Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.991, -111.919, 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 E 4 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 E 3 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 ENE 3 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 ENE 4 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 E 5 11 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 E 4 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 E 4 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 ESE 2 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 E 5 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 51 51 E 4 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 54 55 E 4 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 58 58 E 5 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 61 61 E 5 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 63 63 E 6 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 65 65 E 5 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 67 67 ESE 4 4 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 66 66 ESE 3 4 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 64 64 SSW 1 2 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 61 61 WSW 1 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 59 59 WNW 1 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 58 58 NNW 1 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 NE 0 1 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 E 0 1 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 SE 2 4 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 SE 3 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 SSE 2 4 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 SE 3 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 ESE 2 4 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 ESE 2 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 ESE 2 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 ESE 3 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 E 3 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 ESE 4 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 58 58 SE 3 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 61 62 SE 4 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 63 65 SSE 3 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 66 68 SSE 4 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 68 70 SSE 5 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 70 72 S 6 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 71 72 SSW 7 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 71 71 S 6 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 68 68 SE 2 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 65 65 S 0 1 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 62 62 W 3 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 60 60 WNW 3 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 WNW 2 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 WNW 1 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 WSW 2 4 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 SW 2 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 2 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 2 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 S 4 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 S 5 11 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 S 5 11 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 S 4 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 SSW 4 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 S 4 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 S 4 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 57 58 S 3 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 60 62 S 3 4 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 62 65 SSW 4 4 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 64 66 SW 4 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 65 67 WSW 4 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 65 66 WNW 4 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 65 65 NW 5 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 64 64 NW 6 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 62 62 NW 6 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 60 60 NW 6 13 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 WNW 6 13 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 WNW 6 13 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 WNW 5 11 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 WNW 4 8 1289 1300 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]