Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 42.2317, -123.004, 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 WSW 2 5 3596 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 69 69 WSW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 68 68 W 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 W 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 W 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 SW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 SW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 SW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 65 NW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 69 NW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 77 NW 2 5 4579 4086 386 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 79 85 NNW 4 8 5749 5016 1316 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 82 89 NNW 4 8 6661 6002 2302 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 89 97 NNW 4 8 15551 9119 5419 White 20
2 PM Sat 91 99 WNW 8 12 15958 11800 8100 White 22
3 PM Sat 93 100 WNW 8 12 16162 16162 12462 White 23
4 PM Sat 93 98 WNW 8 12 15754 10240 6540 White 21
5 PM Sat 93 96 WNW 8 12 12193 8491 4791 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 92 94 WNW 8 12 9333 7161 3461 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 92 92 WNW 8 12 7591 6636 2936 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 88 88 NW 3 6 6394 5724 2024 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 81 81 NW 3 6 4937 4703 1003 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 78 78 NW 3 6 4707 4249 549 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 76 76 WSW 3 6 4415 3923 223 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 WSW 3 6 3924 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 72 72 WSW 3 6 3760 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 WSW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 67 WSW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 WSW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 WSW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 WSW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 WSW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 67 WNW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 71 WNW 2 5 3596 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 73 76 WNW 2 5 4415 3923 223 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 77 81 NW 4 8 4937 4703 1003 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 81 86 NW 4 8 6012 5125 1425 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 85 91 NW 4 8 7190 6371 2671 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 88 94 WNW 8 12 9333 7161 3461 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 90 95 WNW 8 12 10462 7541 3841 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 90 94 WNW 8 12 9333 7161 3461 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 90 92 WNW 9 13 7591 6636 2936 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 89 90 WNW 9 13 6926 6143 2443 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 88 88 WNW 9 13 6394 5724 2024 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 85 85 NNW 6 10 5749 5016 1316 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 81 81 NNW 6 10 4937 4703 1003 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 77 77 NNW 6 10 4579 4086 386 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 73 73 NNW 4 8 3924 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 NNW 4 8 3596 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 69 NNW 4 8 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 NNW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 66 NNW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 NNW 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 NE 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 NE 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 65 NE 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 68 N 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 72 N 2 5 3760 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 74 78 N 2 5 4707 4249 549 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 78 83 NNW 4 8 5130 4862 1162 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 82 89 NNW 4 8 6661 6002 2302 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 85 92 NNW 4 8 7591 6636 2936 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 88 95 NNW 8 12 10462 7541 3841 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 90 96 NNW 8 12 12193 8491 4791 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 90 95 NNW 8 12 10462 7541 3841 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 90 93 NNW 10 16 8536 6899 3199 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 90 91 NNW 10 16 7190 6371 2671 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 88 88 NNW 10 16 6394 5724 2024 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 86 86 NNW 9 13 6012 5125 1425 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 82 82 NNW 9 13 5021 4789 1089 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 78 78 NNW 9 13 4707 4249 549 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 74 74 NW 4 8 4088 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 NW 4 8 3760 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 NW 4 8 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 69 69 ESE 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 68 ESE 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 ESE 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 66 ESE 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 65 ESE 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 ESE 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 68 ENE 2 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 72 ENE 2 5 3760 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 78 ENE 2 5 4707 4249 549 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 79 84 NNW 4 8 5239 4935 1235 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 83 90 NNW 4 8 6926 6143 2443 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 87 94 NNW 4 8 9333 7161 3461 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 90 97 NW 6 10 15551 9119 5419 White 20
3 PM Tue 91 97 NW 6 10 15551 9119 5419 White 20
4 PM Tue 92 97 NW 6 10 15551 9119 5419 White 20
5 PM Tue 91 94 WNW 9 16 9333 7161 3461 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 90 91 WNW 9 16 7190 6371 2671 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 89 89 WNW 9 16 6661 6002 2302 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 86 86 NW 9 13 6012 5125 1425 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 82 82 NW 9 13 5021 4789 1089 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 78 78 NW 9 13 4707 4249 549 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 74 74 WNW 5 9 4088 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 WNW 5 9 3760 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 WNW 5 9 3596 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 W 3 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 W 3 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 66 W 3 5 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 SE 2 3 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 SE 2 3 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 SE 2 3 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 67 NE 2 4 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 71 NE 2 4 3596 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 73 76 NE 2 4 4415 3923 223 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 77 82 NNW 5 8 5021 4789 1089 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 81 88 NNW 5 8 6394 5724 2024 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 84 91 NNW 5 8 7190 6371 2671 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 87 94 NW 8 12 9333 7161 3461 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 89 95 NW 8 12 10462 7541 3841 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 89 94 NW 8 12 9333 7161 3461 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 89 92 NW 10 16 7591 6636 2936 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 88 90 NW 10 16 6926 6143 2443 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 87 87 NW 10 16 6154 5234 1534 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 84 84 NW 10 14 5239 4935 1235 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 80 80 NW 10 14 4865 4574 874 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 76 76 NW 10 14 4415 3923 223 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 72 72 NW 5 8 3760 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 NW 5 8 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 NW 5 8 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 N 3 4 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 N 3 4 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 N 3 4 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 E 2 3 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 E 2 3 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 E 2 3 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 65 N 2 4 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 69 N 2 4 3481 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 75 N 2 4 4252 3760 60 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 75 81 NNW 5 8 4937 4703 1003 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 79 86 NNW 5 8 6012 5125 1425 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 82 90 NNW 5 8 6926 6143 2443 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 84 92 NNW 8 13 7591 6636 2936 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 86 93 NNW 8 13 8536 6899 3199 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 86 91 NNW 8 13 7190 6371 2671 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 86 89 NNW 10 16 6661 6002 2302 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 85 87 NNW 10 16 6154 5234 1534 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 84 84 NNW 10 16 5239 4935 1235 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 81 81 NNW 10 14 4937 4703 1003 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 77 77 NNW 10 14 4579 4086 386 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 74 74 NNW 10 14 4088 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]