Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.4431, -110.7892, 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 ENE 5 5 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 ENE 4 4 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 NW 3 3 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 SE 4 4 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 SSE 4 5 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 SSE 4 5 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 SSE 5 5 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 SSE 6 6 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 S 8 9 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 44 S 9 10 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 48 S 9 10 7815 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 48 49 SSW 8 9 8589 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 49 50 SSW 9 10 9319 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 49 50 SSW 8 9 9319 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 49 49 SW 8 10 8589 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 48 48 SW 8 10 7815 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 47 47 SW 8 10 6985 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 44 44 SW 8 10 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 43 43 SSW 10 11 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 43 43 SSW 12 13 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 43 SSW 12 13 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 S 13 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 S 13 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 S 13 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 S 16 17 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 S 16 17 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 S 17 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 S 17 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 S 18 20 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 SSW 18 23 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 S 18 25 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 S 18 24 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 SSW 18 25 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 42 S 18 24 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 43 SSW 18 25 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 44 44 SSW 18 26 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 45 46 SSW 18 26 6086 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 45 46 SSW 18 27 6086 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 45 46 SSW 18 26 6086 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 44 44 SSW 18 25 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 43 43 SSW 18 23 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 42 42 SSW 18 21 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 41 41 SSW 17 20 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 40 40 SSW 17 20 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 S 16 20 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 S 16 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 S 14 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 SSE 14 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 SSE 14 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 37 37 SSE 14 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 SSE 14 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 SSE 14 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 SSE 13 17 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 SSE 12 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 SSE 11 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 SE 10 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 SE 10 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 36 SSE 10 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 37 38 S 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 39 41 S 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 40 42 S 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 41 43 SW 11 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 40 42 SW 11 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 39 40 WSW 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 38 38 W 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 36 36 W 9 13 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 35 35 WNW 9 13 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 34 34 NNW 9 13 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 33 33 NNW 9 13 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 33 33 N 8 12 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 32 32 E 6 11 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 ESE 6 10 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 ESE 6 10 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 E 8 11 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 E 9 12 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 32 32 E 9 13 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 E 9 13 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 E 9 13 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 E 9 12 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 E 8 12 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 E 8 11 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 31 31 ENE 8 11 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 33 34 NNE 8 11 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 34 36 N 8 12 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 36 38 N 9 13 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 36 38 NNW 9 13 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 37 39 NNW 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 36 37 NNW 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 35 35 N 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 34 34 N 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 34 34 N 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 33 NNE 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 NE 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 32 32 NE 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 32 E 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 E 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 E 10 14 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 E 10 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 E 10 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 32 32 E 10 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 31 31 E 10 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 31 31 E 10 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 30 E 10 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 E 10 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 31 31 E 10 16 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 32 32 E 11 17 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 35 36 E 11 17 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 37 39 E 12 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 38 41 E 12 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 39 42 E 13 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 40 42 E 13 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 39 40 E 13 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 37 37 E 13 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 36 36 E 13 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 36 36 E 13 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 35 35 E 13 17 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 35 35 E 13 17 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 34 34 E 13 17 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 E 13 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 34 34 E 13 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 E 13 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 E 14 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 E 14 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 E 14 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 E 14 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 E 14 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 E 14 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 E 14 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 E 14 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 34 34 E 14 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 35 36 E 14 20 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 36 37 E 14 20 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 38 40 E 14 20 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 39 40 E 14 20 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 40 41 E 14 20 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 39 39 E 14 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 38 38 E 13 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 36 36 E 13 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 36 36 E 13 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 35 35 E 12 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 35 35 E 12 19 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 E 12 18 5341 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 E 12 17 5341 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]