Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.796231, -123.00509, 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 10 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 NNW 8 9 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 NW 6 9 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 NW 6 9 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 NW 6 9 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 NNW 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 NNW 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 NNW 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 NW 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 NW 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 37 NW 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 4 6 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 40 40 WNW 4 6 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 42 WNW 4 6 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 42 42 WNW 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 42 42 WNW 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 43 43 WNW 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 41 41 NW 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 40 40 NW 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 40 40 NW 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 NW 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 39 39 NW 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 39 39 NW 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 NW 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 NW 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 NW 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 NW 9 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 NW 9 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 NW 9 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 NNW 10 16 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 NNW 10 16 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 NNW 10 16 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 NNW 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 NNW 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 39 39 NNW 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 41 41 NW 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 42 43 NW 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 43 44 NW 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 43 44 WNW 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 43 44 WNW 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 43 43 WNW 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 42 42 NW 3 5 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 41 41 NW 3 5 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 39 39 NW 3 5 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 38 38 N 3 5 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 37 37 N 3 5 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 36 36 N 3 5 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 N 4 6 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 36 36 N 4 6 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 N 4 6 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 N 5 9 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 35 N 5 9 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 N 5 9 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 N 5 9 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 N 5 9 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 N 5 9 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 NNE 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 34 34 NNE 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 36 NNE 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 38 39 ENE 5 9 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 41 42 ENE 5 9 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 43 44 ENE 5 9 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 45 46 E 4 6 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 46 47 E 4 6 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 45 45 E 4 6 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 44 44 NE 8 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 42 42 NE 8 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 41 41 NE 8 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 39 39 NE 11 14 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 38 38 NE 11 14 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 37 37 NE 11 14 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 NE 11 14 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 NE 11 14 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 NE 11 14 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 37 37 NE 11 14 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 NE 11 14 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 NE 11 14 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 NE 11 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 NE 11 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 NE 11 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 NE 10 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 NE 10 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 37 37 NE 10 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 38 38 E 10 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 39 39 E 10 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 41 41 E 10 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 42 42 ESE 9 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 42 42 ESE 9 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 42 42 ESE 9 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 42 42 ENE 8 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 41 41 ENE 8 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 41 41 ENE 8 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 40 40 ENE 8 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 40 40 ENE 8 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 ENE 8 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 NE 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 NE 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 NE 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 NE 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 NE 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 NE 6 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 ENE 8 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 ENE 8 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 ENE 8 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 ENE 8 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 ENE 8 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 37 37 ENE 8 10 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 37 37 E 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 38 38 E 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 40 40 E 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 41 41 E 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 41 41 E 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 41 41 E 8 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 40 40 E 8 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 39 39 E 8 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 38 38 E 8 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 38 38 E 8 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 38 38 E 8 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 E 8 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 ENE 9 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 ENE 9 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 ENE 9 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 ENE 9 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 ENE 9 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 ENE 9 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 ENE 8 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 ENE 8 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 ENE 8 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 ENE 8 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 ENE 8 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 ENE 8 11 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 38 ESE 10 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 39 39 ESE 10 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 41 41 ESE 10 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 42 42 ESE 10 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 42 42 ESE 10 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 42 42 ESE 10 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 42 42 E 9 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 41 41 E 9 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 40 40 E 9 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 E 9 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 E 9 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 E 9 13 5207 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 39 39 ENE 9 12 5207 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]