SoaringPredictor for Mustang Mountain

Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.7036, -110.4928, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100

Sounding
Station:	KTUS
Date/Time:	24 APR 2024
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Wind Gust	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
12 Midnight Wed	54	54	SW 8	11	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
1 AM Wed	52	52	SSW 8	11	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
2 AM Wed	51	51	S 8	11	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
3 AM Wed	50	50	S 6	9	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
4 AM Wed	50	50	S 8	11	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
5 AM Wed	50	50	S 8	11	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
6 AM Wed	50	50	SSE 9	12	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
7 AM Wed	54	54	SSE 10	14	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
8 AM Wed	64	65	S 14	20	6298	5900	0	Blue	1
9 AM Wed	69	71	SSW 17	24	10007	7116	1216	Blue	7
10 AM Wed	71	73	SSW 18	25	12625	8512	2612	Blue	9
11 AM Wed	74	77	SSW 18	25	13202	12778	6878	Blue	13
12 Noon Wed	76	79	SSW 18	25	13425	13094	7194	Blue	15
1 PM Wed	78	79	SSW 20	28	13425	13094	7194	Blue	15
2 PM Wed	78	78	SW 20	28	13288	12981	7081	Blue	14
3 PM Wed	77	77	SW 21	31	13202	12778	6878	Blue	13
4 PM Wed	76	76	SW 20	28	13116	12576	6676	Blue	12
5 PM Wed	74	74	SW 20	28	12829	9826	3926	Blue	10
6 PM Wed	72	72	SW 19	27	11565	7449	1549	Blue	8
7 PM Wed	66	66	SW 16	23	6433	5900	0	Blue	2
8 PM Wed	63	63	SW 14	20	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
9 PM Wed	60	60	SW 13	19	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
10 PM Wed	57	57	SW 12	17	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
11 PM Wed	54	54	SW 12	17	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Thu	53	53	SSW 10	14	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
1 AM Thu	51	51	SSW 10	14	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
2 AM Thu	50	50	SSW 10	14	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
3 AM Thu	48	48	SW 9	12	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
4 AM Thu	48	48	SW 8	11	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
5 AM Thu	46	46	SSW 9	12	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
6 AM Thu	46	46	S 10	14	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
7 AM Thu	50	50	SW 13	19	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
8 AM Thu	57	59	WSW 19	27	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
9 AM Thu	61	65	WSW 23	32	6298	5900	0	Blue	1
10 AM Thu	63	69	WSW 23	32	7470	6417	517	Blue	5
11 AM Thu	65	73	WSW 25	35	12625	8512	2612	Blue	9
12 Noon Thu	67	75	W 26	36	13030	11268	5368	Blue	11
1 PM Thu	68	76	W 26	36	13116	12576	6676	Blue	12
2 PM Thu	69	76	W 26	36	13116	12576	6676	Blue	12
3 PM Thu	69	74	W 26	36	12829	9826	3926	Blue	10
4 PM Thu	69	72	W 25	35	11565	7449	1549	Blue	8
5 PM Thu	67	68	W 23	32	7137	6294	394	Blue	4
6 PM Thu	64	64	W 19	27	5778	5900	0	Blue	0
7 PM Thu	60	60	W 16	23	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
8 PM Thu	57	57	W 12	17	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
9 PM Thu	54	54	W 10	14	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
10 PM Thu	51	51	W 8	11	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
11 PM Thu	50	50	WSW 6	9	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Fri	48	48	WSW 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
1 AM Fri	47	47	WSW 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
2 AM Fri	46	46	SW 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
3 AM Fri	44	44	SW 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
4 AM Fri	43	43	SW 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
5 AM Fri	43	43	SSW 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
6 AM Fri	47	47	SSW 6	9	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
7 AM Fri	52	52	SSW 8	11	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
8 AM Fri	58	60	SSW 10	14	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
9 AM Fri	62	66	SW 13	19	6433	5900	0	Blue	2
10 AM Fri	65	71	SW 17	24	10007	7116	1216	Blue	7
11 AM Fri	67	75	WSW 20	28	13030	11268	5368	Blue	11
12 Noon Fri	69	77	WSW 24	33	13202	12778	6878	Blue	13
1 PM Fri	71	79	WSW 27	39	13425	13094	7194	Blue	15
2 PM Fri	72	79	WSW 29	41	13425	13094	7194	Blue	15
3 PM Fri	72	77	WSW 31	43	13202	12778	6878	Blue	13
4 PM Fri	71	73	WSW 31	43	12625	8512	2612	Blue	9
5 PM Fri	69	70	WSW 29	41	8673	6778	878	Blue	6
6 PM Fri	66	66	WSW 27	39	6433	5900	0	Blue	2
7 PM Fri	61	61	WSW 24	33	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
8 PM Fri	57	57	WSW 21	31	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
