Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.37588399065184, -119.48016792184, 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 260210/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 53 33 SE 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
1 AM Tue 54 34 ESE 4 5 127 127 77 White 0
2 AM Tue 53 33 ESE 4 5 127 127 77 White 0
3 AM Tue 53 33 ESE 4 5 127 127 77 White 0
4 AM Tue 51 31 ESE 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
5 AM Tue 51 31 ESE 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
6 AM Tue 51 31 ESE 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
7 AM Tue 50 30 E 11 14 127 127 77 White 0
8 AM Tue 60 40 E 11 14 127 127 77 White 0
9 AM Tue 63 43 E 11 14 127 127 77 White 0
10 AM Tue 63 43 SE 12 17 127 127 77 White 0
11 AM Tue 63 43 SE 12 17 127 127 77 White 0
12 Noon Tue 63 43 SE 12 17 127 127 77 White 0
1 PM Tue 61 41 SE 14 19 127 127 77 White 0
2 PM Tue 61 41 SE 14 19 127 127 77 White 0
3 PM Tue 61 41 SE 14 19 127 127 77 White 0
4 PM Tue 59 39 ESE 17 23 127 127 77 White 0
5 PM Tue 57 37 ESE 17 23 127 127 77 White 0
6 PM Tue 57 37 ESE 17 23 127 127 77 White 0
7 PM Tue 59 39 SE 18 25 127 127 77 White 0
8 PM Tue 56 36 SE 18 25 127 127 77 White 0
9 PM Tue 57 37 SE 18 25 127 127 77 White 0
10 PM Tue 57 37 S 13 18 127 127 77 White 0
11 PM Tue 57 37 S 13 18 127 127 77 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 37 S 13 18 127 127 77 White 0
1 AM Wed 57 37 S 11 14 127 127 77 White 0
2 AM Wed 54 34 S 11 14 127 127 77 White 0
3 AM Wed 52 32 S 11 14 127 127 77 White 0
4 AM Wed 52 32 S 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
5 AM Wed 50 30 S 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
6 AM Wed 48 28 S 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
7 AM Wed 48 28 S 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
8 AM Wed 53 33 S 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
9 AM Wed 56 36 S 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
10 AM Wed 58 39 SW 10 12 127 127 77 White 0
11 AM Wed 58 39 SW 10 12 127 127 77 White 0
12 Noon Wed 58 39 SW 10 12 127 127 77 White 0
1 PM Wed 61 42 WSW 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
2 PM Wed 61 42 WSW 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
3 PM Wed 60 40 WSW 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
4 PM Wed 60 40 W 10 12 127 127 77 White 0
5 PM Wed 58 38 W 10 12 127 127 77 White 0
6 PM Wed 56 36 W 10 12 127 127 77 White 0
7 PM Wed 54 34 NW 4 5 127 127 77 White 0
8 PM Wed 54 34 NW 4 5 127 127 77 White 0
9 PM Wed 56 36 NW 4 5 127 127 77 White 0
10 PM Wed 53 33 NW 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
11 PM Wed 53 33 NW 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 31 NW 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
1 AM Thu 51 31 NNW 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
2 AM Thu 50 30 NNW 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
3 AM Thu 50 30 NNW 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
4 AM Thu 49 29 N 4 5 127 127 77 White 0
5 AM Thu 46 26 N 4 5 127 127 77 White 0
6 AM Thu 43 23 N 4 5 127 127 77 White 0
7 AM Thu 43 23 N 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
8 AM Thu 48 28 N 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
9 AM Thu 54 34 N 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
10 AM Thu 59 41 WSW 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
11 AM Thu 61 44 WSW 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
12 Noon Thu 61 44 WSW 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
1 PM Thu 61 44 W 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
2 PM Thu 61 43 W 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
3 PM Thu 62 43 W 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
4 PM Thu 62 42 NNW 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
5 PM Thu 60 40 NNW 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
6 PM Thu 57 37 NNW 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
7 PM Thu 55 35 N 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
8 PM Thu 53 33 N 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
9 PM Thu 53 33 N 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
10 PM Thu 52 32 N 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
