Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.418766, -117.850633, 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 N 3 3 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 N 2 2 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 NNW 1 2 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 N 2 2 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 WNW 2 2 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 NW 3 4 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 NW 3 4 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 NW 3 5 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 N 5 5 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 NE 4 4 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 50 E 2 4 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 52 SSE 4 5 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 55 56 S 4 6 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 56 56 S 5 8 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 56 56 S 5 9 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 58 58 SSW 5 8 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 56 SW 5 6 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 54 WSW 5 5 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 53 53 W 5 6 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 51 W 4 5 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 W 3 4 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 WNW 3 4 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 W 2 2 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 NW 2 2 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NNW 2 4 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 N 3 5 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 N 3 5 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 N 5 6 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 NNE 5 9 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 N 8 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 N 8 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 NNE 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 N 8 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 49 NNE 8 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 53 NE 8 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 56 NE 8 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 56 58 NE 8 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 58 60 ENE 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 58 59 ENE 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 57 57 ENE 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 56 ENE 5 8 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 54 54 ENE 5 8 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 53 53 ENE 5 8 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 N 6 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 N 6 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 N 6 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 N 8 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 N 8 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 N 8 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 N 12 18 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 N 12 18 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 N 12 18 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 N 12 18 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 N 12 18 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 N 12 18 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 N 10 13 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 N 10 13 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 48 N 10 13 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 50 NNE 10 16 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 51 53 NNE 10 16 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 53 55 NNE 10 16 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 55 57 NE 10 16 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 56 57 NE 10 16 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 56 NE 10 16 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 55 55 ENE 6 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 ENE 6 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 ENE 6 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 N 5 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 N 5 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 N 5 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 N 5 8 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 N 5 8 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 N 5 8 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 N 5 9 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 N 5 9 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 N 5 9 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 N 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 N 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 N 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 N 9 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 N 9 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 48 N 9 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 51 NNE 6 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 54 NNE 6 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 57 NNE 6 10 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 57 ENE 9 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 57 ENE 9 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 55 55 ENE 9 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 54 NE 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 52 NE 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 NE 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 49 NE 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 NE 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 NE 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 N 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 N 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 N 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 N 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 N 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 N 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 N 9 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 N 9 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 N 9 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 N 9 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 N 9 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 48 N 9 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 51 NE 10 16 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 53 NE 10 16 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 55 NE 10 16 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 55 56 NE 10 16 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 56 56 NE 10 16 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 56 56 NE 10 16 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 56 56 NE 10 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 55 NE 10 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 53 NE 10 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 51 NE 10 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 NE 10 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 NE 10 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 N 9 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 N 9 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 N 9 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 N 9 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 N 9 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 N 9 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 N 10 13 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 N 10 13 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 N 10 13 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 N 10 13 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 N 10 13 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 N 10 13 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 53 NE 10 14 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 55 NE 10 14 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 57 58 NE 10 14 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 58 59 NE 10 14 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 58 59 NE 10 14 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 58 58 NE 10 14 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 57 NE 9 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 55 NE 9 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 54 NE 9 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 52 NE 9 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 NE 9 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 NE 9 12 3081 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 N 8 11 3081 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]