Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.4431, -110.7892, 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 SSW 23 25 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 SSW 21 24 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 SSW 21 23 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 SSW 21 23 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 SSW 23 25 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 SW 23 25 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 SSW 20 21 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 SSW 18 19 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 45 SSW 18 20 8911 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 49 SSW 19 21 11046 9674 524 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 48 53 SSW 19 21 12201 11147 1997 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 50 57 SSW 23 24 13704 12539 3389 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 52 60 SSW 23 26 14781 13646 4496 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 52 60 SW 25 29 14781 13646 4496 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 53 59 SW 27 33 14427 13282 4132 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 53 57 SW 31 34 13704 12539 3389 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 52 54 SW 31 35 12585 11384 2234 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 51 51 SW 34 35 11417 10720 1570 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 49 49 WSW 33 34 11046 9674 524 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 46 46 WSW 32 33 9696 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 SW 29 32 8068 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 WSW 27 29 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 SW 29 32 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 SW 28 31 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 WSW 27 29 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 SW 27 29 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 SW 24 25 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 SW 21 24 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 35 SW 21 23 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 34 34 WSW 21 23 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 SW 20 21 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 35 35 SW 19 21 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 37 WSW 20 24 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 40 WSW 21 25 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 43 WSW 25 27 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 38 45 WSW 29 31 8911 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 39 47 W 32 35 10348 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 39 46 W 35 39 9696 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 40 46 W 35 41 9696 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 40 44 W 34 39 8068 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 39 41 WNW 33 34 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 39 40 WNW 29 29 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 38 38 WNW 24 25 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 37 37 W 18 21 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 W 12 18 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 W 10 16 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 35 35 W 10 14 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 35 35 W 10 13 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 SW 10 13 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 35 35 S 10 13 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 34 34 SSE 10 13 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 34 SSE 10 13 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 SSE 10 14 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 SSE 10 14 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 S 10 16 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 WSW 11 16 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 42 W 11 17 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 47 W 11 17 10348 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 51 WNW 11 18 11417 10720 1570 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 47 54 WNW 12 18 12585 11384 2234 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 49 57 WNW 14 19 13704 12539 3389 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 50 57 WNW 17 19 13704 12539 3389 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 50 56 WNW 18 20 13336 12159 3009 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 51 55 WNW 19 21 12963 11774 2624 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 51 53 WNW 19 23 12201 11147 1997 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 50 51 WNW 18 23 11417 10720 1570 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 49 49 WNW 16 20 11046 9674 524 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 47 47 NW 12 18 10348 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 NW 10 16 8911 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 NW 9 14 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 NNW 10 14 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 NNW 10 14 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 N 10 14 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 NE 10 16 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 ENE 10 16 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 ENE 10 16 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 E 10 14 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 E 10 14 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 E 10 14 7313 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 E 10 14 8068 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 47 ESE 10 14 10348 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 52 SE 10 14 11812 11038 1888 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 52 57 SSW 10 14 13704 12539 3389 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 55 62 WSW 10 14 15412 14361 5211 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 57 65 WSW 11 16 16965 15337 6187 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 58 65 W 11 16 16965 15337 6187 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 59 65 W 12 17 16965 15337 6187 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 59 63 W 13 17 15946 14712 5562 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 59 61 W 13 17 15131 14006 4856 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 58 59 W 13 17 14427 13282 4132 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 56 56 WNW 12 17 13336 12159 3009 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 54 54 WNW 11 16 12585 11384 2234 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 52 52 NW 10 16 11812 11038 1888 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 50 50 NW 9 16 11155 10328 1178 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 48 48 N 9 14 10744 9150 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 47 47 N 9 14 10348 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 NNE 9 14 9696 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 NE 10 14 9696 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 ENE 10 14 9696 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 E 10 14 9696 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 E 10 14 8911 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 E 10 14 9696 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 E 10 14 10348 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 ESE 10 16 11046 9674 524 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 52 53 ESE 10 16 12201 11147 1997 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 54 57 SSE 10 16 13704 12539 3389 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 57 62 SSW 10 16 15412 14361 5211 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 59 65 SW 11 16 16965 15337 6187 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 60 67 WSW 12 17 17927 16335 7185 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 61 67 WSW 13 19 17927 16335 7185 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 61 66 W 14 20 17453 15823 6673 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 62 66 W 16 21 17453 15823 6673 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 61 63 W 16 21 15946 14712 5562 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 61 61 W 16 20 15131 14006 4856 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 59 59 W 14 19 14427 13282 4132 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 57 57 WNW 12 17 13704 12539 3389 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 54 54 WNW 10 16 12585 11384 2234 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 52 52 W 10 14 11812 11038 1888 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 51 51 WSW 10 14 11417 10720 1570 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 49 49 SW 10 14 11046 9674 524 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 SSW 10 14 11046 9674 524 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 48 48 S 10 16 10744 9150 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 48 48 SSE 10 16 10744 9150 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 48 48 SSE 10 16 10744 9150 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 47 47 SE 9 14 10348 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 SE 9 14 10744 9150 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 49 49 SE 9 14 11046 9674 524 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 51 51 SSE 10 16 11417 10720 1570 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 53 54 SSE 11 17 12585 11384 2234 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 55 57 S 12 17 13704 12539 3389 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 58 62 SSW 12 17 15412 14361 5211 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 59 65 SSW 13 18 16965 15337 6187 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 61 67 SW 14 20 17927 16335 7185 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 61 67 SW 17 21 17927 16335 7185 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 62 68 SW 18 24 18390 16831 7681 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 62 66 WSW 19 25 17453 15823 6673 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 61 63 WSW 19 25 15946 14712 5562 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 60 61 WSW 19 25 15131 14006 4856 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 58 58 WSW 18 24 14068 12913 3763 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 56 56 WSW 16 21 13336 12159 3009 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 54 54 WSW 13 19 12585 11384 2234 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 52 52 WSW 12 18 11812 11038 1888 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 50 50 SSW 11 17 11155 10328 1178 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]