Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.4236, -110.2844, 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time UTC:

250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 SW 6 11 7301 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 SW 8 12 6898 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 SW 9 13 6898 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 SW 10 14 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 SW 10 14 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 WSW 10 16 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 WSW 10 16 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 WSW 11 17 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 WSW 11 18 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 53 WSW 11 19 9282 8085 485 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 52 55 WSW 11 21 11645 8874 1274 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 55 59 WSW 11 24 14245 12314 4714 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 58 62 WSW 12 26 16056 14165 6565 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 59 63 WSW 13 27 16393 15138 7538 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 59 62 WSW 13 28 16056 14165 6565 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 58 59 WSW 14 31 14245 12314 4714 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 57 57 WSW 17 32 13381 10713 3113 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 54 54 WSW 18 32 10799 8481 881 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 51 51 WSW 19 32 8491 7600 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 49 49 WSW 18 29 7699 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 WSW 17 27 7301 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 WSW 18 27 7301 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 WSW 18 27 6898 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 WSW 18 26 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 SW 19 26 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 SW 18 26 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 WSW 18 25 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 WSW 17 25 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 WSW 17 24 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 WSW 17 24 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 SW 17 24 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 SW 17 24 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 SW 16 25 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 47 SW 14 26 6898 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 51 WSW 14 28 8491 7600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 51 55 WSW 14 29 11645 8874 1274 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 53 57 WSW 14 31 13381 10713 3113 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 55 59 W 16 32 14245 12314 4714 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 56 59 W 17 33 14245 12314 4714 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 55 57 W 18 34 13381 10713 3113 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 54 55 W 18 33 11645 8874 1274 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 52 52 W 18 32 8889 7698 98 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 49 49 W 16 27 7699 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 W 13 21 6898 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 W 10 17 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 W 8 13 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 W 6 11 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 W 5 10 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 W 4 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 WSW 4 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 WSW 4 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 WSW 4 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 SW 5 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 SSW 5 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 SSW 5 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 SSW 6 10 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 S 6 11 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 S 6 12 6898 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 51 S 5 13 8491 7600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 53 57 S 5 14 13381 10713 3113 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 56 60 S 5 16 15377 13221 5621 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 58 62 SW 5 16 16056 14165 6565 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 59 63 WSW 5 17 16393 15138 7538 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 59 61 WSW 6 18 15718 13810 6210 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 58 59 W 9 18 14245 12314 4714 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 56 56 W 10 18 12461 9262 1662 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 54 54 W 9 17 10799 8481 881 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 51 51 W 8 14 8491 7600 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 49 49 W 6 12 7699 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 W 5 11 7301 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 W 5 10 6898 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 W 5 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 W 5 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 WSW 5 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 WSW 5 10 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 WSW 5 10 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 WSW 6 11 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 WSW 6 11 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 WSW 6 11 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 WSW 8 12 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 WSW 8 13 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 50 WSW 8 14 8090 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 55 SW 9 17 11645 8874 1274 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 56 60 SW 9 19 15377 13221 5621 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 59 63 WSW 9 20 16393 15138 7538 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 60 64 WSW 9 23 16750 15628 8028 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 61 64 WSW 10 24 16750 15628 8028 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 60 62 WSW 11 26 16056 14165 6565 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 58 59 W 13 27 14245 12314 4714 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 56 56 W 14 27 12461 9262 1662 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 54 54 W 14 25 10799 8481 881 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 51 51 W 13 23 8491 7600 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 48 48 W 12 19 7301 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 11 17 6898 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 WSW 11 16 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 WSW 10 14 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 WSW 9 13 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 WSW 9 12 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 8 12 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 WSW 6 11 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 WSW 6 11 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 WSW 6 11 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 WSW 6 11 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 SW 8 11 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 SW 8 12 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 48 SW 8 14 7301 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 52 SW 9 17 8889 7698 98 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 53 57 SW 9 19 13381 10713 3113 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 55 59 WSW 10 21 14245 12314 4714 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 56 60 WSW 10 23 15377 13221 5621 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 56 60 WSW 11 24 15377 13221 5621 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 56 58 WSW 12 25 13876 11544 3944 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 54 55 W 13 26 11645 8874 1274 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 52 52 W 13 26 8889 7698 98 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 50 50 W 12 24 8090 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 48 48 W 11 20 7301 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 W 10 17 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 W 9 14 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 W 8 13 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 W 6 12 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 W 5 11 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 W 5 10 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 W 5 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 W 5 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 WSW 5 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 WSW 5 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 WSW 5 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 WSW 5 9 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 SW 5 10 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 47 SW 5 11 6898 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 52 SW 5 12 8889 7698 98 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 52 56 SSW 5 13 12461 9262 1662 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 55 60 SW 5 14 15377 13221 5621 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 57 62 W 5 16 16056 14165 6565 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 58 62 W 5 16 16056 14165 6565 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 58 60 WNW 6 16 15377 13221 5621 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 57 58 WNW 6 16 13876 11544 3944 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 55 55 WNW 8 16 11645 8874 1274 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 53 53 WNW 8 14 9282 8085 485 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 50 50 WNW 6 13 8090 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 WNW 6 12 7301 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 WNW 6 11 6852 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 WNW 5 11 6852 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]