Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.011555, -119.37, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 43 38 ENE 3 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 38 E 3 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 37 E 2 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 37 E 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 37 E 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 36 E 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 36 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 36 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 38 E 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 41 SSE 2 6 3991 4000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 47 43 S 3 9 4239 4000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 48 45 S 4 10 4449 4102 102 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 50 47 S 5 10 4576 4370 370 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 48 45 SSW 5 11 4449 4102 102 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 48 44 SSW 4 10 4373 4000 0 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 48 43 SSW 4 8 4239 4000 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 45 40 SSW 2 6 3793 4000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 42 37 SSE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 41 36 ESE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 42 37 E 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 36 ESE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 37 ESE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 36 ESE 2 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 35 ESE 2 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 35 E 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 35 E 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 35 ESE 2 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 35 ESE 2 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 35 ESE 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 35 ESE 3 9 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 35 SE 4 11 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 34 ESE 5 13 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 34 SE 5 13 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 33 SE 8 14 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 33 SE 10 21 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 39 34 SE 10 21 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 39 34 SE 10 21 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 39 34 SE 10 20 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 39 34 SE 10 20 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 38 33 SE 10 20 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 38 33 SE 8 18 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 38 33 SE 8 18 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 37 32 SE 8 18 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 32 S 6 18 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 37 32 S 6 18 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 31 S 6 18 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 31 NNW 3 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 35 30 NNW 3 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 35 30 NNW 3 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 34 29 ENE 2 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 33 28 ENE 2 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 32 27 ENE 2 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 31 26 ENE 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 25 ENE 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 25 ENE 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 25 ENE 3 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 27 ENE 3 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 35 30 ENE 3 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 37 33 SW 2 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 39 36 SW 2 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 40 37 SW 2 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 40 36 WSW 3 9 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 40 36 WSW 3 9 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 39 34 WSW 3 9 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 38 33 WSW 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 37 32 WSW 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 36 31 WSW 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 36 31 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 36 31 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 37 32 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 33 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 33 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 34 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 39 34 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 34 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 35 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 35 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 35 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 34 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 34 E 3 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 35 E 3 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 36 E 3 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 37 SSE 4 9 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 42 38 SSE 4 9 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 38 SSE 4 9 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 42 38 S 5 13 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 41 36 S 5 13 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 41 36 S 5 13 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 40 35 SSE 4 10 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 40 35 SSE 4 10 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 40 35 SSE 4 10 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 36 SE 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 37 SE 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 43 38 SE 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 39 SE 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 39 SE 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 39 SE 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 39 SE 2 9 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 39 SE 2 9 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 39 SE 2 9 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 39 ESE 2 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 38 ESE 2 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 38 ESE 2 8 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 37 SSE 2 9 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 36 SSE 2 9 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 35 SSE 2 9 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 35 SSE 5 12 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 40 35 SSE 5 12 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 41 36 SSE 5 12 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 41 36 SSW 5 14 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 41 36 SSW 5 14 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 40 35 SSW 5 14 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 39 34 S 3 11 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 38 33 S 3 11 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 38 33 S 3 11 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 38 33 E 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 38 33 E 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 39 34 E 2 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 34 NE 1 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 39 34 NE 1 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 33 NE 1 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 33 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 33 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 32 ENE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 32 NE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 31 NE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 30 NE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 29 NE 2 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 30 NE 2 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 31 NE 2 5 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 34 SW 3 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 39 35 SW 3 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 40 36 SW 3 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 40 36 WSW 5 10 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 40 36 WSW 5 10 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 39 34 WSW 5 10 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 38 33 W 3 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 37 32 W 3 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 36 31 W 3 6 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 35 30 NNE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 35 30 NNE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 36 31 NNE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 31 NE 2 4 3399 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]