11 PM Thu 51 31 N 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 30 N 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
1 AM Fri 49 29 N 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
2 AM Fri 48 28 N 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
3 AM Fri 48 28 N 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
4 AM Fri 48 28 N 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
5 AM Fri 46 26 N 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
6 AM Fri 45 25 N 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
7 AM Fri 46 26 NNW 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
8 AM Fri 51 31 NNW 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
9 AM Fri 57 38 NNW 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
10 AM Fri 62 44 W 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
11 AM Fri 65 48 W 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
12 Noon Fri 65 49 W 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
1 PM Fri 65 49 WNW 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
2 PM Fri 66 49 WNW 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
3 PM Fri 67 48 WNW 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
4 PM Fri 67 47 N 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
5 PM Fri 64 44 N 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
6 PM Fri 60 40 N 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
7 PM Fri 57 37 N 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
8 PM Fri 55 35 N 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
9 PM Fri 54 34 N 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
10 PM Fri 53 33 NNE 4 5 127 127 77 White 0
11 PM Fri 52 32 NNE 4 5 127 127 77 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 32 NNE 4 5 127 127 77 White 0
1 AM Sat 51 31 NE 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
2 AM Sat 50 30 NE 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
3 AM Sat 50 30 NE 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
4 AM Sat 48 28 NE 2 2 127 127 77 White 0
5 AM Sat 47 27 NE 2 2 127 127 77 White 0
6 AM Sat 46 26 NE 2 2 127 127 77 White 0
7 AM Sat 47 27 NE 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
8 AM Sat 51 31 NE 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
9 AM Sat 57 38 NE 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
10 AM Sat 61 42 SE 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
11 AM Sat 64 46 SE 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
12 Noon Sat 64 46 SE 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
1 PM Sat 64 46 S 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
2 PM Sat 63 45 S 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
3 PM Sat 63 44 S 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
4 PM Sat 61 41 SSW 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
5 PM Sat 59 39 SSW 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
6 PM Sat 56 36 SSW 5 6 127 127 77 White 0
7 PM Sat 54 34 S 2 2 127 127 77 White 0
8 PM Sat 53 33 S 2 2 127 127 77 White 0
9 PM Sat 52 32 S 2 2 127 127 77 White 0
10 PM Sat 52 32 E 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
11 PM Sat 51 31 E 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 31 E 3 4 127 127 77 White 0
1 AM Sun 50 30 ESE 4 5 127 127 77 White 0
2 AM Sun 50 30 ESE 4 5 127 127 77 White 0
3 AM Sun 49 29 ESE 4 5 127 127 77 White 0
4 AM Sun 48 28 ESE 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
5 AM Sun 47 27 ESE 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
6 AM Sun 46 26 ESE 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
7 AM Sun 47 27 SE 11 14 127 127 77 White 0
8 AM Sun 50 30 SE 11 14 127 127 77 White 0
9 AM Sun 53 33 SE 11 14 127 127 77 White 0
10 AM Sun 56 36 SSE 13 18 127 127 77 White 0
11 AM Sun 57 37 SSE 13 18 127 127 77 White 0
12 Noon Sun 56 36 SSE 13 18 127 127 77 White 0
1 PM Sun 55 35 S 12 17 127 127 77 White 0
2 PM Sun 54 34 S 12 17 127 127 77 White 0
3 PM Sun 54 34 S 12 17 127 127 77 White 0
4 PM Sun 54 34 SE 11 14 127 127 77 White 0
5 PM Sun 52 32 SE 11 14 127 127 77 White 0
6 PM Sun 51 31 SE 11 14 127 127 77 White 0
7 PM Sun 49 29 SE 10 12 127 127 77 White 0
8 PM Sun 49 29 SE 10 12 127 127 77 White 0
9 PM Sun 48 28 SE 10 12 127 127 77 White 0
10 PM Sun 48 28 SE 10 12 127 127 77 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]