Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.076058, -118.658831, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 ESE 8 10 2179 2770 0 Blue 9
1 AM Sat 65 65 ESE 8 10 2179 2770 0 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 65 65 E 5 8 2179 2770 0 Blue 9
3 AM Sat 63 63 E 5 8 2082 2770 0 Blue 7
4 AM Sat 63 63 E 5 8 2082 2770 0 Blue 7
5 AM Sat 61 61 E 5 8 1973 2770 0 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 61 61 E 5 8 1973 2770 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 61 61 E 5 8 1973 2770 0 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 67 67 ESE 5 8 2234 2770 0 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 74 75 ESE 5 8 2455 2770 0 Blue 19
10 AM Sat 78 80 ESE 5 8 2688 2770 0 Blue 24
11 AM Sat 83 88 S 8 9 4505 3706 936 Blue 32
12 Noon Sat 81 87 S 8 9 4245 3447 677 Blue 31
1 PM Sat 83 89 S 8 9 4765 3964 1194 Blue 33
2 PM Sat 85 91 SSW 10 13 5075 4481 1711 Blue 35
3 PM Sat 83 88 SSW 10 13 4505 3706 936 Blue 32
4 PM Sat 83 86 SSW 10 13 3983 3187 417 Blue 30
5 PM Sat 80 81 WSW 10 13 2746 2770 0 Blue 25
6 PM Sat 76 76 WSW 10 13 2482 2770 0 Blue 20
7 PM Sat 73 73 WSW 10 13 2399 2770 0 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 69 69 SW 6 6 2289 2770 0 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 69 69 SW 6 6 2289 2770 0 Blue 13
10 PM Sat 68 68 SW 6 6 2261 2770 0 Blue 12
11 PM Sat 66 66 SE 5 5 2206 2770 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 SE 5 5 2137 2770 0 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 62 62 SE 5 5 2028 2770 0 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 59 59 E 5 5 1890 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 61 61 E 5 5 1973 2770 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 61 61 E 5 5 1973 2770 0 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 59 59 E 5 5 1890 2770 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 59 59 E 5 5 1890 2770 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 61 61 E 5 5 1973 2770 0 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 68 68 E 5 5 2261 2770 0 Blue 12
9 AM Sun 74 75 E 5 5 2455 2770 0 Blue 19
10 AM Sun 79 82 E 5 5 2938 2770 0 Blue 26
11 AM Sun 79 84 SSW 8 9 3463 2770 0 Blue 28
12 Noon Sun 81 87 SSW 8 9 4245 3447 677 Blue 31
1 PM Sun 81 87 SSW 8 9 4245 3447 677 Blue 31
2 PM Sun 83 89 SW 11 16 4765 3964 1194 Blue 33
3 PM Sun 83 88 SW 11 16 4505 3706 936 Blue 32
4 PM Sun 81 84 SW 11 16 3463 2770 0 Blue 28
5 PM Sun 83 84 WSW 6 6 3463 2770 0 Blue 28
6 PM Sun 82 82 WSW 6 6 2938 2770 0 Blue 26
7 PM Sun 76 76 WSW 6 6 2482 2770 0 Blue 20
8 PM Sun 75 75 ESE 4 4 2455 2770 0 Blue 19
9 PM Sun 74 74 ESE 4 4 2427 2770 0 Blue 18
10 PM Sun 74 74 ESE 4 4 2427 2770 0 Blue 18
11 PM Sun 72 72 E 5 5 2372 2770 0 Blue 16
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 E 5 5 2317 2770 0 Blue 14
1 AM Mon 69 69 E 5 5 2289 2770 0 Blue 13
2 AM Mon 67 67 E 5 5 2234 2770 0 Blue 11
3 AM Mon 66 66 E 5 5 2206 2770 0 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 65 65 E 5 5 2179 2770 0 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 65 65 E 5 8 2179 2770 0 Blue 9
6 AM Mon 62 62 E 5 8 2028 2770 0 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 59 59 E 5 8 1890 2770 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 58 58 ESE 5 8 1868 2770 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 62 63 ESE 5 8 2082 2770 0 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 69 72 ESE 5 8 2372 2770 0 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 76 81 S 6 9 2746 2770 0 Blue 25
12 Noon Mon 79 85 S 6 9 3724 2927 157 Blue 29
1 PM Mon 81 88 S 6 9 4505 3706 936 Blue 32
2 PM Mon 81 87 SW 9 12 4245 3447 677 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 81 86 SW 9 12 3983 3187 417 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 80 83 SW 9 12 3201 2770 0 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 79 80 SW 5 8 2688 2770 0 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 77 77 SW 5 8 2523 2770 0 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 74 74 SW 5 8 2427 2770 0 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 71 71 WSW 2 3 2344 2770 0 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 69 69 WSW 2 3 2289 2770 0 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 67 67 WSW 2 3 2234 2770 0 Blue 11
