Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 42.2317, -123.004, 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 NW 2 5 4847 4092 392 White 2
1 AM Sun 46 46 NW 2 5 4624 3700 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 W 6 10 4624 3700 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 W 6 10 4398 3700 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 W 6 10 4173 3700 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 W 6 10 3164 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 W 6 10 3164 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 W 6 10 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 W 5 9 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 W 5 9 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 43 W 5 9 3164 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 43 W 6 10 3164 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 45 45 W 6 10 4398 3700 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 47 47 W 6 10 4847 4092 392 White 2
2 PM Sun 48 49 W 9 13 5286 5286 1586 White 4
3 PM Sun 49 50 W 9 13 5505 5505 1805 White 5
4 PM Sun 51 51 W 9 13 5724 5724 2024 White 6
5 PM Sun 51 51 WNW 9 13 5724 5724 2024 White 6
6 PM Sun 51 51 WNW 9 13 5724 5724 2024 White 6
7 PM Sun 49 49 WNW 9 13 5286 5286 1586 White 4
8 PM Sun 46 46 W 4 8 4624 3700 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 W 4 8 4173 3700 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 W 4 8 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 WSW 3 6 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 WSW 3 6 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 WSW 3 6 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 SW 3 6 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 SW 3 6 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 SW 3 6 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 SW 2 5 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 SW 2 5 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 SW 2 5 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 WSW 1 4 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 37 WSW 1 4 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 40 40 WSW 1 4 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 43 46 WNW 2 5 4624 3700 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 46 50 WNW 2 5 5505 5505 1805 White 5
1 PM Mon 49 53 WNW 2 5 6161 6161 2461 White 8
2 PM Mon 52 58 NW 4 8 7235 7235 3535 White 13
3 PM Mon 54 59 NW 4 8 7448 7448 3748 White 14
4 PM Mon 54 57 NW 4 8 7020 7020 3320 White 12
5 PM Mon 54 56 NNW 5 9 6806 6806 3106 White 11
6 PM Mon 52 52 NNW 5 9 5943 5943 2243 White 7
7 PM Mon 50 50 NNW 5 9 5505 5505 1805 White 5
8 PM Mon 47 47 N 4 8 4847 4092 392 White 2
9 PM Mon 44 44 N 4 8 4173 3700 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 N 4 8 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 40 40 NE 2 5 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 NE 2 5 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 NE 2 5 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 SSW 1 4 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 SSW 1 4 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 SSW 1 4 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 NE 1 4 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 NE 1 4 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 NE 1 4 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 NNE 2 5 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 40 NNE 2 5 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 44 NNE 2 5 4173 3700 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 46 49 N 5 9 5286 5286 1586 White 4
12 Noon Tue 49 52 N 5 9 5943 5943 2243 White 7
1 PM Tue 53 57 N 5 9 7020 7020 3320 White 12
2 PM Tue 55 59 NNW 9 13 7448 7448 3748 White 14
3 PM Tue 57 60 NNW 9 13 7661 7661 3961 White 15
4 PM Tue 57 59 NNW 9 13 7448 7448 3748 White 14
5 PM Tue 56 57 NNW 12 19 7020 7020 3320 White 12
6 PM Tue 54 54 NNW 12 19 6377 6377 2677 White 9
7 PM Tue 50 50 NNW 12 19 5505 5505 1805 White 5
8 PM Tue 47 47 N 11 17 4847 4092 392 White 2
