Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8093, -115.2139, 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 SW 2 3 5164 5040 1736 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 38 38 SW 2 3 5164 5040 1736 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 37 37 SSW 1 1 5122 4998 1694 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 37 37 SSW 1 1 5122 4998 1694 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 37 37 SW 1 1 5122 4998 1694 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 37 37 SSW 1 1 5122 4998 1694 Blue 4
6 AM Mon 36 36 SSW 1 1 5081 4990 1686 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 35 35 SSW 1 1 5040 4990 1686 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 39 39 SSW 0 0 5205 5081 1777 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 47 47 W 1 1 5536 5411 2107 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 52 52 NNW 3 4 5744 5618 2314 Blue 19
11 AM Mon 56 57 N 3 4 7524 6328 3024 Blue 24
12 Noon Mon 58 59 NNE 4 6 8109 7110 3806 Blue 26
1 PM Mon 59 59 NNE 4 6 8109 7110 3806 Blue 26
2 PM Mon 59 59 NNE 3 4 8109 7110 3806 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 58 58 NNE 3 4 7907 6721 3417 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 56 56 NNE 3 4 7137 5928 2624 Blue 23
5 PM Mon 54 54 NE 3 4 6346 5701 2397 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 50 50 NE 2 3 5661 5535 2231 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 48 48 NNE 2 3 5578 5453 2149 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 46 46 N 2 3 5495 5370 2066 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 45 45 WNW 1 1 5453 5328 2024 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 44 44 W 1 1 5412 5287 1983 Blue 11
11 PM Mon 43 43 W 1 1 5370 5246 1942 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 WNW 1 1 5288 5163 1859 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 41 41 NNW 2 3 5288 5163 1859 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 40 40 N 2 3 5246 5122 1818 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 39 39 NNW 2 3 5205 5081 1777 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 38 38 N 1 1 5164 5040 1736 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 36 36 NNW 1 1 5081 4990 1686 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 34 34 NW 1 1 4998 4990 1686 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 35 35 WNW 1 1 5040 4990 1686 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 40 40 NW 2 3 5246 5122 1818 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 47 47 N 3 4 5536 5411 2107 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 53 54 N 4 6 6346 5701 2397 Blue 21
11 AM Tue 56 58 NNE 5 8 7907 6721 3417 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 58 60 NNE 5 8 8284 7493 4189 Blue 27
1 PM Tue 58 59 NNE 5 8 8109 7110 3806 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 58 59 NNE 5 8 8109 7110 3806 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 58 58 NNE 5 8 7907 6721 3417 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 56 56 NNE 5 8 7137 5928 2624 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 53 53 N 4 6 5941 5660 2356 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 49 49 NNW 4 6 5619 5494 2190 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 46 46 NW 3 4 5495 5370 2066 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 44 44 NW 3 4 5412 5287 1983 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 43 43 NW 3 4 5370 5246 1942 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 42 42 NW 3 4 5329 5205 1901 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 41 41 NW 4 6 5288 5163 1859 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 NNW 4 6 5246 5122 1818 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 39 39 NNW 5 8 5205 5081 1777 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 38 38 NNW 5 8 5164 5040 1736 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 36 36 NNW 5 8 5081 4990 1686 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 35 35 NNW 5 8 5040 4990 1686 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 33 33 NNW 5 8 0 4990 1686 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 N 5 8 0 4990 1686 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 N 6 9 0 4990 1686 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 N 9 12 5164 5040 1736 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 45 46 N 11 16 5495 5370 2066 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 51 53 N 12 17 5941 5660 2356 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 54 56 N 12 17 7137 5928 2624 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 56 58 NNE 12 17 7907 6721 3417 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 56 58 NNE 12 17 7907 6721 3417 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 56 57 NNE 12 17 7524 6328 3024 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 56 56 NNE 12 17 7137 5928 2624 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 54 54 NNE 11 16 6346 5701 2397 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 51 51 N 10 14 5702 5577 2273 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 48 48 N 8 11 5578 5453 2149 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 45 45 N 6 9 5453 5328 2024 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 43 43 N 5 8 5370 5246 1942 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 41 41 N 5 8 5288 5163 1859 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 40 40 N 5 8 5246 5122 1818 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 