Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.51624419593214, -119.2046327531341, 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 27 27 W 8 9 2559 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 26 26 W 8 9 2559 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 26 26 WSW 6 8 2559 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 WSW 6 8 2559 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 WSW 6 8 2824 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 SSW 6 8 2559 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 SSW 6 8 4453 4700 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 SSW 6 8 4453 4700 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 S 8 9 4903 4700 0 White 1
9 AM Sun 39 39 S 8 9 4903 4700 0 White 1
10 AM Sun 39 39 S 8 9 4903 4700 0 White 1
11 AM Sun 40 40 SSW 10 13 5125 4700 0 White 2
12 Noon Sun 37 37 SSW 10 13 4453 4700 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 40 40 SSW 10 13 5125 4700 0 White 2
2 PM Sun 44 44 SW 11 17 6004 6004 1304 White 6
3 PM Sun 44 44 SW 11 17 6004 6004 1304 White 6
4 PM Sun 44 44 SW 11 17 6004 6004 1304 White 6
5 PM Sun 44 45 SW 9 11 6224 6224 1524 White 7
6 PM Sun 44 44 SW 9 11 6004 6004 1304 White 6
7 PM Sun 43 43 SW 9 11 5786 5786 1086 White 5
8 PM Sun 41 41 NW 9 11 5345 5024 324 White 3
9 PM Sun 38 38 NW 9 11 4680 4700 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 NW 9 11 5125 4700 0 White 2
11 PM Sun 38 38 N 9 11 4680 4700 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 N 9 11 5125 4700 0 White 2
1 AM Mon 41 41 N 9 11 5345 5024 324 White 3
2 AM Mon 41 41 N 11 17 5345 5024 324 White 3
3 AM Mon 42 42 N 11 17 5565 5492 792 White 4
4 AM Mon 43 43 N 11 17 5786 5786 1086 White 5
5 AM Mon 43 43 NE 10 13 5786 5786 1086 White 5
6 AM Mon 40 40 NE 10 13 5125 4700 0 White 2
7 AM Mon 41 41 NE 10 13 5345 5024 324 White 3
8 AM Mon 47 47 N 9 11 6657 6657 1957 White 9
9 AM Mon 50 52 N 9 11 7737 7737 3037 White 14
10 AM Mon 53 57 N 9 11 8809 8809 4109 White 19
11 AM Mon 54 60 SW 6 8 9448 9448 4748 White 22
12 Noon Mon 55 62 SW 6 8 9873 9873 5173 White 24
1 PM Mon 55 62 SW 6 8 9873 9873 5173 White 24
2 PM Mon 56 62 SW 8 9 9873 9873 5173 White 24
3 PM Mon 57 62 SW 8 9 9873 9873 5173 White 24
4 PM Mon 57 60 SW 8 9 9448 9448 4748 White 22
5 PM Mon 57 58 WSW 8 9 9023 9023 4323 White 20
6 PM Mon 56 56 WSW 8 9 8595 8595 3895 White 18
7 PM Mon 52 52 WSW 8 9 7737 7737 3037 White 14
8 PM Mon 44 44 N 8 10 6004 6004 1304 White 6
9 PM Mon 44 44 N 8 10 6004 6004 1304 White 6
10 PM Mon 44 44 N 8 10 6004 6004 1304 White 6
11 PM Mon 49 49 N 8 10 7091 7091 2391 White 11
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 N 8 10 6874 6874 2174 White 10
1 AM Tue 45 45 N 8 10 6224 6224 1524 White 7
2 AM Tue 44 44 NNE 9 12 6004 6004 1304 White 6
3 AM Tue 43 43 NNE 9 12 5786 5786 1086 White 5
4 AM Tue 45 45 NNE 9 12 6224 6224 1524 White 7
5 AM Tue 45 45 NNE 11 16 6224 6224 1524 White 7
6 AM Tue 45 45 NNE 11 16 6224 6224 1524 White 7
7 AM Tue 46 46 NNE 11 16 6441 6441 1741 White 8
8 AM Tue 56 57 SSE 8 9 8809 8809 4109 White 19
9 AM Tue 60 62 SSE 8 9 9873 9873 5173 White 24
10 AM Tue 62 66 SSE 8 9 10694 10694 5994 White 28
11 AM Tue 64 70 WSW 8 9 11510 11510 6810 White 32
12 Noon Tue 64 71 WSW 8 9 11713 11713 7013 White 33
1 PM Tue 65 72 WSW 8 9 11916 11916 7216 White 34
2 PM Tue 66 73 W 10 13 12118 12118 7418 White 35
3 PM Tue 66 71 W 10 13 11713 11713 7013 White 33
4 PM Tue 66 69 W 10 13 11306 11306 6606 White 31
5 PM Tue 65 66 NNW 10 13 10694 10694 5994 White 28
6 PM Tue 64 64 NNW 10 13 10284 10284 5584 White 26
7 PM Tue 60 60 NNW 10 13 9448 9448 4748 White 22
8 PM Tue 55 55 N 11 17 8381 8381 3681 White 17
9 PM Tue 52 52 N 11 17 7737 7737 3037 White 14
