Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.4282, -120.8728, 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 50 50 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 50 50 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 50 50 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 49 49 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 51 51 SSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 51 51 SSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 51 51 SSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 53 53 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 53 53 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 55 55 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 60 62 SW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 60 62 SW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 62 65 SW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 62 65 SW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 64 66 SW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 62 64 SW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 60 60 SW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 60 60 SW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 60 60 SW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 55 55 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 53 53 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 53 53 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 53 53 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 53 53 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 51 51 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 51 51 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 51 51 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 51 51 WSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 51 51 WSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 51 51 WSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 51 51 SW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 54 54 SW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 56 56 SW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 65 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 61 68 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 62 70 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 62 70 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 61 68 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 60 65 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 60 63 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 59 60 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 57 57 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 56 56 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 54 54 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 53 53 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 52 52 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 52 52 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 51 51 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 51 51 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 50 50 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 50 50 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 50 50 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 52 52 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 54 54 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 56 56 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 58 64 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 60 67 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 61 69 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 61 69 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 61 68 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 60 65 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 59 62 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 57 58 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 56 56 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 55 55 W 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 54 54 W 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 54 54 W 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 54 54 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 52 52 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 51 51 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 51 51 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 51 51 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 51 51 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 52 52 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 52 52 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 53 53 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 54 54 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 55 55 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 57 63 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 59 66 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 60 68 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 60 68 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 59 66 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 58 63 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 57 60 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 56 57 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 55 55 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 54 54 W 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 53 53 W 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 52 52 W 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 51 51 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 51 51 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 51 51 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 51 51 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 50 50 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 50 50 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 50 50 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 51 51 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 53 53 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 55 55 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 57 57 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 59 65 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 61 68 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 62 70 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 62 70 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 62 69 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 61 66 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 60 63 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 59 60 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 58 58 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 57 57 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 55 55 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 54 54 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 53 53 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 52 52 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 51 51 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 51 51 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 51 51 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 51 51 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 51 51 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 52 52 NNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 54 54 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 56 56 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 59 59 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 62 68 WNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 63 70 WNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 64 72 WNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 64 72 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 65 72 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 65 70 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 64 67 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 63 64 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 61 61 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 59 59 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 58 58 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 58 58 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]