Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.796231, -123.00509, 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 28 28 SSW 1 3 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 28 28 S 2 5 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 28 28 SSW 2 4 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 28 28 S 2 4 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 28 28 S 2 4 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 29 29 SSE 2 4 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 30 30 SSE 2 3 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 SSE 2 4 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 SSE 2 4 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 31 31 SSE 2 3 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 36 36 SSE 2 2 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 36 36 SSE 2 3 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 36 36 S 2 3 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 37 37 SSE 3 3 6986 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 36 36 S 3 5 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 39 39 S 4 8 7476 6900 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 39 39 S 3 8 7476 6900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 33 33 SSE 4 8 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 35 35 SE 3 8 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 35 35 ESE 3 6 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 33 33 SE 2 5 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 SE 3 6 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 35 35 SSE 3 6 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 33 33 S 2 6 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 27 27 SW 2 5 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 27 27 WSW 2 5 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 29 SW 2 4 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 S 2 3 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 34 34 SSW 3 3 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 29 29 WSW 4 4 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 WSW 4 5 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 WSW 4 4 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 29 29 WSW 4 5 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 29 29 SW 3 4 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 31 31 SW 4 5 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 5 7 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 34 34 WSW 7 8 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 32 32 WSW 7 9 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 36 36 W 8 14 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 27 27 WSW 7 13 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 27 27 WSW 6 11 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 27 27 WSW 5 10 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 19 19 WSW 4 8 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 14 14 SW 3 8 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 25 25 SW 3 8 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 8 8 SW 3 8 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 8 8 SW 3 7 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 22 22 SSW 3 7 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 7 7 SSW 3 7 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 7 7 SSW 3 6 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 20 20 SSW 3 6 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 17 17 SSW 2 5 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 17 17 SSW 2 5 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 23 23 S 2 5 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 19 19 SSE 2 6 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 16 16 SSE 2 6 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 16 16 SE 3 6 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 18 18 SE 3 6 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 26 26 ESE 2 2 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 31 32 ESE 3 3 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 33 33 E 2 3 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 31 31 E 2 3 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 41 41 E 2 3 7971 7224 324 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 25 25 E 2 5 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 25 25 ESE 2 5 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 33 33 E 3 6 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 22 22 ESE 3 6 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 23 23 ESE 3 8 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 24 24 SE 3 8 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 13 13 ESE 3 7 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 12 12 ESE 3 7 6824 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 23 23 ESE 3 8 6824 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]