Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.63616582095678, -119.3070454653368, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 SW 13 20 6122 7000 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 28 28 SW 13 20 5374 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 27 27 SSW 12 19 5374 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 30 30 SSW 12 19 6122 7000 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 31 31 SSW 12 19 6347 7000 0 White 1
5 AM Sun 31 31 S 14 23 6347 7000 0 White 1
6 AM Sun 31 31 S 14 23 6347 7000 0 White 1
7 AM Sun 31 31 S 14 23 6347 7000 0 White 1
8 AM Sun 32 32 S 16 24 6571 7000 0 White 2
9 AM Sun 33 33 S 16 24 6796 7000 0 White 3
10 AM Sun 33 33 S 16 24 6796 7000 0 White 3
11 AM Sun 33 33 SSW 12 19 6796 7000 0 White 3
12 Noon Sun 33 33 SSW 12 19 6796 7000 0 White 3
1 PM Sun 33 33 SSW 12 19 6796 7000 0 White 3
2 PM Sun 34 34 WSW 12 19 7019 7000 0 White 4
3 PM Sun 34 34 WSW 12 19 7019 7000 0 White 4
4 PM Sun 34 34 WSW 12 19 7019 7000 0 White 4
5 PM Sun 34 35 WNW 12 19 7242 7000 0 White 5
6 PM Sun 34 34 WNW 12 19 7019 7000 0 White 4
7 PM Sun 34 34 WNW 12 19 7019 7000 0 White 4
8 PM Sun 33 33 NNW 17 26 6796 7000 0 White 3
9 PM Sun 33 33 NNW 17 26 6796 7000 0 White 3
10 PM Sun 33 33 NNW 17 26 6796 7000 0 White 3
11 PM Sun 33 33 NNW 17 26 6796 7000 0 White 3
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 NNW 17 26 6796 7000 0 White 3
1 AM Mon 33 33 NNW 17 26 6796 7000 0 White 3
2 AM Mon 33 33 NNW 19 29 6796 7000 0 White 3
3 AM Mon 33 33 NNW 19 29 6796 7000 0 White 3
4 AM Mon 32 32 NNW 19 29 6571 7000 0 White 2
5 AM Mon 32 32 N 21 33 6571 7000 0 White 2
6 AM Mon 33 33 N 21 33 6796 7000 0 White 3
7 AM Mon 33 33 N 21 33 6796 7000 0 White 3
8 AM Mon 32 32 N 23 34 6571 7000 0 White 2
9 AM Mon 32 33 N 23 34 6796 7000 0 White 3
10 AM Mon 35 37 N 23 34 7688 7688 688 White 7
11 AM Mon 37 42 NNW 17 26 8795 8795 1795 White 12
12 Noon Mon 41 48 NNW 17 26 10106 10106 3106 White 18
1 PM Mon 43 50 NNW 17 26 10531 10531 3531 White 20
2 PM Mon 45 51 NNW 14 23 10742 10742 3742 White 21
3 PM Mon 46 51 NNW 14 23 10742 10742 3742 White 21
4 PM Mon 46 49 NNW 14 23 10318 10318 3318 White 19
5 PM Mon 44 45 NNW 16 24 9456 9456 2456 White 15
6 PM Mon 42 42 NNW 16 24 8795 8795 1795 White 12
7 PM Mon 39 39 NNW 16 24 8132 8132 1132 White 9
8 PM Mon 35 35 N 14 23 7242 7000 0 White 5
9 PM Mon 35 35 N 14 23 7242 7000 0 White 5
10 PM Mon 35 35 N 14 23 7242 7000 0 White 5
11 PM Mon 37 37 N 14 21 7688 7688 688 White 7
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 N 14 21 8354 8354 1354 White 10
1 AM Tue 41 41 N 14 21 8574 8574 1574 White 11
2 AM Tue 39 39 N 13 21 8132 8132 1132 White 9
3 AM Tue 37 37 N 13 21 7688 7688 688 White 7
4 AM Tue 38 38 N 13 21 7910 7910 910 White 8
5 AM Tue 39 39 N 13 19 8132 8132 1132 White 9
6 AM Tue 39 39 N 13 19 8132 8132 1132 White 9
7 AM Tue 40 40 N 13 19 8354 8354 1354 White 10
8 AM Tue 43 44 NE 10 14 9236 9236 2236 White 14
9 AM Tue 51 53 NE 10 14 11164 11164 4164 White 23
10 AM Tue 53 57 NE 10 14 12005 12005 5005 White 27
11 AM Tue 54 60 WNW 10 14 12632 12632 5632 White 30
12 Noon Tue 56 63 WNW 10 14 13245 13245 6245 White 33
1 PM Tue 57 64 WNW 10 14 13448 13448 6448 White 34
2 PM Tue 57 64 NW 11 17 13448 13448 6448 White 34
3 PM Tue 56 61 NW 11 17 12837 12837 5837 White 31
4 PM Tue 55 58 NW 11 17 12214 12214 5214 White 28
5 PM Tue 54 55 NNW 13 20 11585 11585 4585 White 25
6 PM Tue 52 52 NNW 13 20 10953 10953 3953 White 22
7 PM Tue 49 49 NNW 13 20 10318 10318 3318 White 19
8 PM Tue 44 44 N 13 20 9236 9236 2236 White 14
9 PM Tue 43 43 N 13 20 9016 9016 2016 White 13
10 PM Tue 43 43 N 13 20 9016 9016 2016 White 13
11 PM Tue 43 43 N 11 17 9016 9016 2016 White 13
