Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.37588399065184, -119.48016792184, 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 65 45 NNE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 45 NNE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 45 ENE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 45 ENE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 45 ENE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 43 E 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 43 E 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 43 E 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 49 W 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 53 W 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 56 W 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 76 60 SW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 76 61 SW 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
1 PM Sat 78 63 SW 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
2 PM Sat 78 63 WSW 10 12 127 127 77 White 0
3 PM Sat 75 59 WSW 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 75 58 WSW 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 75 56 WSW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 73 53 WSW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 68 48 WSW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 48 W 6 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 48 W 6 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 48 W 6 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 47 N 4 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 45 N 4 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 44 N 4 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 44 N 4 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 45 N 4 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 44 N 4 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 42 N 4 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 43 N 4 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 43 N 4 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 49 N 4 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 51 N 4 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 55 N 4 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 73 57 SW 5 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 75 61 SW 5 5 127 127 77 White 0
1 PM Sun 75 61 SW 5 5 127 127 77 White 0
2 PM Sun 76 62 WSW 6 6 127 127 77 White 0
3 PM Sun 76 60 WSW 6 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 76 59 WSW 6 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 75 56 WSW 6 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 73 53 WSW 6 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 69 49 WSW 6 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 68 48 N 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 48 N 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 48 N 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 45 N 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 45 N 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 44 N 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 43 N 5 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 43 N 5 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 43 N 5 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 43 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 42 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 41 N 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 41 NW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 45 NW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 50 NW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 72 56 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 74 60 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 75 61 SW 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
2 PM Mon 75 61 W 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
3 PM Mon 75 59 W 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 74 57 W 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 73 54 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 71 51 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 70 50 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 48 NNW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 47 NNW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 46 NNW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 46 NE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 45 NE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 45 NE 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 43 E 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 42 E 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 41 E 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 40 E 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 41 E 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 42 E 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 45 ESE 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 48 ESE 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 52 ESE 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 72 56 SSE 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 73 58 SSE 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 73 58 SSE 8 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 73 58 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 72 56 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 71 53 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 69 50 SW 5 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 67 47 SW 5 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 66 46 SW 5 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 45 W 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 45 W 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 45 W 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 45 NE 1 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 44 NE 1 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 44 NE 1 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 43 E 2 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 42 E 2 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 42 E 2 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 42 ENE 2 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 42 ENE 2 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 43 ENE 2 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 44 E 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 45 E 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 47 E 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 50 S 5 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 68 52 S 5 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 69 53 S 5 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 70 54 SSW 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 70 53 SSW 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 70 52 SSW 6 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 69 50 WSW 6 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 68 48 WSW 6 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 46 WSW 6 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 45 W 4 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 44 W 4 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 44 W 4 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 44 N 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 43 N 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 42 N 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 42 NE 1 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 42 NE 1 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 43 NE 1 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 43 NNE 1 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 43 NNE 1 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 43 NNE 1 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 44 NNW 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 46 NNW 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 49 NNW 2 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 53 SSW 4 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 70 55 SSW 4 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 71 56 SSW 4 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 72 57 SW 6 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 72 56 SW 6 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 72 55 SW 6 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 71 52 WSW 9 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 70 50 WSW 9 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 68 48 WSW 9 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 47 WNW 6 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 46 WNW 6 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 45 WNW 6 11 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]