Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1885, -112.7558, 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time UTC:

 250122/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 ENE 4 6 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 NNE 4 6 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 NNE 5 8 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 NNE 6 9 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 N 6 10 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 N 8 10 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 N 6 10 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 NNE 8 10 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 NNE 8 12 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 NNE 9 13 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 50 NNE 10 16 4810 4900 0 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 53 55 N 11 18 5651 4991 91 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 57 60 N 11 19 6449 5930 1030 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 60 63 N 12 20 6923 6397 1497 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 61 63 N 13 21 6923 6397 1497 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 61 62 N 13 21 6841 6215 1315 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 62 62 N 14 23 6841 6215 1315 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 59 59 N 14 23 6223 5787 887 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 55 55 N 14 24 5651 4991 91 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 52 52 N 16 26 4993 4900 0 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 48 48 NNE 16 25 4627 4900 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 47 47 NNE 14 20 4535 4900 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 46 46 NNE 12 18 4443 4900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 44 44 NNE 11 16 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 NNE 10 14 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 NNE 10 14 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 NNE 11 14 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 NNE 11 17 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 NNE 13 18 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 NNE 14 20 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 NNE 16 21 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 NNE 17 24 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 33 NNE 17 27 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 39 39 NNE 17 28 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 44 NNE 17 28 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 47 49 NNE 17 27 4718 4900 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 50 53 NNE 17 27 5148 4900 0 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 52 55 NNE 17 26 5651 4991 91 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 53 55 NNE 16 25 5651 4991 91 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 53 54 NNE 14 23 5294 4900 0 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 53 53 NE 13 20 5148 4900 0 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 51 51 NE 11 18 4901 4900 0 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 48 48 NE 9 14 4627 4900 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 44 44 NE 5 10 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 NE 4 8 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 NE 4 8 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 NE 5 8 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 38 38 NE 6 9 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 NE 6 9 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 37 37 NE 6 9 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 36 36 ENE 6 9 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 36 36 NE 8 10 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 35 35 NE 9 11 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 35 35 NE 9 12 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 34 34 ENE 8 11 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 34 34 E 6 10 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 E 5 9 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 40 SE 4 8 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 47 S 4 6 4535 4900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 52 54 SW 4 6 5294 4900 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 55 58 SW 4 6 6080 5644 744 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 57 60 SW 4 6 6449 5930 1030 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 57 59 SW 4 8 6223 5787 887 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 57 58 SW 4 9 6080 5644 744 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 57 57 SW 5 10 5937 5290 390 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 55 55 SW 5 11 5651 4991 91 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 53 53 S 6 11 5148 4900 0 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 50 50 E 6 11 4810 4900 0 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 47 47 ENE 8 11 4535 4900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 46 46 ENE 8 11 4443 4900 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 45 45 E 9 11 4349 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 E 9 12 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 E 10 13 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 E 10 14 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 E 11 16 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 E 12 17 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 ESE 12 18 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 ESE 13 19 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 ESE 14 20 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 ESE 16 23 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 ESE 17 24 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 ESE 17 25 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 48 SE 17 26 4627 4900 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 51 52 SSE 16 27 4993 4900 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 53 54 SSE 16 27 5294 4900 0 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 54 55 S 14 27 5651 4991 91 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 54 55 S 14 27 5651 4991 91 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 54 54 S 14 27 5294 4900 0 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 52 52 S 13 26 4993 4900 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 51 51 S 13 26 4901 4900 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 50 50 S 13 26 4810 4900 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 48 48 S 14 25 4627 4900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 47 47 SSE 16 25 4535 4900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 46 46 SSE 16 25 4443 4900 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 45 45 SSE 17 25 4349 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 SE 17 25 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 SE 17 25 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 SE 17 24 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 SE 17 24 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 SE 16 24 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 SE 16 23 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 SE 14 23 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 SE 14 23 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 SE 13 21 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 SE 13 21 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 SSE 13 21 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 42 SSE 12 21 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 45 S 12 21 4349 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 45 46 S 12 21 4443 4900 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 45 46 SSW 11 20 4443 4900 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 45 46 SSW 11 20 4443 4900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 46 46 SSW 11 19 4443 4900 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 46 46 SW 10 19 4443 4900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 46 46 SW 10 18 4443 4900 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 44 44 W 10 17 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 NNW 10 17 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 40 40 N 10 16 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 N 10 16 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 NNE 10 14 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 NNE 10 14 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 NNE 10 14 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 NNE 10 14 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 NNE 10 14 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 NNE 10 14 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 NE 11 16 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 NE 11 16 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 NE 11 17 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 NE 12 18 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 NE 12 18 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 37 ENE 12 18 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 41 41 E 11 17 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 45 E 10 17 4349 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 46 47 ESE 10 17 4535 4900 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 47 48 SSE 9 16 4627 4900 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 48 49 S 9 16 4718 4900 0 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 48 48 SSW 9 16 4627 4900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 47 47 WSW 8 14 4535 4900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 46 46 W 8 14 4443 4900 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 44 44 WNW 9 14 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 N 9 16 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 40 40 N 10 16 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 39 39 N 10 16 4290 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 38 38 NNE 10 14 4290 4900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]