Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.37588399065184, -119.48016792184, 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 44 24 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 24 ENE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 24 ENE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 31 ENE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 31 N 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 31 N 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 28 N 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 28 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 28 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 39 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 47 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 69 50 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 69 50 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 73 54 W 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 71 52 W 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 67 47 W 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 63 43 SSE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 40 SSE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 40 SSE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 38 E 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 36 E 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 34 E 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 34 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 36 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 38 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 38 NE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 36 NE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 32 NE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 32 ENE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 32 ENE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 28 ENE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 26 NE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 32 NE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 45 NE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 48 SSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 49 SSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 67 49 SSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 67 49 WSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 64 45 WSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 64 44 WSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 64 44 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 55 35 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 35 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 38 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 38 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 35 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 32 E 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 32 E 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 29 E 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 29 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 29 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 29 ENE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 29 NNE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 26 NNE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 26 NNE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 26 ENE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 36 ENE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 40 ENE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 43 SW 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 44 SW 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 48 SW 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 69 51 WSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 69 50 WSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 69 49 WSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 69 49 W 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 44 W 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 41 W 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 41 NW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 41 NW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 44 NW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 46 NNE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 46 NNE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 46 NNE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 46 NNE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 49 NNE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 46 NNE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 38 NNE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 31 NNE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 27 NNE 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 28 NE 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 34 NE 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 41 NE 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 48 ESE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 51 ESE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 70 52 ESE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 69 50 SSW 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 68 49 SSW 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 67 47 SSW 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 44 WSW 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 41 WSW 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 37 WSW 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 33 N 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 32 N 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 31 N 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 31 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 31 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 30 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 30 NE 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 30 NE 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 30 NE 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 30 NE 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 29 NE 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 28 NE 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 30 NE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 35 NE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 41 NE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 48 E 9 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 71 52 E 9 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 72 53 E 9 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 72 53 SE 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 71 51 SE 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 69 49 SE 10 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 66 46 S 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 63 43 S 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 40 S 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 37 NNE 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 35 NNE 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 35 NNE 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 35 NE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 35 NE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 34 NE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 35 ENE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 35 ENE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 34 ENE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 33 NE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 32 NE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 31 NE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 32 ENE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 37 ENE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 43 ENE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 49 ESE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 52 ESE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 72 54 ESE 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 71 52 SSE 9 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 70 51 SSE 9 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 69 49 SSE 9 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 66 46 SW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 42 SW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 39 SW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 36 N 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 34 N 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 34 N 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 34 NE 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]