Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.37588399065184, -119.48016792184, 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 63 43 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 60 40 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 60 40 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 60 40 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 59 39 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 60 40 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 59 39 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 59 39 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 63 43 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 67 47 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 69 49 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 72 52 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 72 52 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 74 54 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 73 53 WSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 74 54 WSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 73 53 WSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 72 52 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 69 49 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 68 48 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 66 46 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 66 46 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 65 45 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 65 45 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 63 43 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 62 42 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 62 42 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 61 41 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 61 41 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 61 41 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 60 40 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 60 40 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 62 42 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 65 45 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 67 47 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 69 49 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 70 50 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 71 51 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 72 52 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 72 52 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 71 51 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 70 50 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 67 47 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 65 45 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 64 44 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 63 43 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 63 43 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 63 43 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 62 42 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 61 41 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 60 40 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 59 39 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 58 38 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 58 38 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 58 38 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 59 39 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 61 41 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 64 45 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 67 49 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 70 54 SSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 71 56 SSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 72 57 SSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 72 56 WNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 72 55 WNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 71 53 WNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 70 50 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 68 48 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 67 47 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 65 45 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 64 44 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 63 43 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 62 42 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 61 41 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 60 40 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 60 40 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 59 39 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 59 39 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 58 38 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 58 38 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 58 38 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 60 40 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 63 43 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 66 46 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 69 51 S 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 71 54 S 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 71 54 S 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 71 53 WNW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 70 52 WNW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 70 51 WNW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 68 48 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 67 47 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 65 45 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 63 43 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 63 43 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 63 43 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 63 43 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 63 43 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 61 41 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 60 40 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 59 39 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 58 38 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 58 38 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 58 38 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 59 39 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 60 40 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 62 42 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 65 45 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 67 50 SSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 69 53 SSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 70 54 SSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 70 53 SW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 70 53 SW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 69 50 SW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 68 48 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 66 46 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 64 44 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 62 42 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 61 41 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 61 41 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 60 40 NNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 60 40 NNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 60 40 NNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 59 39 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 59 39 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 58 38 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 57 37 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 57 37 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 58 38 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 59 39 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 62 43 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 65 47 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 68 51 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 69 53 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 70 54 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 70 54 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 70 53 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 69 50 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 68 48 WSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 66 46 WSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 65 45 WSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 63 43 NW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 62 42 NW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 61 41 NW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]