Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.184800, -118.727000, 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 50 50 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 48 48 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 48 48 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 48 48 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 46 46 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 48 48 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 49 49 E 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 50 51 WSW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 55 58 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 61 66 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 63 70 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 65 73 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 67 75 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 68 75 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 70 76 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 71 75 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 71 73 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 71 72 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 70 70 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 64 64 WNW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 57 57 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 56 56 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 55 55 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 54 54 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 53 53 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 52 52 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 52 52 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 51 51 ENE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 52 52 ENE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 53 53 ENE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 55 56 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 61 64 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 68 73 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 69 76 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 71 79 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 72 80 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 74 81 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 76 82 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 77 81 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 77 79 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 77 78 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 74 74 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 69 69 N 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 65 65 N 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 62 62 N 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 59 59 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 57 57 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 57 57 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 56 56 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 55 55 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 55 55 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 55 55 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 56 56 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 59 60 S 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 64 67 S 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 69 74 S 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 74 81 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 77 85 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 78 86 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 79 85 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 80 85 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 81 84 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 81 82 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 78 78 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 74 74 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 70 70 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 67 67 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 64 64 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 62 62 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 61 61 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 60 60 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 59 59 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 58 58 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 58 58 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 58 58 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 60 60 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 63 64 S 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 67 70 S 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 72 77 S 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 77 84 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 79 87 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 81 89 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 82 89 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 84 90 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 85 89 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 85 87 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 81 82 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 77 77 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 74 74 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 71 71 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 67 67 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 65 65 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 63 63 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 62 62 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 61 61 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 60 60 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 60 60 E 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 60 60 E 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 62 62 E 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 64 65 S 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 68 71 S 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 74 79 S 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 78 84 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 80 87 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 81 88 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 82 89 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 84 89 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 85 89 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 85 87 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 82 82 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 78 78 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 74 74 NNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 70 70 NNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 67 67 NNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 64 64 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 62 62 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 61 61 ENE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 60 60 ENE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 59 59 ENE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 59 59 E 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 59 59 E 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 60 60 E 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 62 63 SW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 66 69 SW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 71 76 SW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 76 83 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 78 86 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 80 88 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 81 88 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 83 89 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 84 88 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 84 86 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 81 82 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 77 77 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 72 72 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 68 68 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 65 65 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]