Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.4946, -119.713218, 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 10 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NE 3 8 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 NNE 3 6 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 NNE 3 7 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 NNE 3 7 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 NNE 3 6 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 NNE 3 6 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NNE 3 7 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 NNE 3 8 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 NNE 3 8 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 58 NE 2 5 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 64 SSE 0 1 4623 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 66 68 SSW 2 3 6104 4889 929 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 67 69 S 3 3 6512 5250 1290 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 68 70 SSW 4 4 6914 5666 1706 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 68 69 SW 4 4 6512 5250 1290 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 68 68 SW 4 5 6104 4889 929 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 64 64 SW 3 3 4623 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 60 60 WSW 2 5 3512 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 58 NW 2 6 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 57 NNW 3 7 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 N 3 7 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 N 2 6 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 NNE 3 6 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 NNE 2 5 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 NNE 2 6 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 NNE 3 7 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 NNE 3 7 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 NE 3 8 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 N 2 6 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 NNE 3 7 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 N 2 5 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 N 2 5 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 NNE 2 6 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 62 N 1 2 4071 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 66 ESE 0 0 5267 4344 384 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 69 SSW 2 3 6512 5250 1290 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 68 70 SSW 2 3 6914 5666 1706 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 69 69 SW 4 4 6512 5250 1290 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 69 70 SW 4 5 6914 5666 1706 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 69 69 SW 4 5 6512 5250 1290 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 66 66 SW 4 5 5267 4344 384 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 61 SSW 2 3 3792 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 57 N 1 3 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 NNE 3 7 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 NNE 4 8 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 NNE 3 7 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 NNE 4 8 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 NNE 3 8 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 NNE 3 7 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 NNE 3 6 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 NNE 3 7 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 NNE 4 8 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 NNE 4 8 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 NNE 4 8 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 NE 4 9 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 NNE 4 9 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 NNE 4 8 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 NNE 3 7 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 61 E 1 1 3792 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 65 SSW 3 3 4897 4070 110 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 66 SW 4 5 5267 4344 384 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 67 SW 4 5 5689 4618 658 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 65 66 SW 5 6 5267 4344 384 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 65 65 SW 5 6 4897 4070 110 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 63 63 SW 5 5 4348 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 57 SW 3 4 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 54 NE 1 2 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 NNE 3 7 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 NE 4 8 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 NE 4 9 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 NE 4 10 3294 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 NE 5 11 3294 3960 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]