SoaringPredictor for Mustang Mountain

Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.7036, -110.4928, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100

Sounding
Station:	KTUS
Date/Time:	11 DEC 2023
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Wind Gust	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
12 Midnight Mon	33	33	E 9	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
1 AM Mon	32	32	E 9	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
2 AM Mon	31	31	E 9	12	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
3 AM Mon	32	32	E 10	12	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
4 AM Mon	32	32	E 9	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
5 AM Mon	31	31	E 10	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
6 AM Mon	32	32	E 10	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
7 AM Mon	37	37	E 10	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
8 AM Mon	42	42	ESE 10	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
9 AM Mon	51	51	ESE 10	13	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
10 AM Mon	55	56	ESE 10	14	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
11 AM Mon	60	61	ESE 10	14	4992	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Mon	64	66	ESE 10	13	6686	5900	0	Blue	2
1 PM Mon	65	66	ESE 9	13	6686	5900	0	Blue	2
2 PM Mon	67	68	ESE 10	13	8219	5900	0	Blue	4
3 PM Mon	66	66	ESE 9	13	6686	5900	0	Blue	2
4 PM Mon	65	65	ESE 6	11	5832	5900	0	Blue	1
5 PM Mon	61	61	E 6	10	4992	5900	0	Blue	0
6 PM Mon	54	54	E 5	9	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
7 PM Mon	51	51	ESE 5	8	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
8 PM Mon	48	48	SSE 6	9	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
9 PM Mon	48	48	S 5	8	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
10 PM Mon	47	47	S 5	9	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
11 PM Mon	47	47	S 6	10	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Tue	47	47	S 6	10	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
1 AM Tue	47	47	S 8	10	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
2 AM Tue	47	47	S 8	10	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
3 AM Tue	46	46	S 8	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
4 AM Tue	46	46	S 9	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
5 AM Tue	46	46	S 10	12	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
6 AM Tue	45	45	S 10	12	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
7 AM Tue	44	44	S 10	13	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
8 AM Tue	48	48	S 10	13	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
9 AM Tue	55	55	S 13	19	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
10 AM Tue	60	60	S 16	25	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
11 AM Tue	63	64	S 18	28	5294	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Tue	65	66	SSW 19	29	6686	5900	0	Blue	2
1 PM Tue	66	67	SSW 19	28	7478	5900	0	Blue	3
2 PM Tue	66	66	SSW 18	27	6686	5900	0	Blue	2
3 PM Tue	65	65	SSW 17	26	5832	5900	0	Blue	1
4 PM Tue	63	63	SSW 16	24	5194	5900	0	Blue	0
5 PM Tue	60	60	SSW 13	21	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
6 PM Tue	56	56	SSW 12	19	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
7 PM Tue	52	52	SSW 10	16	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
8 PM Tue	48	48	S 9	13	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
9 PM Tue	46	46	S 8	12	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
10 PM Tue	45	45	S 8	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
11 PM Tue	44	44	S 8	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Wed	44	44	S 8	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
1 AM Wed	43	43	S 8	12	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
2 AM Wed	42	42	S 8	12	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
3 AM Wed	41	41	S 8	12	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
4 AM Wed	40	40	S 8	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
5 AM Wed	39	39	S 8	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
6 AM Wed	40	40	S 6	10	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
7 AM Wed	41	41	S 6	9	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
8 AM Wed	43	43	S 6	10	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
9 AM Wed	48	48	S 9	13	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
10 AM Wed	53	54	S 11	17	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
11 AM Wed	58	60	S 13	20	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Wed	60	63	SSW 14	21	5194	5900	0	Blue	0
1 PM Wed	61	63	SSW 14	23	5194	5900	0	Blue	0
2 PM Wed	61	63	SW 14	23	5194	5900	0	Blue	0
3 PM Wed	60	61	SW 14	23	4992	5900	0	Blue	0
4 PM Wed	58	58	WSW 14	21	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
5 PM Wed	56	56	WSW 13	20	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
6 PM Wed	52	52	WSW 11	18	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
7 PM Wed	48	48	WSW 10	14	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
8 PM Wed	44	44	WSW 8	12	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
9 PM Wed	42	42	WSW 6	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
10 PM Wed	41	41	WSW 5	10	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
11 PM Wed	40	40	WSW 5	10	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Thu	39	39	WSW 5	10	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