39 39 N 5 8 5205 5081 1777 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 NNW 5 8 5205 5081 1777 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 38 38 NNW 5 8 5164 5040 1736 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 37 37 NNW 5 8 5122 4998 1694 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 36 36 NNW 5 8 5081 4990 1686 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 35 35 NNW 5 8 5040 4990 1686 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 33 33 NNW 5 8 0 4990 1686 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 NNW 5 8 0 4990 1686 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 NNW 5 8 0 4990 1686 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 N 6 9 5164 5040 1736 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 44 45 N 6 9 5453 5328 2024 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 50 51 NNE 8 11 5702 5577 2273 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 53 55 NNE 9 12 6744 5743 2439 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 55 57 NNE 10 14 7524 6328 3024 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 56 58 NNE 10 14 7907 6721 3417 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 56 57 NNE 10 14 7524 6328 3024 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 56 56 NNE 9 12 7137 5928 2624 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 54 54 NNE 8 11 6346 5701 2397 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 51 51 N 6 9 5702 5577 2273 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 48 48 NNW 6 9 5578 5453 2149 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 45 45 NNW 5 8 5453 5328 2024 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 43 43 NNW 5 8 5370 5246 1942 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 42 42 NW 5 8 5329 5205 1901 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 41 41 NW 5 8 5288 5163 1859 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 40 40 NW 5 8 5246 5122 1818 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 NW 5 8 5205 5081 1777 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 38 38 NW 5 8 5164 5040 1736 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 37 37 NNW 5 8 5122 4998 1694 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 37 37 NNW 5 8 5122 4998 1694 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 36 36 NNW 5 8 5081 4990 1686 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 35 35 NNW 5 8 5040 4990 1686 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 34 34 N 5 8 4998 4990 1686 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 35 35 N 5 8 5040 4990 1686 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 40 40 N 6 9 5246 5122 1818 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 46 46 NNE 6 9 5495 5370 2066 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 52 53 NNE 8 11 5941 5660 2356 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 55 56 NNE 9 12 7137 5928 2624 Blue 23
12 Noon Fri 57 58 NNE 9 12 7907 6721 3417 Blue 25
1 PM Fri 58 59 NNE 9 12 8109 7110 3806 Blue 26
2 PM Fri 58 58 NNE 9 12 7907 6721 3417 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 57 57 NNE 8 11 7524 6328 3024 Blue 24
4 PM Fri 55 55 NNE 6 9 6744 5743 2439 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 53 53 N 6 9 5941 5660 2356 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 50 50 N 5 8 5661 5535 2231 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 47 47 NNW 5 8 5536 5411 2107 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 45 45 NNW 5 8 5453 5328 2024 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 44 44 NNW 5 8 5412 5287 1983 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 43 43 NW 5 8 5370 5246 1942 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 42 42 NNW 5 8 5329 5205 1901 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 NNW 5 8 5288 5163 1859 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 40 40 NNW 5 8 5246 5122 1818 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 40 40 NNW 5 8 5246 5122 1818 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 39 39 NNW 5 8 5205 5081 1777 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 39 39 NNW 5 8 5205 5081 1777 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 37 37 NNW 5 8 5122 4998 1694 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 36 36 N 5 8 5081 4990 1686 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 37 37 N 5 8 5122 4998 1694 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 42 42 N 5 8 5329 5205 1901 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 48 48 N 6 9 5578 5453 2149 Blue 15
10 AM Sat 54 55 NNE 6 9 6744 5743 2439 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 57 58 NNE 6 9 7907 6721 3417 Blue 25
12 Noon Sat 59 60 NNE 8 11 8284 7493 4189 Blue 27
1 PM Sat 59 60 NNE 8 11 8284 7493 4189 Blue 27
2 PM Sat 59 59 NNE 8 11 8109 7110 3806 Blue 26
3 PM Sat 58 58 NNE 6 9 7907 6721 3417 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 56 56 NNE 6 9 7137 5928 2624 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 54 54 N 6 9 6346 5701 2397 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 51 51 NNW 5 8 5702 5577 2273 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 48 48 NW 5 8 5578 5453 2149 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 46 46 NW 5 8 5495 5370 2066 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 44 44 NW 5 8 5412 5287 1983 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 43 43 NW 5 8 5370 5246 1942 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]