Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8945, -115.4874, 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time:

 19 MAR 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 ENE 6 9 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 ENE 6 9 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 ENE 6 9 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 ENE 6 9 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 E 5 8 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 E 5 8 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 E 6 9 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 ESE 6 10 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 SE 9 12 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 43 SSE 11 14 5841 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 46 SSE 13 19 10174 6168 0 White 3
11 AM Sun 46 46 S 16 23 10174 6168 0 White 3
12 Noon Sun 48 48 S 18 25 10601 9637 3469 White 5
1 PM Sun 47 47 S 19 27 10388 8196 2028 White 4
2 PM Sun 46 46 SSW 20 28 10174 6168 0 White 3
3 PM Sun 45 45 SSW 20 28 9821 6168 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 44 44 SSW 20 28 8355 6168 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 44 44 SW 20 28 8355 6168 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 42 42 SW 18 26 5505 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 SW 16 23 5505 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 SW 14 21 5505 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 SW 14 21 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 SW 16 21 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 SW 17 24 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 WSW 17 24 5505 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 WSW 17 24 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 WSW 18 26 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 WSW 20 28 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 WSW 23 32 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 WSW 24 34 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 WSW 26 36 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 WSW 26 36 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 WSW 26 36 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 41 WSW 26 36 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 42 43 WSW 27 37 5841 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 47 WSW 28 40 10388 8196 2028 White 4
12 Noon Mon 46 49 WSW 28 41 10813 10541 4373 White 6
1 PM Mon 48 51 WSW 28 40 11238 11238 5070 White 8
2 PM Mon 49 52 WSW 27 39 11450 11450 5282 White 9
3 PM Mon 50 52 WSW 26 36 11450 11450 5282 White 9
4 PM Mon 50 51 W 24 33 11238 11238 5070 White 8
5 PM Mon 50 50 W 21 29 11026 11026 4858 White 7
6 PM Mon 49 49 WSW 18 26 10813 10541 4373 White 6
7 PM Mon 47 47 WSW 16 23 10388 8196 2028 White 4
8 PM Mon 45 45 WSW 14 20 9821 6168 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 44 44 SW 13 19 8355 6168 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 42 42 SW 12 18 5505 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 SW 12 17 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 SW 11 16 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 SW 11 16 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 SW 11 16 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 SW 11 17 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 SW 12 17 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 SW 12 18 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 SW 12 17 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 SW 12 17 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 SSW 11 16 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 39 SSW 11 17 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 40 40 S 13 19 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 41 41 S 17 24 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 41 41 S 20 28 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 42 42 S 23 32 5505 6168 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 42 42 S 25 35 5505 6168 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 41 41 S 27 39 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 41 41 S 29 42 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 40 40 S 31 43 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 40 40 SSW 29 42 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 39 39 SSW 28 40 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 SSW 28 39 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 SSW 28 41 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 SW 31 43 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 36 36 SW 32 44 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 SW 32 46 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 SW 32 46 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 SW 33 46 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 SW 33 47 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 SW 33 47 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 32 32 SW 32 44 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 SW 26 36 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 SW 20 28 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 SW 17 23 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 35 35 SW 16 21 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 36 37 SW 17 24 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 37 39 SW 19 26 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 38 40 SW 20 28 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 39 41 WSW 20 28 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 39 41 WSW 20 28 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 40 41 WSW 19 27 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 40 41 WSW 19 27 5165 6168 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 40 40 WSW 19 26 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 39 39 WSW 17 24 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 WSW 14 20 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 37 WSW 13 18 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 WSW 12 18 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 WSW 12 17 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 WSW 12 17 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 WSW 12 17 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 33 WSW 11 16 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 WSW 11 14 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 32 32 WSW 10 14 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 WSW 10 13 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 32 32 WSW 10 13 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 WSW 9 13 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 WSW 9 12 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 WSW 9 12 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 36 37 WSW 9 12 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 40 WSW 9 12 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 40 44 WSW 9 12 8355 6168 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 41 45 WSW 9 12 9821 6168 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 43 47 WSW 10 13 10388 8196 2028 White 4
2 PM Thu 43 47 WSW 11 16 10388 8196 2028 White 4
3 PM Thu 44 47 WSW 12 17 10388 8196 2028 White 4
4 PM Thu 45 47 WSW 12 18 10388 8196 2028 White 4
5 PM Thu 45 45 WSW 13 18 9821 6168 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 44 44 WSW 12 18 8355 6168 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 42 42 WSW 12 17 5505 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 40 40 WSW 11 16 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 WSW 11 16 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 38 38 SW 11 14 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 37 37 SW 11 14 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 SW 11 14 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 SW 11 16 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 35 SW 11 16 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 SW 11 16 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 SW 11 16 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 SW 11 14 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 34 34 SW 10 14 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 34 34 SW 10 13 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 SW 10 13 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 37 38 SW 10 13 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 40 42 SW 10 14 5505 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 42 46 SW 11 16 10174 6168 0 White 3
12 Noon Fri 43 47 WSW 12 17 10388 8196 2028 White 4
1 PM Fri 44 48 WSW 13 18 10601 9637 3469 White 5
2 PM Fri 45 49 WSW 14 20 10813 10541 4373 White 6
3 PM Fri 45 48 WSW 16 21 10601 9637 3469 White 5
4 PM Fri 44 45 WSW 16 21 9821 6168 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 43 43 WSW 16 21 5841 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 WSW 14 20 5505 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 WSW 13 18 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 WSW 12 18 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 WSW 13 18 5135 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 WSW 13 19 5135 6168 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]