9 PM Tue 44 44 N 11 17 4173 3700 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 N 11 17 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 NNW 6 10 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 NNW 6 10 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 37 37 NNW 6 10 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 N 3 6 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 35 35 N 3 6 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 34 34 N 3 6 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 34 34 NE 3 6 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 NE 3 6 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 NE 3 6 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 36 NE 4 8 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 41 NE 4 8 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 46 NE 4 8 4624 3700 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 49 53 NNE 6 10 6161 6161 2461 White 8
12 Noon Wed 53 58 NNE 6 10 7235 7235 3535 White 13
1 PM Wed 57 62 NNE 6 10 8087 8087 4387 White 17
2 PM Wed 60 64 NNE 6 10 8512 8512 4812 White 19
3 PM Wed 62 65 NNE 6 10 8726 8726 5026 White 20
4 PM Wed 62 64 NNE 6 10 8512 8512 4812 White 19
5 PM Wed 62 63 N 6 10 8299 8299 4599 White 18
6 PM Wed 61 61 N 6 10 7874 7874 4174 White 16
7 PM Wed 59 59 N 6 10 7448 7448 3748 White 14
8 PM Wed 56 56 N 6 10 6806 6806 3106 White 11
9 PM Wed 52 52 N 6 10 5943 5943 2243 White 7
10 PM Wed 48 48 N 6 10 5066 4868 1168 White 3
11 PM Wed 44 44 E 4 8 4173 3700 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 E 4 8 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 E 4 8 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 E 4 8 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 E 4 8 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 E 4 8 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 E 4 8 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 E 4 8 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 E 4 8 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 E 4 8 2913 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 47 E 4 8 4847 4092 392 White 2
10 AM Thu 51 53 E 4 8 6161 6161 2461 White 8
11 AM Thu 57 61 NNE 5 9 7874 7874 4174 White 16
12 Noon Thu 61 66 NNE 5 9 8940 8940 5240 White 21
1 PM Thu 65 70 NNE 5 9 9794 9794 6094 White 25
2 PM Thu 67 71 NNE 5 9 10003 10003 6303 White 26
3 PM Thu 69 73 NNE 5 9 10418 10418 6718 White 28
4 PM Thu 70 72 NNE 5 9 10211 10211 6511 White 27
5 PM Thu 69 70 NNW 6 10 9794 9794 6094 White 25
6 PM Thu 67 67 NNW 6 10 9154 9154 5454 White 22
7 PM Thu 63 63 NNW 6 10 8299 8299 4599 White 18
8 PM Thu 59 59 NNW 6 10 7448 7448 3748 White 14
9 PM Thu 56 56 NNW 6 10 6806 6806 3106 White 11
10 PM Thu 53 53 NNW 6 10 6161 6161 2461 White 8
11 PM Thu 50 50 S 4 8 5505 5505 1805 White 5
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 S 4 8 5066 4868 1168 White 3
1 AM Fri 46 46 S 4 8 4624 3700 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 S 4 8 4398 3700 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 S 4 8 4173 3700 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 S 4 8 4173 3700 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 ESE 4 8 4173 3700 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 ESE 4 8 4173 3700 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 ESE 4 8 4398 3700 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 ESE 4 8 4847 4092 392 White 2
9 AM Fri 51 52 ESE 4 8 5943 5943 2243 White 7
10 AM Fri 56 59 ESE 4 8 7448 7448 3748 White 14
11 AM Fri 61 65 NNW 5 9 8726 8726 5026 White 20
12 Noon Fri 65 70 NNW 5 9 9794 9794 6094 White 25
1 PM Fri 68 73 NNW 5 9 10418 10418 6718 White 28
2 PM Fri 70 74 NNW 5 9 10626 10626 6926 White 29
3 PM Fri 71 75 NNW 5 9 10831 10831 7131 White 30
4 PM Fri 71 73 NNW 5 9 10418 10418 6718 White 28
5 PM Fri 70 71 NW 9 13 10003 10003 6303 White 26
6 PM Fri 68 68 NW 9 13 9367 9367 5667 White 23
7 PM Fri 64 64 NW 9 13 8512 8512 4812 White 19
8 PM Fri 61 61 NW 9 13 7874 7874 4174 White 16
9 PM Fri 58 58 NW 9 13 7235 7235 3535 White 13
10 PM Fri 55 55 NW 9 13 6592 6592 2892 White 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]