Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.2086, -110.9942, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 31 MAY 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 SSW 4 5 2745 2770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 71 71 SSE 2 3 2649 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 67 67 SSE 2 4 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 SSE 3 4 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 SSE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 SSE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 SSE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 68 SSE 8 11 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 74 SSE 10 13 2745 2770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 79 83 S 11 17 9022 7602 4832 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 84 91 S 13 19 12195 10588 7818 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 87 95 SSW 17 25 14539 12638 9868 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 89 98 SSW 17 25 15343 14429 11659 White 29
1 PM Wed 90 99 SW 18 27 15540 14695 11925 White 30
2 PM Wed 91 99 SW 18 27 15540 14695 11925 White 30
3 PM Wed 90 96 SW 18 26 14806 13267 10497 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 90 93 WSW 18 26 13493 11272 8502 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 89 91 WSW 19 29 12195 10588 7818 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 87 87 WSW 18 27 10448 9351 6581 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 83 83 WSW 18 26 9022 7602 4832 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 81 81 WSW 18 26 8162 5558 2788 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 78 78 WSW 13 21 5585 3589 819 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 76 76 SW 10 16 4553 2770 0 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 73 73 SSW 5 10 2713 2770 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 S 5 8 2649 2770 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 68 68 S 4 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 SSE 4 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 SSE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 SE 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 SE 5 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 SE 4 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 66 SSE 5 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 72 SSE 5 10 2681 2770 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 76 81 S 5 8 8162 5558 2788 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 79 86 SSW 5 8 10258 8932 6162 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 82 90 SW 6 10 11488 10399 7629 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 85 94 WSW 8 11 14096 11975 9205 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 87 95 W 9 12 14539 12638 9868 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 88 95 W 10 13 14539 12638 9868 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 89 94 W 11 16 14096 11975 9205 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 89 92 WNW 11 17 12861 10776 8006 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 89 90 WNW 11 18 11488 10399 7629 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 87 87 WNW 11 17 10448 9351 6581 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 85 85 W 11 16 9862 8505 5735 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 83 83 W 10 13 9022 7602 4832 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 81 81 W 10 13 8162 5558 2788 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 78 78 W 9 13 5585 3589 819 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 76 76 W 8 12 4553 2770 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 WSW 6 10 2745 2770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 71 71 S 4 8 2649 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 68 68 SSE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 SSE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 SSE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 SE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 SSE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 69 S 4 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 74 S 4 5 2745 2770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 76 80 SSW 4 6 7965 5288 2518 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 81 88 WSW 5 8 10639 9763 6993 Blue 19
11 AM Fri 85 93 W 5 9 13493 11272 8502 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 88 97 W 5 10 15071 13866 11096 Blue 28
1 PM Fri 89 98 W 6 11 15343 14429 11659 White 29
2 PM Fri 90 98 W 8 12 15343 14429 11659 White 29
3 PM Fri 92 98 WNW 9 14 15343 14429 11659 White 29
