Detailed Predictions for: Mt Ord
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.9047, -111.4083, 7125
LZ Altitude (f): 2300
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 ENE 8 9 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 ENE 6 9 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 ENE 6 9 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 ENE 8 9 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 E 8 9 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 E 8 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 E 8 9 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 E 8 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 E 8 9 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 42 E 10 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 44 ESE 10 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 46 47 ESE 10 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 49 50 SE 10 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 51 52 SE 10 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 52 52 SE 9 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 52 52 SE 8 9 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 50 50 SSE 6 8 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 49 49 SSE 6 8 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 SSE 8 8 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 47 47 SE 8 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 SSE 8 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 46 SE 9 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 ESE 10 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 SE 9 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 ESE 10 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 ESE 10 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 SSE 10 12 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 ESE 10 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 ESE 10 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 SSE 10 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 ESE 10 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 ESE 10 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 SSE 11 12 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 44 ESE 12 13 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 45 SE 13 14 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 47 48 SSE 13 14 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 49 50 S 13 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 49 50 S 13 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 50 51 S 13 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 49 49 S 12 14 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 49 49 S 11 13 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 48 48 S 10 12 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 SSE 9 12 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 ESE 8 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 E 8 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 E 8 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 E 8 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 E 8 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 E 8 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 ENE 8 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 ENE 8 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 8 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 8 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 8 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 ENE 8 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 ENE 9 9 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 9 9 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 41 E 9 9 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 43 ESE 9 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 43 45 SE 9 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 44 46 SE 9 10 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 44 46 S 10 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 45 46 S 10 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 44 45 S 9 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 44 44 SSW 8 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 43 43 SSW 6 11 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 S 8 12 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 41 41 E 9 14 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 NNE 10 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 NE 10 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 NE 11 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 NE 11 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 NE 12 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 NE 13 18 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 NE 13 18 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 NE 13 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 NE 12 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 NE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 NE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 NE 11 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 NE 11 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 38 NE 11 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 40 41 NE 11 14 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 42 44 NE 11 14 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 44 46 NE 11 14 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 46 48 NE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 47 49 NNE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 47 48 NNE 11 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 46 46 NNE 11 14 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 NNE 10 14 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 44 44 NE 10 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 NE 11 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 42 NE 11 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 NE 11 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 NE 11 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 NE 11 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 NE 11 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 NE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 NE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 NE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 NE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 NE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 NE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 NE 12 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 37 NE 12 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 39 39 NE 12 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 42 ENE 13 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 44 46 ENE 13 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 47 49 ENE 13 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 49 51 E 13 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 50 52 E 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 50 51 E 11 14 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 ENE 10 13 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 48 48 ENE 10 13 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 ENE 10 14 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 ENE 11 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 NE 11 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 NE 11 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 NE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 NE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 NE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 NE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 NE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 NE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 NE 12 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 NE 12 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 NE 12 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 NE 12 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 NE 12 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 ENE 12 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 44 ENE 12 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 45 46 ENE 12 17 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 48 ENE 12 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 49 50 E 11 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 50 51 E 11 14 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 49 49 E 10 13 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 49 49 E 9 13 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 48 E 9 13 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 47 47 E 9 14 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 46 ENE 10 14 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 ENE 10 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 ENE 10 16 5341 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 NE 10 14 5341 7125 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]