Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.08528, -118.7783, 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 10 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 51 41 NNE 10 21 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 41 NNE 9 20 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 40 NNE 9 19 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 40 NNE 9 19 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 39 NNE 9 19 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 39 NNE 8 17 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 39 NNE 8 17 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 47 N 17 17 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 41 NNE 8 18 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 45 NNE 8 16 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 50 NNE 7 10 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 54 NE 6 8 1410 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 58 NNE 5 5 1883 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 67 59 NE 4 5 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 68 59 NNE 3 3 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 68 58 N 2 3 1883 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 65 55 N 2 4 1528 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 52 N 3 6 1174 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 60 50 N 4 9 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 59 49 N 5 10 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 47 NNE 5 11 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 47 NNE 5 11 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 46 NNE 5 11 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 46 NNE 5 11 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 46 NNE 5 11 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 46 NE 5 11 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 46 NNE 5 10 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 46 NNE 4 9 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 46 NE 5 10 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 45 NE 4 10 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 45 NE 4 10 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 45 NE 4 9 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 47 NE 4 8 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 50 NE 3 7 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 54 ENE 2 4 1410 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 64 56 E 2 3 1647 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 66 58 ESE 3 4 1883 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 68 60 SE 3 3 2119 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 68 59 S 3 4 2001 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 67 57 S 3 4 1765 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 65 55 SSW 3 4 1528 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 51 WSW 3 5 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 47 WNW 2 4 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 45 NNW 1 2 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 44 NE 1 2 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 44 NE 2 4 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 44 NE 4 9 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 44 ENE 4 9 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 43 ENE 4 10 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 43 ENE 5 11 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 42 ENE 5 11 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 41 ENE 4 10 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 41 ENE 4 10 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 40 ENE 5 11 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 40 ENE 4 9 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 39 ENE 6 12 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 41 NE 5 11 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 46 NE 4 8 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 50 NE 3 4 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 53 E 3 4 1292 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 55 ESE 4 4 1528 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 56 SE 3 4 1647 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 56 SSW 3 4 1647 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 64 54 SW 5 6 1410 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 52 WSW 6 8 1174 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 48 WSW 5 8 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 45 WNW 3 7 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 44 NW 2 5 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 43 N 2 6 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 42 N 2 6 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 41 NNE 2 6 1138 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 41 NE 3 6 1138 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]