Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.184800, -118.727000, 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 251216/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 ENE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 ENE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 E 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 E 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 E 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 ENE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 ENE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 ENE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 NNW 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 57 WNW 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 65 WSW 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 68 W 2 4 5606 5075 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 68 69 W 2 4 5914 5075 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 70 71 W 2 5 6536 5588 513 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 70 71 W 2 5 6536 5588 513 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 69 69 W 2 5 5914 5075 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 68 68 W 2 4 5606 5075 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 63 63 SW 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 56 SE 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 55 E 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 E 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 E 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 ENE 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 E 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 E 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 E 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 ESE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 E 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 E 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 ESE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 ENE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 N 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 N 3 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 53 WNW 4 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 62 W 5 9 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 67 W 5 9 4904 5075 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 67 69 W 5 9 5914 5075 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 67 69 W 5 11 5914 5075 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 68 69 W 5 11 5914 5075 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 67 67 W 5 11 4904 5075 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 65 65 W 4 8 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 61 W 4 8 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 56 W 4 8 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 N 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 N 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 N 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 NE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 NE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 NE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 NE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 NE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 NE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 NNE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 NNE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 NNE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 NNE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 NNE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 54 NNE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 60 WNW 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 63 WNW 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 64 65 WNW 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 65 66 W 3 6 3809 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 66 67 W 3 6 4904 5075 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 65 65 W 3 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 64 WNW 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 60 WNW 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 56 WNW 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 52 NNE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 NNE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 NNE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 NNE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 NNE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NNE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 NE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 NE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 NE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 ENE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 ENE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 ENE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 NE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 56 NE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 61 W 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 65 W 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 67 W 2 4 4904 5075 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 65 66 W 4 9 3809 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 66 67 W 4 9 4904 5075 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 66 66 W 4 9 3809 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 64 W 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 60 60 W 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 55 W 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 51 NNE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 NNE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 NNE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 NE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 NE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 NE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 NE 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 NE 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 NE 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 NNE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 NNE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 NNE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 NNE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NNE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 54 NNE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 58 W 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 61 W 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 63 W 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 62 W 3 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 63 63 W 3 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 63 W 3 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 62 W 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 59 59 W 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 55 W 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 52 N 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 N 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 N 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 N 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 N 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 N 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 ENE 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 ENE 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 ENE 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 ENE 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 ENE 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 ENE 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 E 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 E 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 55 E 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 59 WSW 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 61 WSW 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 62 WSW 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 63 63 WSW 3 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 63 63 WSW 3 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 63 63 WSW 3 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 62 62 W 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 59 W 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 56 W 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 ENE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 ENE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 ENE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 E 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]