Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.509442, -122.937570, 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 NNW 5 8 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 NNW 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 NNW 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 NNW 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 NNW 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 NNW 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 NNW 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 NNW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 43 NNW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 45 NNW 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 46 NW 4 6 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 47 48 NW 4 6 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 48 49 NW 4 6 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 49 50 W 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 50 51 W 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 48 48 W 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 48 48 N 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 46 46 N 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 44 44 N 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 43 43 N 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 43 N 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 N 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 N 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 N 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 N 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 N 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 N 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 N 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 N 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 N 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 N 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 N 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 N 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 45 N 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 48 NNE 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 50 NNE 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 51 NNE 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 51 52 NNE 8 12 4657 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 51 52 NNE 8 12 4657 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 50 50 NNE 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 49 49 N 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 47 47 N 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 46 N 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 44 44 NNE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 NNE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 NNE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 NNE 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 NNE 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 NNE 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 NNE 9 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 NNE 9 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 NNE 9 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 NNE 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 NNE 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 NNE 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 NNE 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 NNE 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 NNE 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 45 ENE 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 47 48 ENE 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 49 50 ENE 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 51 WSW 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 50 50 WSW 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 49 49 WSW 6 10 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 48 48 WSW 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 46 46 WSW 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 45 45 WSW 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 NE 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 42 42 NE 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 NE 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 NE 4 6 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 NE 4 6 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 NE 4 6 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 NE 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 NE 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 NE 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 ENE 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 ENE 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 ENE 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 ENE 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 ENE 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 ENE 5 9 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 43 E 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 44 E 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 45 45 E 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 46 46 ESE 9 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 46 46 ESE 9 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 46 46 ESE 9 13 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 45 45 E 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 E 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 42 42 E 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 E 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 E 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 E 8 12 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 E 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 E 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 E 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 E 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 E 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 E 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 ENE 10 16 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 44 E 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 45 E 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 46 46 E 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 47 47 E 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 47 47 E 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 46 46 E 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 45 45 ENE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 ENE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 ENE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 41 ENE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 41 41 ENE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 41 41 ENE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 NE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 NE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 NE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 NE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 NE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 NE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 NE 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 NE 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 NE 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 NE 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 NE 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 43 NE 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 44 E 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 45 46 E 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 48 E 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 49 E 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 48 E 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 48 E 12 19 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 47 47 E 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 45 45 E 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 43 E 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 42 E 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 42 E 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 E 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 ENE 11 17 4577 5810 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]