Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8093, -115.2139, 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time:

 20 MAR 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Mon 47 47 SSW 5 8 3162 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 SSW 5 9 3162 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 SW 6 9 3162 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 45 45 SW 10 13 3162 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 45 45 SW 10 14 3162 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 45 45 SW 13 19 3162 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 45 45 SW 14 20 3162 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 45 45 SW 14 21 3162 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 47 47 SW 19 28 3162 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 48 48 SW 18 25 3162 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 53 53 SW 19 26 3162 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 55 55 SW 20 29 3162 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 WSW 19 27 3162 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 59 59 WSW 20 28 3162 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 WSW 20 29 3162 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 WSW 20 29 3162 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 WSW 18 26 3162 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 WSW 17 24 3162 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 WSW 13 19 3162 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 WSW 13 19 3162 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 SW 11 16 3162 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 SW 12 17 3162 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 SW 11 16 3162 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 SW 11 16 3162 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 SW 10 14 3162 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 SW 10 14 3162 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 47 47 SW 10 13 3162 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 46 46 SW 10 14 3162 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 46 46 SW 8 12 3162 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 44 44 SW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 43 43 SW 9 12 3162 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 42 42 SSW 9 12 3162 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 42 42 SSW 10 14 3162 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 44 44 S 11 17 3162 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 47 47 S 14 20 3162 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 S 18 26 3162 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 S 21 31 3162 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 52 52 S 24 34 3162 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 S 26 37 3162 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 S 27 39 3162 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 S 27 37 3162 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 S 26 36 3162 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 SSW 24 33 3162 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 SSW 20 29 3162 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 SSW 19 27 3162 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 SSW 21 29 3162 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 SW 24 33 3162 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 SW 26 36 3162 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 SW 25 35 3162 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 SW 23 33 3162 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 SW 21 31 3162 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 39 40 SW 21 31 3162 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 38 40 SW 21 32 3162 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 38 42 SW 23 33 3162 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 38 42 SW 23 33 3162 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 38 42 SW 23 34 3162 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 40 43 SW 23 34 3162 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 43 44 SW 23 34 3162 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 48 48 SW 23 34 3162 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 SW 23 33 3162 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 SW 23 33 3162 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 SW 23 32 3162 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 SW 21 31 3162 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 SW 20 28 3162 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 SW 19 27 3162 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 SW 17 24 3162 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 SW 14 20 3162 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 SW 12 17 3162 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 SW 10 14 3162 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 SW 10 14 3162 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 SW 10 14 3162 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 SW 10 14 3162 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 SW 9 13 3162 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 SW 9 12 3162 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 38 39 SW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 37 39 SW 8 10 3162 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 36 39 WSW 6 10 3162 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 35 39 WSW 6 10 3162 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 35 39 WSW 6 9 3162 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 36 39 WSW 6 9 3162 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 38 40 WSW 6 9 3162 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 41 42 WSW 6 10 3162 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 WSW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 49 49 WSW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 52 52 WSW 8 12 3162 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 W 9 12 3162 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 W 9 12 3162 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 10 13 3162 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 W 11 14 3162 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 W 11 16 3162 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 W 10 14 3162 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 W 9 13 3162 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 WSW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 WSW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 WSW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 WSW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 39 40 WSW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 38 41 WSW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 37 41 SW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 37 42 SW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 37 42 SW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 37 41 SW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 39 42 SW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 44 46 SW 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 49 50 WSW 9 12 3162 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 54 54 WSW 9 12 3162 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 57 57 WSW 10 13 3162 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 58 58 WSW 10 14 3162 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 11 16 3162 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 WSW 12 17 3162 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 W 13 18 3162 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 W 13 19 3162 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 W 13 18 3162 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 WSW 12 17 3162 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 WSW 11 16 3162 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 WSW 11 16 3162 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 WSW 10 14 3162 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 WSW 10 14 3162 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 WSW 10 13 3162 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 WSW 9 13 3162 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 40 41 WSW 9 13 3162 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 39 41 WSW 9 12 3162 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 38 41 W 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 37 41 W 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 36 40 W 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 37 40 W 8 11 3162 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 38 40 W 9 12 3162 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 42 43 WNW 10 14 3162 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 47 47 NNW 11 16 3162 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 51 51 N 12 17 3162 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 N 13 18 3162 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 54 54 NNW 13 19 3162 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 NNW 13 19 3162 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 NNW 13 19 3162 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 NNW 13 19 3162 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 NNW 13 19 3162 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 NNW 12 18 3162 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 N 12 17 3162 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 N 11 16 3162 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 N 11 16 3162 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 N 11 16 3162 3304 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]