Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.4946, -119.713218, 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 N 21 29 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 N 13 18 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 N 13 18 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 N 13 18 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 N 12 16 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 N 12 16 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 N 12 16 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 N 11 14 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 N 11 14 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 53 N 11 14 2843 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 58 NNW 9 11 4636 4117 157 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 56 59 NNW 9 11 4695 4324 364 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 58 62 NNW 9 11 5574 4692 732 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 60 64 WNW 10 13 6401 5143 1183 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 58 61 WNW 10 13 5168 4633 673 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 58 59 WNW 10 13 4695 4324 364 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 57 57 NNW 14 19 4541 3960 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 54 54 NNW 14 19 3733 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 51 51 NNW 14 19 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 51 N 18 24 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 N 18 24 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 N 18 24 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 N 16 21 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 N 16 21 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 N 16 21 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 NNE 18 24 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 NNE 18 24 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 NNE 18 24 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 NNE 16 21 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 NNE 16 21 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 NNE 16 21 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 NNE 14 19 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 NNE 14 19 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 50 NNE 14 19 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 51 NE 8 9 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 54 NE 8 9 3733 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 53 56 NE 8 9 4332 3960 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 56 59 WNW 5 9 4695 4324 364 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 57 59 WNW 5 9 4695 4324 364 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 58 59 WNW 5 9 4695 4324 364 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 57 57 NNW 6 10 4541 3960 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 54 54 NNW 6 10 3733 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 NNW 6 10 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 48 NNE 10 16 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 NNE 10 16 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 NNE 10 16 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 NNE 11 17 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 NNE 11 17 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 NNE 11 17 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 10 16 2843 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 10 16 2843 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 NNE 10 16 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 NNE 10 13 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 NNE 10 13 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 NNE 10 13 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 N 9 13 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 N 9 13 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 55 N 9 13 4122 3960 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 57 59 WNW 6 10 4695 4324 364 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 59 62 WNW 6 10 5574 4692 732 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 61 64 WNW 6 10 6401 5143 1183 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 63 66 WNW 10 16 7211 5950 1990 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 63 65 WNW 10 16 6809 5544 1584 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 62 63 WNW 10 16 5986 4753 793 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 61 61 NW 13 20 5168 4633 673 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 58 58 NW 13 20 4636 4117 157 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 54 54 NW 13 20 3733 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 51 NNW 16 24 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 NNW 16 24 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 NNW 16 24 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 N 14 23 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 N 14 23 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 N 14 23 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 N 14 23 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 N 14 23 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 N 14 23 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 N 13 20 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 N 13 20 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 N 13 20 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 N 13 20 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 N 13 20 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 47 N 13 20 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 52 N 11 17 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 56 N 11 17 4332 3960 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 57 61 N 11 17 5168 4633 673 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 60 64 NW 10 16 6401 5143 1183 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 61 64 NW 10 16 6401 5143 1183 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 60 62 NW 10 16 5574 4692 732 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 58 58 NNW 11 17 4636 4117 157 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 54 54 NNW 11 17 3733 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 50 NNW 11 17 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 N 13 20 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 N 13 20 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 N 13 20 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 N 13 20 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 45 N 13 20 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 N 13 20 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 NNE 11 17 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 NNE 11 17 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 NNE 11 17 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 NNE 10 14 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 NNE 10 14 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 NNE 10 14 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NNE 9 13 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 NNE 9 13 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 56 NNE 9 13 4332 3960 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 59 62 N 5 9 5574 4692 732 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 61 65 N 5 9 6809 5544 1584 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 63 67 N 5 9 7626 6360 2400 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 63 67 WSW 6 10 7626 6360 2400 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 63 66 WSW 6 10 7211 5950 1990 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 62 64 WSW 6 10 6401 5143 1183 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 61 61 W 6 10 5168 4633 673 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 58 58 W 6 10 4636 4117 157 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 54 54 W 6 10 3733 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 51 NNW 6 10 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 NNW 6 10 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 NNW 6 10 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 NNE 8 12 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 NNE 8 12 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 NNE 8 12 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 NNE 8 12 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 NNE 8 12 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 NNE 8 12 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 6 10 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 6 10 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 NNE 6 10 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 NE 5 9 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 NE 5 9 3733 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 NE 5 9 4636 4117 157 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 61 63 S 4 6 5986 4753 793 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 63 66 S 4 6 7211 5950 1990 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 65 69 S 4 6 8466 7160 3200 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 65 69 SW 5 9 8466 7160 3200 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 64 67 SW 5 9 7626 6360 2400 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 63 65 SW 5 9 6809 5544 1584 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 5 9 4771 4532 572 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 5 9 4541 3960 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 53 53 WSW 5 9 2843 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 N 6 10 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 N 6 10 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 N 6 10 2562 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 NNE 8 12 2562 3960 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]