Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.37588399065184, -119.48016792184, 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 41 21 NW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 21 NW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 23 ENE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 21 ENE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 24 ENE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 26 ENE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 26 ENE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 29 ENE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 29 ESE 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 31 ESE 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 34 ESE 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 30 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 51 32 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 37 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 59 40 WSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 59 40 WSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 39 WSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 40 W 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 37 W 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 34 W 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 32 WNW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 32 WNW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 32 WNW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 29 NNW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 29 NNW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 29 NNW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 27 NE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 27 NE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 24 NE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 24 NNE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 24 NNE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 24 NNE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 30 WNW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 39 WNW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 43 WNW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 45 SSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 48 SSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 48 SSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 65 52 SW 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
3 PM Mon 65 50 SW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 65 49 SW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 63 44 SW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 63 43 SW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 65 45 SW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 42 ENE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 40 ENE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 37 ENE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 34 ENE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 31 ENE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 34 ENE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 31 ENE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 31 ENE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 31 ENE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 31 NE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 29 NE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 26 NE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 36 SSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 42 SSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 44 SSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 49 W 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 50 W 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 67 54 W 9 11 384 328 278 White 3
2 PM Tue 70 57 W 10 12 1045 560 510 White 6
3 PM Tue 70 55 W 10 12 606 374 324 White 4
4 PM Tue 70 53 W 10 12 166 166 116 White 0
5 PM Tue 67 48 NW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 70 50 NW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 70 50 NW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 64 44 N 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 44 N 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 41 N 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 41 N 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 41 N 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 38 N 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 35 NNE 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 31 NNE 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 31 NNE 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 31 NE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 31 NE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 32 NE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 34 NE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 40 NE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 48 NE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 54 SSW 6 9 384 328 278 White 3
12 Noon Wed 72 57 SSW 6 9 1045 560 510 White 6
1 PM Wed 73 58 SSW 6 9 1262 709 659 White 7
2 PM Wed 73 58 SW 8 11 1262 709 659 White 7
3 PM Wed 73 57 SW 8 11 1045 560 510 White 6
4 PM Wed 73 56 SW 8 11 826 427 377 White 5
5 PM Wed 72 53 WSW 8 11 166 166 116 White 0
6 PM Wed 69 49 WSW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 65 45 WSW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 42 NW 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 40 NW 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 39 NW 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 38 N 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 37 N 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 36 N 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 35 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 34 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 34 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 33 NE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 33 NE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 35 NE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 37 E 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 41 E 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 46 E 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 55 SSW 6 8 606 374 324 White 4
12 Noon Thu 72 58 SSW 6 8 1262 709 659 White 7
1 PM Thu 73 59 SSW 6 8 1480 1480 1430 White 8
2 PM Thu 73 59 SSW 8 11 1480 1480 1430 White 8
3 PM Thu 73 57 SSW 8 11 1045 560 510 White 6
4 PM Thu 72 55 SSW 8 11 606 374 324 White 4
5 PM Thu 70 51 SW 8 11 127 127 77 White 0
6 PM Thu 68 48 SW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 65 45 SW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 42 W 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 40 W 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 39 W 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 38 N 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 37 N 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 36 N 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 35 NE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 34 NE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 33 NE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 32 ENE 4 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 32 ENE 4 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 33 ENE 4 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 35 SSE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 41 SSE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 46 SSE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 52 SSW 6 10 127 127 77 White 0
12 Noon Fri 68 54 SSW 6 10 384 328 278 White 3
1 PM Fri 69 55 SSW 6 10 606 374 324 White 4
2 PM Fri 69 55 SW 9 12 606 374 324 White 4
3 PM Fri 70 55 SW 9 12 606 374 324 White 4
4 PM Fri 70 53 SW 9 12 166 166 116 White 0
5 PM Fri 69 50 WSW 9 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 66 46 WSW 9 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 63 43 WSW 9 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 39 WNW 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 38 WNW 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 37 WNW 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]