Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.796231, -123.00509, 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 WNW 13 14 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 WNW 13 14 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 WNW 13 14 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 WNW 13 14 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 13 14 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 WNW 14 16 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 14 16 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 WNW 14 16 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 W 16 17 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 W 16 17 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 60 W 16 17 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 62 W 17 19 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 66 W 17 19 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 63 68 W 17 19 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 63 68 W 21 25 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 67 W 21 25 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 66 W 21 25 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 59 60 WNW 24 32 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 57 WNW 24 32 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 WNW 24 32 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 NW 18 27 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 NW 18 27 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 NW 18 27 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 NW 18 21 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 NW 18 21 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 NW 18 21 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 NNW 20 27 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 NNW 20 27 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 NNW 20 27 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 NW 16 21 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 NW 16 21 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 NW 16 21 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 NW 16 20 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 44 NW 16 20 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 49 NW 16 20 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 53 WNW 16 20 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 57 WNW 16 20 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 60 WNW 16 20 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 56 62 WNW 17 21 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 57 62 WNW 17 21 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 58 61 WNW 17 21 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 60 WNW 10 14 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 56 WNW 10 14 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 WNW 10 14 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 5 10 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 WNW 5 10 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 WNW 5 10 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 NNW 6 10 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 NNW 6 10 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 NNW 6 10 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 N 5 9 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 N 5 9 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 N 5 9 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 N 4 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 N 4 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 N 4 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 N 4 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 50 N 4 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 56 N 4 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 62 E 3 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 66 E 3 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 64 70 E 3 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 66 72 SSW 5 8 6833 6900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 67 72 SSW 5 8 6833 6900 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 68 71 SSW 5 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 67 69 WSW 6 10 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 6 10 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 60 WSW 6 10 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 WNW 5 10 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 WNW 5 10 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 WNW 5 10 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 NW 5 9 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 NW 5 9 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 NW 5 9 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NNW 5 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 NNW 5 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 NNW 5 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 NNW 4 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 NNW 4 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 NNW 4 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 N 4 5 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 N 4 5 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 61 N 4 5 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 67 SSE 3 5 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 66 71 SSE 3 5 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 68 74 SSE 3 5 10281 6900 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 69 74 SSW 5 8 10281 6900 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 70 74 SSW 5 8 10281 6900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 70 73 SSW 5 8 8118 6900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 69 71 WSW 6 10 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 6 10 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 61 WSW 6 10 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 3 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 WNW 3 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 3 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 N 3 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 N 3 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 N 3 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 4 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 4 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 4 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 4 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 4 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 4 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 NE 5 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 59 NE 5 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 63 NE 5 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 68 ESE 5 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 71 ESE 5 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 68 74 ESE 5 8 10281 6900 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 69 74 ESE 8 11 10281 6900 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 70 74 ESE 8 11 10281 6900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 70 73 ESE 8 11 8118 6900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 69 70 SE 8 11 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 66 66 SE 8 11 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 SE 8 11 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 60 NNE 2 5 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 NNE 2 5 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 NNE 2 5 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 NNE 4 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 NNE 4 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 NNE 4 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 NE 4 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 NE 4 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 NE 4 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 ENE 4 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 60 ENE 4 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 63 ENE 4 6 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 68 ESE 5 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 66 71 ESE 5 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 68 73 ESE 5 8 8118 6900 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 69 74 SE 8 11 10281 6900 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 70 74 SE 8 11 10281 6900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 70 73 SE 8 11 8118 6900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 69 70 SE 9 11 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 67 67 SE 9 11 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 64 SE 9 11 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 N 3 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 N 3 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 N 3 8 5298 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]