Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1885, -112.7558, 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 79 79 SSE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 77 77 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 76 76 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 75 75 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 75 75 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 75 75 SE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 74 74 SE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 73 73 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 75 76 SSE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 77 79 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 80 84 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 82 88 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 83 89 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 86 93 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 87 92 SSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 87 91 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 87 89 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 88 89 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 86 86 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 84 84 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 82 82 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 81 81 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 80 80 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 79 79 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 79 79 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 78 78 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 77 77 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 76 76 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 75 75 SSE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 75 75 SE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 75 75 SSE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 73 73 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 76 76 SSE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 78 80 S 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 80 83 S 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 82 87 S 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 84 90 S 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 86 92 S 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 86 90 S 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 88 92 SSW 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 86 88 SSW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 86 87 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 85 85 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 83 83 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 82 82 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 81 81 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 80 80 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 79 79 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 78 78 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 77 77 SSE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 76 76 SSE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 75 75 SSE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 74 74 SSE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 74 74 SE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 74 74 SSE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 75 75 SSE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 76 76 SSE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 79 80 SSE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 81 84 S 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 84 89 S 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 86 92 S 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 87 93 S 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 88 93 S 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 88 92 S 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 87 89 SSW 13 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 86 87 SSW 12 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 85 85 SSW 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 84 84 S 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 82 82 S 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 81 81 S 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 79 79 S 12 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 78 78 SSE 13 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 77 77 SSE 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 75 75 SE 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 74 74 SE 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 73 73 SE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 73 73 ESE 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 72 72 ESE 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 72 72 ESE 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 73 73 SE 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 74 74 SE 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 77 79 SE 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 79 83 SSE 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 82 87 SSE 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 84 90 S 16 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 85 91 S 16 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 86 91 S 16 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 86 90 S 14 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 86 88 S 13 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 85 86 S 12 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 83 83 S 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 82 82 S 10 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 80 80 S 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 78 78 SSE 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 76 76 SSE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 75 75 SE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 SE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 73 73 ESE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 73 73 ESE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 72 72 ESE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 72 72 E 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 72 72 E 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 72 72 E 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 73 73 ESE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 74 74 SE 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 76 78 SE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 79 82 SSE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 82 87 S 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 84 90 S 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 86 92 S 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 87 92 S 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 87 91 S 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 86 88 S 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 84 85 S 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 83 83 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 81 81 SSE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 80 80 SE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 79 79 SE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 77 77 ESE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 76 76 ESE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 ESE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 74 74 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 74 74 E 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 73 73 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 73 73 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 73 73 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 74 74 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 75 75 E 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 77 77 E 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 80 81 ESE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 82 85 SE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 85 89 SSE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 87 92 S 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 88 93 S 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 89 93 S 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 89 92 SSW 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 89 91 SSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 88 89 SW 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 86 86 SW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 83 83 WSW 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 81 81 WSW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 80 80 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 79 79 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]