Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.7681, -110.4589, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 E 10 10 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 E 10 10 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 E 10 10 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 E 10 11 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 E 10 11 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 ESE 11 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 E 11 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 E 12 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 ESE 11 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 51 ESE 11 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 54 ESE 11 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 57 SE 10 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 59 ESE 10 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 61 SE 9 12 7034 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 60 60 SSE 9 13 6190 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 60 SE 9 12 6190 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 59 59 SE 8 10 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 54 SSE 5 9 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 50 50 ESE 6 8 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 SE 8 9 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 S 9 10 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 S 10 10 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 S 10 11 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 S 11 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 S 12 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 S 13 14 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 S 13 14 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 S 14 16 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 S 13 14 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 S 14 17 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 S 14 17 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 S 18 18 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 S 14 16 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 S 18 19 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 54 S 20 23 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 58 S 20 26 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 59 60 SSW 21 27 6190 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 60 61 SSW 21 27 7034 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 60 60 SSW 20 26 6190 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 59 SSW 18 24 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 57 57 SSW 16 21 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 54 54 SSW 13 19 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 51 51 SSW 12 17 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 48 SSW 12 16 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 SSW 12 14 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 SSW 12 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 S 12 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 S 12 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 S 12 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 S 12 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 S 12 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 S 12 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 S 12 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 S 12 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 S 11 11 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 S 10 10 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 S 10 10 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 S 11 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 49 S 12 14 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 51 53 S 13 18 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 54 56 S 14 20 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 55 57 SW 16 21 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 56 58 SW 16 21 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 54 55 WSW 14 21 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 52 52 WSW 13 20 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 49 49 WSW 12 19 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 47 47 WSW 11 17 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 44 44 W 10 16 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 42 42 W 9 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 W 8 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 W 8 11 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 W 8 11 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 WSW 8 11 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 SW 8 10 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 SSW 8 10 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 SSW 8 10 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 S 8 10 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 S 8 10 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 S 6 9 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 SSE 5 9 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 SE 5 9 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 40 ESE 6 10 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 44 NE 8 11 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 48 N 10 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 48 51 N 11 16 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 49 52 N 13 17 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 50 52 N 13 18 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 49 50 N 12 17 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 47 47 N 11 16 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 N 10 14 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 N 10 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 NNE 9 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 NNE 9 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 38 38 NE 9 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 38 38 ENE 8 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 38 38 E 8 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 E 8 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 37 37 E 8 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 36 36 E 8 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 36 36 E 8 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 36 36 E 9 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 E 9 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 E 9 12 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 E 9 13 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 37 E 10 14 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 40 E 12 18 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 43 E 16 20 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 47 E 18 24 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 48 51 E 19 25 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 53 E 20 26 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 50 52 E 20 26 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 50 51 E 20 26 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 E 19 25 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 47 E 18 25 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 E 18 25 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 ESE 18 24 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 41 41 ESE 18 24 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 40 40 ESE 18 24 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 ESE 18 23 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 ESE 18 23 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 ESE 18 23 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 39 39 E 19 24 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 E 19 24 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 E 19 24 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 E 18 24 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 E 18 24 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 E 18 24 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 E 18 24 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 38 E 18 24 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 E 19 25 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 44 E 21 27 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 E 23 28 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 50 E 23 29 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 50 52 E 23 29 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 51 52 E 23 28 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 50 50 E 21 27 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 49 49 E 20 25 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 47 47 E 19 23 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 45 E 17 20 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 E 16 19 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 42 E 13 18 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 E 12 17 5341 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 E 11 17 5341 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]