Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.4282, -120.8728, 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 SSE 13 18 436 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 S 13 17 436 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 SSW 13 18 457 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 SW 12 17 457 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 SW 10 16 436 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 SSW 9 15 436 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 NNW 3 13 436 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 WSW 8 11 436 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 WNW 5 7 436 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 NNE 4 5 436 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 49 E 3 4 436 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 53 SE 4 5 2020 700 0 White 1
12 Noon Sun 52 55 SSE 5 6 2460 874 174 White 3
1 PM Sun 53 54 S 4 5 2240 700 0 White 2
2 PM Sun 54 54 SSW 2 2 2240 700 0 White 2
3 PM Sun 55 56 WNW 3 4 2677 1944 1244 White 4
4 PM Sun 54 54 WNW 7 9 2240 700 0 White 2
5 PM Sun 53 54 NW 12 15 2240 700 0 White 2
6 PM Sun 52 52 NW 10 13 1800 700 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 WNW 10 13 608 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 NW 11 17 457 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 NW 10 17 436 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 NW 9 16 436 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 NW 9 15 436 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 NNW 8 12 436 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 NNW 8 13 436 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 NNW 6 11 436 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 N 5 10 436 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 NNE 5 9 436 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 5 9 436 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 N 5 9 436 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 NNE 5 9 436 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 N 5 6 457 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 54 N 4 5 2240 700 0 White 2
10 AM Mon 54 56 N 5 6 2677 1944 1244 White 4
11 AM Mon 56 60 N 5 5 3534 3534 2834 White 8
12 Noon Mon 57 62 NNW 5 5 3961 3961 3261 White 10
1 PM Mon 58 63 NNW 5 5 4174 4174 3474 White 11
2 PM Mon 58 60 NW 6 8 3534 3534 2834 White 8
3 PM Mon 58 60 NW 10 11 3534 3534 2834 White 8
4 PM Mon 57 60 NW 11 13 3534 3534 2834 White 8
5 PM Mon 57 59 NW 12 15 3320 3320 2620 White 7
6 PM Mon 55 55 NW 12 15 2460 874 174 White 3
7 PM Mon 53 53 NW 11 17 2020 700 0 White 1
8 PM Mon 52 52 NW 10 19 1800 700 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 NNW 9 17 608 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 NNW 8 16 457 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 NNW 8 15 457 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 N 6 13 457 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 N 6 13 457 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 N 7 15 436 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 N 6 13 436 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 N 6 13 436 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 NNE 6 14 436 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 NNE 6 13 436 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 NNE 7 14 457 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 NNE 7 11 2240 700 0 White 2
9 AM Tue 57 59 NNE 8 11 3320 3320 2620 White 7
10 AM Tue 59 63 NNE 8 10 4174 4174 3474 White 11
11 AM Tue 61 67 N 7 9 5020 5020 4320 White 15
12 Noon Tue 62 69 NNW 8 10 5435 5435 4735 White 17
1 PM Tue 64 72 NW 8 11 6055 6055 5355 White 20
2 PM Tue 65 72 NW 8 12 6055 6055 5355 White 20
3 PM Tue 64 70 NW 8 12 5642 5642 4942 White 18
4 PM Tue 63 67 NW 11 15 5020 5020 4320 White 15
5 PM Tue 62 64 NW 11 17 4387 4387 3687 White 12
6 PM Tue 60 60 NW 9 15 3534 3534 2834 White 8
7 PM Tue 58 58 NW 8 17 3106 3106 2406 White 6
8 PM Tue 56 56 NNW 5 12 2677 1944 1244 White 4
9 PM Tue 56 56 NNW 4 10 2677 1944 1244 White 4
10 PM Tue 55 55 NNW 6 13 2460 874 174 White 3
11 PM Tue 54 54 NNW 6 14 2240 700 0 White 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]