Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.076058, -118.658831, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 63 63 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 62 62 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 61 61 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 60 60 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 60 60 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 60 60 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 59 59 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 62 62 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 72 73 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 81 83 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 89 93 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 94 99 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 96 101 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 97 101 SW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 97 100 SW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 97 99 SW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 95 95 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 91 91 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 85 85 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 78 78 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 75 75 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 71 71 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 68 68 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 63 63 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 62 62 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 61 61 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 60 60 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 58 58 ENE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 58 58 ENE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 57 57 ENE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 59 59 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 66 67 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 75 77 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 80 84 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 84 89 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 86 91 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 86 90 SSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 86 89 SSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 85 87 SSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 83 83 SW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 80 80 SW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 76 76 SW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 73 73 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 69 69 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 65 65 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 62 62 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 60 60 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 60 60 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 59 59 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 57 57 NE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 56 56 NE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 56 56 NE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 58 58 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 64 65 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 72 74 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 79 83 SSE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 83 88 SSE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 85 90 SSE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 86 90 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 86 89 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 85 87 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 84 84 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 81 81 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 77 77 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 73 73 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 70 70 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 68 68 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 65 65 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 61 61 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 60 60 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 59 59 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 59 59 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 58 58 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 57 57 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 56 56 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 58 58 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 63 63 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 71 72 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 78 80 SSE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 82 85 SSE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 84 87 SSE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 85 88 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 85 87 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 84 85 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 83 83 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 80 80 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 76 76 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 73 73 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 70 70 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 67 67 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 65 65 ESE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 ESE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 62 62 ESE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 59 59 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 58 58 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 57 57 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 56 56 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 56 56 NNE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 58 58 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 64 64 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 71 72 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 77 80 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 81 85 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 83 87 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 84 87 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 85 88 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 85 86 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 83 83 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 80 80 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 76 76 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 72 72 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 69 69 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 66 66 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 64 64 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 61 61 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 60 60 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 59 59 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 58 58 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 56 56 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 55 55 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 55 55 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 58 58 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 64 65 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 71 73 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 78 81 SSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 82 86 SSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 83 87 SSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 84 88 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 84 87 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 84 85 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 83 83 WSW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 80 80 WSW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 75 75 WSW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 71 71 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 68 68 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 65 65 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]