Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.63616582095678, -119.3070454653368, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 NNE 9 11 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 N 8 9 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 N 8 9 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 N 8 9 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 N 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 N 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 N 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 NNW 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 NNW 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 54 NNW 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 57 N 11 17 6539 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 58 N 11 17 7068 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 59 N 11 17 7583 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 57 58 NNW 11 17 7068 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 56 57 NNW 11 17 6539 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 54 54 NNW 11 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 53 53 N 10 13 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 51 51 N 10 13 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 N 10 13 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 48 NNW 5 6 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 NNW 5 6 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 NNW 5 6 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 WNW 6 8 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 WNW 6 8 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 WNW 6 8 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 N 6 8 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 N 6 8 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 N 6 8 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 N 8 9 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 N 8 9 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 N 8 9 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 NE 9 11 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 NE 9 11 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 49 NE 9 11 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 51 W 8 9 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 52 W 8 9 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 52 W 8 9 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 50 52 NNW 9 11 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 49 50 NNW 9 11 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 48 48 NNW 9 11 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 46 46 N 9 11 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 41 41 N 9 11 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 38 38 N 9 11 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 40 40 NE 10 13 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 NE 10 13 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 NE 10 13 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 13 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 ENE 13 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 49 ENE 13 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 51 ENE 13 21 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 51 53 ENE 13 21 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 51 53 ENE 13 21 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 52 54 ENE 13 21 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 51 52 ENE 13 21 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 51 51 ENE 13 21 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 49 49 ENE 12 18 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 43 43 ENE 12 18 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 39 39 ENE 12 18 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 ENE 11 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 ENE 11 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 ENE 11 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 E 9 13 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 E 9 13 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 E 9 13 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 E 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 E 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 E 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 ENE 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 ENE 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 ENE 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 ENE 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 ENE 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 48 ENE 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 51 SSE 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 53 SSE 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 53 55 SSE 10 14 5434 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 54 S 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 52 53 S 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 50 50 S 10 14 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 48 48 S 9 13 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 46 46 S 9 13 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 44 44 S 9 13 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 E 9 13 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 42 E 9 13 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 E 9 13 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 ENE 10 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 ENE 10 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 ENE 10 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 ENE 11 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 ENE 11 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 ENE 11 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 51 E 12 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 53 E 12 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 54 E 12 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 54 SE 12 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 52 52 SE 12 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 49 49 SE 12 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 46 46 E 11 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 43 E 11 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 E 11 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 ENE 12 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 ENE 12 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 ENE 12 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 ENE 13 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 ENE 13 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 ENE 13 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 ENE 12 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 12 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 12 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 ENE 12 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 ENE 12 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 ENE 12 19 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 ENE 12 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 12 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 ENE 12 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 50 ESE 12 18 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 53 ESE 12 18 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 56 ESE 12 18 5995 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 54 55 SE 12 18 5434 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 53 54 SE 12 18 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 51 51 SE 12 18 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 49 49 SE 11 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 47 47 SE 11 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 45 SE 11 17 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 44 44 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 ENE 11 16 4997 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]