Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.05140323308282, -113.1360567714253, 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 97 97 SW 9 14 2862 2862 1446 White 7
1 AM Sat 95 95 SSW 8 14 2420 2420 1004 White 0
2 AM Sat 93 93 S 6 12 1974 1974 558 White 0
3 AM Sat 91 91 SSW 6 12 1528 1528 112 White 0
4 AM Sat 91 91 SSW 5 12 1528 1528 112 White 0
5 AM Sat 90 90 SSW 5 11 1304 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 89 89 SSW 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 91 91 SSW 5 12 1528 1528 112 White 0
8 AM Sat 92 94 SSW 6 12 2197 2197 781 White 0
9 AM Sat 96 100 SSW 8 14 3159 3104 1688 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 99 105 SSW 9 16 4653 3421 2005 White 15
11 AM Sat 101 108 SSW 10 17 5313 4795 3379 White 18
12 Noon Sat 103 112 SSW 10 18 6170 6170 4754 White 22
1 PM Sat 105 114 SSW 10 19 6597 6597 5181 White 24
2 PM Sat 108 116 SW 10 19 7023 7023 5607 White 26
3 PM Sat 108 114 SW 10 19 6597 6597 5181 White 24
4 PM Sat 108 112 SW 10 19 6170 6170 4754 White 22
5 PM Sat 109 111 SW 10 19 5956 5956 4540 White 21
6 PM Sat 108 109 WSW 11 19 5527 5527 4111 White 19
7 PM Sat 107 107 WSW 12 21 5098 3973 2557 White 17
8 PM Sat 103 103 WSW 13 23 3591 3158 1742 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 100 100 SW 13 21 3159 3104 1688 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 98 98 SW 12 21 3085 3051 1635 White 8
11 PM Sat 95 95 SW 11 19 2420 2420 1004 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 93 93 SW 11 19 1974 1974 558 White 0
1 AM Sun 91 91 SW 10 18 1528 1528 112 White 0
2 AM Sun 90 90 SW 10 18 1304 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 88 88 SW 10 18 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 88 88 SW 8 16 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 87 87 SW 6 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 86 86 SW 8 14 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 87 87 SSW 8 16 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 88 90 SSW 8 16 1304 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 92 95 SSW 9 16 2420 2420 1004 White 0
10 AM Sun 95 100 SW 9 17 3159 3104 1688 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 98 104 SW 10 17 4429 3263 1847 White 14
12 Noon Sun 101 107 SW 10 17 5098 3973 2557 White 17
1 PM Sun 103 110 SW 10 18 5742 5742 4326 White 20
2 PM Sun 105 111 SW 10 18 5956 5956 4540 White 21
3 PM Sun 105 110 SW 10 18 5742 5742 4326 White 20
4 PM Sun 105 108 WSW 10 19 5313 4795 3379 White 18
5 PM Sun 105 106 WSW 10 19 4877 3579 2163 White 16
6 PM Sun 104 104 WSW 11 20 4429 3263 1847 White 14
7 PM Sun 102 102 SW 12 20 3432 3144 1728 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 101 101 SW 13 21 3273 3130 1714 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 99 99 SW 13 21 3145 3077 1661 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 96 96 SW 13 21 2641 2641 1225 White 6
11 PM Sun 94 94 SW 12 21 2197 2197 781 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 92 92 SW 12 20 1751 1751 335 White 0
1 AM Mon 91 91 SSW 11 19 1528 1528 112 White 0
2 AM Mon 89 89 SSW 10 18 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 88 88 SSW 9 16 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 87 87 SSW 6 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 86 86 SSW 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 87 87 SSW 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 88 88 SSW 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 89 90 SSW 6 13 1304 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 92 94 SSW 8 14 2197 2197 781 White 0
10 AM Mon 95 99 SW 8 14 3145 3077 1661 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 98 104 SW 9 16 4429 3263 1847 White 14
12 Noon Mon 100 107 SW 9 17 5098 3973 2557 White 17
1 PM Mon 103 110 WSW 10 17 5742 5742 4326 White 20
2 PM Mon 105 111 WSW 10 18 5956 5956 4540 White 21
3 PM Mon 106 111 WSW 10 18 5956 5956 4540 White 21
4 PM Mon 106 109 WSW 10 19 5527 5527 4111 White 19
5 PM Mon 106 108 WSW 10 19 5313 4795 3379 White 18
6 PM Mon 105 105 WSW 10 19 4653 3421 2005 White 15
7 PM Mon 103 103 WSW 11 20 3591 3158 1742 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 102 102 SW 11 20 3432 3144 1728 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 100 100 SW 11 20 3159 3104 1688 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 98 98 SW 12 21 3085 3051 1635 White 8
