Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.011555, -119.37, 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 36 31 E 5 10 2507 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 33 ESE 9 13 2554 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 32 ESE 10 13 2507 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 32 ESE 8 11 2507 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 31 ESE 9 12 2507 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 32 ESE 10 11 2507 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 33 ESE 9 12 2554 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 32 ESE 10 11 2507 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 34 SE 10 13 3402 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 34 SE 8 11 3402 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 36 SE 8 11 4417 4000 0 White 1
11 AM Sun 43 39 SE 8 11 5092 4548 548 White 4
12 Noon Sun 44 40 SE 8 11 5313 4920 920 White 5
1 PM Sun 45 41 SSE 8 12 5532 5368 1368 White 6
2 PM Sun 45 41 S 8 11 5532 5368 1368 White 6
3 PM Sun 46 42 SSW 8 12 5751 5751 1751 White 7
4 PM Sun 47 43 SW 6 10 5969 5969 1969 White 8
5 PM Sun 46 41 W 5 9 5532 5368 1368 White 6
6 PM Sun 46 41 W 5 6 5532 5368 1368 White 6
7 PM Sun 46 41 NNW 5 5 5532 5368 1368 White 6
8 PM Sun 43 38 NNW 5 5 4872 4180 180 White 3
9 PM Sun 43 38 N 4 5 4872 4180 180 White 3
10 PM Sun 42 37 N 5 5 4648 4000 0 White 2
11 PM Sun 41 36 NNW 5 5 4417 4000 0 White 1
12 Midnight Mon 41 36 N 4 5 4417 4000 0 White 1
1 AM Mon 40 35 NE 3 4 4192 4000 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 39 34 NNE 4 4 3402 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 33 NNE 3 3 2554 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 33 NNE 4 4 2554 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 32 N 4 4 2507 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 33 NNE 4 4 2554 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 33 NNE 3 4 2554 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 36 WNW 2 3 4417 4000 0 White 1
9 AM Mon 44 40 WSW 3 4 5313 4920 920 White 5
10 AM Mon 47 43 WSW 4 5 5969 5969 1969 White 8
11 AM Mon 49 46 WSW 5 8 6617 6617 2617 White 11
12 Noon Mon 50 48 WSW 5 8 7047 7047 3047 White 13
1 PM Mon 51 49 WSW 5 8 7261 7261 3261 White 14
2 PM Mon 52 50 WSW 6 11 7474 7474 3474 White 15
3 PM Mon 53 51 WSW 6 11 7688 7688 3688 White 16
4 PM Mon 54 51 WSW 6 11 7688 7688 3688 White 16
5 PM Mon 54 50 W 8 11 7474 7474 3474 White 15
6 PM Mon 53 48 W 8 11 7047 7047 3047 White 13
7 PM Mon 52 47 W 8 11 6832 6832 2832 White 12
8 PM Mon 51 46 NNW 5 5 6617 6617 2617 White 11
9 PM Mon 50 45 NNW 5 5 6402 6402 2402 White 10
10 PM Mon 48 43 NNW 5 5 5969 5969 1969 White 8
11 PM Mon 47 42 NE 4 5 5751 5751 1751 White 7
12 Midnight Tue 46 41 NE 4 5 5532 5368 1368 White 6
1 AM Tue 45 40 NE 4 5 5313 4920 920 White 5
2 AM Tue 45 40 ENE 5 5 5313 4920 920 White 5
3 AM Tue 44 39 ENE 5 5 5092 4548 548 White 4
4 AM Tue 44 39 ENE 5 5 5092 4548 548 White 4
5 AM Tue 44 39 ENE 5 5 5092 4548 548 White 4
6 AM Tue 45 40 ENE 5 5 5313 4920 920 White 5
7 AM Tue 46 41 ENE 5 5 5532 5368 1368 White 6
8 AM Tue 48 44 E 5 5 6186 6186 2186 White 9
9 AM Tue 51 48 E 5 5 7047 7047 3047 White 13
10 AM Tue 55 54 E 5 5 8323 8323 4323 White 19
11 AM Tue 58 59 WSW 5 8 9369 9369 5369 White 24
12 Noon Tue 60 62 WSW 5 8 10009 10009 6009 White 27
1 PM Tue 62 64 WSW 5 8 10419 10419 6419 White 29
2 PM Tue 63 64 WSW 6 10 10419 10419 6419 White 29
3 PM Tue 64 64 WSW 6 10 10419 10419 6419 White 29
4 PM Tue 65 63 WSW 6 10 10214 10214 6214 White 28
5 PM Tue 65 61 W 8 12 9803 9803 5803 White 26
6 PM Tue 64 59 W 8 12 9369 9369 5369 White 24
7 PM Tue 61 56 W 8 12 8743 8743 4743 White 21
