Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.765278, -119.098444, 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 NE 4 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 NE 3 4 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 ENE 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 NNE 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 NNE 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 NE 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 ENE 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NNE 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 E 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 45 SSW 2 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 48 SW 3 5 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 47 48 WSW 4 5 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 48 49 W 4 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 49 50 W 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 47 47 W 5 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 47 47 WNW 4 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 45 45 NNW 3 5 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 43 43 N 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 44 44 NW 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 43 43 SSW 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 E 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 E 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 ESE 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 ENE 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 ENE 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 NNE 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 NE 3 4 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 ENE 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 ENE 4 4 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 E 4 4 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 ENE 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 NE 3 3 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 ENE 3 4 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 41 SW 3 4 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 42 43 WSW 4 5 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 43 45 WSW 4 5 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 45 47 WSW 4 5 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 46 48 WSW 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 46 47 WSW 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 45 45 WSW 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 44 44 WNW 3 5 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 43 43 WNW 3 5 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 43 43 WNW 3 5 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 ENE 4 5 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 ENE 4 5 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 ENE 4 5 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 ENE 5 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 ENE 5 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 ENE 5 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 ENE 6 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 ENE 6 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 6 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 8 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 8 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 8 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 8 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 8 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 ENE 8 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 46 SW 4 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 46 48 SW 4 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 47 49 SW 4 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 48 50 WSW 5 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 48 49 WSW 5 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 47 47 WSW 5 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 46 46 W 5 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 46 46 W 5 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 W 5 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 ENE 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 ENE 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 ENE 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 E 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 E 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 E 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 ENE 5 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 ENE 5 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 ENE 5 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 E 8 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 E 8 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 E 8 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 E 8 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 E 8 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 48 E 8 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 50 S 5 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 52 S 5 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 53 S 5 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 54 SW 5 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 52 52 SW 5 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 51 51 SW 5 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 49 49 SSE 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 48 48 SSE 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 SSE 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 SSE 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 SSE 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 SSE 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 E 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 E 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 E 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 E 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 51 S 5 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 53 S 5 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 54 S 5 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 54 55 S 5 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 53 53 S 5 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 51 51 S 5 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 50 50 NNE 5 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 50 50 NNE 5 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 50 50 NNE 5 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 NNE 5 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 NNE 5 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 NNE 5 6 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 ENE 6 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 ENE 6 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 ENE 6 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 ENE 6 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 ENE 6 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 ENE 6 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 ENE 8 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 ENE 8 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 ENE 8 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 ENE 8 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 ENE 8 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 ENE 8 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 52 S 6 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 54 S 6 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 55 S 6 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 56 S 6 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 55 56 S 6 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 53 53 S 6 10 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 52 52 N 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 51 51 N 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 50 50 N 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 N 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 N 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 N 5 8 3081 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 ENE 6 9 3081 4600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]