Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1885, -112.7558, 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 S 10 14 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 SSE 10 14 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 SSE 10 14 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 SSE 9 12 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 SE 8 11 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 ESE 8 10 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 ESE 9 12 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 SE 10 14 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 53 SE 12 20 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 59 SSE 16 25 3818 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 63 SSE 19 32 6437 4900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 60 67 S 19 31 7242 6551 1651 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 61 69 S 18 29 8700 6954 2054 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 62 69 S 18 29 8700 6954 2054 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 63 69 S 19 32 8700 6954 2054 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 63 68 SSW 19 32 7921 6691 1791 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 62 65 SSW 20 34 6710 6346 1446 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 61 62 SSW 21 34 6358 4900 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 59 59 SW 20 33 3818 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 55 SW 19 31 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 WSW 18 28 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 WSW 13 18 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 WSW 11 16 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 W 10 13 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 W 8 11 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 WNW 9 12 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 NW 6 9 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 NW 5 8 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 NNW 5 8 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 NW 5 8 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 NNW 5 8 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 WNW 5 6 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 47 WSW 5 9 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 51 W 8 13 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 55 W 10 16 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 53 58 W 13 21 3024 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 55 61 W 16 25 5526 4900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 57 64 W 16 26 6561 5481 581 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 59 65 W 16 26 6710 6346 1446 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 60 65 W 17 27 6710 6346 1446 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 60 63 WNW 18 28 6437 4900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 59 60 WNW 18 28 4564 4900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 57 WNW 17 26 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 WNW 14 21 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 WNW 12 18 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 WNW 10 14 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 NNW 6 12 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 NNW 5 10 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 N 5 10 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 N 6 10 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 N 8 11 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 N 8 11 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 N 8 12 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 N 8 12 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 N 8 12 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 N 9 13 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 54 N 9 13 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 60 NNW 9 14 4564 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 67 WNW 10 16 7242 6551 1651 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 66 73 W 10 17 10913 9315 4415 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 68 76 W 11 18 11518 10835 5935 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 69 76 W 12 20 11518 10835 5935 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 70 76 W 13 21 11518 10835 5935 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 71 76 W 16 24 11518 10835 5935 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 72 75 W 17 26 11190 10471 5571 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 71 72 W 18 26 10546 8596 3696 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 69 69 W 17 24 8700 6954 2054 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 65 65 W 13 20 6710 6346 1446 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 62 62 W 11 17 6358 4900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 60 60 WNW 10 14 4564 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 NNW 9 13 3818 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 N 8 12 3024 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 N 8 12 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 N 8 12 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 12 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 6 11 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 NNE 5 10 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 NNE 5 10 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 11 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 NE 9 13 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 61 NE 10 14 5526 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 67 E 10 14 7242 6551 1651 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 69 74 S 10 16 11086 9995 5095 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 73 80 SSW 10 16 12957 11795 6895 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 75 83 SW 11 17 13988 12857 7957 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 76 83 SW 12 18 13988 12857 7957 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 77 83 SW 13 19 13988 12857 7957 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 78 83 WSW 13 20 13988 12857 7957 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 78 81 WSW 13 20 13305 12154 7254 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 77 78 WSW 13 20 12247 11167 6267 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 74 74 W 12 19 11086 9995 5095 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 70 70 W 11 17 9430 7217 2317 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 10 14 6976 6431 1531 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 64 64 WNW 9 13 6561 5481 581 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 62 62 N 9 13 6358 4900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 61 61 NNE 9 13 5526 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 NNE 9 13 3818 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 NE 9 13 3024 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 NE 9 13 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 NE 9 13 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 NE 10 14 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 NE 10 14 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 NE 10 14 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 E 10 16 3818 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 64 E 10 16 6561 5481 581 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 67 69 ESE 10 16 8700 6954 2054 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 72 76 S 11 16 11518 10835 5935 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 76 81 S 12 17 13305 12154 7254 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 78 84 SSW 13 19 14324 13202 8302 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 80 85 SSW 14 21 14657 13543 8643 Blue 24
2 PM Thu 80 84 SSW 16 23 14324 13202 8302 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 81 84 SSW 16 23 14324 13202 8302 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 80 81 SW 16 23 13305 12154 7254 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 79 79 SW 14 21 12604 11432 6532 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 76 76 SW 12 19 11518 10835 5935 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 10 17 10546 8596 3696 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 69 69 SW 9 14 8700 6954 2054 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 67 67 SW 9 13 7242 6551 1651 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 65 65 SW 9 12 6710 6346 1446 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 64 64 SW 9 12 6561 5481 581 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 S 9 12 6437 4900 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 61 61 E 9 12 5526 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 NE 9 12 4564 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 NE 9 13 3024 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 ENE 9 13 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 ENE 9 14 2858 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 E 9 14 3024 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 ESE 9 14 5526 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 65 ESE 10 14 6710 6346 1446 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 68 70 SE 11 16 9430 7217 2317 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 72 76 S 12 18 11518 10835 5935 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 76 81 S 13 20 13305 12154 7254 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 78 84 S 14 21 14324 13202 8302 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 79 85 S 16 23 14657 13543 8643 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 79 84 S 17 24 14324 13202 8302 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 79 83 SSW 17 25 13988 12857 7957 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 79 81 SSW 17 25 13305 12154 7254 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 77 78 SSW 16 24 12247 11167 6267 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 74 74 SSW 13 21 11086 9995 5095 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 70 70 SSW 11 18 9430 7217 2317 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 67 67 SSW 10 16 7242 6551 1651 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 65 65 SW 10 14 6710 6346 1446 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 63 63 SW 10 13 6437 4900 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]