Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.4236, -110.2844, 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 SE 10 16 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 SSE 10 16 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 67 SE 10 14 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 S 9 13 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 S 8 13 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 SE 8 12 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 SSE 6 11 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 SE 5 11 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 71 E 5 11 8349 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 76 E 5 12 14906 11289 3689 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 74 80 E 5 13 18909 16620 9020 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 76 79 E 5 16 18727 14575 6975 White 6
12 Noon Sat 78 82 E 5 16 19371 18750 11150 White 9
1 PM Sat 79 83 E 5 16 19585 18866 11266 White 10
2 PM Sat 80 83 E 6 16 19585 18866 11266 White 10
3 PM Sat 80 82 E 5 16 19371 18750 11150 White 9
4 PM Sat 80 82 ENE 5 14 19371 18750 11150 White 9
5 PM Sat 79 79 E 5 13 18727 14575 6975 White 6
6 PM Sat 79 79 E 5 13 18727 14575 6975 White 6
7 PM Sat 76 76 ESE 5 13 14906 11289 3689 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 73 73 SE 6 14 11333 7600 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 72 72 SSW 8 14 9924 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 70 W 9 16 5847 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 69 WSW 10 16 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 WSW 10 17 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 W 10 17 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 W 10 18 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 W 10 16 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 WNW 10 14 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 NW 10 14 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 WNW 9 14 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 WNW 8 14 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 67 WNW 8 14 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 71 NW 8 16 8349 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 75 NNW 6 16 13148 9833 2233 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 74 74 N 6 17 11571 8315 715 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 76 76 N 6 17 14906 11289 3689 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 77 77 N 5 16 16808 11543 3943 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 77 77 N 5 16 16808 11543 3943 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 76 76 NNW 5 16 14906 11289 3689 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 75 75 WNW 5 14 13148 9833 2233 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 73 73 W 5 14 11333 7600 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 71 71 W 6 14 8349 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 69 69 W 8 16 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 67 W 9 17 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 66 W 10 18 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 W 10 18 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 66 66 W 10 18 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 W 10 18 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 W 10 17 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 W 10 16 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 W 10 14 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 W 9 13 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 W 9 13 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 W 9 13 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 W 8 14 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 67 WNW 8 16 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 70 WNW 8 17 5847 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 70 73 NW 8 17 11333 7600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 72 72 NW 8 18 9924 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 74 74 NW 8 19 11571 8315 715 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 74 74 NW 9 19 11571 8315 715 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 74 74 NW 9 19 11571 8315 715 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 74 74 NW 9 19 11571 8315 715 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 72 72 WNW 8 18 9924 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 70 70 WNW 8 18 5847 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 68 68 WNW 9 18 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 67 67 WNW 9 18 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 66 66 WNW 10 18 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 WNW 10 18 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 W 10 18 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 66 WSW 10 17 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 WSW 10 16 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 WSW 9 14 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 WSW 9 13 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 WSW 9 12 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 62 SW 8 12 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 SW 8 12 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 WSW 8 12 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 W 8 13 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 66 W 8 14 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 70 W 8 16 5847 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 73 WNW 8 17 11333 7600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 72 73 NW 8 18 11333 7600 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 73 74 NW 8 19 11571 8315 715 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 74 75 NW 9 19 13148 9833 2233 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 74 75 NW 9 19 13148 9833 2233 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 74 75 NW 9 19 13148 9833 2233 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 74 74 WNW 9 19 11571 8315 715 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 73 73 WNW 9 19 11333 7600 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 72 72 WNW 9 19 9924 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 70 70 NW 10 18 5847 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 68 NW 10 18 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 68 WNW 10 18 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 10 17 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 67 WSW 10 17 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 WSW 10 16 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 WSW 9 16 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 WSW 9 14 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 WSW 9 13 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 W 8 12 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 W 8 12 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 W 8 12 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 WNW 6 12 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 69 NW 6 13 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 73 NW 6 14 11333 7600 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 72 76 NNW 8 17 14906 11289 3689 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 74 76 NNW 8 18 14906 11289 3689 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 76 78 NNW 8 18 18520 12777 5177 White 5
1 PM Wed 77 79 NNW 6 18 18727 14575 6975 White 6
2 PM Wed 77 79 NNW 6 18 18727 14575 6975 White 6
3 PM Wed 76 77 NNW 6 18 16808 11543 3943 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 76 77 NW 6 17 16808 11543 3943 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 74 74 NW 6 17 11571 8315 715 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 73 73 NW 8 17 11333 7600 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 71 71 NW 8 17 8349 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 70 70 NW 9 17 5847 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 69 WNW 10 17 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 69 W 10 16 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 WSW 10 16 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 WSW 10 14 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 W 9 14 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 W 8 13 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 W 6 12 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 NW 6 12 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 NW 5 11 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 NNW 5 11 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 N 5 11 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 69 NNE 5 11 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 72 NNE 5 12 9924 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 77 NE 6 14 16808 11543 3943 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 74 75 NE 6 16 13148 9833 2233 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 76 77 NE 6 16 16808 11543 3943 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 77 78 NE 6 16 18520 12777 5177 White 5
2 PM Thu 77 78 NE 6 16 18520 12777 5177 White 5
3 PM Thu 76 77 NNE 6 14 16808 11543 3943 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 75 75 N 5 14 13148 9833 2233 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 74 74 NNW 5 13 11571 8315 715 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 72 72 NNW 5 13 9924 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 70 70 N 5 14 5847 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 68 68 N 6 14 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 68 N 8 14 5039 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 NE 9 16 5039 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]