Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.330881748, -112.061150641, 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 97 97 W 8 9 3556 3155 555 Blue 13
1 AM Sat 96 96 W 6 8 3396 3141 541 Blue 12
2 AM Sat 95 95 W 6 6 3235 3124 524 Blue 11
3 AM Sat 92 92 WNW 6 6 3125 3044 444 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 91 91 ESE 5 6 3098 2999 399 Blue 7
5 AM Sat 90 90 ESE 5 6 3071 2949 349 Blue 6
6 AM Sat 89 89 SE 5 5 3044 2663 63 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 91 91 ESE 5 5 3098 2999 399 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 91 93 NW 4 5 3141 3070 470 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 94 98 NW 4 6 3870 3230 630 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 97 103 WNW 5 9 11202 6545 3945 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 99 106 WNW 5 10 13904 10803 8203 White 22
12 Noon Sat 102 111 WNW 5 11 14920 14920 12320 White 27
1 PM Sat 103 111 W 6 12 14920 14920 12320 White 27
2 PM Sat 105 113 WNW 8 14 15319 15319 12719 White 29
3 PM Sat 106 112 WNW 8 14 15121 15121 12521 White 28
4 PM Sat 106 110 WNW 8 16 14717 14717 12117 White 26
5 PM Sat 107 109 WNW 8 14 14514 14514 11914 White 25
6 PM Sat 105 105 WNW 10 14 13701 9621 7021 White 21
7 PM Sat 104 104 WNW 11 14 11514 8301 5701 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 101 101 W 13 17 8585 3827 1227 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 99 99 W 13 18 4739 3390 790 Blue 15
10 PM Sat 98 98 W 16 19 3870 3230 630 Blue 14
11 PM Sat 97 97 W 17 20 3556 3155 555 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sun 96 96 W 16 18 3396 3141 541 Blue 12
1 AM Sun 94 94 W 14 17 3155 3097 497 Blue 10
2 AM Sun 93 93 W 13 13 3141 3070 470 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 90 90 W 12 13 3071 2949 349 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 89 89 W 10 11 3044 2663 63 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 88 88 W 8 9 3000 2600 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 87 87 W 8 9 2950 2600 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 87 87 W 8 9 2950 2600 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 88 90 W 6 9 3071 2949 349 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 89 93 W 6 10 3141 3070 470 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 92 97 W 6 11 3556 3155 555 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 95 101 W 8 13 8585 3827 1227 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 97 104 W 9 16 11514 8301 5701 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 100 107 W 9 17 14108 11449 8849 White 23
2 PM Sun 102 108 W 10 18 14311 11792 9192 White 24
3 PM Sun 102 106 W 10 18 13904 10803 8203 White 22
4 PM Sun 102 104 W 10 18 11514 8301 5701 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 102 103 W 10 18 11202 6545 3945 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 101 101 W 11 18 8585 3827 1227 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 99 99 WSW 12 18 4739 3390 790 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 98 98 SW 13 18 3870 3230 630 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 97 97 WSW 13 18 3556 3155 555 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 95 95 WSW 13 18 3235 3124 524 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 94 94 WSW 13 18 3155 3097 497 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 92 92 WSW 13 17 3125 3044 444 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 91 91 WSW 12 16 3098 2999 399 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 89 89 WSW 11 13 3044 2663 63 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 88 88 WSW 10 11 3000 2600 0 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 87 87 W 9 10 2950 2600 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 86 86 W 8 9 2666 2600 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 87 87 W 6 9 2950 2600 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 87 87 WSW 6 9 2950 2600 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 88 89 WSW 6 9 3044 2663 63 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 89 91 WSW 6 10 3098 2999 399 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 91 95 W 6 11 3235 3124 524 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 93 97 W 8 12 3556 3155 555 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 95 100 W 9 13 6840 3550 950 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 97 102 W 9 16 9902 4677 2077 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 100 105 W 10 17 13701 9621 7021 White 21
3 PM Mon 100 104 W 10 17 11514 8301 5701 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 101 104 W 10 17 11514 8301 5701 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 101 102 W 10 17 9902 4677 2077 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 100 100 W 10 16 6840 3550 950 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 100 100 W 11 16 6840 3550 950 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 99 99 WSW 11 14 4739 3390 790 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 98 98 WSW 12 14 3870 3230 630 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 97 97 WSW 12 14 3556 3155 555 Blue 13
