Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.05140323308282, -113.1360567714253, 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 NW 4 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 WNW 5 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 W 5 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 W 5 11 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 WNW 4 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 NW 3 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 W 3 4 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 SW 3 4 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 62 SSW 3 4 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 67 SSW 3 4 2610 2470 1054 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 67 72 SSW 4 5 2754 2644 1228 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 70 77 SSW 5 8 4395 2824 1408 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 72 80 SW 8 11 6403 4326 2910 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 74 81 SW 10 14 6497 4999 3583 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 75 81 WSW 12 18 6497 4999 3583 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 76 81 WSW 14 20 6497 4999 3583 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 76 79 WSW 16 23 6231 3633 2217 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 77 78 WSW 16 24 5146 2899 1483 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 75 75 WSW 14 24 2941 2752 1336 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 73 73 W 13 24 2790 2680 1264 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 69 69 W 12 23 2646 2593 1177 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 67 67 W 12 23 2610 2470 1054 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 64 64 W 12 23 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 W 12 21 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 WSW 11 19 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 WSW 10 16 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 WSW 9 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 WSW 8 11 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 WSW 6 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 WSW 5 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 WSW 5 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 WSW 5 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 57 WSW 5 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 63 WSW 6 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 68 W 8 12 2627 2571 1155 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 66 73 W 9 14 2790 2680 1264 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 69 77 W 10 17 4395 2824 1408 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 72 79 W 11 18 6231 3633 2217 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 74 80 WNW 12 19 6403 4326 2910 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 76 81 WNW 13 20 6497 4999 3583 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 76 79 WNW 13 20 6231 3633 2217 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 76 77 WNW 12 19 4395 2824 1408 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 74 74 WNW 10 16 2826 2716 1300 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 72 72 WNW 8 12 2754 2644 1228 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 69 69 WNW 5 9 2646 2593 1177 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 67 67 W 4 8 2610 2470 1054 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 66 66 W 4 6 2593 2470 1054 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 4 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 WSW 4 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 WSW 3 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 WSW 3 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 WNW 3 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 N 3 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 NNE 3 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 NE 4 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 NE 4 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 63 NE 5 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 69 NE 5 8 2646 2593 1177 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 71 76 N 5 8 3689 2788 1372 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 75 82 N 5 8 6632 6089 4673 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 78 86 NNW 6 9 7908 6787 5371 White 21
1 PM Tue 81 88 WNW 8 11 8327 7290 5874 White 23
2 PM Tue 83 89 W 9 13 8536 8536 7120 White 24
3 PM Tue 85 90 W 10 16 8746 8746 7330 White 25
4 PM Tue 85 88 W 11 17 8327 7290 5874 White 23
5 PM Tue 85 86 W 11 17 7908 6787 5371 White 21
6 PM Tue 83 83 W 10 14 6833 6391 4975 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 80 80 W 8 12 6403 4326 2910 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 77 77 WSW 6 10 4395 2824 1408 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 75 75 W 5 9 2941 2752 1336 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 73 73 W 5 9 2790 2680 1264 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 71 71 W 5 9 2718 2626 1210 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 W 5 8 2627 2571 1155 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 66 66 WNW 4 8 2593 2470 1054 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 64 64 WNW 4 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 NW 4 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 NNE 4 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 ENE 4 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 ENE 4 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 ENE 5 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 69 ENE 5 8 2646 2593 1177 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 73 76 ENE 5 8 3689 2788 1372 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 78 83 E 5 9 6833 6391 4975 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 83 90 E 5 10 8746 8746 7330 White 25
12 Noon Wed 86 94 ESE 6 11 9578 9578 8162 White 29
1 PM Wed 88 96 SSW 9 13 9994 9994 8578 White 31
2 PM Wed 90 96 WSW 10 14 9994 9994 8578 White 31
3 PM Wed 92 97 WSW 10 14 10200 10200 8784 White 32
4 PM Wed 93 96 WSW 10 14 9994 9994 8578 White 31
5 PM Wed 92 93 WSW 9 13 9371 9371 7955 White 28
6 PM Wed 89 89 WSW 8 12 8536 8536 7120 White 24
7 PM Wed 86 86 WSW 8 11 7908 6787 5371 White 21
8 PM Wed 82 82 WSW 6 10 6632 6089 4673 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 80 80 WSW 6 10 6403 4326 2910 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 78 78 WSW 6 10 5146 2899 1483 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 76 76 WSW 6 10 3689 2788 1372 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 WSW 5 9 2790 2680 1264 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 70 70 SW 5 9 2682 2609 1193 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 68 68 SW 4 8 2627 2571 1155 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 66 66 SW 4 6 2593 2470 1054 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 65 65 S 4 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 S 4 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 SSE 4 6 2593 2470 1054 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 68 68 ESE 5 6 2627 2571 1155 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 71 72 E 5 8 2754 2644 1228 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 76 78 ESE 6 9 5146 2899 1483 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 81 85 SSE 6 10 7697 6608 5192 White 20
11 AM Thu 86 91 S 8 11 8954 8954 7538 White 26
12 Noon Thu 89 95 S 9 12 9786 9786 8370 White 30
1 PM Thu 92 97 SSW 9 14 10200 10200 8784 White 32
2 PM Thu 93 97 SW 10 16 10200 10200 8784 White 32
3 PM Thu 94 97 SW 11 17 10200 10200 8784 White 32
4 PM Thu 95 96 SW 11 17 9994 9994 8578 White 31
5 PM Thu 94 94 SW 11 17 9578 9578 8162 White 29
6 PM Thu 91 91 SW 11 17 8954 8954 7538 White 26
7 PM Thu 88 88 SW 11 17 8327 7290 5874 White 23
8 PM Thu 84 84 SW 10 16 7087 6474 5058 Blue 19
9 PM Thu 81 81 SW 9 14 6497 4999 3583 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 79 79 SW 9 12 6231 3633 2217 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 77 77 SW 8 11 4395 2824 1408 Blue 12
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 SSW 6 10 2826 2716 1300 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 71 71 SSW 6 9 2718 2626 1210 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 69 69 S 5 9 2646 2593 1177 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 67 67 S 5 8 2610 2470 1054 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 65 65 SSE 5 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 SSE 5 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 SSE 5 8 2593 2470 1054 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 68 68 SE 5 8 2627 2571 1155 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 71 72 SE 5 9 2754 2644 1228 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 75 77 SSE 6 10 4395 2824 1408 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 80 84 S 8 11 7087 6474 5058 Blue 19
11 AM Fri 85 91 SSW 9 13 8954 8954 7538 White 26
12 Noon Fri 88 95 SSW 10 16 9786 9786 8370 White 30
1 PM Fri 91 98 SW 11 18 10404 10404 8988 White 33
2 PM Fri 92 98 SW 12 19 10404 10404 8988 White 33
3 PM Fri 93 97 SW 13 20 10200 10200 8784 White 32
4 PM Fri 94 96 SW 13 20 9994 9994 8578 White 31
5 PM Fri 93 94 SW 13 20 9578 9578 8162 White 29
6 PM Fri 90 90 SW 13 20 8746 8746 7330 White 25
7 PM Fri 87 87 SW 13 20 8117 7039 5623 White 22
8 PM Fri 83 83 SW 12 19 6833 6391 4975 Blue 18
9 PM Fri 80 80 SW 11 18 6403 4326 2910 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 78 78 SSW 11 17 5146 2899 1483 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]