NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.

Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Sounding

Station:

 KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

 31 MAY 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

 NOAA Digital Forecast
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Site
Name		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain WSW 19 8212 WNW 9 8024 W 14 9502 W 12 12141 W 10 13231 WSW 17 13231
Oatman Mt WSW 15 8825 S 10 10635 WSW 11 11902
Shaw Butte SW 17 8168 SSW 6 8168 WSW 12 9481 WSW 11 11955 WSW 10 12902 WSW 13 12644
The Y SSE 15 9297 S 12 9297 SW 11 13141
Phoenix Regional WSW 20 9380 SSE 6 9008 WNW 11 10295 WNW 10 12775 NW 10 13738 SW 16 13738
Humbolt SW 18 6739 SSW 9 5621 WSW 12 8108 SW 12 12047 SW 11 12838 SSW 13 12440
Miller Canyon SSW 25 13404 SW 17 9899 W 13 13602 WNW 12 13995 S 12 14578 SSW 16 14773
Box Canyon SW 24 12033 W 14 11200 WNW 14 12033 NW 13 12644 NW 13 13228 SSW 18 13035
Mustang Mountain SW 26 11856 WSW 16 9108 WNW 14 11856 WNW 13 12468 S 13 12874 SSW 17 13074
Whetstone Mountain SW 25 14452 SW 17 8817 W 11 13479
Mt Lemmon SW 25 20548 WSW 8 19085 WNW 10 20187
A Mountain WSW 19 11925 W 11 9868 WNW 12 11659 WNW 11 13360 W 11 14328 SW 16 14136
Rainbow Valley WSW 14 8943 SE 5 9409 W 10 10611 W 10 13060 W 10 15056 SW 17 13962
Pinal Peak WSW 26 6002 WSW 12 3946 W 18 6002 W 16 9887 W 16 10735 SW 18 10940
Harquahala SSE 16 3361 S 16 4597 S 12 5179 WSW 12 8932 SSW 12 11043 S 18 8932
El Tiro Gliderport SW 26 11738 SSE 8 8298 NW 9 9857
Mt Ord SSW 21 7368 WSW 11 5494 WSW 16 7650 SW 14 12812 SW 13 13600 SSW 16 13403

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]