11 PM Mon 96 96 WSW 12 14 3396 3141 541 Blue 12
12 Midnight Tue 94 94 WSW 11 13 3155 3097 497 Blue 10
1 AM Tue 93 93 WSW 10 11 3141 3070 470 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 91 91 WSW 9 10 3098 2999 399 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 90 90 WSW 8 9 3071 2949 349 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 89 89 WSW 6 8 3044 2663 63 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 87 87 WSW 5 6 2950 2600 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 88 88 WSW 5 6 3000 2600 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 88 88 WSW 5 6 3000 2600 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 89 90 SW 5 6 3071 2949 349 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 91 94 WSW 5 8 3155 3097 497 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 93 98 WSW 5 9 3870 3230 630 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 95 101 W 5 11 8585 3827 1227 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 97 104 W 6 13 11514 8301 5701 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 99 106 W 8 16 13904 10803 8203 White 22
2 PM Tue 102 109 W 9 17 14514 14514 11914 White 25
3 PM Tue 102 107 W 9 18 14108 11449 8849 White 23
4 PM Tue 103 106 W 10 18 13904 10803 8203 White 22
5 PM Tue 104 106 W 10 18 13904 10803 8203 White 22
6 PM Tue 103 103 W 11 17 11202 6545 3945 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 102 102 W 11 17 9902 4677 2077 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 101 101 WSW 12 16 8585 3827 1227 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 100 100 WSW 13 16 6840 3550 950 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 98 98 WSW 13 16 3870 3230 630 Blue 14
11 PM Tue 97 97 WSW 13 16 3556 3155 555 Blue 13
12 Midnight Wed 95 95 WSW 12 14 3235 3124 524 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 93 93 W 11 13 3141 3070 470 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 91 91 W 10 11 3098 2999 399 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 90 90 W 9 9 3071 2949 349 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 89 89 WSW 6 6 3044 2663 63 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 87 87 WSW 5 5 2950 2600 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 88 88 WSW 5 5 3000 2600 0 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 88 88 WSW 5 5 3000 2600 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 89 90 SW 5 6 3071 2949 349 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 91 94 WSW 5 8 3155 3097 497 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 94 99 WSW 5 9 4739 3390 790 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 96 102 W 5 10 9902 4677 2077 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 99 106 W 6 12 13904 10803 8203 White 22
1 PM Wed 101 109 W 8 14 14514 14514 11914 White 25
2 PM Wed 104 111 W 9 16 14920 14920 12320 White 27
3 PM Wed 104 109 W 9 17 14514 14514 11914 White 25
4 PM Wed 105 109 W 10 17 14514 14514 11914 White 25
5 PM Wed 105 107 W 10 17 14108 11449 8849 White 23
6 PM Wed 104 104 W 10 17 11514 8301 5701 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 103 103 WSW 11 16 11202 6545 3945 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 102 102 WSW 11 16 9902 4677 2077 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 101 101 WSW 11 16 8585 3827 1227 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 99 99 WSW 11 16 4739 3390 790 Blue 15
11 PM Wed 98 98 WSW 11 14 3870 3230 630 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 96 96 WSW 11 12 3396 3141 541 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 94 94 WSW 10 11 3155 3097 497 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 92 92 WSW 9 9 3125 3044 444 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 91 91 WSW 8 8 3098 2999 399 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 90 90 SSW 6 6 3071 2949 349 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 88 88 SSW 5 6 3000 2600 0 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 89 89 SSW 4 6 3044 2663 63 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 89 89 S 4 6 3044 2663 63 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 90 91 S 4 6 3098 2999 399 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 92 95 S 4 6 3235 3124 524 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 95 100 SW 4 8 6840 3550 950 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 98 104 SW 4 9 11514 8301 5701 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 100 107 WSW 5 10 14108 11449 8849 White 23
1 PM Thu 102 109 W 5 12 14514 14514 11914 White 25
2 PM Thu 104 110 W 6 13 14717 14717 12117 White 26
3 PM Thu 105 109 W 8 14 14514 14514 11914 White 25
4 PM Thu 105 108 W 8 16 14311 11792 9192 White 24
5 PM Thu 106 107 W 9 16 14108 11449 8849 White 23
6 PM Thu 104 104 W 9 16 11514 8301 5701 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 103 103 WSW 10 14 11202 6545 3945 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 101 101 SW 10 13 8585 3827 1227 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 100 100 SW 10 12 6840 3550 950 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 98 98 SW 10 12 3870 3230 630 Blue 14

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]