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 N 11 17 9016 9016 2016 White 13
1 AM Wed 43 43 N 11 17 9016 9016 2016 White 13
2 AM Wed 44 44 N 12 19 9236 9236 2236 White 14
3 AM Wed 43 43 N 12 19 9016 9016 2016 White 13
4 AM Wed 43 43 N 12 19 9016 9016 2016 White 13
5 AM Wed 43 43 N 10 16 9016 9016 2016 White 13
6 AM Wed 44 44 N 10 16 9236 9236 2236 White 14
7 AM Wed 46 46 N 10 16 9675 9675 2675 White 16
8 AM Wed 49 49 N 10 14 10318 10318 3318 White 19
9 AM Wed 52 53 N 10 14 11164 11164 4164 White 23
10 AM Wed 55 58 N 10 14 12214 12214 5214 White 28
11 AM Wed 57 61 W 10 16 12837 12837 5837 White 31
12 Noon Wed 59 64 W 10 16 13448 13448 6448 White 34
1 PM Wed 60 65 W 10 16 13652 13652 6652 White 35
2 PM Wed 61 66 W 10 16 13855 13855 6855 White 36
3 PM Wed 61 65 W 10 16 13652 13652 6652 White 35
4 PM Wed 60 63 W 10 16 13245 13245 6245 White 33
5 PM Wed 58 59 WNW 11 17 12423 12423 5423 White 29
6 PM Wed 55 55 WNW 11 17 11585 11585 4585 White 25
7 PM Wed 52 52 WNW 11 17 10953 10953 3953 White 22
8 PM Wed 49 49 NW 11 17 10318 10318 3318 White 19
9 PM Wed 48 48 NW 11 17 10106 10106 3106 White 18
10 PM Wed 47 47 NW 11 17 9894 9894 2894 White 17
11 PM Wed 47 47 NNW 11 17 9894 9894 2894 White 17
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 NNW 11 17 9675 9675 2675 White 16
1 AM Thu 46 46 NNW 11 17 9675 9675 2675 White 16
2 AM Thu 45 45 NNW 11 16 9456 9456 2456 White 15
3 AM Thu 45 45 NNW 11 16 9456 9456 2456 White 15
4 AM Thu 45 45 NNW 11 16 9456 9456 2456 White 15
5 AM Thu 45 45 N 10 14 9456 9456 2456 White 15
6 AM Thu 47 47 N 10 14 9894 9894 2894 White 17
7 AM Thu 49 49 N 10 14 10318 10318 3318 White 19
8 AM Thu 51 51 NNW 10 14 10742 10742 3742 White 21
9 AM Thu 54 56 NNW 10 14 11795 11795 4795 White 26
10 AM Thu 57 61 NNW 10 14 12837 12837 5837 White 31
11 AM Thu 59 64 WSW 10 14 13448 13448 6448 White 34
12 Noon Thu 61 67 WSW 10 14 14058 14058 7058 White 37
1 PM Thu 62 69 WSW 10 14 14462 14462 7462 White 39
2 PM Thu 62 68 WSW 11 16 14260 14260 7260 White 38
3 PM Thu 62 67 WSW 11 16 14058 14058 7058 White 37
4 PM Thu 61 64 WSW 11 16 13448 13448 6448 White 34
5 PM Thu 59 60 W 12 17 12632 12632 5632 White 30
6 PM Thu 56 56 W 12 17 11795 11795 4795 White 26
7 PM Thu 53 53 W 12 17 11164 11164 4164 White 23
8 PM Thu 50 50 W 11 17 10531 10531 3531 White 20
9 PM Thu 48 48 W 11 17 10106 10106 3106 White 18
10 PM Thu 47 47 W 11 17 9894 9894 2894 White 17
11 PM Thu 46 46 WNW 10 16 9675 9675 2675 White 16
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 WNW 10 16 9456 9456 2456 White 15
1 AM Fri 45 45 WNW 10 16 9456 9456 2456 White 15
2 AM Fri 44 44 WNW 10 14 9236 9236 2236 White 14
3 AM Fri 44 44 WNW 10 14 9236 9236 2236 White 14
4 AM Fri 43 43 WNW 10 14 9016 9016 2016 White 13
5 AM Fri 43 43 WNW 9 14 9016 9016 2016 White 13
6 AM Fri 44 44 WNW 9 14 9236 9236 2236 White 14
7 AM Fri 45 45 WNW 9 14 9456 9456 2456 White 15
8 AM Fri 47 48 W 9 14 10106 10106 3106 White 18
9 AM Fri 49 51 W 9 14 10742 10742 3742 White 21
10 AM Fri 52 56 W 9 14 11795 11795 4795 White 26
11 AM Fri 54 60 W 11 17 12632 12632 5632 White 30
12 Noon Fri 56 63 W 11 17 13245 13245 6245 White 33
1 PM Fri 57 64 W 11 17 13448 13448 6448 White 34
2 PM Fri 58 65 W 12 17 13652 13652 6652 White 35
3 PM Fri 58 63 W 12 17 13245 13245 6245 White 33
4 PM Fri 57 60 W 12 17 12632 12632 5632 White 30
5 PM Fri 56 57 WNW 13 19 12005 12005 5005 White 27
6 PM Fri 54 54 WNW 13 19 11375 11375 4375 White 24
7 PM Fri 52 52 WNW 13 19 10953 10953 3953 White 22
8 PM Fri 51 51 NW 12 18 10742 10742 3742 White 21
9 PM Fri 49 49 NW 12 18 10318 10318 3318 White 19
10 PM Fri 48 48 NW 12 18 10106 10106 3106 White 18

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]