Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1885, -112.7558, 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 N 3 6 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 N 3 6 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 NNE 2 5 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 NE 2 4 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 ENE 2 4 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 ENE 2 5 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 E 2 4 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 N 2 3 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 ESE 3 6 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 50 ESE 2 5 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 54 ESE 3 6 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 57 SE 2 4 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 60 SSE 2 3 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 61 S 3 3 4763 4900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 63 S 3 4 5052 4900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 63 63 SSW 3 4 5052 4900 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 62 62 S 3 4 4951 4900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 59 59 S 4 5 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 55 S 4 8 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 53 SSE 2 6 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 ESE 2 5 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 E 2 5 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 E 2 6 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 ESE 4 8 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 ESE 4 9 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 ESE 4 8 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 ESE 4 8 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 ESE 4 10 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 ESE 5 12 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 ESE 4 8 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 ESE 5 12 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 ESE 5 11 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 ESE 5 12 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 ESE 5 10 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 56 ESE 5 9 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 60 SE 7 8 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 62 SSE 11 12 4951 4900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 63 SSE 13 14 5052 4900 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 61 63 SSE 12 14 5052 4900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 62 63 SSE 11 12 5052 4900 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 61 61 S 9 11 4763 4900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 58 S 10 12 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 54 SSE 8 15 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 SE 6 14 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 SE 5 11 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 ESE 4 9 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 E 4 8 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 E 4 9 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 E 4 8 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 ENE 3 7 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 3 7 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 3 7 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 ENE 3 7 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 NE 3 6 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 NNE 3 7 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 NE 3 7 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 NE 3 8 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 NE 3 8 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 51 NE 3 5 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 55 ENE 1 1 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 57 S 1 2 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 59 SSW 2 3 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 58 60 SW 3 4 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 58 59 WSW 4 4 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 58 58 WSW 4 5 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 56 W 6 7 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 W 6 12 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 WNW 5 11 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 NNW 4 9 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 N 4 10 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 N 5 10 4705 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 N 5 12 4705 4900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]