Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.330881748, -112.061150641, 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 88 88 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 86 86 ENE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 84 84 E 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 83 83 E 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 81 81 ENE 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 81 81 E 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 80 80 E 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 79 79 E 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 81 81 E 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 86 88 E 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 89 92 E 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 93 97 E 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 97 102 E 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 99 104 E 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 100 104 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 101 104 E 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 101 102 E 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 100 100 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 98 98 NNE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 95 95 E 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 92 92 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 90 90 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 89 89 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 87 87 E 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 86 86 ESE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 84 84 ESE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 83 83 ESE 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 82 82 ESE 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 80 80 ESE 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 80 80 ESE 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 79 79 ESE 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 78 78 ESE 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 81 81 E 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 84 85 ESE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 87 90 ESE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 91 95 ESE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 93 97 SE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 96 100 SSE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 98 101 SSE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 99 101 S 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 99 100 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 99 99 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 96 96 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 92 92 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 89 89 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 88 88 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 86 86 NW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 85 85 NW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 84 84 N 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 83 83 ENE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 82 82 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 80 80 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 79 79 E 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 77 77 ENE 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 78 78 E 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 79 79 E 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 79 79 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 82 83 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 86 88 ESE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 89 92 ESE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 91 95 ENE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 94 97 NNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 96 99 WNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 97 99 WNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 97 98 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 97 97 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 94 94 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 90 90 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 87 87 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 86 86 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 84 84 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 83 83 NE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 82 82 NE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 80 80 ENE 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 79 79 ENE 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 78 78 ENE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 77 77 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 75 75 E 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 76 76 E 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 77 77 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 78 78 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 81 83 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 85 88 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 88 92 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 91 96 SSE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 94 99 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 96 100 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 97 100 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 97 98 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 97 97 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 94 94 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 91 91 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 88 88 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 87 87 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 85 85 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 84 84 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 82 82 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 81 81 NNE 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 79 79 NE 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 78 78 ENE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 77 77 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 76 76 ESE 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 77 77 ESE 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 78 78 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 79 79 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 82 83 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 85 88 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 88 92 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 91 96 SSE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 94 98 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 96 100 WNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 97 99 WNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 97 98 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 97 97 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 94 94 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 91 91 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 88 88 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 87 87 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 85 85 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 84 84 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 83 83 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 81 81 NW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 80 80 NW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 78 78 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 77 77 NE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 76 76 E 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 77 77 E 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 78 78 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 79 79 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 82 83 ESE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 85 88 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 88 92 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 90 95 SSE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 93 98 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 95 99 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 96 99 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 96 97 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 96 96 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 93 93 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 91 91 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 88 88 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 86 86 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 85 85 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]