Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.4236, -110.2844, 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 63 63 SSE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 62 62 SSE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 61 61 SSE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 60 60 SSE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 60 60 SSE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 59 59 SSE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 58 58 SSE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 62 62 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 66 68 SE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 69 73 ESE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 71 76 ESE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 73 79 E 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 74 79 E 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 74 78 ENE 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 74 76 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 74 75 ENE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 73 73 ENE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 70 70 E 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 65 65 SE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 64 64 ESE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 63 63 SE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 62 62 SE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 61 61 SE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 SSE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 60 60 SSE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 60 60 SE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 59 59 SSE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 58 58 SSE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 58 58 SE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 57 57 SSE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 58 58 SSE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 61 61 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 65 67 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 68 72 ESE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 70 75 ESE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 72 77 E 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 73 78 E 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 73 77 E 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 73 75 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 72 73 E 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 71 71 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 68 68 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 66 66 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 63 63 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 62 62 ESE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 62 62 ESE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 62 62 SE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 ESE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 60 60 E 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 59 59 ENE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 58 58 E 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 57 57 ESE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 57 57 SE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 58 58 SE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 59 59 ESE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 62 62 ESE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 65 67 ESE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 68 71 ESE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 71 75 ESE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 72 77 ESE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 72 76 E 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 72 75 E 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 72 74 E 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 72 73 NE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 70 70 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 68 68 N 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 65 65 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 63 63 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 62 62 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 61 61 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 60 60 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 NNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 59 59 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 59 59 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 58 58 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 58 58 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 58 58 NNE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 58 58 NNE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 59 59 ENE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 61 61 ENE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 64 66 ENE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 68 71 E 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 71 76 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 72 77 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 72 76 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 72 75 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 72 74 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 72 73 E 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 70 70 ENE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 68 68 NNE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 65 65 NW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 60 60 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 60 60 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 58 58 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 58 58 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 57 57 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 57 57 SSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 57 57 S 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 57 57 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 59 59 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 61 61 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 64 66 E 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 68 71 ESE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 70 75 ESE 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 72 77 ESE 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 73 77 ESE 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 72 75 ESE 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 72 74 ESE 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 72 73 E 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 70 70 E 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 68 68 SE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 65 65 SW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 63 63 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 62 62 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 60 60 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 59 59 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 58 58 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 57 57 NW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 56 56 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 56 56 NE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 57 57 ENE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 59 59 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 61 61 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 64 66 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 68 71 ESE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 71 75 ESE 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 72 77 ESE 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 73 77 ESE 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 73 76 ESE 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 72 74 E 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 72 73 N 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 70 70 NNW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 68 68 NNW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 64 64 NW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 62 62 NW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 60 60 NW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 60 60 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]