Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8133, -113.35, 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 78 78 NNE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 77 77 NE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 77 77 NE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 76 76 E 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 76 76 E 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 76 76 ESE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 76 76 ESE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 75 75 ESE 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 77 77 E 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 80 81 E 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 82 85 ESE 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 85 89 ESE 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 87 92 ESE 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 88 92 ESE 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 89 92 SE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 89 91 SSE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 88 89 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 87 87 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 83 83 SSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 81 81 S 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 80 80 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 79 79 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 78 78 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 77 77 NNE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 77 77 ENE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 76 76 E 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 75 75 E 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 75 75 E 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 74 74 E 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 74 74 ESE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 74 74 E 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 73 73 E 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 74 74 E 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 78 78 ESE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 79 80 ESE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 82 85 ESE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 83 87 SE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 84 87 SSE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 85 88 SSE 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 84 86 S 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 84 85 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 83 83 SSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 81 81 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 78 78 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 76 76 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 75 75 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 75 75 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 74 74 N 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 N 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 72 72 N 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 72 72 N 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 71 71 NNE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 71 71 NNE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 70 70 NE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 71 71 NE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 72 72 ENE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 73 73 ENE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 76 77 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 80 83 ESE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 83 87 SE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 84 89 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 85 89 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 86 90 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 85 87 SSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 84 85 SW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 84 84 SW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 81 81 WSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 78 78 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 75 75 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 74 74 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 73 73 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 72 72 N 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 N 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 71 71 NNE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 70 70 NNE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 70 70 NNE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 70 70 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 69 69 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 71 71 NE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 72 72 NE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 73 73 NE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 76 77 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 79 82 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 82 86 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 83 88 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 84 89 SSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 85 89 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 84 87 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 84 85 SW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 83 83 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 81 81 WSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 78 78 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 75 75 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 74 74 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 73 73 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 72 72 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 71 71 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 71 71 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 70 70 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 70 70 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 69 69 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 70 70 NNE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 71 71 NE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 72 72 NE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 75 76 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 78 81 SE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 81 85 SSE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 82 87 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 83 88 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 84 88 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 83 85 SSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 83 84 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 82 82 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 80 80 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 77 77 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 75 75 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 74 74 WNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 73 73 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 72 72 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 71 71 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 71 71 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 70 70 N 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 70 70 N 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 69 69 N 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 71 71 NNE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 72 72 NE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 73 73 NE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 76 77 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 79 82 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 81 85 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 82 87 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 83 88 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 84 88 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 83 86 WSW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 82 83 WSW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 82 82 WSW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 79 79 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 77 77 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 74 74 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 73 73 WNW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 72 72 NW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]