Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.796231, -123.00509, 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

 KMFR

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 NW 8 11 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 NW 10 16 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 NW 10 16 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 NW 10 16 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 NW 10 16 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 NW 10 16 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 NW 10 16 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 NW 11 17 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 NW 11 17 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 37 NW 11 17 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 39 39 WNW 8 12 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 40 41 WNW 8 12 5787 6900 0 White 1
12 Noon Mon 42 43 WNW 8 12 6232 6900 0 White 3
1 PM Mon 43 44 WNW 8 12 6455 6900 0 White 4
2 PM Mon 44 44 WNW 8 12 6455 6900 0 White 4
3 PM Mon 43 43 WNW 8 12 6232 6900 0 White 3
4 PM Mon 43 43 NNW 6 10 6232 6900 0 White 3
5 PM Mon 42 42 NNW 6 10 6010 6900 0 White 2
6 PM Mon 40 40 NNW 6 10 5555 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 39 39 N 5 9 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 39 39 N 5 9 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 39 39 N 5 9 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 38 38 N 6 10 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 39 N 6 10 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 N 6 10 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 N 6 10 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 N 6 10 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 N 6 10 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 NNE 6 10 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 NNE 6 10 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 NNE 6 10 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 NNE 8 12 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 NNE 8 12 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 37 37 NNE 8 12 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 40 41 ENE 9 13 5787 6900 0 White 1
11 AM Tue 42 43 ENE 9 13 6232 6900 0 White 3
12 Noon Tue 44 45 ENE 9 13 6677 6900 0 White 5
1 PM Tue 45 46 E 8 12 6899 6900 0 White 6
2 PM Tue 46 47 E 8 12 7120 6932 32 White 7
3 PM Tue 45 45 E 8 12 6677 6900 0 White 5
4 PM Tue 44 44 ENE 9 13 6455 6900 0 White 4
5 PM Tue 43 43 ENE 9 13 6232 6900 0 White 3
6 PM Tue 41 41 ENE 9 13 5787 6900 0 White 1
7 PM Tue 40 40 NE 10 16 5555 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 NE 10 16 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 NE 10 16 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 NE 9 13 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 NE 9 13 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 NE 9 13 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 NE 9 13 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 NE 9 13 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 NE 9 13 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 NE 6 10 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 NE 6 10 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 NE 6 10 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 NE 6 10 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 NE 6 10 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 39 39 NE 6 10 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 40 40 E 6 10 5555 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 42 43 E 6 10 6232 6900 0 White 3
12 Noon Wed 44 45 E 6 10 6677 6900 0 White 5
1 PM Wed 45 45 ESE 6 10 6677 6900 0 White 5
2 PM Wed 45 45 ESE 6 10 6677 6900 0 White 5
3 PM Wed 45 45 ESE 6 10 6677 6900 0 White 5
4 PM Wed 44 44 E 5 9 6455 6900 0 White 4
5 PM Wed 43 43 E 5 9 6232 6900 0 White 3
6 PM Wed 41 41 E 5 9 5787 6900 0 White 1
7 PM Wed 40 40 NE 5 9 5555 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 39 39 NE 5 9 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 NE 5 9 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 NE 5 9 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 NE 5 9 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 NE 5 9 5555 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 NE 5 9 5555 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 NE 5 9 5555 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 NE 5 9 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 NE 5 9 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 NE 5 9 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 NE 5 9 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 ENE 8 12 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 ENE 8 12 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 38 ENE 8 12 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 38 E 8 12 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 39 39 E 8 12 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 40 40 E 8 12 5555 6900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 41 41 E 10 16 5787 6900 0 White 1
2 PM Thu 41 41 E 10 16 5787 6900 0 White 1
3 PM Thu 41 41 E 10 16 5787 6900 0 White 1
4 PM Thu 41 41 E 9 13 5787 6900 0 White 1
5 PM Thu 40 40 E 9 13 5555 6900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 40 40 E 9 13 5555 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 39 39 E 9 13 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 E 9 13 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 E 9 13 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 E 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 E 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 E 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 E 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 E 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 E 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 E 12 19 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 E 12 19 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 E 12 19 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 E 12 19 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 E 12 19 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 E 12 19 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 38 E 13 20 5007 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 39 39 E 13 20 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 41 41 E 13 20 5787 6900 0 White 1
1 PM Fri 42 42 E 13 20 6010 6900 0 White 2
2 PM Fri 42 42 E 13 20 6010 6900 0 White 2
3 PM Fri 42 42 E 13 20 6010 6900 0 White 2
4 PM Fri 42 42 E 13 20 6010 6900 0 White 2
5 PM Fri 41 41 E 13 20 5787 6900 0 White 1
6 PM Fri 40 40 E 13 20 5555 6900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 E 13 20 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 E 13 20 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 E 13 20 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 39 39 ENE 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 39 39 ENE 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 ENE 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 39 39 ENE 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 ENE 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 ENE 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 ENE 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 ENE 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 ENE 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 ENE 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 ENE 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 39 39 ENE 11 17 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 39 E 12 19 5073 6900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 41 E 12 19 5787 6900 0 White 1
12 Noon Sat 42 43 E 12 19 6232 6900 0 White 3
1 PM Sat 43 44 E 12 19 6455 6900 0 White 4
2 PM Sat 43 43 E 12 19 6232 6900 0 White 3
3 PM Sat 43 43 E 12 19 6232 6900 0 White 3
4 PM Sat 43 43 E 12 19 6232 6900 0 White 3
5 PM Sat 42 42 E 12 19 6010 6900 0 White 2
6 PM Sat 41 41 E 12 19 5787 6900 0 White 1
7 PM Sat 40 40 E 12 19 5555 6900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 E 12 19 5555 6900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 E 12 19 5555 6900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 ENE 12 19 5555 6900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]