Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.05140323308282, -113.1360567714253, 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 83 83 N 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 79 79 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 76 76 NNE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 73 73 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 70 70 NE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 67 67 NE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 66 66 N 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 66 66 NNE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 69 69 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 76 78 NE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 84 87 ENE 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 91 96 ENE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 97 102 ENE 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 102 107 ENE 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 105 109 ENE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 107 110 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 107 108 NNW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 106 106 WNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 103 103 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 100 100 WNW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 97 97 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 94 94 SW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 91 91 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 88 88 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 83 83 WSW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 79 79 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 76 76 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 73 73 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 71 71 S 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 70 70 SSE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 70 70 SSE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 69 69 S 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 70 70 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 75 76 WNW 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 80 82 ESE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 85 89 SE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 91 96 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 95 100 SSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 98 102 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 99 102 SW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 100 101 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 100 100 WSW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 98 98 WSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 95 95 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 92 92 SW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 88 88 SW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 85 85 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 82 82 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 78 78 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 75 75 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 72 72 SW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 69 69 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 67 67 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 65 65 SSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 65 65 SSE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 66 66 SSE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 67 67 SW 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 73 75 SSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 79 82 SW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 85 90 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 90 95 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 94 99 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 97 101 WSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 99 102 WSW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 99 100 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 99 99 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 96 96 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 92 92 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 89 89 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 85 85 WSW 7 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 82 82 W 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 79 79 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]