Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.63616582095678, -119.3070454653368, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 N 17 26 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 N 16 24 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 N 16 24 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 N 16 24 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 N 14 21 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 N 14 21 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 N 14 21 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 N 14 23 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 N 14 23 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 47 N 14 23 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 49 NNW 13 20 6596 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 53 NNW 13 20 8328 7008 8 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 50 54 NNW 13 20 8763 7430 430 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 50 53 NW 13 20 8328 7008 8 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 50 53 NW 13 20 8328 7008 8 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 47 48 NW 13 20 6165 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 46 46 NNW 18 27 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 43 43 NNW 18 27 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 39 39 NNW 18 27 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 37 37 N 23 34 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 N 23 34 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 36 36 N 23 34 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 N 23 35 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 36 36 N 23 35 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 N 23 35 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 N 26 40 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 34 34 N 26 40 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 34 N 26 40 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 33 33 N 25 40 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 N 25 40 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 N 25 40 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 N 24 36 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 N 24 36 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 42 N 24 36 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 42 44 N 14 23 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 45 48 N 14 23 6165 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 47 50 N 14 23 7021 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 49 52 NNW 11 16 7885 7000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 49 51 NNW 11 16 7449 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 48 49 NNW 11 16 6596 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 46 46 NNW 13 19 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 45 45 NNW 13 19 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 43 43 NNW 13 19 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 41 41 N 13 19 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 N 13 19 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 N 13 19 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 N 16 23 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 N 16 23 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 N 16 23 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 N 16 23 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 N 16 23 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 N 16 23 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 N 13 19 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 N 13 19 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 N 13 19 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 NNW 12 17 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 NNW 12 17 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 50 NNW 12 17 7021 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 54 NW 10 16 8763 7430 430 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 53 56 NW 10 16 9490 8296 1296 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 54 57 NW 10 16 9802 8726 1726 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 54 57 NW 13 21 9802 8726 1726 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 53 55 NW 13 21 9175 7859 859 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 52 53 NW 13 21 8328 7008 8 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 51 51 NNW 17 27 7449 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 49 49 NNW 17 27 6596 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 NNW 17 27 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 44 44 NNW 20 29 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 NNW 20 29 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 NNW 20 29 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 NNW 21 32 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 NNW 21 32 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 NNW 21 32 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 N 24 33 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 N 24 33 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 N 24 33 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 N 23 33 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 N 23 33 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 N 23 33 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 N 24 34 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 N 24 34 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 42 N 24 34 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 47 NNW 21 31 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 47 51 NNW 21 31 7449 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 49 53 NNW 21 31 8328 7008 8 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 50 54 NNW 16 25 8763 7430 430 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 50 53 NNW 16 25 8328 7008 8 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 49 51 NNW 16 25 7449 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 48 48 NNW 18 28 6165 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 46 46 NNW 18 28 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 44 44 NNW 18 28 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 N 20 29 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 N 20 29 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 N 20 29 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 N 19 28 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 N 19 28 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 N 19 28 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 N 18 25 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 N 18 25 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 N 18 25 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 N 17 24 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 N 17 24 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 N 17 24 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 N 16 23 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 N 16 23 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 50 N 16 23 7021 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 55 N 12 19 9175 7859 859 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 54 58 N 12 19 10106 9144 2144 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 55 59 N 12 19 10387 9455 2455 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 55 59 NW 10 16 10387 9455 2455 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 55 58 NW 10 16 10106 9144 2144 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 54 56 NW 10 16 9490 8296 1296 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 52 52 NW 11 17 7885 7000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 50 50 NW 11 17 7021 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 48 48 NW 11 17 6165 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 NNW 11 16 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 NNW 11 16 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 NNW 11 16 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 N 12 18 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 N 12 18 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 N 12 18 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 N 12 18 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 N 12 18 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 N 12 18 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 N 12 18 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 N 12 18 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 N 12 18 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 N 10 16 5749 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 N 10 16 6165 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 52 N 10 16 7885 7000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 54 57 SW 6 11 9802 8726 1726 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 56 60 SW 6 11 10726 9764 2764 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 58 62 SW 6 11 12708 10339 3339 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 58 62 WSW 9 12 12708 10339 3339 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 57 60 WSW 9 12 10726 9764 2764 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 56 58 WSW 9 12 10106 9144 2144 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 54 54 W 10 16 8763 7430 430 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 52 52 W 10 16 7885 7000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 50 50 W 10 16 7021 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 NNW 10 16 6596 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 NNW 10 16 6165 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 NNW 10 16 6165 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 N 11 17 5749 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]