Detailed Predictions for: Calabasas
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.134575, -118.687689, 1640
LZ Altitude (f): 770
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 NNE 10 13 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 8 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 8 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 8 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 NNE 5 6 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 NNE 5 6 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 NNE 5 6 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 ENE 6 8 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 ENE 6 8 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 57 ENE 6 8 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 62 SE 5 6 1190 1640 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 64 65 SE 5 6 1324 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 69 70 SE 5 6 1549 1640 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 70 71 SW 6 8 1594 1640 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 72 73 SW 6 8 1889 1640 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 72 72 SW 6 8 1741 1640 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 67 67 SW 6 8 1414 1640 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 62 SW 6 8 1190 1640 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 61 SW 6 8 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 60 SSE 2 2 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 58 SSE 2 2 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 SSE 2 2 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 ENE 4 5 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 ENE 4 5 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 ENE 4 5 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 E 5 6 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 E 5 6 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 E 5 6 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 ENE 6 8 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 ENE 6 8 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 ENE 6 8 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 ENE 8 9 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 ENE 8 9 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 ENE 8 9 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 65 E 8 9 1324 1640 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 69 E 8 9 1504 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 69 71 E 8 9 1594 1640 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 70 72 S 6 8 1741 1640 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 70 71 S 6 8 1594 1640 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 66 66 S 6 8 1369 1640 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 63 63 SW 9 11 1235 1640 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 55 55 SW 9 11 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 52 52 SW 9 11 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 WNW 5 6 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 WNW 5 6 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 WNW 5 6 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 ENE 6 8 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 ENE 6 8 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 ENE 6 8 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 NE 8 9 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 NE 8 9 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 NE 8 9 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 NE 9 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 NE 9 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 NE 9 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 NNE 19 27 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 NNE 19 27 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 NNE 19 27 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 64 NNE 23 32 1280 1640 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 68 NNE 23 32 1459 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 68 70 NNE 23 32 1549 1640 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 71 73 NNE 23 32 1889 1640 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 72 73 NNE 23 32 1889 1640 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 71 71 NNE 23 32 1594 1640 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 68 68 NNE 17 24 1459 1640 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 59 NNE 17 24 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 55 NNE 17 24 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 NNE 13 19 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 NNE 13 19 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 NNE 13 19 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 NNE 9 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 NNE 9 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 NNE 9 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 NNE 11 16 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 NNE 11 16 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 NNE 11 16 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 NNE 11 16 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 NNE 11 16 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NNE 11 16 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 NNE 9 13 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 NNE 9 13 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 56 NNE 9 13 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 64 NE 10 13 1280 1640 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 70 NE 10 13 1549 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 71 73 NE 10 13 1889 1640 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 72 74 NE 10 14 2225 1640 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 72 73 NE 10 14 1889 1640 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 71 71 NE 10 14 1594 1640 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 69 69 N 10 16 1504 1640 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 65 65 N 10 16 1324 1640 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 61 N 10 16 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 57 N 8 11 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 N 8 11 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 N 8 11 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 NNE 8 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 NNE 8 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 NNE 8 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 NNE 9 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 NNE 9 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 NNE 9 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NNE 10 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 NNE 10 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 NNE 10 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 NNE 10 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 NNE 10 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 58 NNE 10 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 65 NNE 10 16 1324 1640 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 69 70 NNE 10 16 1549 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 72 73 NNE 10 16 1889 1640 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 73 74 NNE 11 17 2225 1640 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 73 74 NNE 11 17 2225 1640 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 72 72 NNE 11 17 1741 1640 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 70 70 N 10 16 1549 1640 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 66 66 N 10 16 1369 1640 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 63 63 N 10 16 1235 1640 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 59 N 9 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 57 N 9 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 N 9 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 NNE 9 13 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 NNE 9 13 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 NNE 9 13 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 NNE 9 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 NNE 9 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 NNE 9 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 NNE 10 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 10 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 NNE 10 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 9 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 NNE 9 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 59 NNE 9 14 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 66 NNE 10 16 1369 1640 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 69 70 NNE 10 16 1549 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 72 74 NNE 10 16 2225 1640 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 73 74 NNE 10 16 2225 1640 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 73 74 NNE 10 16 2225 1640 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 72 72 NNE 10 16 1741 1640 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 70 70 N 10 14 1549 1640 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 66 66 N 10 14 1369 1640 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 62 N 10 14 1190 1640 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 59 N 8 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 N 8 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 N 8 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 NNE 8 12 1188 1640 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]