Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.51624419593214, -119.2046327531341, 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 N 8 9 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 NNE 5 6 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 NNE 5 6 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NNE 5 6 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 NE 6 8 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 NE 6 8 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 NE 6 8 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 E 6 8 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 63 E 6 8 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 64 E 6 8 4287 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 67 S 6 8 6403 4700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 67 68 S 6 8 6918 5307 607 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 67 69 S 6 8 7420 5844 1144 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 67 68 SSE 8 9 6918 5307 607 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 67 68 SSE 8 9 6918 5307 607 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 64 64 SSE 8 9 4287 4700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 59 59 E 5 6 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 51 51 E 5 6 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 E 5 6 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 E 2 2 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 E 2 2 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 E 2 2 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 NE 6 8 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 NE 6 8 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 NE 6 8 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 NNE 4 5 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 NNE 4 5 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 NNE 4 5 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 NNE 4 5 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 NNE 4 5 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 NNE 4 5 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 ENE 8 9 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 ENE 8 9 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 ENE 8 9 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 59 S 8 9 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 60 S 8 9 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 62 S 8 9 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 60 62 S 8 9 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 60 61 S 8 9 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 59 S 8 9 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 54 54 SSE 5 6 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 42 42 SSE 5 6 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 42 42 SSE 5 6 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 NE 9 11 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 NE 9 11 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 NE 9 11 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 NE 11 16 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 NE 11 16 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 NE 11 16 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 NE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 NE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 NE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 NE 11 16 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 NE 11 16 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 NE 11 16 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 NE 13 19 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 NE 13 19 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 56 NE 13 19 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 61 ENE 12 18 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 63 ENE 12 18 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 64 ENE 12 18 4287 4700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 63 ENE 11 17 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 62 ENE 11 17 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 59 59 ENE 11 17 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 55 55 NE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 44 44 NE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 NE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 NE 9 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 NE 9 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 NE 9 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 NNE 12 17 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 NNE 12 17 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 NNE 12 17 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 NNE 11 16 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 NNE 11 16 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 NNE 11 16 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 52 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 58 E 9 13 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 61 E 9 13 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 64 E 9 13 4287 4700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 63 SSE 9 13 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 62 SSE 9 13 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 60 60 SSE 9 13 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 56 S 8 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 50 50 S 8 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 44 44 S 8 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 NNE 6 10 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 38 38 NNE 6 10 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 37 NNE 6 10 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 38 38 NNE 9 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 38 38 NNE 9 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 NNE 9 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 NNE 9 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 NNE 9 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 NNE 9 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 NNE 9 13 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 35 35 NNE 9 13 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 NNE 9 13 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 34 34 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 56 ENE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 61 ENE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 63 ENE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 64 ESE 11 16 4287 4700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 63 ESE 11 16 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 62 ESE 11 16 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 59 59 E 9 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 54 E 9 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 49 49 E 9 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 NNE 9 13 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 NNE 9 13 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 NNE 9 13 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 NE 11 16 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 NE 11 16 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 NE 11 16 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 NE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 NE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 NE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 57 E 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 61 E 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 64 E 10 14 4287 4700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 63 64 ESE 10 14 4287 4700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 63 64 ESE 10 14 4287 4700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 61 ESE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 58 58 SE 8 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 53 53 SE 8 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 48 SE 8 12 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 NNE 8 11 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 NNE 8 11 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 NNE 8 11 3081 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 NNE 10 14 3081 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]