Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.076058, -118.658831, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 N 6 8 1071 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 N 8 9 948 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 N 8 9 948 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 N 8 9 948 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 NNE 3 4 948 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 NNE 3 4 948 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 NNE 3 4 948 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 NNE 2 2 948 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 NNE 2 2 948 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 50 NNE 2 2 1450 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 59 SSE 3 4 2036 2770 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 62 66 SSE 3 4 4470 3456 686 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 65 69 SSE 3 4 4730 4451 1681 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 65 69 SW 6 8 4730 4451 1681 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 65 68 SW 6 8 4672 4248 1478 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 65 66 SW 6 8 4470 3456 686 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 64 64 W 6 8 4061 2770 0 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 63 63 W 6 8 3507 2770 0 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 61 61 W 6 8 2097 2770 0 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 58 58 N 5 6 2005 2770 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 56 56 N 5 6 1905 2770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 55 55 N 5 6 1830 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 NNE 5 6 1754 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 NNE 5 6 1678 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NNE 5 6 1602 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 NE 4 5 1450 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 NE 4 5 1450 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 NE 4 5 1450 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 NE 4 5 1450 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 NE 4 5 1374 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 NE 4 5 1374 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 NE 5 6 1374 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 NE 5 6 1450 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 NE 5 6 1905 2770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 59 61 NE 6 8 2097 2770 0 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 62 65 NE 6 8 4266 2770 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 64 67 NE 6 8 4614 4038 1268 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 65 68 WNW 6 10 4672 4248 1478 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 66 68 WNW 6 10 4672 4248 1478 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 66 67 WNW 6 10 4614 4038 1268 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 65 65 W 8 12 4266 2770 0 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 63 63 W 8 12 3507 2770 0 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 59 59 W 8 12 2036 2770 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 56 56 NNW 5 9 1905 2770 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 53 53 NNW 5 9 1678 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 NNW 5 9 1526 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 N 5 9 1374 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 N 5 9 1298 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 N 5 9 1222 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 N 3 5 1147 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 N 3 5 1071 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 N 3 5 1071 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 N 3 5 995 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 N 3 5 948 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 N 3 5 948 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 N 3 5 948 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 N 3 5 1222 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 54 N 3 5 1754 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 61 S 2 3 2097 2770 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 63 66 S 2 3 4470 3456 686 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 65 68 S 2 3 4672 4248 1478 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 66 69 SW 5 9 4730 4451 1681 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 67 69 SW 5 9 4730 4451 1681 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 67 68 SW 5 9 4672 4248 1478 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 65 65 WSW 5 9 4266 2770 0 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 62 62 WSW 5 9 2634 2770 0 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 58 58 WSW 5 9 2005 2770 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 55 55 NNW 4 6 1830 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 NNW 4 6 1602 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 NNW 4 6 1526 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 NNE 5 9 1374 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 NNE 5 9 1298 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 NNE 5 9 1147 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 N 5 9 1071 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 N 5 9 995 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 N 5 9 948 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 N 6 10 948 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 N 6 10 948 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 N 6 10 948 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 N 9 13 948 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 N 9 13 1222 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 53 N 9 13 1678 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 61 N 10 16 2097 2770 0 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 62 66 N 10 16 4470 3456 686 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 65 69 N 10 16 4730 4451 1681 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 68 72 NNW 10 16 5785 4724 1954 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 69 72 NNW 10 16 5785 4724 1954 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 69 71 NNW 10 16 5391 4666 1896 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 68 68 NNW 9 13 4672 4248 1478 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 65 65 NNW 9 13 4266 2770 0 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 61 61 NNW 9 13 2097 2770 0 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 57 57 N 10 16 1975 2770 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 55 55 N 10 16 1830 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 N 10 16 1678 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 NNE 10 16 1526 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 NNE 10 16 1450 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 NNE 10 16 1298 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 NNE 9 13 1222 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 NNE 9 13 1147 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 NNE 9 13 1071 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NNE 9 13 995 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 NNE 9 13 948 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 NNE 9 13 948 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 NE 9 13 1071 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 NE 9 13 1374 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 55 NE 9 13 1830 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 62 NE 8 12 2634 2770 0 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 64 68 NE 8 12 4672 4248 1478 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 67 71 NE 8 12 5391 4666 1896 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 69 73 NNE 8 12 6191 4953 2183 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 70 73 NNE 8 12 6191 4953 2183 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 71 73 NNE 8 12 6191 4953 2183 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 70 70 NW 6 10 4997 4609 1839 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 67 67 NW 6 10 4614 4038 1268 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 62 62 NW 6 10 2634 2770 0 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 58 58 NNW 6 10 2005 2770 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 55 55 NNW 6 10 1830 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 NNW 6 10 1678 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 N 6 10 1526 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 N 6 10 1374 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 N 6 10 1298 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 NNE 5 9 1222 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 NNE 5 9 1147 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 NNE 5 9 1071 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 NNE 5 9 1071 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 NNE 5 9 948 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 NNE 5 9 948 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 NE 5 9 1071 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NE 5 9 1450 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 NE 5 9 1975 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 62 65 NE 5 9 4266 2770 0 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 67 71 NE 5 9 5391 4666 1896 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 70 74 NE 5 9 6591 5342 2572 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 71 75 NW 5 9 6984 5730 2960 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 72 75 NW 5 9 6984 5730 2960 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 72 73 NW 5 9 6191 4953 2183 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 70 70 W 6 10 4997 4609 1839 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 67 67 W 6 10 4614 4038 1268 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 63 63 W 6 10 3507 2770 0 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 59 59 NW 5 9 2036 2770 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 56 56 NW 5 9 1905 2770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 54 54 NW 5 9 1754 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 N 5 9 1678 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]