Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.076058, -118.658831, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 WNW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 50 50 WNW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 48 48 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 47 47 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 47 47 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 46 46 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 46 46 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 50 50 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 54 55 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 58 60 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 61 65 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 61 66 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 62 68 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 64 70 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 66 71 WSW 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 69 73 WSW 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 67 70 WSW 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 65 67 WSW 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 53 53 WSW 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 44 44 WNW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 44 44 WNW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 47 47 WNW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 47 47 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 49 49 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 47 47 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 44 44 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 44 44 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 42 42 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 42 42 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 46 46 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 50 51 N 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 58 60 N 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 66 69 N 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 72 77 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 72 78 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 68 74 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 68 74 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 68 72 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 69 72 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 71 72 WSW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 69 69 WSW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 64 64 WSW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 59 59 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 59 59 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 55 55 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 52 52 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 52 52 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 52 52 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 51 51 ESE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 48 48 ESE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 45 45 ESE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 45 45 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 50 51 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 57 60 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 63 68 SSW 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 67 73 SSW 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 69 75 SSW 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 70 75 SW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 70 74 SW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 70 73 SW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 69 70 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 59 59 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 50 50 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 47 47 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 46 46 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 46 46 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 46 46 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 45 45 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 44 44 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 44 44 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 45 45 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 49 50 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 53 54 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 58 61 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 61 64 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 63 66 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 63 66 WSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 63 65 WSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 63 64 WSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 62 63 WSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 54 54 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 52 52 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 50 50 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 48 48 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 46 46 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 45 45 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 44 44 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 43 43 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 43 43 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 42 42 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 42 42 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 44 45 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 48 50 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 54 58 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 64 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 62 68 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 64 70 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 64 70 WSW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 65 70 WSW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 65 68 WSW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 64 66 WSW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 61 61 WSW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 58 58 WSW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 55 55 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 52 52 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 50 50 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 48 48 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 45 45 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 44 44 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 42 42 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 42 42 NW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 42 42 NW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 42 42 NW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 44 44 WSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 49 50 WSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 54 57 WSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 59 63 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 62 66 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 64 69 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 65 69 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 66 69 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 66 68 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 66 67 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 59 59 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 55 55 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 52 52 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]