Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.48118611111111, -119.6850861111111, 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 NNE 2 5 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 NNE 2 6 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 NNE 3 7 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 NNE 3 7 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 NNE 3 6 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 N 3 7 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 N 2 5 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 NNE 2 6 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 NNE 2 5 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 61 NNE 1 3 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 65 SSE 1 1 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 68 SSW 2 2 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 68 70 SSW 3 3 3136 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 69 70 SW 3 4 3136 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 70 70 SW 4 5 3136 3100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 69 69 SW 5 6 2903 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 67 67 WSW 4 5 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 61 SW 3 4 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 57 N 0 1 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 NNE 3 6 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 NNE 3 7 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 NNE 3 8 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 NNE 3 7 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 NNE 3 7 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 NNE 3 6 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 N 3 6 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 N 3 6 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 NNE 4 8 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 NNE 4 8 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 NNE 4 8 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 NNE 4 9 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 NNE 4 9 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 NNE 4 8 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 NNE 3 7 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 60 E 0 0 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 63 SW 2 2 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 66 SW 3 3 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 67 SW 4 5 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 66 SW 6 7 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 63 SW 6 7 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 62 SW 4 5 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 56 SW 1 2 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 54 NE 2 4 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 NE 3 7 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 NE 4 8 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 NE 4 9 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 NE 5 10 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 NE 5 10 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NE 4 10 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 NNE 4 10 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 NE 4 9 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 NE 4 9 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 NNE 4 8 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 NNE 4 8 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 NNE 4 8 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 NNE 4 8 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 NNE 4 9 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 NNE 3 8 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 64 NW 1 1 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 67 WSW 3 4 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 68 WSW 5 6 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 69 WSW 5 6 2903 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 67 68 WSW 5 6 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 66 66 WSW 6 7 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 6 7 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 59 W 6 8 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 56 NW 5 10 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 54 NNW 4 8 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 N 4 9 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 N 4 9 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 NNE 4 9 2805 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 NNE 4 10 2805 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]