9 PM Fri	54	54	WSW 21	31	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
10 PM Fri	52	52	SW 21	31	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
11 PM Fri	51	51	SW 21	31	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Sat	49	49	SW 20	28	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
1 AM Sat	48	48	SW 19	27	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
2 AM Sat	47	47	SW 18	25	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
3 AM Sat	45	45	SW 18	25	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
4 AM Sat	44	44	SW 17	24	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sat	44	44	SW 17	24	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sat	46	46	SW 16	23	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sat	48	48	WSW 16	23	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sat	51	52	WSW 16	23	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sat	54	57	WSW 17	24	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
10 AM Sat	58	63	W 19	27	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
11 AM Sat	61	68	W 20	28	7137	6294	394	Blue	4
12 Noon Sat	63	71	W 21	31	10007	7116	1216	Blue	7
1 PM Sat	65	73	W 21	31	12625	8512	2612	Blue	9
2 PM Sat	66	72	W 21	31	11565	7449	1549	Blue	8
3 PM Sat	67	72	W 21	31	11565	7449	1549	Blue	8
4 PM Sat	67	70	W 20	28	8673	6778	878	Blue	6
5 PM Sat	65	66	W 19	27	6433	5900	0	Blue	2
6 PM Sat	61	61	W 18	25	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
7 PM Sat	57	57	WNW 16	23	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
8 PM Sat	53	53	WNW 13	19	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
9 PM Sat	50	50	WNW 11	16	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
10 PM Sat	49	49	W 9	12	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
11 PM Sat	47	47	W 8	11	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Sun	46	46	W 6	9	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
1 AM Sun	45	45	WSW 6	9	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
2 AM Sun	44	44	WSW 6	9	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
3 AM Sun	42	42	SW 6	9	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
4 AM Sun	41	41	SSW 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sun	42	42	S 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sun	46	46	SW 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sun	52	52	WNW 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sun	57	59	NNW 6	9	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sun	61	65	NNW 8	11	6298	5900	0	Blue	1
10 AM Sun	64	70	NNW 10	14	8673	6778	878	Blue	6
11 AM Sun	66	74	NNW 11	16	12829	9826	3926	Blue	10
12 Noon Sun	68	76	NW 12	17	13116	12576	6676	Blue	12
1 PM Sun	70	78	NW 13	19	13288	12981	7081	Blue	14
2 PM Sun	72	79	WNW 13	19	13425	13094	7194	Blue	15
3 PM Sun	73	78	WNW 13	19	13288	12981	7081	Blue	14
4 PM Sun	73	76	WNW 13	19	13116	12576	6676	Blue	12
5 PM Sun	71	72	WNW 13	19	11565	7449	1549	Blue	8
6 PM Sun	68	68	NW 13	19	7137	6294	394	Blue	4
7 PM Sun	63	63	NW 12	17	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
8 PM Sun	59	59	NW 11	16	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
9 PM Sun	55	55	NW 10	14	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
10 PM Sun	53	53	WNW 9	12	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
11 PM Sun	52	52	WNW 8	11	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Mon	51	51	WSW 6	9	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
1 AM Mon	50	50	SSE 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
2 AM Mon	48	48	ESE 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
3 AM Mon	47	47	ESE 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
4 AM Mon	46	46	SE 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
5 AM Mon	47	47	SE 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
6 AM Mon	51	51	SE 5	8	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
7 AM Mon	56	56	ESE 6	9	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
8 AM Mon	62	64	ESE 8	11	5778	5900	0	Blue	0
9 AM Mon	67	71	SE 9	12	10007	7116	1216	Blue	7
10 AM Mon	70	76	SE 11	16	13116	12576	6676	Blue	12
11 AM Mon	73	80	SSE 12	17	13822	13179	7279	Blue	16
12 Noon Mon	76	84	S 13	19	14377	13921	8021	Blue	20
1 PM Mon	78	86	SSW 13	19	14654	14197	8297	Blue	22
2 PM Mon	80	87	SW 13	19	14986	14335	8435	Blue	23
3 PM Mon	81	86	WSW 13	19	14654	14197	8297	Blue	22
4 PM Mon	81	84	WSW 13	19	14377	13921	8021	Blue	20
5 PM Mon	79	80	W 13	19	13822	13179	7279	Blue	16
6 PM Mon	75	75	W 12	17	13030	11268	5368	Blue	11
7 PM Mon	70	70	WSW 11	16	8673	6778	878	Blue	6
8 PM Mon	65	65	WSW 10	14	6298	5900	0	Blue	1
9 PM Mon	62	62	WSW 10	14	4941	5900	0	Blue	0
10 PM Mon	59	59	WSW 9	12	4941	5900	0	Blue	0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]