Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.011555, -119.37, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 73 68 NE 4 8 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 72 67 NE 4 6 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 71 66 ENE 3 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 65 ENE 3 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 64 ENE 3 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 63 E 3 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 63 E 3 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 62 E 3 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 64 ESE 3 6 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 69 SSE 3 8 3677 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 78 76 S 3 9 4342 4127 127 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 80 80 S 4 10 6646 4496 496 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 81 82 SSW 4 12 10022 5249 1249 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 83 84 SSW 4 13 11335 8016 4016 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 84 85 SW 5 13 11621 9864 5864 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 84 84 WSW 4 13 11335 8016 4016 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 86 84 WSW 4 12 11335 8016 4016 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 84 80 W 4 12 6646 4496 496 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 84 79 W 4 12 5266 4340 340 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 81 76 WNW 4 10 4342 4127 127 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 77 72 NNW 4 11 3995 4000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 73 68 N 4 9 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 66 NNE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 65 W 2 4 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 64 NNE 1 3 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 63 NE 1 3 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 62 ESE 1 3 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 60 E 1 3 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 59 E 1 3 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 58 ESE 1 4 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 57 ESE 1 4 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 56 ESE 1 4 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 56 SSW 2 6 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 61 SSW 2 6 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 66 SSW 2 6 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 68 SW 4 11 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 71 72 SW 4 11 3995 4000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 72 73 SW 4 11 4128 4000 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 74 75 WSW 5 14 4263 4000 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 75 75 WSW 5 14 4263 4000 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 76 74 WSW 5 14 4188 4000 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 76 72 W 5 14 3995 4000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 77 72 W 5 14 3995 4000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 74 69 W 5 14 3677 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 71 66 NNW 3 6 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 63 NNW 3 6 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 61 NNW 3 6 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 60 NE 1 2 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 59 NE 1 2 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 58 NE 1 2 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 58 ENE 1 3 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 57 ENE 1 3 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 57 ENE 1 3 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 56 ENE 1 3 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 55 ENE 1 3 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 54 ENE 1 3 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 54 ESE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 58 ESE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 64 ESE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 70 70 SW 3 9 3761 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 73 74 SW 3 9 4188 4000 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 74 75 SW 3 9 4263 4000 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 76 77 WSW 4 11 4504 4188 188 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 77 77 WSW 4 11 4504 4188 188 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 78 76 WSW 4 11 4342 4127 127 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 77 73 WSW 4 10 4128 4000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 76 71 WSW 4 10 3846 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 73 68 WSW 4 10 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 70 65 NNE 2 4 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 68 63 NNE 2 4 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 67 62 NNE 2 4 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 61 ENE 3 6 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 60 ENE 3 6 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 60 ENE 3 6 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 59 ENE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 58 ENE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 57 ENE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 56 ENE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 56 ENE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 57 ENE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 58 ENE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 62 ENE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 68 ENE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 74 74 SW 4 10 4188 4000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 76 77 SW 4 10 4504 4188 188 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 78 79 SW 4 10 5266 4340 340 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 79 80 WSW 4 12 6646 4496 496 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 80 79 WSW 4 12 5266 4340 340 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 80 78 WSW 4 12 4872 4262 262 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 79 75 WSW 3 10 4263 4000 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 77 72 WSW 3 10 3995 4000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 74 69 WSW 3 10 3677 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 72 67 NE 3 9 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 70 65 NE 3 9 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 68 63 NE 3 9 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 61 ENE 4 10 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 60 ENE 4 10 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 60 ENE 4 10 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 60 ENE 3 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 59 ENE 3 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 58 ENE 3 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 58 ENE 2 4 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 58 ENE 2 4 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 58 ENE 2 4 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 59 E 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 63 E 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 69 E 2 5 3677 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 74 74 SW 3 9 4188 4000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 76 77 SW 3 9 4504 4188 188 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 77 78 SW 3 9 4872 4262 262 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 78 79 SW 4 11 5266 4340 340 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 79 79 SW 4 11 5266 4340 340 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 80 78 SW 4 11 4872 4262 262 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 80 76 WSW 3 10 4342 4127 127 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 78 73 WSW 3 10 4128 4000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 76 71 WSW 3 10 3846 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 73 68 NE 5 11 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 71 66 NE 5 11 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 64 NE 5 11 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 63 ENE 3 8 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 62 ENE 3 8 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 61 ENE 3 8 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 61 ENE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 60 ENE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 60 ENE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 60 ENE 2 4 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 60 ENE 2 4 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 60 ENE 2 4 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 61 ESE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 65 ESE 2 5 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 71 ESE 2 5 3846 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 77 76 SW 3 9 4342 4127 127 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 79 80 SW 3 9 6646 4496 496 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 80 81 SW 3 9 8068 4861 861 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 81 82 WSW 4 11 10022 5249 1249 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 82 81 WSW 4 11 8068 4861 861 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 82 80 WSW 4 11 6646 4496 496 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 82 78 WSW 4 10 4872 4262 262 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 80 75 WSW 4 10 4263 4000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 78 73 WSW 4 10 4128 4000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 75 70 NNE 3 8 3761 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 73 68 NNE 3 8 3652 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 71 66 NNE 3 8 3652 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]