11 PM Mon 96 96 SW 12 21 2641 2641 1225 White 6
12 Midnight Tue 94 94 SW 12 21 2197 2197 781 White 0
1 AM Tue 92 92 SW 11 20 1751 1751 335 White 0
2 AM Tue 90 90 SW 10 19 1304 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 89 89 SW 9 17 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 87 87 SSW 6 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 86 86 SSW 5 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 87 87 SSW 5 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 89 89 SSW 5 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 90 91 SSW 5 11 1528 1528 112 White 0
9 AM Tue 93 96 SW 6 12 2641 2641 1225 White 6
10 AM Tue 96 101 SW 6 13 3273 3130 1714 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 99 106 SW 8 14 4877 3579 2163 White 16
12 Noon Tue 101 109 SW 9 16 5527 5527 4111 White 19
1 PM Tue 104 112 WSW 9 18 6170 6170 4754 White 22
2 PM Tue 106 113 WSW 10 19 6383 6383 4967 White 23
3 PM Tue 107 113 WSW 10 19 6383 6383 4967 White 23
4 PM Tue 107 111 WSW 10 19 5956 5956 4540 White 21
5 PM Tue 108 110 WSW 10 19 5742 5742 4326 White 20
6 PM Tue 106 106 WSW 11 19 4877 3579 2163 White 16
7 PM Tue 105 105 WSW 11 20 4653 3421 2005 White 15
8 PM Tue 103 103 SW 12 20 3591 3158 1742 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 101 101 SW 12 21 3273 3130 1714 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 98 98 SW 12 23 3085 3051 1635 White 8
11 PM Tue 96 96 SW 12 23 2641 2641 1225 White 6
12 Midnight Wed 94 94 SW 12 23 2197 2197 781 White 0
1 AM Wed 91 91 SW 11 21 1528 1528 112 White 0
2 AM Wed 89 89 SW 10 19 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 88 88 SW 9 17 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 88 88 SW 6 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 87 87 SSW 5 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 88 88 SSW 5 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 89 89 SSW 5 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 90 91 SSW 5 11 1528 1528 112 White 0
9 AM Wed 93 96 SW 5 11 2641 2641 1225 White 6
10 AM Wed 97 102 SW 6 12 3432 3144 1728 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 100 107 WSW 6 13 5098 3973 2557 White 17
12 Noon Wed 103 111 WSW 8 14 5956 5956 4540 White 21
1 PM Wed 106 114 WSW 8 17 6597 6597 5181 White 24
2 PM Wed 108 116 WSW 9 18 7023 7023 5607 White 26
3 PM Wed 109 115 WSW 9 19 6810 6810 5394 White 25
4 PM Wed 109 113 WSW 10 19 6383 6383 4967 White 23
5 PM Wed 109 111 WSW 10 19 5956 5956 4540 White 21
6 PM Wed 107 107 WSW 10 19 5098 3973 2557 White 17
7 PM Wed 106 106 WSW 11 19 4877 3579 2163 White 16
8 PM Wed 104 104 WSW 11 19 4429 3263 1847 White 14
9 PM Wed 102 102 WSW 11 20 3432 3144 1728 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 99 99 SW 11 20 3145 3077 1661 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 97 97 SW 11 20 2862 2862 1446 White 7
12 Midnight Thu 95 95 SW 11 19 2420 2420 1004 White 0
1 AM Thu 93 93 SW 10 18 1974 1974 558 White 0
2 AM Thu 91 91 SW 9 16 1528 1528 112 White 0
3 AM Thu 90 90 SW 8 13 1304 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 89 89 SSW 6 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 87 87 SSW 5 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 89 89 SSW 5 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 90 90 SSW 5 9 1304 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 91 92 SSW 5 9 1751 1751 335 White 0
9 AM Thu 95 98 SW 5 9 3085 3051 1635 White 8
10 AM Thu 98 103 SW 6 10 3591 3158 1742 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 102 108 SW 6 11 5313 4795 3379 White 18
12 Noon Thu 104 111 SW 6 12 5956 5956 4540 White 21
1 PM Thu 106 114 WSW 8 14 6597 6597 5181 White 24
2 PM Thu 109 116 WSW 8 16 7023 7023 5607 White 26
3 PM Thu 109 114 WSW 9 17 6597 6597 5181 White 24
4 PM Thu 110 113 WSW 9 18 6383 6383 4967 White 23
5 PM Thu 111 113 WSW 10 18 6383 6383 4967 White 23
6 PM Thu 109 109 WSW 10 18 5527 5527 4111 White 19
7 PM Thu 107 107 WSW 10 17 5098 3973 2557 White 17
8 PM Thu 105 105 WSW 10 17 4653 3421 2005 White 15
9 PM Thu 102 102 WSW 10 17 3432 3144 1728 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 99 99 SW 9 16 3145 3077 1661 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]