3 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 SW 5 9 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 SW 5 9 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 33 33 SW 5 9 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 34 34 NNW 2 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 35 35 NNW 2 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 36 36 NNW 2 5 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 36 36 NNW 3 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 37 37 NNW 3 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 36 36 NNW 3 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 35 35 NNE 3 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 34 34 NNE 3 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 32 32 NNE 3 6 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 32 32 E 4 8 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 31 31 E 4 8 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 31 31 E 4 8 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 31 31 E 5 9 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 31 31 E 5 9 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 E 5 9 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 31 31 E 6 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 E 6 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 29 29 E 6 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 29 29 E 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 29 29 E 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 E 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 28 28 ENE 10 16 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 30 30 ENE 10 16 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 31 31 ENE 10 16 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 33 33 E 12 19 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 33 34 E 12 19 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 34 35 E 12 19 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 35 36 E 11 17 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 35 35 E 11 17 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 35 35 E 11 17 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 34 34 E 12 19 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 32 32 E 12 19 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 31 31 E 12 19 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 29 29 E 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 28 28 E 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 27 27 E 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 27 27 E 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 26 26 E 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 26 26 E 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 26 26 E 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 26 26 E 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 26 26 E 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 E 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 25 25 E 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 25 25 E 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 26 26 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 27 27 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 29 29 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 31 31 ESE 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 34 35 ESE 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 36 37 ESE 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 37 37 SE 10 16 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 37 37 SE 10 16 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 35 35 SE 10 16 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 34 34 SE 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 33 33 SE 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 32 32 SE 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 31 31 SE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 30 30 SE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 29 29 SE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 29 29 SE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 29 29 SE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 29 29 SE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 29 29 SE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 29 SE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 29 29 SE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 SE 6 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 SE 6 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 28 28 SE 6 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 SE 6 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 SE 6 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 32 32 SE 6 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 34 34 SE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 36 36 SE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 37 37 SE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 38 38 SSE 8 11 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 39 39 SSE 8 11 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 38 38 SSE 8 11 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 37 37 SSE 6 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 36 36 SSE 6 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 34 34 SSE 6 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 33 SE 8 11 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 SE 8 11 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 32 32 SE 8 11 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 32 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 31 31 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 30 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 ESE 9 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 31 31 ESE 9 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 ESE 9 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 35 35 ESE 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 37 37 ESE 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 39 39 ESE 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 40 40 ESE 9 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 40 40 ESE 9 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 39 39 ESE 9 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 37 37 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 36 36 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 34 34 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 33 33 ESE 9 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 32 32 ESE 9 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 32 32 ESE 9 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 31 31 ESE 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 31 31 ESE 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 ESE 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 30 30 ESE 9 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 30 30 ESE 9 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 30 30 ESE 9 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 29 29 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 30 30 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 31 31 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 33 33 ESE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 35 35 SE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 38 39 SE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 40 41 SE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 42 43 SSE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 42 42 SSE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 41 41 SSE 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 39 39 SE 6 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 37 37 SE 6 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 35 35 SE 6 10 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 33 33 E 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 32 32 E 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 32 32 E 8 12 5722 7200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 32 32 E 9 13 5722 7200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]