Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.7036, -110.4928, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 SSW 9 12 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 SW 6 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 SSW 6 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 S 6 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 SSE 6 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 SSE 6 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 SSE 6 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 SSE 6 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 56 S 10 14 5005 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 65 SSW 11 17 9235 7139 1239 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 66 71 SSW 13 19 11447 10763 4863 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 70 77 SSW 16 23 13611 12464 6564 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 73 81 SW 19 27 14967 13856 7956 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 74 81 SW 23 29 14967 13856 7956 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 75 80 WSW 24 29 14634 13515 7615 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 75 77 WSW 26 33 13611 12464 6564 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 74 75 WSW 24 33 12909 11740 5840 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 72 72 WSW 23 29 11820 11044 5144 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 67 67 WSW 21 26 10457 8398 2498 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 62 62 WSW 16 21 7156 6505 605 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 58 58 WSW 13 19 6408 5900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 56 56 WSW 12 18 5005 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 WSW 10 14 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 WSW 10 13 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 W 9 13 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 W 9 12 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 WSW 8 11 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 WSW 6 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 W 6 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 W 5 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 W 5 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 W 6 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 51 WSW 10 14 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 59 WSW 14 20 6511 5900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 60 66 WSW 19 26 9947 7602 1702 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 62 69 WSW 24 32 11064 9842 3942 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 64 72 W 27 36 11820 11044 5144 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 65 72 W 31 40 11820 11044 5144 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 65 71 W 32 41 11447 10763 4863 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 64 68 W 32 40 10830 9141 3241 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 63 65 WNW 29 37 9235 7139 1239 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 61 62 WNW 27 33 7156 6505 605 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 58 58 WNW 23 28 6408 5900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 53 53 NW 18 23 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 NW 12 18 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 47 NW 9 14 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 NW 6 12 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 NW 5 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 NW 5 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 NW 5 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 NW 5 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 W 5 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 S 5 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 SE 5 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 ESE 5 6 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 E 5 6 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 51 ENE 5 6 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 58 ENE 6 9 6408 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 61 66 NNE 9 11 9947 7602 1702 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 66 73 NNE 10 14 12188 11149 5249 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 69 77 N 11 17 13611 12464 6564 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 71 78 NNW 11 18 13956 12818 6918 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 72 78 NNW 12 19 13956 12818 6918 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 73 77 NNW 13 20 13611 12464 6564 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 72 74 NW 14 21 12551 11371 5471 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 71 72 NW 14 21 11820 11044 5144 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 67 67 NW 13 20 10457 8398 2498 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 62 62 NW 12 18 7156 6505 605 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 57 57 NW 10 16 6231 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 NW 9 13 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 NW 8 12 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 NW 6 11 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NW 5 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 WNW 5 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 WNW 5 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 WSW 5 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 S 5 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 SE 5 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 SE 5 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 ESE 5 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 59 ESE 6 9 6511 5900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 63 66 ESE 8 11 9947 7602 1702 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 70 76 SE 9 13 13262 12104 6204 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 75 82 SE 10 16 15283 14194 8294 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 78 86 S 11 17 17080 15463 9563 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 79 86 WSW 12 18 17080 15463 9563 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 80 86 W 13 19 17080 15463 9563 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 81 85 W 13 20 16613 15186 9286 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 81 83 WNW 13 20 15638 14528 8628 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 80 81 WNW 13 20 14967 13856 7956 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 75 75 WNW 12 19 12909 11740 5840 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 70 70 WNW 11 17 11169 10393 4493 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 64 64 WNW 10 14 8479 6872 972 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 61 61 WNW 9 13 6887 6404 504 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 58 58 WNW 9 12 6408 5900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 56 56 W 8 11 5005 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 W 8 11 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 WSW 6 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 WSW 6 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 SW 6 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 S 5 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 S 5 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 S 5 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 S 5 9 6408 5900 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 63 64 S 6 10 8479 6872 972 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 68 71 S 8 12 11447 10763 4863 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 74 79 SW 10 16 14297 13169 7269 Blue 22
11 AM Thu 79 85 SW 11 18 16613 15186 9286 Blue 28
12 Noon Thu 81 88 WSW 12 19 17980 16430 10530 Blue 31
1 PM Thu 83 90 WSW 13 20 19220 17347 11447 White 33
2 PM Thu 83 89 WSW 14 21 18414 16894 10994 Blue 32
3 PM Thu 84 88 WSW 14 23 17980 16430 10530 Blue 31
4 PM Thu 83 85 W 14 23 16613 15186 9286 Blue 28
5 PM Thu 81 81 W 14 21 14967 13856 7956 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 77 77 W 13 20 13611 12464 6564 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 72 72 W 11 18 11820 11044 5144 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 67 67 W 10 16 10457 8398 2498 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 63 63 W 9 13 7668 6646 746 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 61 61 WSW 8 12 6887 6404 504 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 8 11 6511 5900 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 WSW 8 11 6408 5900 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 56 56 SW 6 11 5005 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 SW 6 11 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 SSW 6 11 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 SSW 6 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 S 6 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 S 6 10 5005 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 S 8 11 6653 6217 317 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 64 65 S 9 12 9235 7139 1239 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 69 72 S 11 14 11820 11044 5144 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 74 78 SSW 12 18 13956 12818 6918 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 78 84 SSW 14 21 16133 14859 8959 Blue 27
12 Noon Fri 80 87 SW 16 24 17535 15954 10054 Blue 30
1 PM Fri 81 87 SW 17 26 17535 15954 10054 Blue 30
2 PM Fri 82 88 SW 18 27 17980 16430 10530 Blue 31
3 PM Fri 82 86 SW 18 27 17080 15463 9563 Blue 29
4 PM Fri 81 83 WSW 18 27 15638 14528 8628 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 80 81 WSW 17 26 14967 13856 7956 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 75 75 WSW 16 24 12909 11740 5840 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 70 70 SW 13 21 11169 10393 4493 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 65 65 SW 12 19 9235 7139 1239 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 62 62 SW 11 18 7156 6505 605 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 59 59 SW 10 18 6511 5900 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]