Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.2086, -110.9942, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 E 6 12 3092 2827 57 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 51 51 E 6 14 3053 2770 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 51 51 E 6 14 3053 2770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 50 50 E 6 13 2977 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 E 6 13 2977 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 E 6 13 2977 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 E 7 15 2977 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 SE 6 15 2733 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 ESE 7 15 2977 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 53 ESE 6 14 3163 2976 206 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 56 57 ESE 6 12 3327 3271 501 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 60 60 ESE 7 9 3384 3327 557 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 64 64 ESE 6 7 3930 3568 798 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 66 66 ESE 6 7 4084 3813 1043 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 68 68 SE 5 5 4199 4039 1269 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 70 70 SE 3 3 4515 4125 1355 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 69 69 SE 2 2 4434 4082 1312 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 67 67 N 1 2 4127 3926 1156 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 64 64 NNE 3 6 3930 3568 798 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 62 62 N 2 5 3704 3365 595 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 60 60 NNE 1 3 3384 3327 557 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 59 59 NE 0 1 3365 3308 538 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 58 58 ESE 1 3 3346 3289 519 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 58 58 ESE 3 6 3346 3289 519 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 SE 2 5 3327 3271 501 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 57 57 SE 4 8 3327 3271 501 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 57 57 SE 4 10 3327 3271 501 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 57 57 SE 5 11 3327 3271 501 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 56 56 SE 5 10 3309 3161 391 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 56 56 SE 4 8 3309 3161 391 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 56 56 SE 4 8 3309 3161 391 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 55 55 SE 4 10 3290 3092 322 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 56 56 SE 4 8 3309 3161 391 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 58 58 SE 4 10 3346 3289 519 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 61 62 SE 5 9 3704 3365 595 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 63 64 SE 5 6 3930 3568 798 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 65 67 SSE 4 5 4127 3926 1156 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 67 69 S 5 5 4434 4082 1312 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 69 71 S 6 7 4585 4188 1418 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 70 71 SSW 6 7 4585 4188 1418 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 70 70 SSW 10 11 4515 4125 1355 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 68 68 SW 12 13 4199 4039 1269 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 65 65 SW 9 17 4040 3700 930 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 62 62 SW 7 15 3704 3365 595 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 60 60 SSW 6 13 3384 3327 557 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 59 59 S 3 8 3365 3308 538 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 57 57 SSE 3 7 3327 3271 501 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 56 56 SSE 4 8 3309 3161 391 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 SE 2 4 3290 3092 322 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 54 54 SE 4 8 3271 3053 283 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 53 53 SE 4 8 3163 2976 206 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 52 52 SE 3 8 3092 2827 57 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 52 52 S 1 3 3092 2827 57 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 51 51 SSE 2 5 3053 2770 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 50 50 SSE 2 6 2977 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 SE 3 8 2977 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 SE 4 9 2977 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 53 SE 3 7 3163 2976 206 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 56 57 SSE 3 4 3327 3271 501 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 58 60 SSE 3 4 3384 3327 557 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 60 63 SSW 3 4 3817 3383 613 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 62 65 SW 4 5 4040 3700 930 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 64 66 WSW 4 4 4084 3813 1043 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 64 65 W 6 7 4040 3700 930 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 64 64 WNW 11 13 3930 3568 798 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 63 63 WNW 12 14 3817 3383 613 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 60 60 NW 9 11 3384 3327 557 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 58 58 NW 7 12 3346 3289 519 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 56 56 NNW 5 9 3309 3161 391 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 54 54 NNW 3 7 3271 3053 283 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 53 53 NW 3 6 3163 2976 206 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 52 52 WNW 3 7 3092 2827 57 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]