Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.076058, -118.658831, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NNE 9 11 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 NNE 9 11 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 NNE 9 11 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 NNE 9 11 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 NNE 9 11 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 NNE 9 11 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 NNE 9 11 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 ENE 8 9 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 ENE 8 9 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 57 ENE 8 9 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 62 SSW 8 9 1207 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 64 65 SSW 8 9 1341 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 69 70 SSW 8 9 1566 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 71 72 SSW 6 8 1797 2770 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 71 72 SSW 6 8 1797 2770 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 70 70 SSW 6 8 1566 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 65 65 W 8 9 1341 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 61 W 8 9 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 60 W 8 9 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 S 3 4 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 S 3 4 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 S 3 4 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 ENE 5 6 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 ENE 5 6 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 ENE 5 6 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 ENE 6 8 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 ENE 6 8 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 ENE 6 8 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 ENE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 ENE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 ENE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 ENE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 ENE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 60 ENE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 64 E 9 11 1296 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 67 E 9 11 1431 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 67 69 E 9 11 1521 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 67 69 S 9 11 1521 2770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 66 S 9 11 1386 2770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 60 60 S 9 11 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 58 58 WSW 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 50 50 WSW 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 WSW 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 WNW 5 6 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 WNW 5 6 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 WNW 5 6 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 ENE 6 8 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 ENE 6 8 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 ENE 6 8 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 NE 6 8 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 NE 6 8 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 NE 6 8 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 NE 8 10 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 NE 8 10 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 NE 8 10 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 NNE 18 25 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 NNE 18 25 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 56 NNE 18 25 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 63 NNE 23 31 1252 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 67 NNE 23 31 1431 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 68 70 NNE 23 31 1566 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 69 71 NNE 23 32 1649 2770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 68 69 NNE 23 32 1521 2770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 66 66 NNE 23 32 1386 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 61 61 N 17 24 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 N 17 24 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 N 17 24 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 NNE 13 19 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 NNE 13 19 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 NNE 13 19 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 NNE 9 12 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 NNE 9 12 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 NNE 9 12 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 NNE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 NNE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 NNE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 NNE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 NNE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 NNE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 NNE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 NNE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 53 NNE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 61 NE 9 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 67 NE 9 13 1431 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 69 71 NE 9 13 1649 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 70 72 NE 10 14 1797 2770 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 71 72 NE 10 14 1797 2770 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 70 70 NE 10 14 1566 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 68 68 NW 10 14 1476 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 65 65 NW 10 14 1341 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 60 NW 10 14 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 N 8 11 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 N 8 11 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 N 8 11 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 NNE 9 12 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 NNE 9 12 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 NNE 9 12 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 NNE 10 14 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 NNE 10 14 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 NNE 10 14 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NNE 11 16 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 NNE 11 16 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 NNE 11 16 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 NNE 11 16 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 NNE 11 16 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 54 NNE 11 16 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 62 NNE 11 16 1207 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 66 67 NNE 11 16 1431 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 69 70 NNE 11 16 1566 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 71 72 NNE 11 16 1797 2770 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 71 72 NNE 11 16 1797 2770 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 70 70 NNE 11 16 1566 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 68 68 N 10 14 1476 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 64 N 10 14 1296 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 61 61 N 10 14 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 57 N 8 12 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 N 8 12 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 N 8 12 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 NNE 9 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 NNE 9 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 NNE 9 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 NNE 11 14 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 NNE 11 14 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 NNE 11 14 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 NNE 11 16 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 NNE 11 16 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 NNE 11 16 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 NNE 11 14 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 NNE 11 14 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 56 NNE 11 14 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 63 NNE 11 14 1252 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 68 NNE 11 14 1476 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 70 72 NNE 11 14 1797 2770 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 71 72 NNE 10 16 1797 2770 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 72 73 NNE 10 16 2017 2770 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 71 71 NNE 10 16 1649 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 69 69 N 9 13 1521 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 66 66 N 9 13 1386 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 61 N 9 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 N 8 12 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 N 8 12 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 N 8 12 1188 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 NNE 10 13 1188 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]