11 PM Mon 64 64 ESE 3 4 2137 2770 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 ESE 3 4 2028 2770 0 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 60 60 ESE 3 4 1919 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 58 58 E 5 8 1868 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 57 57 E 5 8 1845 2770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 56 56 E 5 8 1734 2770 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 ESE 6 9 1734 2770 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 ESE 6 9 1734 2770 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 ESE 6 9 1845 2770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 58 58 ESE 9 12 1868 2770 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 61 61 ESE 9 12 1973 2770 0 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 65 66 ESE 9 12 2206 2770 0 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 69 74 SE 12 18 2427 2770 0 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 72 78 SE 12 18 2572 2770 0 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 74 80 SE 12 18 2688 2770 0 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 76 82 SSW 9 12 2938 2770 0 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 76 81 SSW 9 12 2746 2770 0 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 75 78 SSW 9 12 2572 2770 0 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 73 74 SSW 5 16 2427 2770 0 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 70 70 SSW 5 16 2317 2770 0 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 68 68 SSW 5 16 2261 2770 0 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 66 66 SSW 1 4 2206 2770 0 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 65 65 SSW 1 4 2179 2770 0 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 64 64 SSW 1 4 2137 2770 0 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 63 63 SE 1 5 2082 2770 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 SE 1 5 2028 2770 0 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 61 61 SE 1 5 1973 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 60 60 E 3 8 1919 2770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 59 59 E 3 8 1890 2770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 58 58 E 3 8 1868 2770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 58 58 E 3 8 1868 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 58 58 E 3 8 1868 2770 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 58 58 E 3 8 1868 2770 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 60 60 E 4 9 1919 2770 0 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 63 64 E 4 9 2137 2770 0 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 67 69 E 4 9 2289 2770 0 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 71 75 SSE 4 10 2455 2770 0 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 74 80 SSE 4 10 2688 2770 0 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 76 82 SSE 4 10 2938 2770 0 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 77 82 S 6 17 2938 2770 0 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 77 81 S 6 17 2746 2770 0 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 77 80 S 6 17 2688 2770 0 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 75 76 SW 6 18 2482 2770 0 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 73 73 SW 6 18 2399 2770 0 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 70 70 SW 6 18 2317 2770 0 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 67 67 W 4 11 2234 2770 0 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 65 65 W 4 11 2179 2770 0 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 64 64 W 4 11 2137 2770 0 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 63 63 W 2 6 2082 2770 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 W 2 6 2028 2770 0 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 61 61 W 2 6 1973 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 60 60 NNE 1 4 1919 2770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 59 59 NNE 1 4 1890 2770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 58 58 NNE 1 4 1868 2770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 58 58 N 1 4 1868 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 58 58 N 1 4 1868 2770 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 60 60 N 1 4 1919 2770 0 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 62 62 NW 2 4 2028 2770 0 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 66 67 NW 2 4 2234 2770 0 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 71 74 NW 2 4 2427 2770 0 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 75 80 SSW 4 10 2688 2770 0 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 78 84 SSW 4 10 3463 2770 0 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 80 87 SSW 4 10 4245 3447 677 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 81 87 SW 9 20 4245 3447 677 Blue 31
3 PM Thu 81 86 SW 9 20 3983 3187 417 Blue 30
4 PM Thu 80 83 SW 9 20 3201 2770 0 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 79 80 WSW 9 20 2688 2770 0 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 77 77 WSW 9 20 2523 2770 0 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 9 20 2427 2770 0 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 6 16 2372 2770 0 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 70 70 W 6 16 2317 2770 0 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 69 69 W 6 16 2289 2770 0 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]