Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.4946, -119.713218, 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 NE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 69 69 ESE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 68 68 ESE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 67 67 ENE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 66 66 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 66 66 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 66 66 NE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 66 66 NNE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 69 69 N 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 72 73 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 74 76 SW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 77 80 SW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 79 83 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 79 83 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 79 82 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 79 82 SW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 77 78 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 76 76 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 73 73 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 71 71 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 71 71 WNW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 70 70 NW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 69 69 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 67 67 NW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 NW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 64 64 NW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 63 63 N 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 63 63 N 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 62 62 N 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 62 62 NNE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 62 62 NNE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 62 62 NE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 65 65 NE 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 68 68 SSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 71 72 SSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 73 75 SSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 74 77 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 75 78 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 75 78 SSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 75 77 SSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 75 76 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 73 73 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 72 72 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 71 71 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 70 70 NNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 69 69 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 68 68 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 68 68 N 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 NNE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 67 67 NE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 66 66 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 66 66 NE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 66 66 ENE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 67 67 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 67 67 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 67 67 NNE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 69 69 NNW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 71 72 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 73 75 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 75 78 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 76 80 SW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 77 81 SW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 77 80 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 77 80 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 77 79 SW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 76 76 WSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 74 74 W 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 73 73 NW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 72 72 NNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 71 71 N 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 70 70 N 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 68 68 N 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]