1 AM Thu	38	38	SSW 5	9	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
2 AM Thu	37	37	S 5	9	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
3 AM Thu	36	36	S 5	9	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
4 AM Thu	36	36	S 5	9	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
5 AM Thu	36	36	S 5	9	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
6 AM Thu	36	36	S 5	8	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
7 AM Thu	37	37	SSE 5	8	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
8 AM Thu	39	39	SE 5	8	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
9 AM Thu	43	43	ESE 6	9	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
10 AM Thu	48	49	NE 9	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
11 AM Thu	52	54	N 10	13	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Thu	54	57	N 11	16	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
1 PM Thu	56	59	N 11	17	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
2 PM Thu	56	58	N 11	18	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
3 PM Thu	55	56	N 11	18	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
4 PM Thu	54	54	N 11	17	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
5 PM Thu	52	52	N 10	16	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
6 PM Thu	48	48	NNE 9	14	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
7 PM Thu	45	45	NNE 9	12	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
8 PM Thu	42	42	NNE 8	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
9 PM Thu	40	40	NE 8	10	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
10 PM Thu	39	39	ENE 6	10	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
11 PM Thu	39	39	E 6	10	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Fri	38	38	E 6	10	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
1 AM Fri	38	38	E 6	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
2 AM Fri	37	37	E 6	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
3 AM Fri	36	36	E 6	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
4 AM Fri	35	35	E 8	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
5 AM Fri	35	35	E 8	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
6 AM Fri	36	36	E 8	11	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
7 AM Fri	37	37	E 8	12	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
8 AM Fri	39	39	E 9	14	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
9 AM Fri	43	43	E 11	18	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
10 AM Fri	47	48	E 13	21	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
11 AM Fri	51	53	E 16	25	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Fri	54	57	E 17	26	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
1 PM Fri	56	59	E 17	26	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
2 PM Fri	57	59	E 17	26	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
3 PM Fri	56	57	E 17	26	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
4 PM Fri	55	55	E 16	25	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
5 PM Fri	53	53	E 16	25	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
6 PM Fri	50	50	E 16	25	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
7 PM Fri	46	46	E 14	24	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
8 PM Fri	44	44	E 14	24	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
9 PM Fri	43	43	E 16	24	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
10 PM Fri	42	42	E 16	25	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
11 PM Fri	42	42	E 17	25	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Sat	41	41	E 17	25	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
1 AM Sat	40	40	E 17	26	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
2 AM Sat	40	40	E 17	26	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
3 AM Sat	39	39	E 17	25	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
4 AM Sat	38	38	E 16	25	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sat	38	38	E 16	24	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sat	39	39	E 16	24	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sat	40	40	E 16	24	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sat	41	41	E 17	24	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sat	44	44	E 18	25	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
10 AM Sat	48	49	E 19	27	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
11 AM Sat	51	53	E 19	28	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Sat	54	56	E 19	29	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
1 PM Sat	56	58	E 19	29	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
2 PM Sat	57	58	E 18	28	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
3 PM Sat	57	57	E 18	27	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
4 PM Sat	56	56	E 17	25	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
5 PM Sat	54	54	E 16	23	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
6 PM Sat	51	51	E 14	21	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
7 PM Sat	48	48	E 12	19	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
8 PM Sat	45	45	E 11	18	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
9 PM Sat	43	43	E 10	17	4944	5900	0	Blue	0
10 PM Sat	42	42	E 10	16	4944	5900	0	Blue	0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]