Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.509442, -122.937570, 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 WNW 5 6 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 WNW 5 6 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 WNW 6 6 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 WNW 6 6 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 WNW 6 6 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 61 WNW 9 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 WNW 9 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 WNW 9 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 W 9 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 W 9 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 66 W 9 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 68 WSW 12 13 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 70 WSW 12 13 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 66 71 WSW 12 13 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 66 70 W 18 24 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 65 68 W 18 24 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 66 68 W 18 24 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 64 WNW 21 27 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 61 WNW 21 27 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 WNW 21 27 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 NW 20 27 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 NW 20 27 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 NW 20 27 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 NW 16 24 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 NW 16 24 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 NW 16 24 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 NW 14 25 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 NW 14 25 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 NW 14 25 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 NNW 18 26 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 NNW 18 26 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 NNW 18 26 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 NNW 17 19 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 49 NNW 17 19 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 54 NNW 17 19 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 58 NNW 9 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 61 NNW 9 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 58 64 NNW 9 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 59 65 NW 12 17 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 60 65 NW 12 17 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 64 NW 12 17 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 61 63 NNW 9 12 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 59 NNW 9 12 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 NNW 9 12 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 WNW 2 4 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 WNW 2 4 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 2 4 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 NNW 5 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 NNW 5 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 NNW 5 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NNW 5 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NNW 5 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 NNW 5 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 N 9 11 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 N 9 11 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 N 9 11 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 NNW 6 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 56 NNW 6 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 62 NNW 6 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 64 68 SW 3 5 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 66 71 SW 3 5 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 67 73 SW 3 5 4813 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 68 74 WSW 5 10 5207 5810 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 69 74 WSW 5 10 5207 5810 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 69 72 WSW 5 10 4438 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 68 70 WSW 5 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 66 66 WSW 5 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 63 63 WSW 5 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 60 S 0 2 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 S 0 2 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 S 0 2 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 WNW 3 5 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 WNW 3 5 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 WNW 3 5 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 NNW 3 5 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 NNW 3 5 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 NNW 3 5 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 N 5 8 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 N 5 8 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 N 5 8 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 NE 5 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 62 NE 5 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 66 NE 5 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 71 SSW 4 6 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 69 74 SSW 4 6 5207 5810 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 70 76 SSW 4 6 8030 5810 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 70 76 SW 6 11 8030 5810 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 71 76 SW 6 11 8030 5810 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 71 74 SW 6 11 5207 5810 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 69 70 SW 4 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 66 66 SW 4 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 63 63 SW 4 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 61 S 0 1 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 S 0 1 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 S 0 1 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 N 1 4 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 N 1 4 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 N 1 4 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 NNE 3 5 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 NNE 3 5 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 NNE 3 5 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 NE 4 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 NE 4 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 NE 4 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 NE 5 11 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 NE 5 11 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 66 NE 5 11 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 71 SSE 4 8 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 69 74 SSE 4 8 5207 5810 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 70 76 SSE 4 8 8030 5810 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 70 76 S 5 10 8030 5810 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 70 75 S 5 10 6340 5810 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 70 73 S 5 10 4813 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 69 71 S 3 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 66 66 S 3 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 S 3 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 60 S 0 1 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 S 0 1 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 S 0 1 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 N 1 4 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 N 1 4 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 N 1 4 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 NE 2 5 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 NE 2 5 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 NE 2 5 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 NE 3 8 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 NE 3 8 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 NE 3 8 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 ENE 4 8 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 62 ENE 4 8 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 66 ENE 4 8 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 67 71 SSE 4 9 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 69 74 SSE 4 9 5207 5810 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 70 76 SSE 4 9 8030 5810 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 70 75 SSW 5 12 6340 5810 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 70 74 SSW 5 12 5207 5810 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 70 73 SSW 5 12 4813 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 69 70 SW 4 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 67 67 SW 4 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 63 63 SW 4 10 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 W 1 3 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 W 1 3 4397 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 W 1 3 4397 5810 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]