SoaringPredictor for Woodrat Mountain

Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 42.2317, -123.004, 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700

Sounding
Station:	KMFR
Date/Time:	N/A
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Wind Gust	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
12 Midnight Mon	62	62	E 1	4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Mon	62	62	E 1	4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Mon	60	60	ESE 4	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Mon	58	58	ESE 4	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Mon	57	57	ESE 4	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Mon	56	56	SE 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Mon	56	56	SE 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Mon	56	56	SE 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Mon	55	55	SE 1	4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Mon	60	60	SE 1	4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Mon	65	66	SE 1	4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Mon	68	70	NW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Mon	72	75	NW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Mon	77	81	NW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Mon	79	83	NW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Mon	80	83	NW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Mon	81	83	NW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Mon	80	80	WNW 4	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Mon	77	77	WNW 4	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Mon	74	74	WNW 4	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Mon	68	68	WSW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Mon	66	66	WSW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Mon	64	64	WSW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Mon	63	63	SW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Tue	61	61	SW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Tue	60	60	SW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Tue	59	59	WSW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Tue	56	56	WSW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Tue	55	55	WSW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Tue	54	54	WSW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Tue	52	52	WSW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Tue	52	52	WSW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Tue	52	52	SW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Tue	55	55	SW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Tue	59	60	SW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Tue	62	64	NW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Tue	68	71	NW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Tue	71	75	NW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Tue	72	75	NW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Tue	73	75	NW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Tue	73	74	NW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Tue	72	72	NW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Tue	70	70	NW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Tue	66	66	NW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Tue	63	63	NNW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Tue	60	60	NNW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Tue	58	58	NNW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Tue	57	57	WSW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Wed	55	55	WSW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Wed	54	54	WSW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Wed	53	53	SSW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Wed	53	53	SSW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Wed	52	52	SSW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Wed	52	52	SSE 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Wed	50	50	SSE 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Wed	49	49	SSE 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Wed	49	49	SSE 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Wed	51	51	SSE 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Wed	54	54	SSE 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Wed	57	58	NNW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Wed	60	62	NNW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Wed	63	65	NNW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Wed	65	67	NNW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Wed	67	68	NNW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Wed	67	68	NNW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Wed	66	66	NNW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Wed	64	64	NNW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Wed	61	61	NNW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Wed	59	59	NNW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Wed	57	57	NNW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Wed	56	56	NNW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Wed	55	55	N 4	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Thu	54	54	N 4	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Thu	53	53	N 4	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Thu	52	52	N 4	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Thu	51	51	N 4	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Thu	51	51	N 4	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Thu	50	50	E 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Thu	49	49	E 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Thu	48	48	E 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Thu	48	48	E 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Thu	50	50	E 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Thu	53	53	E 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Thu	57	58	NNW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Thu	60	61	NNW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Thu	64	65	NNW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Thu	66	68	NNW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Thu	68	69	NNW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Thu	69	70	NNW 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Thu	69	69	WNW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Thu	67	67	WNW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Thu	64	64	WNW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Thu	61	61	WNW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Thu	59	59	WNW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Thu	57	57	WNW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Thu	56	56	S 6	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Fri	55	55	S 6	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Fri	54	54	S 6	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Fri	54	54	S 6	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Fri	53	53	S 6	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Fri	52	52	S 6	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Fri	52	52	SSE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Fri	51	51	SSE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Fri	51	51	SSE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Fri	52	52	SSE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Fri	54	54	SSE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Fri	57	57	SSE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Fri	60	61	SW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Fri	63	64	SW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Fri	65	66	SW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Fri	66	67	SW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Fri	67	68	SW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Fri	67	67	SW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Fri	67	67	WSW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Fri	65	65	WSW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Fri	62	62	WSW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Fri	60	60	WSW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Fri	58	58	WSW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Fri	57	57	WSW 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Fri	56	56	S 8	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Sat	55	55	S 8	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Sat	55	55	S 8	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Sat	54	54	S 8	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Sat	53	53	S 8	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Sat	52	52	S 8	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Sat	51	51	SSE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Sat	50	50	SSE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Sat	49	49	SSE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Sat	49	49	SSE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Sat	51	51	SSE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Sat	54	54	SSE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Sat	57	58	SW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Sat	60	62	SW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Sat	63	65	SW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Sat	65	67	SW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Sat	66	68	SW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Sat	66	67	SW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Sat	65	65	W 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Sat	63	63	W 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Sat	61	61	W 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Sat	59	59	W 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Sat	57	57	W 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Sat	56	56	W 3	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]