Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8133, -113.35, 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time UTC:

 250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 SW 4 6 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 WSW 4 6 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 WSW 4 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 W 4 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 W 4 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 W 4 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 WSW 4 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 SW 4 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 SW 4 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 54 SW 5 8 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 57 SW 5 8 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 58 SW 6 11 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 59 SW 8 12 4241 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 61 SW 10 14 5050 5680 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 60 62 SW 11 17 5670 5680 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 61 63 WSW 12 19 6296 5680 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 61 62 WSW 13 20 5670 5680 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 61 61 WSW 13 19 5050 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 58 WSW 13 18 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 SW 11 14 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 WSW 10 12 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 SW 10 11 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 SW 9 11 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 SW 8 10 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 SSW 6 9 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 SW 6 8 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 W 5 6 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 WSW 5 6 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 W 5 6 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 W 5 6 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 WSW 5 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 NNW 5 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 NE 5 6 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 NE 5 8 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 55 NNE 5 8 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 57 N 5 9 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 59 N 5 10 4241 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 57 61 NW 6 12 5050 5680 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 58 61 WNW 8 13 5050 5680 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 58 60 WNW 10 14 4492 5680 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 58 59 WNW 11 17 4241 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 58 WNW 12 17 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 56 WNW 12 16 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 WNW 11 14 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 52 WNW 10 13 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 NW 9 12 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 51 NW 9 11 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 NNW 8 10 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NNW 8 9 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 N 8 9 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 N 8 9 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 NNE 8 9 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 NNE 6 9 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 NE 6 9 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 6 9 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 ENE 5 8 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 ENE 5 8 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 51 E 5 8 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 55 ESE 4 8 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 60 SE 4 8 4492 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 61 SSE 4 9 5050 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 59 62 SSW 5 9 5670 5680 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 60 63 SW 5 10 6296 5680 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 60 62 SW 5 10 5670 5680 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 60 61 WSW 6 10 5050 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 60 W 6 10 4492 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 58 W 6 9 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 W 5 9 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 W 5 8 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 WNW 5 8 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 WNW 4 6 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 WNW 4 6 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 NW 4 6 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 NW 4 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 NNW 4 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 NNW 4 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 NW 4 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 NW 4 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 NW 4 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 NNW 5 5 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 NNW 5 6 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 52 NW 5 8 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 57 WNW 5 9 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 60 W 6 11 4492 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 62 W 8 13 5670 5680 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 58 62 WNW 10 17 5670 5680 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 59 62 WNW 12 19 5670 5680 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 59 61 WNW 13 20 5050 5680 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 60 WNW 14 21 4492 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 60 WNW 16 21 4492 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 57 WNW 16 21 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 55 WNW 16 20 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 WNW 14 19 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 NW 13 18 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 NW 12 16 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 NW 11 14 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NW 11 13 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 NNW 11 13 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 NNW 11 13 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 NNW 11 13 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 NNW 11 14 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 NNW 11 14 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NNW 11 14 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NNW 11 14 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 NNW 11 14 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 51 NNW 11 14 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 54 NNW 10 14 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 58 NNW 10 14 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 56 60 NNW 10 16 4492 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 57 61 NW 10 16 5050 5680 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 58 62 WNW 11 17 5670 5680 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 58 60 WNW 12 18 4492 5680 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 57 58 WNW 12 18 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 57 57 WNW 13 18 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 55 WNW 13 18 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 54 WNW 13 18 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 WNW 13 17 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 NW 12 16 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 NW 11 13 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 NW 10 12 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 NNW 10 11 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 NNW 10 11 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 NNW 10 11 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 N 10 11 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 N 9 10 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 N 9 10 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 NNE 8 10 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 8 9 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 6 9 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 52 NE 5 9 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 56 E 4 8 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 60 E 4 8 4492 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 62 NE 4 8 5670 5680 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 60 64 NW 4 9 6712 5680 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 61 64 W 5 10 6712 5680 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 61 63 WNW 6 11 6296 5680 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 61 62 WNW 8 12 5670 5680 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 62 62 WNW 9 12 5670 5680 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 59 59 WNW 9 12 4241 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 57 NW 9 11 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 NW 9 11 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 NW 9 11 4166 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 NNW 8 10 4166 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]