Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 10 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 N 4 7 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 N 4 6 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 N 3 6 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 NNE 2 5 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 N 2 5 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 N 3 6 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 NNE 2 4 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 NNE 2 3 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 NNE 2 5 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 NNE 2 3 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 48 NNE 2 2 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 51 NE 3 3 10576 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 54 NE 3 4 12402 10547 1462 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 53 54 ENE 3 3 12402 10547 1462 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 55 56 ENE 3 4 13042 11767 2682 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 55 55 ENE 3 4 12752 11169 2084 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 53 53 NE 3 3 11817 9631 546 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 51 51 NNE 3 4 10576 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 49 NNE 3 6 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 48 N 2 5 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 N 2 5 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 NNE 1 2 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 NE 0 1 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 NE 1 2 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 NE 1 2 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 NE 0 0 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 ESE 0 1 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 N 2 5 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 N 2 4 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 NNW 1 2 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 N 0 1 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 NNE 0 0 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 NNE 1 2 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 49 NE 0 0 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 53 ENE 2 2 11817 9631 546 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 54 56 NE 3 3 13042 11767 2682 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 54 56 NE 4 4 13042 11767 2682 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 54 56 ENE 4 5 13042 11767 2682 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 55 56 ENE 4 5 13042 11767 2682 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 55 55 NE 4 6 12752 11169 2084 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 51 51 NNE 4 5 10576 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 47 47 N 4 8 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 43 43 NNW 3 7 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 41 41 N 2 6 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 42 N 2 4 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 N 2 5 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 N 2 5 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 NNW 3 6 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 NNW 3 6 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 NNW 3 6 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NNW 3 7 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 NNW 4 8 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 NNW 5 11 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 NNW 6 11 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 NNW 6 12 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 NW 7 14 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 NW 8 15 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 47 NNW 9 12 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 50 NNW 11 13 9647 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 53 N 11 12 11817 9631 546 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 53 55 9 11 12752 11169 2084 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 54 56 N 8 10 13042 11767 2682 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 54 55 N 8 9 12752 11169 2084 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 54 54 N 7 9 12402 10547 1462 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 53 53 N 7 8 11817 9631 546 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 51 51 N 6 7 10576 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 49 49 NNW 6 9 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 48 NW 8 11 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 NW 10 13 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 NW 11 14 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 NW 11 14 8950 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 NW 12 15 8950 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]