Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 42.2317, -123.004, 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KMFR

Date/Time UTC:

250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 S 5 9 5031 3700 0 White 1
1 AM Mon 38 38 S 4 8 4407 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 S 4 8 4407 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 S 4 8 4407 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 SSW 5 9 4407 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 SSW 5 9 4407 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 SSW 5 9 3440 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 S 5 9 3440 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 36 S 5 9 2867 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 37 S 5 9 3440 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 38 SSW 8 12 4407 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 39 39 SSW 8 12 5031 3700 0 White 1
12 Noon Mon 40 40 SSW 8 12 5252 3700 0 White 2
1 PM Mon 39 39 WSW 5 9 5031 3700 0 White 1
2 PM Mon 39 39 WSW 5 9 5031 3700 0 White 1
3 PM Mon 40 40 WSW 5 9 5252 3700 0 White 2
4 PM Mon 39 39 WSW 6 10 5031 3700 0 White 1
5 PM Mon 39 39 WSW 6 10 5031 3700 0 White 1
6 PM Mon 39 39 WSW 6 10 5031 3700 0 White 1
7 PM Mon 37 37 S 3 6 3440 3700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 S 3 6 2867 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 36 36 S 3 6 2867 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 35 35 S 3 6 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 S 3 6 3440 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 S 3 6 2867 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 SSE 4 8 2867 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 35 SSE 4 8 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 34 SSE 4 8 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 33 33 SSE 4 8 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 32 32 SSE 4 8 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 SSE 4 8 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 SSE 3 6 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 33 33 SSE 3 6 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 34 34 SSE 3 6 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 37 37 ESE 3 6 3440 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 39 39 ESE 3 6 5031 3700 0 White 1
12 Noon Tue 41 41 ESE 3 6 5471 4370 670 White 3
1 PM Tue 42 42 SSW 3 6 5689 5412 1712 White 4
2 PM Tue 43 43 SSW 3 6 5907 5828 2128 White 5
3 PM Tue 43 43 SSW 3 6 5907 5828 2128 White 5
4 PM Tue 43 43 SSE 4 8 5907 5828 2128 White 5
5 PM Tue 42 42 SSE 4 8 5689 5412 1712 White 4
6 PM Tue 42 42 SSE 4 8 5689 5412 1712 White 4
7 PM Tue 41 41 S 10 16 5471 4370 670 White 3
8 PM Tue 41 41 S 10 16 5471 4370 670 White 3
9 PM Tue 41 41 S 10 16 5471 4370 670 White 3
10 PM Tue 41 41 SSE 13 20 5471 4370 670 White 3
11 PM Tue 41 41 SSE 13 20 5471 4370 670 White 3
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 SSE 13 20 5471 4370 670 White 3
1 AM Wed 41 41 S 16 24 5471 4370 670 White 3
2 AM Wed 41 41 S 16 24 5471 4370 670 White 3
3 AM Wed 41 41 S 16 24 5471 4370 670 White 3
4 AM Wed 41 41 S 14 23 5471 4370 670 White 3
5 AM Wed 40 40 S 14 23 5252 3700 0 White 2
6 AM Wed 40 40 S 14 23 5252 3700 0 White 2
7 AM Wed 40 40 S 12 19 5252 3700 0 White 2
8 AM Wed 40 40 S 12 19 5252 3700 0 White 2
9 AM Wed 41 41 S 12 19 5471 4370 670 White 3
10 AM Wed 41 41 S 11 17 5471 4370 670 White 3
11 AM Wed 42 42 S 11 17 5689 5412 1712 White 4
12 Noon Wed 42 42 S 11 17 5689 5412 1712 White 4
1 PM Wed 42 42 SW 10 16 5689 5412 1712 White 4
2 PM Wed 42 42 SW 10 16 5689 5412 1712 White 4
3 PM Wed 41 41 SW 10 16 5471 4370 670 White 3
4 PM Wed 40 40 WSW 11 17 5252 3700 0 White 2
5 PM Wed 40 40 WSW 11 17 5252 3700 0 White 2
6 PM Wed 39 39 WSW 11 17 5031 3700 0 White 1
7 PM Wed 39 39 WSW 11 17 5031 3700 0 White 1
