Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.344300, -116.820000, 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 WSW 3 8 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 WSW 3 9 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 WSW 3 9 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 WSW 4 9 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 WSW 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 WSW 6 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 WSW 8 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 WSW 9 16 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 W 6 13 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 51 W 4 9 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 52 NW 3 9 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 53 NW 4 9 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 55 NW 4 10 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 53 54 NW 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 55 NW 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 53 53 NW 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 51 51 WNW 4 10 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 49 49 W 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 W 6 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 48 WSW 6 13 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 WSW 8 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 WSW 10 17 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 WSW 10 18 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 WSW 11 19 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 SW 11 19 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 SW 11 19 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 SW 11 19 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 WSW 11 19 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 WSW 10 18 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 WSW 10 17 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 WSW 9 16 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 WSW 8 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 W 6 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 47 NW 4 10 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 50 N 4 9 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 53 N 4 10 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 52 54 N 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 51 53 N 6 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 51 52 NNW 6 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 50 50 NNW 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 48 48 NNW 4 10 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 46 46 NW 4 9 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 44 WNW 3 8 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 W 3 8 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 W 4 9 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 W 4 10 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 W 5 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 W 8 13 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 W 9 16 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 W 9 16 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 W 9 16 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 W 8 13 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 W 6 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 W 6 13 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 W 8 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 W 9 16 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 W 9 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 44 NW 8 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 46 NW 8 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 47 NW 9 16 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 46 48 NW 10 17 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 47 49 NW 10 18 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 47 48 NW 10 17 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 46 46 NW 9 16 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 45 45 NW 8 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 44 44 WNW 6 13 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 W 6 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 41 41 WSW 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 SW 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 SSW 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 SSW 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 SSW 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 SSW 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 SSW 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 SSW 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 SSW 5 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 SW 5 10 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 SW 5 10 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 SW 5 10 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 ESE 5 9 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 ESE 5 9 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 45 ESE 5 9 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 47 49 ENE 8 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 48 50 ENE 8 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 49 51 ENE 8 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 50 52 ENE 10 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 49 50 ENE 10 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 48 48 ENE 10 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 47 47 ENE 9 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 46 46 ENE 9 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 44 44 ENE 9 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 42 42 ESE 8 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 42 ESE 8 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 ESE 8 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 ESE 6 10 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 ESE 6 10 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 ESE 6 10 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 ESE 6 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 ESE 6 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 ESE 6 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 E 6 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 E 6 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 E 6 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 E 8 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 E 8 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 47 E 8 12 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 49 E 10 17 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 52 E 10 17 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 53 E 10 17 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 51 53 E 13 19 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 51 52 E 13 19 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 50 50 E 13 19 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 48 48 E 12 18 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 47 E 12 18 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 E 12 18 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 E 10 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 E 10 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 E 10 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 ESE 10 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 ESE 10 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 ESE 10 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 ESE 9 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 ESE 9 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 ESE 9 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 ESE 9 13 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 ESE 9 13 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 ESE 9 13 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 ESE 9 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 ESE 9 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 48 ESE 9 14 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 49 E 11 17 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 52 E 11 17 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 54 E 11 17 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 52 54 E 12 18 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 52 53 E 12 18 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 51 51 E 12 18 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 49 49 E 11 17 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 48 E 11 17 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 46 46 E 11 17 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 46 ESE 8 13 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 ESE 8 13 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 ESE 8 13 4997 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 ESE 8 11 4997 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]