10 PM Tue 52 52 N 11 17 7737 7737 3037 White 14
11 PM Tue 52 52 N 9 11 7737 7737 3037 White 14
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 N 9 11 7737 7737 3037 White 14
1 AM Wed 52 52 N 9 11 7737 7737 3037 White 14
2 AM Wed 52 52 N 11 17 7737 7737 3037 White 14
3 AM Wed 52 52 N 11 17 7737 7737 3037 White 14
4 AM Wed 52 52 N 11 17 7737 7737 3037 White 14
5 AM Wed 50 50 N 9 12 7307 7307 2607 White 12
6 AM Wed 50 50 N 9 12 7307 7307 2607 White 12
7 AM Wed 53 53 N 9 12 7952 7952 3252 White 15
8 AM Wed 57 57 N 8 11 8809 8809 4109 White 19
9 AM Wed 61 63 N 8 11 10078 10078 5378 White 25
10 AM Wed 64 67 N 8 11 10898 10898 6198 White 29
11 AM Wed 66 70 SSW 6 11 11510 11510 6810 White 32
12 Noon Wed 67 72 SSW 6 11 11916 11916 7216 White 34
1 PM Wed 68 74 SSW 6 11 12321 12321 7621 White 36
2 PM Wed 69 74 SSW 9 12 12321 12321 7621 White 36
3 PM Wed 69 73 SSW 9 12 12118 12118 7418 White 35
4 PM Wed 69 72 SSW 9 12 11916 11916 7216 White 34
5 PM Wed 67 68 SW 9 12 11102 11102 6402 White 30
6 PM Wed 65 65 SW 9 12 10489 10489 5789 White 27
7 PM Wed 61 61 SW 9 12 9661 9661 4961 White 23
8 PM Wed 58 58 NW 6 10 9023 9023 4323 White 20
9 PM Wed 56 56 NW 6 10 8595 8595 3895 White 18
10 PM Wed 55 55 NW 6 10 8381 8381 3681 White 17
11 PM Wed 54 54 N 8 11 8167 8167 3467 White 16
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 N 8 11 7952 7952 3252 White 15
1 AM Thu 52 52 N 8 11 7737 7737 3037 White 14
2 AM Thu 51 51 N 8 11 7522 7522 2822 White 13
3 AM Thu 51 51 N 8 11 7522 7522 2822 White 13
4 AM Thu 51 51 N 8 11 7522 7522 2822 White 13
5 AM Thu 51 51 N 8 11 7522 7522 2822 White 13
6 AM Thu 52 52 N 8 11 7737 7737 3037 White 14
7 AM Thu 53 53 N 8 11 7952 7952 3252 White 15
8 AM Thu 55 55 N 6 10 8381 8381 3681 White 17
9 AM Thu 59 61 N 6 10 9661 9661 4961 White 23
10 AM Thu 64 68 N 6 10 11102 11102 6402 White 30
11 AM Thu 67 72 SSW 8 11 11916 11916 7216 White 34
12 Noon Thu 69 75 SSW 8 11 12523 12523 7823 White 37
1 PM Thu 69 75 SSW 8 11 12523 12523 7823 White 37
2 PM Thu 69 75 SSW 9 12 12523 12523 7823 White 37
3 PM Thu 69 74 SSW 9 12 12321 12321 7621 White 36
4 PM Thu 68 71 SSW 9 12 11713 11713 7013 White 33
5 PM Thu 67 68 SW 9 12 11102 11102 6402 White 30
6 PM Thu 65 65 SW 9 12 10489 10489 5789 White 27
7 PM Thu 63 63 SW 9 12 10078 10078 5378 White 25
8 PM Thu 60 60 W 5 9 9448 9448 4748 White 22
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 5 9 9023 9023 4323 White 20
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 5 9 8595 8595 3895 White 18
11 PM Thu 55 55 NNW 5 9 8381 8381 3681 White 17
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 NNW 5 9 8167 8167 3467 White 16
1 AM Fri 53 53 NNW 5 9 7952 7952 3252 White 15
2 AM Fri 51 51 N 5 9 7522 7522 2822 White 13
3 AM Fri 50 50 N 5 9 7307 7307 2607 White 12
4 AM Fri 49 49 N 5 9 7091 7091 2391 White 11
5 AM Fri 49 49 NW 5 9 7091 7091 2391 White 11
6 AM Fri 49 49 NW 5 9 7091 7091 2391 White 11
7 AM Fri 50 50 NW 5 9 7307 7307 2607 White 12
8 AM Fri 52 53 WSW 5 9 7952 7952 3252 White 15
9 AM Fri 55 57 WSW 5 9 8809 8809 4109 White 19
10 AM Fri 59 63 WSW 5 9 10078 10078 5378 White 25
11 AM Fri 62 67 SW 8 11 10898 10898 6198 White 29
12 Noon Fri 63 70 SW 8 11 11510 11510 6810 White 32
1 PM Fri 64 71 SW 8 11 11713 11713 7013 White 33
2 PM Fri 65 71 SW 10 14 11713 11713 7013 White 33
3 PM Fri 65 70 SW 10 14 11510 11510 6810 White 32
4 PM Fri 65 68 SW 10 14 11102 11102 6402 White 30
5 PM Fri 64 65 SW 9 13 10489 10489 5789 White 27
6 PM Fri 62 62 SW 9 13 9873 9873 5173 White 24
7 PM Fri 59 59 SW 9 13 9235 9235 4535 White 21
8 PM Fri 56 56 WNW 8 11 8595 8595 3895 White 18
9 PM Fri 54 54 WNW 8 11 8167 8167 3467 White 16
10 PM Fri 53 53 WNW 8 11 7952 7952 3252 White 15

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]