Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.330881748, -112.061150641, 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time UTC:

250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 NW 2 2 2938 2899 299 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 61 61 NNW 2 2 2938 2899 299 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 61 61 N 2 2 2938 2899 299 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 59 59 E 2 2 2912 2842 242 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 59 59 ESE 2 3 2912 2842 242 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 58 58 SE 2 3 2900 2777 177 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 58 58 SE 3 3 2900 2777 177 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 57 57 SE 4 4 2877 2699 99 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 57 57 SE 5 5 2877 2699 99 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 60 60 SE 5 6 2925 2876 276 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 61 61 SE 4 6 2938 2899 299 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 63 64 SSE 4 6 3026 2938 338 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 66 67 S 4 8 3620 3025 425 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 68 69 SW 4 9 3890 3479 879 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 69 70 WSW 5 10 4025 3613 1013 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 70 71 W 5 11 4160 3748 1148 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 70 70 W 6 11 4025 3613 1013 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 71 71 W 6 11 4160 3748 1148 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 69 69 WSW 6 10 3890 3479 879 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 67 67 WSW 5 9 3620 3025 425 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 5 6 3026 2938 338 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 5 6 3026 2938 338 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 62 62 SW 5 6 2951 2912 312 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 5 6 2951 2912 312 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 WSW 4 5 2925 2876 276 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 60 60 SSW 4 4 2925 2876 276 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 59 59 SSW 4 4 2912 2842 242 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 58 58 ESE 4 4 2900 2777 177 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 57 57 ESE 4 4 2877 2699 99 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 56 56 ESE 4 4 2843 2621 21 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 56 56 SE 4 5 2843 2621 21 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 55 55 SE 4 5 2778 2600 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 54 54 ESE 4 5 2700 2600 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 58 59 ESE 4 5 2912 2842 242 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 61 63 E 3 5 2986 2925 325 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 62 65 ENE 3 5 3274 2951 351 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 64 68 NNE 4 6 3755 3259 659 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 66 70 WNW 4 9 4025 3613 1013 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 68 71 WSW 5 10 4160 3748 1148 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 68 70 W 5 10 4025 3613 1013 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 69 70 W 5 10 4025 3613 1013 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 69 69 W 5 9 3890 3479 879 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 67 67 W 4 6 3620 3025 425 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 66 66 W 3 4 3484 2985 385 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 64 64 W 2 3 3026 2938 338 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 63 63 WNW 2 3 2986 2925 325 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 62 62 NNE 2 3 2951 2912 312 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 61 61 ENE 2 3 2938 2899 299 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 E 2 3 2925 2876 276 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 59 59 E 3 3 2912 2842 242 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 58 58 E 3 3 2900 2777 177 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 57 57 E 4 5 2877 2699 99 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 57 57 E 4 5 2877 2699 99 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 56 56 E 5 6 2843 2621 21 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 56 56 E 5 6 2843 2621 21 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 56 56 E 5 6 2843 2621 21 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 55 55 E 5 5 2778 2600 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 58 58 E 5 5 2900 2777 177 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 60 62 E 4 5 2951 2912 312 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 63 66 E 4 5 3484 2985 385 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 66 70 SE 4 6 4025 3613 1013 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 68 72 SW 3 6 4398 3883 1283 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 71 74 W 3 8 5392 4152 1552 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 71 73 W 3 8 4640 4017 1417 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 72 73 WNW 4 8 4640 4017 1417 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 72 72 NW 4 6 4398 3883 1283 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 70 70 NW 3 5 4025 3613 1013 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 68 68 WNW 3 4 3755 3259 659 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 66 66 WNW 2 3 3484 2985 385 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 65 65 W 2 3 3274 2951 351 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 64 64 SW 2 3 3026 2938 338 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 63 63 S 2 3 2986 2925 325 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 S 2 3 2951 2912 312 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 61 61 SE 2 3 2938 2899 299 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 60 60 ESE 2 3 2925 2876 276 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 59 59 ESE 2 3 2912 2842 242 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 58 58 E 3 3 2900 2777 177 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 57 57 E 3 3 2877 2699 99 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 57 57 E 3 3 2877 2699 99 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 57 57 E 3 4 2877 2699 99 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 56 56 E 3 4 2843 2621 21 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 59 60 ESE 3 4 2925 2876 276 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 62 64 ESE 3 4 3026 2938 338 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 65 68 SE 3 5 3755 3259 659 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 67 71 S 3 8 4160 3748 1148 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 69 73 WSW 4 9 4640 4017 1417 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 71 74 W 5 11 5392 4152 1552 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 71 73 W 6 12 4640 4017 1417 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 72 73 W 8 13 4640 4017 1417 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 72 72 W 9 13 4398 3883 1283 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 70 70 W 9 12 4025 3613 1013 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 68 68 W 8 10 3755 3259 659 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 66 66 WSW 6 8 3484 2985 385 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 65 65 WSW 6 6 3274 2951 351 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 64 64 WSW 5 6 3026 2938 338 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 63 63 WSW 5 6 2986 2925 325 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 W 5 5 2951 2912 312 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 61 61 W 5 6 2938 2899 299 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 60 60 W 5 6 2925 2876 276 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 59 59 NW 5 6 2912 2842 242 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 58 58 NNE 4 5 2900 2777 177 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 57 57 ENE 4 4 2877 2699 99 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 56 56 ENE 4 5 2843 2621 21 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 56 56 NE 5 6 2843 2621 21 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 56 56 NE 5 5 2843 2621 21 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 58 59 NE 5 5 2912 2842 242 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 61 63 NE 4 6 2986 2925 325 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 63 66 NNE 4 6 3484 2985 385 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 65 69 N 4 8 3890 3479 879 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 68 72 WNW 4 9 4398 3883 1283 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 70 74 W 4 10 5392 4152 1552 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 71 73 W 4 10 4640 4017 1417 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 71 72 W 5 10 4398 3883 1283 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 72 72 W 5 10 4398 3883 1283 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 69 69 W 5 9 3890 3479 879 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 67 67 W 5 6 3620 3025 425 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 64 64 W 5 5 3026 2938 338 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 63 63 W 5 5 2986 2925 325 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 61 61 W 4 5 2938 2899 299 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 60 60 W 4 5 2925 2876 276 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 NW 4 5 2912 2842 242 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 58 58 NE 4 4 2900 2777 177 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 57 57 E 4 4 2877 2699 99 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 56 56 E 4 5 2843 2621 21 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 55 55 ENE 5 6 2778 2600 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 5 6 2700 2600 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 55 55 ENE 5 6 2778 2600 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 55 55 E 5 6 2778 2600 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 56 56 E 5 5 2843 2621 21 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 58 59 E 5 6 2912 2842 242 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 61 63 E 4 6 2986 2925 325 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 64 67 E 4 8 3620 3025 425 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 66 70 NE 4 8 4025 3613 1013 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 69 73 N 4 8 4640 4017 1417 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 71 75 NNW 4 8 5985 4381 1781 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 72 74 NW 4 8 5392 4152 1552 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 72 73 NW 4 8 4640 4017 1417 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 73 73 WNW 4 6 4640 4017 1417 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 70 70 WNW 3 5 4025 3613 1013 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 68 68 WNW 3 4 3755 3259 659 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 66 66 W 2 3 3484 2985 385 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 65 65 WNW 2 3 3274 2951 351 Blue 13
10 PM Sat 64 64 NW 2 3 3026 2938 338 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]