Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.63616582095678, -119.3070454653368, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 78 78 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 76 76 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 75 75 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 74 74 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 74 74 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 74 74 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 73 73 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 74 74 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 76 76 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 78 79 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 79 81 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 80 84 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 80 85 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 81 87 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 82 87 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 82 86 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 81 84 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 80 82 S 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 79 80 S 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 77 77 S 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 75 75 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 74 74 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 73 73 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 72 72 NE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 NE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 71 71 NE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 70 70 NE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 69 69 NE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 70 70 NE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 70 70 NE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 70 70 NE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 72 72 NE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 75 76 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 76 79 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 77 81 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 78 84 SSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 79 87 SSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 80 88 SSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 80 88 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 80 86 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 80 85 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 79 82 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 78 79 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 76 76 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 74 74 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 72 72 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 71 71 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 70 70 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 69 69 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 69 69 NNE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 69 69 NNE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 68 68 NNE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 68 68 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 69 69 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 71 71 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 73 74 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 74 77 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 76 80 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 77 83 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 79 87 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 80 88 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 80 88 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 80 86 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 78 83 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 77 80 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 75 76 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 73 73 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 71 71 WNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 69 69 WNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 68 68 WNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 66 66 NW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 NW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 66 66 NW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 65 65 NNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 65 65 NNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 65 65 NNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 65 65 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 66 66 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 68 68 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 70 71 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 72 75 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 74 78 NW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 76 82 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 77 85 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 78 86 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 78 86 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 78 84 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 77 82 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 76 79 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 74 75 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 72 72 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 70 70 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 68 68 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 66 66 NW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 NW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 66 66 NW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 65 65 NNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 65 65 NNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 64 64 NNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 64 64 N 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 66 66 N 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 68 68 N 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 70 71 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 72 75 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 74 78 N 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 75 81 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 76 84 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 77 85 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 78 86 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 78 84 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 77 82 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 76 79 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 74 75 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 72 72 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 70 70 N 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 68 68 N 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 66 66 N 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 64 64 NNE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 NNE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 64 64 NNE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 64 64 NNE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 64 64 NNE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 64 64 NNE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 64 64 NNE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 65 65 NNE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 67 67 NNE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 69 70 NNE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 71 74 NNE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 74 78 NNE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 76 82 WSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 77 85 WSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 78 86 WSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 79 87 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 79 85 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 78 83 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 77 80 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 75 76 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 70 70 NNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 69 69 NNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 67 67 NNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]