Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.427, -111.3895, 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

27 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 SSE 5 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 S 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 S 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 S 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 SSE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 SE 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 SSE 4 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 SSE 4 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 47 SSE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 56 SE 4 6 3735 2970 870 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 58 62 SE 3 5 6162 4230 2130 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 62 68 NE 5 8 9620 8241 6141 White 19
12 Noon Wed 65 72 NNW 5 9 10457 10457 8357 White 23
1 PM Wed 68 75 NNW 6 10 11061 11061 8961 White 26
2 PM Wed 70 76 NNW 6 10 11261 11261 9161 White 27
3 PM Wed 70 74 NNW 6 10 10859 10859 8759 White 25
4 PM Wed 70 72 N 6 10 10457 10457 8357 White 23
5 PM Wed 71 71 N 5 9 10255 10255 8155 White 22
6 PM Wed 68 68 N 5 9 9620 8241 6141 White 19
7 PM Wed 64 64 N 5 8 7874 4945 2845 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 59 59 N 5 8 4248 3708 1608 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 56 56 N 4 5 3735 2970 870 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 54 54 ENE 3 5 3071 2839 739 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 52 52 ESE 3 5 2923 2498 398 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SSE 4 5 2677 2470 370 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 49 49 SE 4 5 2501 2470 370 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 SSE 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 SSE 4 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 SSE 4 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 SSE 5 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 SSE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 S 5 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 SSE 5 8 2501 2470 370 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 SE 5 9 4248 3708 1608 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 65 67 SE 5 9 9413 7783 5683 White 18
11 AM Thu 69 72 SE 5 9 10457 10457 8357 White 23
12 Noon Thu 73 76 S 6 10 11261 11261 9161 White 27
1 PM Thu 76 79 SW 6 10 11858 11858 9758 White 30
2 PM Thu 77 79 W 8 11 11858 11858 9758 White 30
3 PM Thu 79 80 W 8 11 12055 12055 9955 White 31
4 PM Thu 80 81 W 8 11 12252 12252 10152 White 32
5 PM Thu 79 79 W 8 11 11858 11858 9758 White 30
6 PM Thu 75 75 W 6 11 11061 11061 8961 White 26
7 PM Thu 70 70 WSW 6 10 10050 10050 7950 White 21
8 PM Thu 65 65 SW 5 10 8337 6022 3922 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 62 62 SW 5 10 6162 4230 2130 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 60 60 SSW 6 9 4498 3792 1692 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 58 58 SSW 6 9 3970 3288 1188 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 S 5 8 3735 2970 870 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 54 54 S 5 8 3071 2839 739 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 53 53 S 4 6 2971 2676 576 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 51 51 S 4 6 2844 2470 370 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 50 50 SSE 4 6 2677 2470 370 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 49 49 SSE 5 6 2501 2470 370 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 SSE 4 6 2677 2470 370 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 52 52 SSE 4 6 2923 2498 398 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 55 55 SSE 5 8 3297 2922 822 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 60 62 S 8 12 6162 4230 2130 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 66 69 SSW 11 17 9833 9833 7733 White 20
11 AM Fri 72 77 SW 13 21 11462 11462 9362 White 28
12 Noon Fri 75 81 SW 16 24 12252 12252 10152 White 32
1 PM Fri 77 82 SW 17 25 12449 12449 10349 White 33
2 PM Fri 78 82 SW 18 26 12449 12449 10349 White 33
3 PM Fri 79 82 SW 19 29 12449 12449 10349 White 33
4 PM Fri 78 80 SW 21 33 12055 12055 9955 White 31
5 PM Fri 77 77 SW 21 34 11462 11462 9362 White 28
6 PM Fri 73 73 SW 21 33 10659 10659 8559 White 24
7 PM Fri 69 69 SW 20 29 9833 9833 7733 White 20
8 PM Fri 65 65 SW 18 26 8337 6022 3922 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 62 62 SSW 16 24 6162 4230 2130 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 60 60 S 13 20 4498 3792 1692 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 58 58 S 11 18 3970 3288 1188 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 S 10 16 3735 2970 870 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 55 55 SSE 9 12 3297 2922 822 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 53 53 SSE 8 11 2971 2676 576 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 52 52 SSE 8 10 2923 2498 398 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 51 51 SE 8 10 2844 2470 370 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 51 51 SE 8 11 2844 2470 370 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 51 51 SSE 8 11 2844 2470 370 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 53 53 SSE 9 12 2971 2676 576 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 56 56 SSE 10 14 3735 2970 870 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 61 62 S 12 18 6162 4230 2130 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 66 68 S 16 23 9620 8241 6141 White 19
