Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.7036, -110.4928, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 ESE 6 12 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 74 74 E 5 11 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 72 72 ESE 5 11 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 ESE 5 10 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 69 SE 5 10 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 67 S 5 9 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 67 S 5 9 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 72 SSW 5 9 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 77 79 S 5 10 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 84 88 E 6 12 11647 8754 2854 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 86 92 E 8 16 18253 12841 6941 White 5
11 AM Sat 90 94 E 9 17 18651 16525 10625 White 7
12 Noon Sat 92 96 E 9 18 19054 18718 12818 White 9
1 PM Sat 93 97 E 9 19 19268 18831 12931 White 10
2 PM Sat 93 97 E 9 19 19268 18831 12931 White 10
3 PM Sat 94 97 E 8 19 19268 18831 12931 White 10
4 PM Sat 93 95 E 8 18 18851 17124 11224 White 8
5 PM Sat 92 92 E 8 16 18253 12841 6941 White 5
6 PM Sat 91 91 E 6 14 16757 11566 5666 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 86 86 ESE 6 13 10279 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 82 82 WSW 8 14 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 79 79 W 8 13 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 78 78 WNW 8 13 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 75 75 WNW 8 13 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 W 6 13 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 72 72 W 6 12 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 WNW 6 12 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 W 6 11 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 W 5 11 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 W 5 10 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 WSW 5 11 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 W 6 12 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 76 WNW 8 13 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 81 84 WNW 9 16 7114 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 84 89 NW 10 17 13337 10090 4190 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 87 87 NNW 10 19 11381 6987 1087 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 89 90 NNW 10 20 14920 11337 5437 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 90 91 NNW 10 21 16757 11566 5666 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 90 90 NNW 10 21 14920 11337 5437 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 89 89 NW 10 21 13337 10090 4190 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 87 87 WNW 10 20 11381 6987 1087 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 84 84 W 10 19 7114 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 82 82 W 10 18 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 78 78 W 9 17 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 76 76 W 9 16 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 74 74 W 9 14 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 73 W 8 14 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 72 W 8 13 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 W 8 12 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 W 6 12 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 W 6 11 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 W 6 10 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 WSW 5 10 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 WSW 5 10 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 67 W 5 11 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 70 W 6 12 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 74 75 WNW 8 13 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 78 80 WNW 9 16 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 81 84 NW 11 18 7114 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 84 85 NW 12 20 8924 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 86 87 NW 13 23 11381 6987 1087 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 87 88 NW 13 24 11647 8754 2854 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 88 89 NW 13 24 13337 10090 4190 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 87 88 NW 13 24 11647 8754 2854 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 86 86 NW 13 23 10279 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 85 85 NW 12 21 8924 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 82 82 NW 11 20 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 79 79 WNW 11 19 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 76 76 WNW 10 18 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 74 74 WNW 10 17 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 72 72 W 9 16 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 71 WSW 9 14 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 WSW 8 13 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 69 69 WSW 6 12 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 68 SW 5 11 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 SW 5 10 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 66 WSW 5 9 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 66 WSW 5 9 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 WSW 5 9 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 W 5 10 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 75 W 6 12 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 80 WNW 9 14 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 82 86 WNW 10 18 10279 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 85 87 NW 12 20 11381 6987 1087 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 87 89 NW 13 23 13337 10090 4190 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 88 90 NW 13 24 14920 11337 5437 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 88 90 NW 13 24 14920 11337 5437 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 88 89 NW 13 24 13337 10090 4190 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 88 89 WNW 13 24 13337 10090 4190 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 86 86 WNW 13 23 10279 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 84 84 NW 12 21 7114 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 80 80 NW 11 19 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 78 78 NW 10 17 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 76 76 NW 9 16 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 75 75 W 9 14 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 74 74 W 8 13 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 W 6 12 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 W 6 11 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 WSW 5 10 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 WSW 4 9 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 66 W 4 8 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 66 W 4 8 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 W 4 8 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 72 WNW 4 9 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 76 77 NW 5 11 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 80 83 NW 8 13 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 84 88 NW 10 17 11647 8754 2854 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 87 89 NW 11 19 13337 10090 4190 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 89 91 NW 11 21 16757 11566 5666 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 90 92 NW 11 23 18253 12841 6941 White 5
2 PM Wed 90 92 NW 11 23 18253 12841 6941 White 5
3 PM Wed 90 91 NW 11 23 16757 11566 5666 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 90 91 NW 11 20 16757 11566 5666 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 88 88 NW 11 19 11647 8754 2854 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 86 86 NW 10 18 10279 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 82 82 NNW 9 16 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 79 79 NNW 8 14 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 77 77 NW 6 13 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 75 75 W 5 12 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 74 74 SW 5 11 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 SW 5 10 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 71 SW 5 10 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 70 SW 5 9 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 SSW 5 8 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 67 SSE 4 6 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 SE 4 6 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 ESE 4 6 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 73 73 E 4 8 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 77 78 ENE 5 9 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 81 84 ENE 6 11 7114 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 85 89 NE 8 14 13337 10090 4190 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 88 89 NE 9 17 13337 10090 4190 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 90 92 NNE 9 18 18253 12841 6941 White 5
1 PM Thu 91 93 NNE 9 19 18453 14496 8596 White 6
2 PM Thu 91 92 N 9 19 18253 12841 6941 White 5
3 PM Thu 90 91 N 9 19 16757 11566 5666 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 89 89 N 9 18 13337 10090 4190 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 87 87 N 9 17 11381 6987 1087 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 83 83 NNE 8 16 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 80 80 E 6 13 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 77 77 SE 5 12 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 75 75 SE 5 11 5039 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 74 74 SE 5 11 5039 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]