NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain WSW 17 4179 W 16 916 W 14 5413 W 10 8814 W 11 9165 W 13 9512
Oatman Mt WSW 16 3583 WNW 13 3583 W 11 7330 WSW 10 8784 SW 11 8784 SW 13 8988
Shaw Butte WSW 13 4355 W 13 1643 WSW 13 6572 SW 9 8029 SW 10 8233 SW 11 8435
The Y SSW 21 2054 WNW 18 1446 W 18 5935 SW 13 7957 SSW 16 8643 S 17 8643
Phoenix Regional W 14 7170 W 14 2456 WNW 12 7170 WNW 9 9041 W 9 9445 SW 12 9647
Humbolt SSW 17 3279 WSW 14 1305 WSW 13 5938 SW 11 8379 SSW 12 8035 SSW 14 8720
Miller Canyon SW 26 7064 W 33 4551 NW 14 6368 WSW 12 9120 WSW 16 10957 SW 18 10061
Box Canyon SW 24 8703 W 29 4962 NNW 16 7360 WNW 13 10294 W 16 11648 SW 19 11208
Mustang Mountain WSW 26 7956 W 32 5144 NW 14 6918 W 13 9563 WSW 14 11447 SW 18 10530
Whetstone Mountain WSW 28 8200 W 35 5070 NW 17 6435 WSW 13 9456 W 17 10919 SW 21 10444
Mt Lemmon SW 34 4496 W 35 0 WNW 19 3389 W 13 6187 W 16 7185 WSW 19 7681
A Mountain WSW 19 9291 WNW 21 3962 NW 13 8278 WNW 11 10642 W 12 11295 SW 16 11616
Rainbow Valley WSW 13 5400 W 13 3460 W 10 7329 W 9 8782 W 10 8988 WSW 12 9192
Pinal Peak SW 19 3415 W 23 0 W 17 3415 W 13 6400 W 16 6400 WSW 17 6737
Harquahala WSW 21 300 WNW 17 0 WNW 18 3940 SW 12 6634 SSW 14 6277 S 16 6634
El Tiro Gliderport WSW 19 8583 WNW 18 2536 NW 12 6316 NW 10 9844 W 12 10861 WSW 14 11520
Mt Ord SSW 19 3916 WSW 20 0 WSW 19 4252 SW 13 6798 SW 17 7143 SW 18 7485

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]