Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.37588399065184, -119.48016792184, 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 58 38 SW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 58 38 SW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 57 37 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 57 37 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 56 36 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 56 36 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 56 36 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 57 37 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 60 40 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 63 43 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 64 44 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 66 47 SW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 67 48 SW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 70 51 SW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 70 51 SW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 71 52 SW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 70 50 SW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 68 48 SW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 66 46 SW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 63 43 SW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 62 42 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 62 42 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 62 42 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 61 41 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 59 39 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 59 39 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 58 38 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 58 38 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 58 38 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 57 37 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 57 37 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 58 38 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 61 41 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 64 44 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 65 45 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 66 52 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 67 55 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 69 57 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 70 58 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 70 56 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 69 54 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 67 50 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 66 47 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 64 44 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 62 42 W 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 62 42 W 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 61 41 W 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 61 41 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 60 40 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 59 39 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 58 38 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 58 38 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 57 37 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 57 37 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 58 38 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 60 40 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 62 42 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 64 44 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 66 46 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 68 54 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 69 57 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 70 58 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 70 58 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 70 56 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 69 54 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 68 51 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 67 48 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 65 45 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 65 45 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 64 44 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 64 44 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 64 44 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 63 43 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 61 41 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 60 40 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 59 39 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 59 39 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 59 39 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 60 40 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 62 42 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 64 44 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 65 45 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 67 47 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 68 54 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 69 57 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 70 58 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 70 58 WSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 70 56 WSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 69 54 WSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 68 51 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 66 47 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 65 45 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 64 44 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 63 43 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 62 42 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 61 41 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 61 41 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 60 40 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 59 39 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 58 38 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 58 38 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 58 38 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 59 39 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 61 41 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 62 42 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 64 44 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 66 46 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 68 54 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 69 57 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 70 58 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 70 58 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 70 56 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 70 55 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 69 52 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 68 49 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 67 47 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 66 46 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 65 45 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 64 44 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 63 43 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 63 43 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 62 42 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 61 41 NNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 60 40 NNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 59 39 NNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 59 39 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 60 40 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 61 41 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 63 43 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 65 45 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 67 47 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 69 55 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 70 58 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 71 59 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 71 59 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 71 57 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 71 56 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 70 53 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 68 49 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 66 46 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 65 45 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 65 45 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 65 45 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]