Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.05140323308282, -113.1360567714253, 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time UTC:

250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 N 2 4 2836 2605 1189 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 59 59 NNE 2 4 2686 2556 1140 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 58 58 NE 2 4 2609 2555 1139 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 57 57 NE 2 3 2556 2555 1139 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 NE 2 4 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 NE 2 4 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 ENE 2 4 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 ENE 2 5 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 E 3 5 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 58 NE 3 6 2609 2555 1139 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 62 63 ENE 4 6 2897 2759 1343 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 66 67 S 4 8 2948 2909 1493 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 69 71 SSW 4 8 3442 2973 1557 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 72 74 SW 5 10 3843 3432 2016 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 75 76 SW 6 11 4110 3698 2282 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 76 77 SW 9 13 4304 3831 2415 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 76 77 SW 10 16 4304 3831 2415 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 77 77 WSW 10 16 4304 3831 2415 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 75 75 SW 9 14 3976 3565 2149 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 72 72 SW 8 13 3575 3012 1596 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 68 68 SW 6 11 2975 2921 1505 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 66 66 SW 5 10 2935 2896 1480 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 5 8 2909 2834 1418 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 61 61 SW 4 6 2836 2605 1189 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 SW 4 6 2686 2556 1140 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 58 58 SW 4 6 2609 2555 1139 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 56 56 SW 4 6 2556 2555 1139 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 SW 3 5 2556 2555 1139 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 SW 3 5 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 SSW 3 5 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 S 3 5 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 SE 3 5 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 ENE 3 6 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 NE 3 6 2609 2555 1139 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 61 63 N 4 6 2897 2759 1343 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 64 67 N 4 6 2948 2909 1493 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 67 71 NNW 4 6 3442 2973 1557 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 70 74 NW 4 8 3843 3432 2016 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 73 76 WNW 4 8 4110 3698 2282 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 74 76 WNW 4 9 4110 3698 2282 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 75 76 WNW 5 10 4110 3698 2282 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 76 76 W 5 10 4110 3698 2282 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 73 73 W 5 9 3709 3116 1700 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 71 71 WNW 4 8 3442 2973 1557 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 68 68 WNW 4 6 2975 2921 1505 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 66 66 WNW 4 6 2935 2896 1480 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 63 63 NW 4 6 2897 2759 1343 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 61 61 NNW 4 6 2836 2605 1189 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NNW 4 6 2686 2556 1140 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 57 57 N 3 5 2556 2555 1139 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 N 3 5 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 3 5 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 3 5 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 NNE 3 5 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 NNE 3 6 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 NE 4 6 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 NE 4 8 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 56 NE 4 9 2556 2555 1139 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 63 NE 5 9 2897 2759 1343 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 66 69 NE 5 9 3014 2934 1518 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 69 73 NNE 5 9 3709 3116 1700 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 73 77 NW 4 8 4304 3831 2415 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 76 79 W 4 8 5141 4097 2681 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 76 78 W 4 8 4543 3964 2548 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 77 78 W 5 9 4543 3964 2548 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 77 77 W 5 9 4304 3831 2415 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 74 74 W 4 8 3843 3432 2016 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 72 72 W 4 6 3575 3012 1596 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 3 5 3014 2934 1518 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 67 67 WSW 3 5 2948 2909 1493 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 3 5 2922 2868 1452 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 63 63 W 3 5 2897 2759 1343 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SW 3 5 2836 2605 1189 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 59 59 SE 2 4 2686 2556 1140 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 57 57 E 2 4 2556 2555 1139 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 E 2 4 2556 2555 1139 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 ENE 2 4 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 ENE 2 4 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 NE 2 4 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 NE 3 5 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 NNE 3 5 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 58 NNE 3 5 2609 2555 1139 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 63 65 N 4 5 2922 2868 1452 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 68 71 NNW 4 6 3442 2973 1557 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 71 75 NW 5 8 3976 3565 2149 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 74 78 WNW 5 9 4543 3964 2548 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 76 79 W 6 11 5141 4097 2681 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 77 79 W 8 13 5141 4097 2681 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 77 78 W 9 16 4543 3964 2548 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 78 78 W 10 17 4543 3964 2548 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 75 75 WNW 10 16 3976 3565 2149 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 73 73 WNW 9 14 3709 3116 1700 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 71 71 WNW 8 12 3442 2973 1557 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 69 69 NW 6 11 3014 2934 1518 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 66 66 NW 6 10 2935 2896 1480 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 64 64 NW 5 9 2909 2834 1418 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 NW 5 8 2869 2682 1266 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 60 60 NW 4 8 2763 2556 1140 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 58 58 NW 4 8 2609 2555 1139 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 57 57 NW 4 8 2556 2555 1139 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 NNW 4 8 2556 2555 1139 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 4 8 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 4 8 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 9 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 9 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 59 N 5 10 2686 2556 1140 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 63 65 N 5 10 2922 2868 1452 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 67 70 N 5 11 3142 2947 1531 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 70 74 NNW 5 11 3843 3432 2016 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 72 76 NW 6 12 4110 3698 2282 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 75 79 NW 6 12 5141 4097 2681 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 75 78 NW 6 12 4543 3964 2548 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 76 77 WNW 8 13 4304 3831 2415 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 76 76 WNW 8 13 4110 3698 2282 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 73 73 WNW 8 13 3709 3116 1700 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 71 71 NW 6 12 3442 2973 1557 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 69 69 NW 6 11 3014 2934 1518 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 66 66 NW 6 11 2935 2896 1480 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 64 64 NW 5 10 2909 2834 1418 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 61 61 NW 5 10 2836 2605 1189 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 NW 5 9 2686 2556 1140 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 56 56 NNW 4 9 2556 2555 1139 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 NNW 4 8 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 NNW 4 8 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 N 4 8 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 NNE 4 8 2555 2554 1138 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 NNE 4 8 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 NE 5 9 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 NE 5 9 2555 2555 1139 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 NE 5 10 2609 2555 1139 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 62 64 NE 6 11 2909 2834 1418 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 67 70 NE 6 11 3142 2947 1531 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 70 74 NE 6 11 3843 3432 2016 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 74 78 NNE 5 10 4543 3964 2548 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 77 81 N 5 10 6310 4518 3102 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 78 81 N 5 10 6310 4518 3102 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 78 79 N 5 9 5141 4097 2681 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 79 79 N 5 9 5141 4097 2681 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 76 76 N 5 8 4110 3698 2282 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 73 73 NNW 4 6 3709 3116 1700 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 70 70 NNW 4 6 3142 2947 1531 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 68 68 NNW 4 6 2975 2921 1505 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 65 65 N 5 8 2922 2868 1452 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]