Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.427, -111.3895, 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 SSE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 S 5 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 S 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 SSE 4 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 SSE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 SSE 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 SSE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 SE 4 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 38 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 45 SE 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 54 SE 5 9 2968 2625 525 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 62 63 ESE 5 9 3362 3306 1206 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 66 67 ESE 5 9 3798 3380 1280 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 69 70 ESE 5 9 4075 3791 1691 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 72 72 SE 5 8 4161 4015 1915 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 72 72 NNW 5 6 4161 4015 1915 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 71 71 NNW 5 8 4118 3903 1803 Blue 24
5 PM Mon 66 66 NW 5 9 3685 3362 1262 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 60 60 NW 5 9 3306 3147 1047 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 57 57 WNW 4 6 3152 2963 863 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 55 55 S 4 5 3051 2688 588 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 54 54 SSE 3 5 2968 2625 525 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 51 51 S 3 5 2410 2410 310 White 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 S 4 5 2185 2185 85 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 S 4 5 2027 2100 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 SSE 4 5 2027 2100 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 S 4 6 2027 2100 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 S 4 6 2027 2100 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 S 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 S 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 S 5 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 S 5 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 SSE 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 52 SSE 5 9 2632 2560 460 White 5
10 AM Tue 59 59 SSE 6 10 3288 3088 988 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 66 67 SSE 8 11 3798 3380 1280 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 71 72 S 9 12 4161 4015 1915 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 73 74 SW 9 13 4498 4115 2015 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 74 75 WSW 9 13 4568 4158 2058 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 74 74 WSW 9 12 4498 4115 2015 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 72 72 W 8 11 4161 4015 1915 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 68 68 WNW 6 10 3910 3523 1423 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 64 64 W 6 9 3381 3324 1224 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 59 59 SSW 5 9 3288 3088 988 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 55 55 S 5 8 3051 2688 588 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 52 52 S 5 6 2632 2560 460 White 5
10 PM Tue 50 50 SSE 4 5 2185 2185 85 White 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 SSE 4 5 2027 2100 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 SSE 4 5 2027 2100 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 SSE 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 SSE 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 SSE 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 SSE 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 SSE 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 SSE 5 8 2027 2100 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 S 5 8 2968 2625 525 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 60 62 S 5 8 3344 3287 1187 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 64 67 SSW 6 9 3798 3380 1280 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 66 68 WSW 6 11 3910 3523 1423 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 67 69 W 8 12 4022 3679 1579 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 67 68 WNW 9 13 3910 3523 1423 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 65 65 NW 10 14 3536 3343 1243 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 63 63 NW 10 14 3362 3306 1206 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 59 59 NNW 9 14 3288 3088 988 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 56 56 NNW 8 12 3089 2816 716 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 52 52 N 6 11 2632 2560 460 White 5
9 PM Wed 50 50 NNE 5 9 2185 2185 85 White 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 ESE 5 6 2027 2100 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 SSE 4 5 2027 2100 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 SSE 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 SE 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 SE 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 SE 3 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 SE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 44 ESE 4 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 51 ENE 4 6 2410 2410 310 White 0
11 AM Thu 56 58 NE 5 8 3269 3050 950 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 60 63 NE 6 9 3362 3306 1206 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 63 66 N 8 11 3685 3362 1262 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 64 66 N 9 12 3685 3362 1262 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 64 65 N 9 12 3536 3343 1243 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 63 63 NNW 9 12 3362 3306 1206 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 61 61 NNW 8 11 3325 3268 1168 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 58 58 N 6 10 3269 3050 950 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 55 55 N 6 10 3051 2688 588 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 52 52 N 5 9 2632 2560 460 White 5
9 PM Thu 50 50 NNE 5 9 2185 2185 85 White 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 ENE 5 9 2027 2100 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 E 5 9 2027 2100 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 E 5 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 E 4 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 ESE 4 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 ESE 4 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 ESE 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 ESE 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 ESE 5 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 ESE 6 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 ESE 6 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 ESE 8 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 53 E 8 11 2820 2592 492 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 58 60 E 9 12 3306 3147 1047 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 63 66 E 10 13 3685 3362 1262 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 66 69 ENE 10 14 4022 3679 1579 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 67 69 ENE 10 16 4022 3679 1579 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 67 68 ENE 9 14 3910 3523 1423 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 66 66 NE 9 13 3685 3362 1262 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 64 64 NE 8 12 3381 3324 1224 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 61 61 ENE 8 12 3325 3268 1168 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 58 58 E 9 12 3269 3050 950 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 55 55 E 9 12 3051 2688 588 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 52 52 E 9 13 2632 2560 460 White 5
10 PM Fri 50 50 ESE 9 13 2185 2185 85 White 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 ESE 9 14 2027 2100 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 ESE 9 14 2027 2100 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 ESE 9 13 2027 2100 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 ESE 9 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 ESE 9 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 ESE 9 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 ESE 9 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 ESE 9 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 ESE 9 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 ESE 9 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 48 ESE 10 14 2027 2100 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 54 55 ESE 10 17 3051 2688 588 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 60 61 ESE 11 18 3325 3268 1168 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 64 66 ESE 12 19 3685 3362 1262 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 67 69 E 12 19 4022 3679 1579 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 68 69 E 12 19 4022 3679 1579 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 68 68 E 12 18 3910 3523 1423 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 67 67 E 11 16 3798 3380 1280 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 65 65 E 10 14 3536 3343 1243 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 62 62 E 10 13 3344 3287 1187 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 59 59 E 9 13 3288 3088 988 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 56 56 E 9 13 3089 2816 716 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 54 54 E 9 13 2968 2625 525 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 52 52 ESE 9 12 2632 2560 460 White 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]