SoaringPredictor for Woodrat Mountain

Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 42.2317, -123.004, 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700

Sounding
Station:	KMFR
Date/Time:	25 APR 2024
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Wind Gust	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
12 Midnight Thu	43	43	SSW 1	3	3424	3700	0	Blue	0
1 AM Thu	42	42	S 2	4	2807	3700	0	Blue	0
2 AM Thu	41	41	SSW 2	4	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
3 AM Thu	40	40	SSW 2	5	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
4 AM Thu	40	40	SSW 2	4	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
5 AM Thu	40	40	SSW 2	4	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
6 AM Thu	39	39	S 10	15	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
7 AM Thu	43	43	SSW 2	3	3424	3700	0	Blue	0
8 AM Thu	45	45	SSW 1	2	4593	3700	0	Blue	0
9 AM Thu	47	47	W 2	2	5642	4014	314	Blue	1
10 AM Thu	50	50	WNW 2	3	6457	5633	1933	Blue	4
11 AM Thu	49	49	WNW 4	4	6102	5389	1689	Blue	3
12 Noon Thu	48	50	WNW 4	6	6457	5633	1933	Blue	4
1 PM Thu	48	48	WSW 2	4	5776	4578	878	Blue	2
2 PM Thu	47	47	SW 3	4	5642	4014	314	Blue	1
3 PM Thu	47	47	SW 3	5	5642	4014	314	Blue	1
4 PM Thu	46	46	SSW 3	5	5448	3700	0	Blue	0
5 PM Thu	45	45	SSW 3	5	4593	3700	0	Blue	0
6 PM Thu	45	45	SW 3	5	4593	3700	0	Blue	0
7 PM Thu	44	44	SW 2	4	4019	3700	0	Blue	0
8 PM Thu	44	44	SSW 2	4	4019	3700	0	Blue	0
9 PM Thu	43	43	SSW 2	4	3424	3700	0	Blue	0
10 PM Thu	43	43	SW 2	4	3424	3700	0	Blue	0
11 PM Thu	42	42	SW 3	5	2807	3700	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Fri	42	42	SW 3	5	2807	3700	0	Blue	0
1 AM Fri	42	42	SW 3	5	2807	3700	0	Blue	0
2 AM Fri	41	41	SSW 3	6	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
3 AM Fri	41	41	SW 3	5	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
4 AM Fri	41	41	SSW 3	4	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
5 AM Fri	40	40	SW 3	5	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
6 AM Fri	40	40	SSW 4	6	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
7 AM Fri	40	40	SSW 3	5	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
8 AM Fri	40	40	SSW 3	5	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
9 AM Fri	40	40	SW 2	4	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
10 AM Fri	41	41	SW 2	4	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
11 AM Fri	41	41	SW 2	4	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Fri	41	41	SW 3	4	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
1 PM Fri	42	42	WSW 3	4	2807	3700	0	Blue	0
2 PM Fri	42	42	WSW 2	3	2807	3700	0	Blue	0
3 PM Fri	42	42	WNW 3	4	2807	3700	0	Blue	0
4 PM Fri	43	43	WNW 2	3	3424	3700	0	Blue	0
5 PM Fri	43	43	W 3	4	3424	3700	0	Blue	0
6 PM Fri	43	43	WSW 1	2	3424	3700	0	Blue	0
7 PM Fri	42	42	NW 1	2	2807	3700	0	Blue	0
8 PM Fri	41	41	NNE 0	1	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
9 PM Fri	40	40	N 2	3	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
10 PM Fri	40	40	NNE 1	3	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
11 PM Fri	40	40	NNE 1	2	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Sat	40	40	NE 1	2	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
1 AM Sat	39	39	ENE 1	2	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
2 AM Sat	39	39	ENE 1	1	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
3 AM Sat	38	38	E 0	1	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
4 AM Sat	38	38	N 0	1	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sat	37	37	SSE 0	1	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sat	36	36	S 1	3	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sat	38	38	SSW 2	3	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sat	40	40	SSW 1	1	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sat	43	43	WSW 0	0	3424	3700	0	Blue	0
10 AM Sat	46	47	NW 0	1	5642	4014	314	Blue	1
11 AM Sat	49	50	NW 1	1	6457	5633	1933	Blue	4
12 Noon Sat	49	49	NW 3	3	6102	5389	1689	Blue	3
1 PM Sat	49	50	W 2	2	6457	5633	1933	Blue	4
2 PM Sat	47	49	WNW 2	3	6102	5389	1689	Blue	3
3 PM Sat	46	47	WSW 3	4	5642	4014	314	Blue	1
4 PM Sat	45	45	SW 2	3	4593	3700	0	Blue	0
5 PM Sat	44	44	W 2	3	4019	3700	0	Blue	0
6 PM Sat	43	43	SSW 2	3	3424	3700	0	Blue	0
7 PM Sat	42	42	WSW 1	2	2807	3700	0	Blue	0
8 PM Sat	42	42	WSW 1	1	2807	3700	0	Blue	0
9 PM Sat	42	42	SSW 0	0	2807	3700	0	Blue	0
10 PM Sat	41	41	S 1	1	2746	3700	0	Blue	0
11 PM Sat	41	41	WSW 1	2	2746	3700	0	Blue	0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]