8 PM Wed 38 38 WSW 11 17 4407 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 WSW 11 17 4407 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 WSW 9 13 3440 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 WSW 9 13 3440 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 WSW 9 13 3440 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 WSW 8 12 2867 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 WSW 8 12 2867 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 8 12 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 S 6 10 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 S 6 10 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 S 6 10 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 SSW 5 9 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 SSW 5 9 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 36 36 SSW 5 9 2867 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 38 N 4 8 4407 3700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 40 41 N 4 8 5471 4370 670 White 3
12 Noon Thu 43 44 N 4 8 6125 6125 2425 White 6
1 PM Thu 45 47 NNE 5 9 6777 6777 3077 White 9
2 PM Thu 46 47 NNE 5 9 6777 6777 3077 White 9
3 PM Thu 46 47 NNE 5 9 6777 6777 3077 White 9
4 PM Thu 46 46 NNE 5 9 6560 6560 2860 White 8
5 PM Thu 44 44 NNE 5 9 6125 6125 2425 White 6
6 PM Thu 42 42 NNE 5 9 5689 5412 1712 White 4
7 PM Thu 40 40 E 4 8 5252 3700 0 White 2
8 PM Thu 38 38 E 4 8 4407 3700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 37 E 4 8 3440 3700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 37 37 SE 4 8 3440 3700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 36 36 SE 4 8 2867 3700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 SE 4 8 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 34 34 SE 5 9 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 SE 5 9 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 SE 5 9 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 SE 6 10 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 SE 6 10 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 SE 6 10 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 SE 5 9 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 SE 5 9 2627 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 SE 5 9 4407 3700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 42 SE 4 8 5689 5412 1712 White 4
11 AM Fri 44 45 SE 4 8 6343 6343 2643 White 7
12 Noon Fri 47 48 SE 4 8 6993 6993 3293 White 10
1 PM Fri 50 51 E 3 6 7631 7631 3931 White 13
2 PM Fri 51 52 E 3 6 7843 7843 4143 White 14
3 PM Fri 52 52 E 3 6 7843 7843 4143 White 14
4 PM Fri 52 52 NE 4 8 7843 7843 4143 White 14
5 PM Fri 50 50 NE 4 8 7419 7419 3719 White 12
6 PM Fri 49 49 NE 4 8 7206 7206 3506 White 11
7 PM Fri 46 46 SSE 4 8 6560 6560 2860 White 8
8 PM Fri 44 44 SSE 4 8 6125 6125 2425 White 6
9 PM Fri 42 42 SSE 4 8 5689 5412 1712 White 4
10 PM Fri 41 41 SSE 5 9 5471 4370 670 White 3
11 PM Fri 40 40 SSE 5 9 5252 3700 0 White 2
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 SSE 5 9 5252 3700 0 White 2
1 AM Sat 40 40 SSE 6 10 5252 3700 0 White 2
2 AM Sat 39 39 SSE 6 10 5031 3700 0 White 1
3 AM Sat 39 39 SSE 6 10 5031 3700 0 White 1
4 AM Sat 38 38 SSE 6 11 4407 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 SSE 6 11 4407 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 SSE 6 11 3440 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 SSE 8 11 4407 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 SSE 8 11 5252 3700 0 White 2
9 AM Sat 42 42 SSE 8 11 5689 5412 1712 White 4
10 AM Sat 45 46 SE 6 10 6560 6560 2860 White 8
11 AM Sat 48 49 SE 6 10 7206 7206 3506 White 11
12 Noon Sat 51 52 SE 6 10 7843 7843 4143 White 14
1 PM Sat 53 54 SE 6 10 8266 8266 4566 White 16
2 PM Sat 54 55 SE 6 10 8477 8477 4777 White 17
3 PM Sat 55 55 SE 6 10 8477 8477 4777 White 17
4 PM Sat 54 54 WSW 8 11 8266 8266 4566 White 16
5 PM Sat 53 53 WSW 8 11 8055 8055 4355 White 15
6 PM Sat 50 50 WSW 8 11 7419 7419 3719 White 12
7 PM Sat 48 48 S 8 12 6993 6993 3293 White 10
8 PM Sat 48 48 S 8 12 6993 6993 3293 White 10
9 PM Sat 47 47 S 8 12 6777 6777 3077 White 9
10 PM Sat 47 47 S 10 14 6777 6777 3077 White 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]