Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8133, -113.35, 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 85 85 E 9 11 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 85 85 E 8 10 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 83 83 E 8 10 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 83 83 ESE 8 10 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 82 82 SE 8 10 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 82 82 SE 6 10 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 81 81 SE 8 10 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 83 83 SSE 8 10 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 83 85 S 9 11 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 85 89 S 9 13 8603 5680 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 86 91 S 10 14 11324 6525 845 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 87 94 S 11 16 14487 11087 5407 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 90 99 S 12 16 18833 16904 11224 White 11
1 PM Sat 91 100 S 12 16 19033 18612 12932 White 12
2 PM Sat 92 100 SSW 12 16 19033 18612 12932 White 12
3 PM Sat 92 98 SSW 12 16 18636 16051 10371 White 10
4 PM Sat 93 97 SSW 12 16 18439 14021 8341 White 9
5 PM Sat 92 93 SW 11 14 12759 9782 4102 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 91 91 SW 12 14 11324 6525 845 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 90 90 SW 12 16 9994 5680 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 86 86 WSW 13 17 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 85 85 W 13 17 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 84 84 W 13 17 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 83 83 WNW 12 16 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 83 83 W 10 13 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 82 82 W 9 12 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 81 81 WNW 9 10 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 80 80 SW 8 10 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 79 79 WSW 6 9 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 79 79 NW 5 9 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 78 78 S 5 9 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 77 77 S 6 10 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 79 81 S 8 11 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 80 83 S 9 12 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 82 87 SSW 9 12 4608 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 84 89 SSW 10 13 8603 5680 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 86 92 SW 10 13 11552 8405 2725 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 88 94 SW 11 14 14487 11087 5407 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 90 96 SW 11 14 18242 12174 6494 White 8
3 PM Sun 90 94 WSW 11 14 14487 11087 5407 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 91 93 WSW 12 16 12759 9782 4102 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 91 92 W 12 16 11552 8405 2725 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 89 89 W 12 16 8603 5680 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 87 87 W 13 17 4608 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 85 85 W 13 17 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 84 84 WSW 13 17 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 83 83 SW 13 17 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 82 82 SSW 12 16 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 81 81 SSW 11 14 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 80 80 SSW 10 12 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 79 79 SSW 9 11 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 79 79 S 8 9 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 78 78 SSE 6 8 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 77 77 SE 5 6 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 78 78 SE 5 6 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 78 78 SSE 5 8 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 79 80 S 5 9 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 80 82 S 6 10 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 82 86 SSW 8 11 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 84 89 SSW 9 12 8603 5680 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 86 91 SW 10 13 11324 6525 845 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 88 93 SW 10 14 12759 9782 4102 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 90 95 WSW 11 16 16547 11501 5821 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 90 94 WSW 11 16 14487 11087 5407 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 90 92 W 12 16 11552 8405 2725 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 90 91 W 12 16 11324 6525 845 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 88 88 W 12 16 6688 5680 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 87 87 W 12 16 4608 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 85 85 W 12 16 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 84 84 W 12 16 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 84 84 WSW 13 17 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 83 83 WSW 13 17 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 82 82 WSW 12 17 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 81 81 WSW 11 16 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 80 80 WSW 10 14 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 80 80 SW 9 12 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 79 79 S 6 9 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 78 78 SSE 5 6 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 79 79 S 5 6 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 80 80 S 5 6 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 80 81 S 5 8 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 82 85 S 6 9 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 84 89 SSW 8 11 8603 5680 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 86 93 SW 9 12 12759 9782 4102 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 88 96 SW 10 13 18242 12174 6494 White 8
1 PM Tue 89 97 WSW 10 14 18439 14021 8341 White 9
2 PM Tue 91 98 WSW 11 16 18636 16051 10371 White 10
3 PM Tue 91 96 W 12 17 18242 12174 6494 White 8
4 PM Tue 92 95 W 12 17 16547 11501 5821 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 92 94 W 13 17 14487 11087 5407 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 90 90 W 13 17 9994 5680 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 88 88 W 13 17 6688 5680 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 86 86 W 13 17 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 85 85 W 13 18 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 84 84 WSW 13 19 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 83 83 SW 13 19 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 82 82 WSW 12 18 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 81 81 WSW 11 16 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 80 80 WSW 10 13 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 80 80 W 9 11 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 79 79 WNW 6 9 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 78 78 NW 5 6 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 80 80 WNW 4 5 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 81 81 SW 4 5 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 82 83 S 4 6 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 84 87 SSW 4 8 4608 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 86 91 SW 5 10 11324 6525 845 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 88 95 WSW 6 11 16547 11501 5821 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 90 98 WSW 8 12 18636 16051 10371 White 10
1 PM Wed 91 99 W 10 13 18833 16904 11224 White 11
2 PM Wed 93 100 W 11 14 19033 18612 12932 White 12
3 PM Wed 93 99 W 12 16 18833 16904 11224 White 11
4 PM Wed 93 97 W 13 16 18439 14021 8341 White 9
5 PM Wed 93 95 W 13 16 16547 11501 5821 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 91 91 W 13 16 11324 6525 845 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 90 90 W 12 16 9994 5680 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 88 88 W 12 16 6688 5680 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 87 87 W 12 16 4608 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 86 86 W 12 16 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 85 85 W 12 16 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 84 84 W 11 14 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 82 82 WSW 10 12 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 81 81 WSW 9 11 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 81 81 SW 8 10 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 80 80 S 6 9 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 80 80 SSE 5 8 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 81 81 SSE 4 6 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 82 82 S 4 6 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 82 83 S 4 6 3684 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 84 87 S 4 8 4608 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 86 91 SSW 5 10 11324 6525 845 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 88 95 SSW 6 11 16547 11501 5821 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 90 98 SW 8 12 18636 16051 10371 White 10
1 PM Thu 91 99 SW 10 12 18833 16904 11224 White 11
2 PM Thu 93 99 WSW 11 13 18833 16904 11224 White 11
3 PM Thu 93 98 WSW 12 14 18636 16051 10371 White 10
4 PM Thu 93 96 W 12 14 18242 12174 6494 White 8
5 PM Thu 93 94 W 12 16 14487 11087 5407 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 91 91 W 12 16 11324 6525 845 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 90 90 W 12 16 9994 5680 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 88 88 W 12 16 6688 5680 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 87 87 WSW 12 16 4608 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 85 85 WSW 11 16 3684 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]