Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1885, -112.7558, 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time UTC:

 250417/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SSE 12 18 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 SSE 12 17 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 SE 11 17 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 SE 12 18 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 SE 13 19 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 SE 13 19 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 SE 14 20 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 SE 16 21 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 52 SE 16 25 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 58 SSE 17 28 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 61 S 18 29 3932 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 64 S 18 29 6959 4900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 61 69 S 18 28 8619 7145 2245 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 62 69 SSW 18 29 8619 7145 2245 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 64 70 SSW 18 29 8715 7266 2366 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 64 69 SSW 19 31 8619 7145 2245 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 65 68 SW 19 31 7989 7048 2148 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 64 65 SW 18 29 7056 4900 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 63 63 SW 18 28 5931 4900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 59 59 SW 17 27 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 57 SW 14 25 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 SW 13 18 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 SW 11 16 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 9 14 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SW 8 11 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 SSW 8 11 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 S 6 11 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 S 9 12 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 S 10 14 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 S 10 14 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 S 12 18 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 S 13 19 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 S 13 23 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 52 S 14 23 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 54 S 14 23 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 55 SSW 13 23 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 55 58 SSW 13 21 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 56 58 SW 13 21 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 57 59 WSW 13 21 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 57 58 WSW 14 24 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 56 57 W 17 27 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 55 W 17 27 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 53 W 16 26 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 WNW 13 21 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 WNW 11 18 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 NW 9 13 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 NNW 8 11 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 N 6 11 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 N 6 10 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 N 8 10 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 N 8 12 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 N 9 12 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 N 10 13 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 N 10 14 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 N 10 14 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 N 10 14 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 48 N 9 14 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 53 N 9 14 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 58 NNW 9 13 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 63 NW 8 14 5931 4900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 59 66 NW 9 13 7154 5881 981 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 61 68 WNW 10 16 7989 7048 2148 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 62 68 WNW 10 18 7989 7048 2148 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 63 68 WNW 11 18 7989 7048 2148 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 64 67 W 11 18 7330 6951 2051 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 63 64 W 11 19 6959 4900 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 61 61 W 12 19 3932 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 WNW 11 18 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 WNW 11 18 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 NW 11 16 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 NNW 10 14 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 N 9 12 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 N 10 13 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 N 10 13 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 NNE 10 13 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 NNE 10 13 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 NE 10 13 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 NE 9 13 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 NE 9 12 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 NE 8 11 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 54 NE 8 12 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 60 NE 8 12 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 66 NW 8 12 7154 5881 981 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 64 71 WSW 6 12 8800 7915 3015 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 66 74 W 9 13 10167 8788 3888 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 68 75 WSW 9 13 10587 9141 4241 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 69 75 WSW 9 14 10587 9141 4241 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 71 76 WSW 9 14 11000 9620 4720 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 71 74 WSW 9 14 10167 8788 3888 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 71 72 WSW 9 14 9218 8535 3635 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 69 69 WSW 8 13 8619 7145 2245 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 65 65 WSW 8 13 7056 4900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 62 62 WSW 8 12 4435 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 W 6 10 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 59 NW 6 9 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 NNW 6 9 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 N 6 9 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 N 6 10 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 N 8 11 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 NNE 8 11 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 NNE 9 12 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 NNE 9 12 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 NNE 9 12 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 NNE 9 12 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 59 NNE 8 13 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 66 NNE 8 13 7154 5881 981 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 67 71 WSW 9 14 8800 7915 3015 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 71 77 SW 9 16 11405 10087 5187 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 73 79 WSW 10 17 12147 10911 6011 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 75 81 WSW 11 18 13174 11708 6808 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 75 80 SW 11 18 12442 11313 6413 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 75 79 SW 11 18 12147 10911 6011 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 75 77 SW 11 19 11405 10087 5187 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 73 74 SW 11 18 10167 8788 3888 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 70 70 SW 11 17 8715 7266 2366 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 67 67 SW 10 16 7330 6951 2051 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 64 64 SW 10 16 6959 4900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 62 62 SW 9 12 4435 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 WSW 9 12 3932 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 SW 6 11 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 SSW 9 12 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 SSW 9 12 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 S 9 12 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 SSE 9 13 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 SE 10 14 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 ESE 10 14 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 SE 10 14 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 SSE 10 14 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 60 SSE 10 16 3692 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 66 S 10 17 7154 5881 981 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 67 72 S 11 17 9218 8535 3635 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 71 78 S 11 18 11804 10503 5603 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 73 81 S 12 19 13174 11708 6808 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 74 81 SSW 12 20 13174 11708 6808 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 74 80 SSW 12 20 12442 11313 6413 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 74 79 SSW 12 20 12147 10911 6011 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 73 76 SSW 12 19 11000 9620 4720 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 72 73 SW 11 19 9702 8703 3803 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 69 69 SSW 11 19 8619 7145 2245 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 66 66 SSW 11 18 7154 5881 981 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 63 63 SSW 11 18 5931 4900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 61 61 S 10 14 3932 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 SSE 10 13 3692 4900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]