Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.8125, -110.7742, 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 ESE 9 19 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 ESE 10 21 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 ESE 9 20 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 ESE 9 20 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 ESE 9 20 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 ESE 9 20 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 ESE 10 21 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 SE 6 20 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 ESE 10 21 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 ESE 9 20 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 54 ESE 9 17 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 59 ESE 9 12 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 61 ESE 8 9 7003 6200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 64 64 ESE 8 9 9225 6982 782 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 66 66 ESE 6 7 10219 8475 2275 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 68 68 E 3 4 11613 9732 3532 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 67 67 ENE 2 3 10911 9160 2960 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 63 63 NE 4 6 8527 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 59 ENE 6 13 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 57 E 4 10 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 ESE 4 8 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 SE 3 8 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 ESE 4 8 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 ESE 5 12 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 ESE 5 11 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 SE 5 11 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 SE 6 13 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 SE 6 13 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 ESE 6 14 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 SE 6 12 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 ESE 6 13 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 SE 6 13 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 SE 6 13 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 55 ESE 6 13 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 58 SE 5 9 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 63 SE 5 7 8527 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 64 S 3 4 9225 6982 782 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 65 WSW 4 4 9788 7751 1551 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 66 67 WSW 5 6 10911 9160 2960 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 67 68 SW 5 6 11613 9732 3532 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 67 67 SW 7 8 10911 9160 2960 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 63 63 SW 8 10 8527 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 59 SW 6 12 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 56 SSW 6 12 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 SSW 4 10 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 SSE 2 6 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 SSE 3 7 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 SE 3 8 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 SE 3 7 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 SSE 4 8 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 SE 6 12 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 SE 6 12 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 SE 5 11 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 SE 4 8 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 SSE 4 8 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 SE 4 8 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 SE 4 9 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 49 SE 5 10 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 SE 3 5 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 58 SSE 3 3 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 62 SW 4 4 7790 6200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 64 W 8 9 9225 6982 782 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 64 W 9 10 9225 6982 782 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 63 64 WSW 12 14 9225 6982 782 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 62 WSW 16 18 7790 6200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 59 W 15 17 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 55 WNW 11 16 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 NW 6 14 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 W 5 11 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 WSW 5 11 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 SW 4 10 5341 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 SW 4 10 5341 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]