Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.37588399065184, -119.48016792184, 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 46 26 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 26 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 23 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 23 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 22 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 22 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 20 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 20 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 25 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 35 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 42 W 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 44 W 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 45 W 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 45 W 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 63 46 W 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 43 W 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 41 NW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 40 NW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 38 NW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 37 N 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 35 N 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 35 N 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 35 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 34 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 33 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 33 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 32 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 32 N 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 30 NNE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 31 NNE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 30 NNE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 30 NNE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 32 NNE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 38 NNE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 42 ESE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 44 ESE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 62 45 ESE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 62 45 W 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 63 45 W 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 44 W 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 42 W 4 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 61 41 W 4 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 38 W 4 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 36 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 35 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 34 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 33 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 32 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 32 N 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 32 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 31 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 31 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 29 NNE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 28 NNE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 27 NNE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 28 N 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 32 N 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 39 N 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 45 W 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 48 W 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 49 W 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 66 49 W 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 48 W 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 66 47 W 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 65 45 WNW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 43 WNW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 40 WNW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 37 NNW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 35 NNW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 34 NNW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 33 N 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 32 N 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 31 N 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 30 N 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 30 N 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 29 N 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 28 N 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 26 N 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 25 N 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 26 N 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 30 N 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 36 N 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 43 N 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 47 N 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 65 49 N 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 66 50 WNW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 66 49 WNW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 66 48 WNW 8 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 65 45 NW 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 42 NW 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 59 39 NW 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 36 N 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 34 N 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 33 N 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 32 N 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 31 N 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 31 N 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 30 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 29 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 29 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 28 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 27 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 27 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 29 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 33 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 40 NNE 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 47 NE 4 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 66 50 NE 4 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 51 NE 4 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 67 51 W 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 67 50 W 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 67 49 W 5 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 66 46 W 4 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 63 43 W 4 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 40 W 4 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 37 NW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 35 NW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 34 NW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 34 N 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 33 N 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 32 N 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 32 NNE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 31 NNE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 31 NNE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 30 NNE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 29 NNE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 29 NNE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 31 NE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 35 NE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 42 NE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 47 SSE 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 51 SSE 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 52 SSE 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 68 52 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 68 51 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 68 50 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 67 47 W 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 64 44 W 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 40 W 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 37 NNW 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 36 NNW 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 35 NNW 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 35 N 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]