Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.5936, -112.086495, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 ENE 3 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 ENE 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 ENE 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 E 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 ENE 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 NE 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 NE 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 NE 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 NE 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 54 54 NE 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 60 60 NE 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 63 64 ESE 4 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 67 68 SE 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 70 70 ESE 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 70 70 SE 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 70 70 SSE 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 70 70 SSW 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 69 69 W 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 65 65 N 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 61 61 NNE 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 59 59 NE 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 ENE 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 E 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 E 3 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 E 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 E 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 E 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 E 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 E 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 E 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 E 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 E 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 E 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 56 56 ESE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 61 61 ESE 4 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 66 67 SE 5 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 68 69 SE 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 70 71 SSE 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 71 72 S 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 71 71 S 4 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 70 70 SW 3 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 68 68 SW 2 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 65 65 W 1 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 62 62 NNW 1 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 58 58 N 1 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 NNE 1 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 NNE 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 NE 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 NE 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 NE 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 NE 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 NE 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 NE 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 NE 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 NE 2 2 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 NE 2 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 NE 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 ENE 2 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 56 57 E 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 62 64 ESE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 65 67 SE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 66 68 S 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 67 69 SSW 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 68 69 SW 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 67 67 WSW 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 66 66 WSW 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 63 63 W 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 59 59 WNW 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 56 56 NW 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 NNW 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 N 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 NNE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 NNE 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 NE 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 NE 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 NE 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 NE 5 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 NE 5 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 NE 5 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 NE 5 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 NE 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 NE 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 56 57 ENE 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 61 63 ENE 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 65 68 ESE 5 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 67 69 S 5 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 68 70 SW 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 69 70 SW 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 68 68 WSW 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 67 67 WSW 5 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 64 64 W 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 61 61 NNW 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 N 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 N 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 NNE 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 NE 5 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 NE 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 NNE 6 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 NNE 6 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 NNE 6 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 NE 6 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 NE 6 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NE 6 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NE 6 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 NE 6 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 NE 6 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 59 60 ENE 6 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 64 66 ENE 6 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 68 70 ENE 8 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 71 73 E 9 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 72 74 E 9 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 72 73 E 8 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 72 72 E 6 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 70 70 E 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 67 67 E 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 63 63 NE 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 NE 5 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 59 59 NE 6 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 NE 8 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 NE 9 13 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 NE 9 14 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 NE 9 14 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 NE 9 14 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 NE 9 14 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 NE 9 13 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 NE 9 13 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 NE 9 13 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 NE 9 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 NE 9 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 55 55 ENE 9 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 61 61 ENE 9 13 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 66 67 ENE 9 13 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 70 71 E 9 13 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 72 73 E 10 14 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 73 74 E 10 14 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 74 74 E 10 14 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 73 73 E 9 13 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 72 72 E 8 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 69 69 E 8 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 66 66 E 6 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 63 63 ENE 6 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 ENE 6 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 ENE 6 10 1295 2150 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]