Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.4236, -110.2844, 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 SW 24 25 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 SW 25 28 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 SW 25 27 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 SW 25 28 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 SW 24 25 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 SW 23 25 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 SW 20 21 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 SW 18 21 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 51 SW 18 23 9030 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 56 SW 18 24 11162 10357 2757 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 56 59 SW 18 24 12206 11150 3550 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 59 64 SW 19 26 14042 12892 5292 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 62 68 SW 20 29 15351 14318 6718 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 63 69 SW 23 33 15864 14664 7064 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 63 67 SW 24 34 15089 13968 6368 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 62 64 SW 24 35 14042 12892 5292 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 61 62 SW 24 34 13322 12151 4551 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 59 59 SW 26 33 12206 11150 3550 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 56 56 SW 26 31 11162 10357 2757 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 53 53 SW 26 29 10390 8203 603 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 51 51 SW 24 28 9030 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 SW 23 29 8216 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 SW 25 29 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 SW 25 27 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 SW 25 26 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 SW 25 26 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 SW 21 23 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 SW 21 24 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 SW 21 23 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 SW 21 23 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 SW 20 21 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 SW 20 23 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 48 WSW 20 25 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 53 WSW 21 28 10390 8203 603 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 57 WSW 23 32 11435 10742 3142 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 53 60 WSW 25 34 12583 11389 3789 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 54 62 WSW 27 39 13322 12151 4551 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 55 62 W 31 43 13322 12151 4551 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 55 61 W 33 46 12955 11772 4172 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 54 58 W 33 44 11823 11042 3442 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 53 55 W 32 41 11054 9743 2143 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 51 52 W 29 36 9791 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 WNW 25 32 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 WNW 20 28 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 43 WNW 16 24 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 WNW 12 19 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 WNW 10 16 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 39 WNW 9 13 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 WNW 8 12 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 WNW 8 12 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 WNW 8 12 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 WNW 8 12 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 WNW 8 11 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 36 36 WNW 8 11 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 NW 8 11 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 N 9 12 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 45 N 9 13 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 51 N 9 14 9030 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 57 N 10 14 11435 10742 3142 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 56 63 N 10 16 13684 12524 4924 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 58 66 N 11 17 14744 13614 6014 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 60 67 NNW 11 17 15089 13968 6368 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 60 66 NNW 12 18 14744 13614 6014 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 61 65 NNW 12 18 14395 13255 5655 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 61 63 NW 13 19 13684 12524 4924 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 60 61 NW 13 19 12955 11772 4172 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 57 57 NW 14 20 11435 10742 3142 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 54 54 NW 14 23 10779 8998 1398 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 51 51 NW 14 23 9030 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 NW 13 21 7334 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 NW 12 19 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 NW 11 17 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 NW 11 16 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 NW 10 14 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 NW 10 13 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 NW 9 12 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 NW 8 12 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 NW 8 12 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 N 8 12 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 ENE 9 12 7313 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 54 ESE 9 13 10779 8998 1398 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 56 59 ESE 9 14 12206 11150 3550 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 60 66 SSE 10 14 14744 13614 6014 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 63 70 SSE 10 16 16374 15006 7406 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 66 74 S 11 17 18275 16720 9120 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 67 74 SW 11 17 18275 16720 9120 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 68 74 WSW 12 18 18275 16720 9120 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 69 73 W 12 19 17818 16230 8630 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 68 70 W 12 20 16374 15006 7406 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 67 68 W 12 20 15351 14318 6718 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 64 64 W 12 20 14042 12892 5292 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 60 60 W 12 20 12583 11389 3789 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 57 57 W 12 19 11435 10742 3142 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 55 55 W 11 18 11054 9743 2143 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 54 54 W 11 17 10779 8998 1398 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 53 53 W 10 16 10390 8203 603 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 W 10 14 9791 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 W 9 14 9030 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 W 9 13 8216 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 W 9 12 7334 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 WSW 9 12 7334 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 SW 9 12 7334 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 SW 9 12 9030 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 SSW 10 13 10779 8998 1398 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 57 58 S 10 14 11823 11042 3442 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 61 64 S 11 16 14042 12892 5292 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 64 69 SSW 11 17 15864 14664 7064 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 67 74 SSW 12 18 18275 16720 9120 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 69 76 SSW 12 19 20142 17661 10061 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 71 78 SW 13 19 21690 18557 10957 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 71 77 WSW 13 20 21014 18115 10515 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 71 75 WSW 14 21 18722 17197 9597 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 71 73 WSW 16 21 17818 16230 8630 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 69 70 WSW 16 21 16374 15006 7406 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 66 66 WSW 14 21 14744 13614 6014 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 63 63 WSW 13 20 13684 12524 4924 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 12 19 12206 11150 3550 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 57 57 WSW 11 18 11435 10742 3142 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 56 56 WSW 10 17 11162 10357 2757 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 55 55 SW 10 16 11054 9743 2143 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 SW 10 14 10779 8998 1398 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 52 52 SW 10 14 9791 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 SW 10 14 9791 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 SW 10 14 9030 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 SSW 9 14 8216 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 SSW 9 14 8216 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 SSW 9 14 9791 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 S 10 14 11054 9743 2143 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 58 59 S 11 16 12206 11150 3550 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 61 64 S 12 17 14042 12892 5292 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 64 68 SSW 13 19 15351 14318 6718 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 67 73 SSW 14 21 17818 16230 8630 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 69 75 SSW 16 24 18722 17197 9597 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 70 76 SW 17 25 20142 17661 10061 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 70 76 SW 18 26 20142 17661 10061 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 70 74 SW 18 26 18275 16720 9120 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 69 71 SW 18 26 16869 15307 7707 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 67 68 SW 18 25 15351 14318 6718 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 64 64 SW 17 24 14042 12892 5292 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 61 61 SW 16 23 12955 11772 4172 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 57 57 SW 14 21 11435 10742 3142 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 55 55 SW 13 20 11054 9743 2143 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 53 53 SW 13 19 10390 8203 603 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]