4 PM Fri 92 95 WNW 11 17 14539 12638 9868 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 91 93 WNW 12 18 13493 11272 8502 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 89 89 NW 12 19 10828 10209 7439 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 87 87 NW 12 19 10448 9351 6581 Blue 18
8 PM Fri 84 84 NW 11 18 9446 8130 5360 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 82 82 NW 10 16 8591 5828 3058 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 80 80 NW 8 12 7965 5288 2518 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 77 77 WNW 6 10 5313 2770 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 W 5 9 2745 2770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 71 71 WSW 4 8 2649 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 69 69 SW 4 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 66 SSW 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 SSE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 ESE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 66 SE 3 5 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 69 70 SE 3 6 2612 2770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 73 75 SSE 4 8 3625 2770 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 78 82 S 5 9 8591 5828 3058 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 84 91 W 6 10 12195 10588 7818 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 88 96 WNW 8 11 14806 13267 10497 Blue 27
12 Noon Sat 91 100 WNW 9 12 15737 14958 12188 White 31
1 PM Sat 93 102 WNW 9 13 16130 16130 13360 White 33
2 PM Sat 94 102 WNW 10 14 16130 16130 13360 White 33
3 PM Sat 96 102 WNW 11 16 16130 16130 13360 White 33
4 PM Sat 96 99 WNW 11 17 15540 14695 11925 White 30
5 PM Sat 95 97 WNW 11 17 15071 13866 11096 Blue 28
6 PM Sat 94 94 NW 11 17 14096 11975 9205 Blue 25
7 PM Sat 91 91 NW 10 16 12195 10588 7818 Blue 22
8 PM Sat 88 88 NNW 9 14 10639 9763 6993 Blue 19
9 PM Sat 86 86 NW 9 13 10258 8932 6162 Blue 17
10 PM Sat 84 84 WNW 8 12 9446 8130 5360 Blue 15
11 PM Sat 81 81 W 8 11 8162 5558 2788 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 78 78 W 6 10 5585 3589 819 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 74 74 WSW 6 9 2745 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 71 71 SW 5 8 2649 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 69 69 SSW 4 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 SSE 4 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 SE 4 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 69 SE 4 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 73 SE 4 8 2713 2770 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 76 78 SE 5 8 5585 3589 819 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 82 86 S 6 9 10258 8932 6162 Blue 17
10 AM Sun 87 93 W 6 10 13493 11272 8502 Blue 24
11 AM Sun 92 100 WNW 8 12 15737 14958 12188 White 31
12 Noon Sun 96 105 WNW 9 13 16712 16712 13942 White 36
1 PM Sun 98 107 WNW 10 16 17098 17098 14328 White 38
2 PM Sun 99 106 W 11 17 16906 16906 14136 White 37
3 PM Sun 100 105 W 11 18 16712 16712 13942 White 36
4 PM Sun 101 104 W 11 19 16519 16519 13749 White 35
5 PM Sun 100 101 W 11 19 15934 15934 13164 White 32
6 PM Sun 97 97 W 11 19 15071 13866 11096 Blue 28
7 PM Sun 94 94 WNW 11 18 14096 11975 9205 Blue 25
8 PM Sun 91 91 WNW 11 17 12195 10588 7818 Blue 22
9 PM Sun 88 88 WNW 10 14 10639 9763 6993 Blue 19
10 PM Sun 85 85 W 8 13 9862 8505 5735 Blue 16
11 PM Sun 82 82 W 6 11 8591 5828 3058 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 79 79 WSW 5 10 5857 4495 1725 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 76 76 S 5 9 4553 2770 0 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 73 73 SSE 5 8 2713 2770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 70 70 SSE 5 8 2612 2770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 68 68 SE 5 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 SE 5 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 SE 5 8 2612 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 73 74 SE 5 9 2745 2770 0 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 77 79 SE 6 10 5857 4495 1725 Blue 10
9 AM Mon 83 87 SSE 8 11 10448 9351 6581 Blue 18
10 AM Mon 90 96 SSE 9 13 14806 13267 10497 Blue 27
11 AM Mon 95 103 S 10 16 16327 16327 13557 White 34
12 Noon Mon 98 106 S 11 17 16906 16906 14136 White 37
1 PM Mon 99 106 SSW 12 19 16906 16906 14136 White 37
2 PM Mon 99 104 SW 13 20 16519 16519 13749 White 35
3 PM Mon 100 104 SW 14 23 16519 16519 13749 White 35
4 PM Mon 99 101 SW 16 24 15934 15934 13164 White 32
5 PM Mon 98 99 SW 16 25 15540 14695 11925 White 30
6 PM Mon 96 96 SW 16 25 14806 13267 10497 Blue 27
7 PM Mon 93 93 WSW 16 25 13493 11272 8502 Blue 24
8 PM Mon 90 90 WSW 14 23 11488 10399 7629 Blue 21
9 PM Mon 87 87 SW 12 19 10448 9351 6581 Blue 18
10 PM Mon 85 85 SSW 10 14 9862 8505 5735 Blue 16

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]