Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.4282, -120.8728, 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 NE 17 23 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 NE 17 23 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NE 17 23 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NE 17 23 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 NNE 19 26 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 NNE 19 26 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 NNE 19 26 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 NE 24 32 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 NE 24 32 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 52 NE 24 32 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 58 NNE 21 28 415 700 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 61 63 NNE 21 28 704 700 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 65 67 NNE 21 28 975 770 70 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 68 70 NNW 13 18 1232 973 273 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 68 69 NNW 13 18 1188 905 205 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 67 67 NNW 13 18 975 770 70 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 65 65 NNW 12 17 839 700 0 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 59 59 NNW 12 17 450 700 0 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 59 59 NNW 12 17 450 700 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 59 59 N 11 14 450 700 0 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 59 59 N 11 14 450 700 0 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 58 58 N 11 14 415 700 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 55 55 N 12 17 342 700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 54 54 N 12 17 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 N 12 17 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 N 11 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 N 11 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 N 11 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 NNE 11 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 NNE 11 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 NNE 11 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 NE 13 18 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 NE 13 18 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 52 NE 13 18 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 57 NNE 14 19 391 700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 60 62 NNE 14 19 636 700 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 63 65 NNE 14 19 839 700 0 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 64 66 NW 12 17 907 702 2 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 63 64 NW 12 17 771 700 0 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 62 62 NW 12 17 636 700 0 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 61 61 WNW 11 14 568 700 0 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 56 56 WNW 11 14 366 700 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 55 55 WNW 11 14 342 700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 55 55 NNE 9 11 342 700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 55 55 NNE 9 11 342 700 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 54 54 NNE 9 11 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 NE 12 17 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 NE 12 17 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NE 12 17 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 NE 13 18 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 NE 13 18 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 NE 13 18 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 NE 13 18 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 NE 13 18 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 NE 13 18 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 NE 13 18 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 NE 13 18 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 51 NE 13 18 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 59 N 11 14 450 700 0 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 64 66 N 11 14 907 702 2 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 65 67 N 11 14 975 770 70 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 62 64 N 11 14 771 700 0 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 61 62 N 11 14 636 700 0 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 60 60 N 11 14 503 700 0 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 59 59 NNE 9 11 450 700 0 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 54 54 NNE 9 11 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 50 NNE 9 11 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 NNE 8 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 NNE 8 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 NNE 8 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 NE 5 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 NE 5 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 NE 5 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 NE 6 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 NE 6 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 NE 6 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 NE 8 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 NE 8 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 NE 8 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 ENE 8 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 ENE 8 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 56 ENE 8 10 366 700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 60 60 ENE 6 9 503 700 0 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 64 65 ENE 6 9 839 700 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 66 67 ENE 6 9 975 770 70 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 67 68 SSW 5 8 1042 838 138 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 67 67 SSW 5 8 975 770 70 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 65 65 SSW 5 8 839 700 0 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 62 62 W 5 8 636 700 0 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 60 60 W 5 8 503 700 0 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 57 57 W 5 8 391 700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 55 55 ENE 4 6 342 700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 54 54 ENE 4 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 ENE 4 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 ENE 5 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 ENE 5 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 ENE 5 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 ENE 6 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 ENE 6 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 ENE 6 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 ENE 6 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 ENE 6 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 6 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 8 11 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 ENE 8 11 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 56 ENE 8 11 366 700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 60 60 E 6 9 503 700 0 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 63 64 E 6 9 771 700 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 66 67 E 6 9 975 770 70 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 67 68 S 8 11 1042 838 138 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 67 67 S 8 11 975 770 70 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 65 65 S 8 11 839 700 0 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 63 63 SW 5 8 704 700 0 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 61 61 SW 5 8 568 700 0 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 58 58 SW 5 8 415 700 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 56 56 E 4 6 366 700 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 56 56 E 4 6 366 700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 55 55 E 4 6 342 700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 55 55 ENE 5 8 342 700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 55 55 ENE 5 8 342 700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 ENE 5 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 6 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 6 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 6 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 8 11 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 ENE 8 11 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 ENE 8 11 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 ENE 8 11 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 8 11 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 58 ENE 8 11 415 700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 62 63 E 9 12 704 700 0 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 66 67 E 9 12 975 770 70 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 67 69 E 9 12 1188 905 205 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 68 69 SSE 10 13 1188 905 205 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 67 68 SSE 10 13 1042 838 138 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 66 66 SSE 10 13 907 702 2 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 63 63 SSW 8 11 704 700 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 61 61 SSW 8 11 568 700 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 58 58 SSW 8 11 415 700 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 56 56 E 6 9 366 700 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 55 55 E 6 9 342 700 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 55 55 E 6 9 342 700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 54 54 E 5 8 0 700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]