Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1885, -112.7558, 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 48 48 NNE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 49 49 NE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 48 48 NE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 47 47 NNE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 46 46 NNE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 44 44 NNE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 45 45 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 46 46 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 51 51 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 56 57 ENE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 60 62 SE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 61 63 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 63 65 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 64 66 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 65 66 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 66 66 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 64 64 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 59 59 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 57 57 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 53 53 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 53 53 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 53 53 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 52 52 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 50 50 NNE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 50 50 NNE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 49 49 NNE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 48 48 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 47 47 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 45 45 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 45 45 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 46 46 ENE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 50 50 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 56 57 ESE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 59 61 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 61 64 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 63 66 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 64 66 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 64 65 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 63 63 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 62 62 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 59 59 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 55 55 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 52 52 N 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 51 51 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 50 50 NNE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 50 50 NE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 NE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 48 48 NE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 46 46 NE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 45 45 NE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 44 44 NE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 43 43 NNE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 42 42 NNE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 42 42 NNE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 43 43 NNE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 48 48 NNE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 54 55 NE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 59 61 NE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 62 65 N 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 63 66 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 63 65 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 64 65 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 63 63 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 62 62 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 55 55 NNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 52 52 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 51 51 N 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 51 51 N 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 51 51 NNE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 NNE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 50 50 NNE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 49 49 NNE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 48 48 NNE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 47 47 NNE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 47 47 NNE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 45 45 NNE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 45 45 NE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 45 45 NE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 49 49 ENE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 55 56 ESE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 59 61 SE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 62 65 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 63 66 SSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 63 65 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 63 64 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 63 63 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 61 61 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 58 58 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 54 54 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 51 51 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 50 50 N 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 50 50 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 50 50 NNE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 NNE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 49 49 NE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 48 48 NE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 47 47 NE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 47 47 NE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 47 47 NE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 46 46 NE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 46 46 ENE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 47 47 ENE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 50 50 E 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 55 56 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 59 60 SSE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 61 63 SSE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 62 64 S 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 62 63 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 62 63 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 61 61 SSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 60 60 SSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 57 57 SSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 54 54 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 51 51 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 50 50 SSE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 51 51 E 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 51 51 ENE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 ENE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 49 49 ENE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 48 48 ENE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 47 47 ENE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 46 46 ENE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 45 45 ENE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 44 44 E 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 45 45 ESE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 48 48 SE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 53 54 SSE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 56 57 S 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 58 60 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 59 61 S 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 59 61 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 59 60 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 58 58 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 57 57 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 55 55 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 53 53 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 51 51 S 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 50 50 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 49 49 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]