11 AM Sat 70 73 S 18 27 10659 10659 8559 White 24
12 Noon Sat 73 77 SSW 19 29 11462 11462 9362 White 28
1 PM Sat 74 77 SSW 20 32 11462 11462 9362 White 28
2 PM Sat 75 78 SSW 21 33 11659 11659 9559 White 29
3 PM Sat 75 77 SSW 23 34 11462 11462 9362 White 28
4 PM Sat 74 75 SSW 24 35 11061 11061 8961 White 26
5 PM Sat 73 73 SSW 24 35 10659 10659 8559 White 24
6 PM Sat 70 70 SSW 21 33 10050 10050 7950 White 21
7 PM Sat 66 66 SW 19 29 9207 6983 4883 White 17
8 PM Sat 62 62 SW 17 26 6162 4230 2130 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 60 60 SW 16 24 4498 3792 1692 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 59 59 SSW 16 23 4248 3708 1608 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 58 58 SSW 14 21 3970 3288 1188 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 SSW 13 20 3735 2970 870 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 55 55 SSW 12 18 3297 2922 822 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 54 54 SSW 11 17 3071 2839 739 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 52 52 SSW 11 16 2923 2498 398 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 51 51 SSW 11 16 2844 2470 370 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 50 50 SSW 11 16 2677 2470 370 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 50 50 SSW 11 17 2677 2470 370 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 50 50 S 12 18 2677 2470 370 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 52 52 S 13 20 2923 2498 398 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 54 55 SSW 14 23 3297 2922 822 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 57 58 SW 16 25 3970 3288 1188 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 58 59 SW 17 26 4248 3708 1608 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 59 61 SW 17 26 5044 3951 1851 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 58 60 WSW 17 26 4498 3792 1692 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 58 59 WSW 17 26 4248 3708 1608 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 58 59 WSW 18 26 4248 3708 1608 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 59 59 SW 18 26 4248 3708 1608 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 58 58 SW 18 26 3970 3288 1188 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 56 56 SW 17 24 3735 2970 870 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 54 54 SSW 14 21 3071 2839 739 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 52 52 SSW 12 19 2923 2498 398 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 50 50 SSW 11 18 2677 2470 370 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 49 49 S 10 17 2501 2470 370 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 S 10 16 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 S 10 14 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 S 9 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 SSE 9 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 SSE 9 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 S 9 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 S 9 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 S 9 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 S 10 14 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 S 10 16 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 50 S 11 17 2677 2470 370 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 53 55 SSW 11 18 3297 2922 822 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 56 58 SSW 12 19 3970 3288 1188 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 57 59 SW 13 19 4248 3708 1608 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 58 60 SW 13 19 4498 3792 1692 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 58 60 WSW 13 19 4498 3792 1692 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 58 59 WSW 13 19 4248 3708 1608 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 57 57 W 12 19 3795 3063 963 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 55 55 W 11 18 3297 2922 822 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 54 54 WSW 10 17 3071 2839 739 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 51 51 SSW 9 14 2844 2470 370 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 50 50 S 8 12 2677 2470 370 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 49 49 S 6 11 2501 2470 370 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 SSE 6 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]