8 PM Tue 59 54 NNW 5 8 8323 8323 4323 White 19
9 PM Tue 57 52 NNW 5 8 7900 7900 3900 White 17
10 PM Tue 55 50 NNW 5 8 7474 7474 3474 White 15
11 PM Tue 54 49 NE 5 6 7261 7261 3261 White 14
12 Midnight Wed 53 48 NE 5 6 7047 7047 3047 White 13
1 AM Wed 53 48 NE 5 6 7047 7047 3047 White 13
2 AM Wed 52 47 NE 5 6 6832 6832 2832 White 12
3 AM Wed 51 46 NE 5 6 6617 6617 2617 White 11
4 AM Wed 50 45 NE 5 6 6402 6402 2402 White 10
5 AM Wed 50 45 NE 5 8 6402 6402 2402 White 10
6 AM Wed 50 45 NE 5 8 6402 6402 2402 White 10
7 AM Wed 51 46 NE 5 8 6617 6617 2617 White 11
8 AM Wed 53 48 NE 3 6 7047 7047 3047 White 13
9 AM Wed 56 52 NE 3 6 7900 7900 3900 White 17
10 AM Wed 60 58 NE 3 6 9161 9161 5161 White 23
11 AM Wed 63 63 WSW 5 10 10214 10214 6214 White 28
12 Noon Wed 65 66 WSW 5 10 10826 10826 6826 White 31
1 PM Wed 66 67 WSW 5 10 11029 11029 7029 White 32
2 PM Wed 67 66 WSW 9 13 10826 10826 6826 White 31
3 PM Wed 68 66 WSW 9 13 10826 10826 6826 White 31
4 PM Wed 69 66 WSW 9 13 10826 10826 6826 White 31
5 PM Wed 69 65 W 8 12 10621 10621 6621 White 30
6 PM Wed 68 63 W 8 12 10214 10214 6214 White 28
7 PM Wed 65 60 W 8 12 9575 9575 5575 White 25
8 PM Wed 63 58 NNW 6 9 9161 9161 5161 White 23
9 PM Wed 61 56 NNW 6 9 8743 8743 4743 White 21
10 PM Wed 59 54 NNW 6 9 8323 8323 4323 White 19
11 PM Wed 58 53 NE 5 6 8111 8111 4111 White 18
12 Midnight Thu 57 52 NE 5 6 7900 7900 3900 White 17
1 AM Thu 56 51 NE 5 6 7688 7688 3688 White 16
2 AM Thu 56 51 NE 5 8 7688 7688 3688 White 16
3 AM Thu 55 50 NE 5 8 7474 7474 3474 White 15
4 AM Thu 55 50 NE 5 8 7474 7474 3474 White 15
5 AM Thu 55 50 ENE 5 8 7474 7474 3474 White 15
6 AM Thu 55 50 ENE 5 8 7474 7474 3474 White 15
7 AM Thu 56 51 ENE 5 8 7688 7688 3688 White 16
8 AM Thu 58 53 NE 4 6 8111 8111 4111 White 18
9 AM Thu 61 57 NE 4 6 8952 8952 4952 White 22
10 AM Thu 64 61 NE 4 6 9803 9803 5803 White 26
11 AM Thu 67 65 SW 6 10 10621 10621 6621 White 30
12 Noon Thu 69 68 SW 6 10 11230 11230 7230 White 33
1 PM Thu 70 69 SW 6 10 11431 11431 7431 White 34
2 PM Thu 71 70 WSW 8 12 11633 11633 7633 White 35
3 PM Thu 72 70 WSW 8 12 11633 11633 7633 White 35
4 PM Thu 72 69 WSW 8 12 11431 11431 7431 White 34
5 PM Thu 72 68 W 9 12 11230 11230 7230 White 33
6 PM Thu 70 65 W 9 12 10621 10621 6621 White 30
7 PM Thu 68 63 W 9 12 10214 10214 6214 White 28
8 PM Thu 65 60 N 5 8 9575 9575 5575 White 25
9 PM Thu 63 58 N 5 8 9161 9161 5161 White 23
10 PM Thu 61 56 N 5 8 8743 8743 4743 White 21
11 PM Thu 60 55 NE 5 8 8535 8535 4535 White 20
12 Midnight Fri 59 54 NE 5 8 8323 8323 4323 White 19
1 AM Fri 58 53 NE 5 8 8111 8111 4111 White 18
2 AM Fri 57 52 NE 5 8 7900 7900 3900 White 17
3 AM Fri 56 51 NE 5 8 7688 7688 3688 White 16
4 AM Fri 55 50 NE 5 8 7474 7474 3474 White 15
5 AM Fri 55 50 NE 5 8 7474 7474 3474 White 15
6 AM Fri 55 50 NE 5 8 7474 7474 3474 White 15
7 AM Fri 56 51 NE 5 8 7688 7688 3688 White 16
8 AM Fri 58 53 N 5 8 8111 8111 4111 White 18
9 AM Fri 61 57 N 5 8 8952 8952 4952 White 22
10 AM Fri 64 61 N 5 8 9803 9803 5803 White 26
11 AM Fri 67 67 SW 6 11 11029 11029 7029 White 32
12 Noon Fri 69 70 SW 6 11 11633 11633 7633 White 35
1 PM Fri 70 71 SW 6 11 11834 11834 7834 White 36
2 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 10 14 11633 11633 7633 White 35
3 PM Fri 71 70 WSW 10 14 11633 11633 7633 White 35
4 PM Fri 71 68 WSW 10 14 11230 11230 7230 White 33
5 PM Fri 70 66 W 9 14 10826 10826 6826 White 31
6 PM Fri 68 63 W 9 14 10214 10214 6214 White 28
7 PM Fri 65 60 W 9 14 9575 9575 5575 White 25
8 PM Fri 63 58 NW 5 10 9161 9161 5161 White 23
9 PM Fri 61 56 NW 5 10 8743 8743 4743 White 21
10 PM Fri 60 55 NW 5 10 8535 8535 4535 White 20

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]