Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.184800, -118.727000, 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 ENE 1 3 2686 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 36 E 2 4 2559 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 E 3 5 2559 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 35 35 E 3 5 2559 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 E 4 6 2559 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 E 4 6 2559 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 E 4 8 2559 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 ESE 4 6 2559 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 ESE 3 5 2559 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 36 36 SE 4 5 2559 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 41 S 4 6 4648 5075 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 43 43 S 4 6 5090 5075 0 White 3
12 Noon Sun 44 44 SSW 4 6 5310 5310 235 White 4
1 PM Sun 45 45 SW 5 8 5528 5528 453 White 5
2 PM Sun 46 46 SW 5 8 5746 5746 671 White 6
3 PM Sun 47 47 WSW 5 8 5965 5965 890 White 7
4 PM Sun 48 48 WSW 5 9 6182 6182 1107 White 8
5 PM Sun 47 47 WSW 5 8 5965 5965 890 White 7
6 PM Sun 48 48 W 4 6 6182 6182 1107 White 8
7 PM Sun 46 46 W 3 5 5746 5746 671 White 6
8 PM Sun 42 42 W 3 5 4870 5075 0 White 2
9 PM Sun 41 41 W 3 5 4648 5075 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 WNW 3 5 4424 5075 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 W 3 5 4424 5075 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 NW 3 5 4424 5075 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 W 3 5 4199 5075 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 SSW 2 4 4424 5075 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 SSW 2 4 4199 5075 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 SE 2 4 3525 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 ESE 2 4 3525 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 SE 2 4 3525 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 ESE 2 4 3525 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 SSW 2 2 2686 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 39 40 WSW 2 3 4424 5075 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 44 46 W 3 4 5746 5746 671 White 6
11 AM Mon 48 50 W 5 8 6614 6614 1539 White 10
12 Noon Mon 48 51 W 5 8 6828 6828 1753 White 11
1 PM Mon 50 53 W 5 8 7258 7258 2183 White 13
2 PM Mon 53 56 W 5 9 7900 7900 2825 White 16
3 PM Mon 55 57 W 5 9 8113 8113 3038 White 17
4 PM Mon 55 56 W 5 9 7900 7900 2825 White 16
5 PM Mon 55 55 W 5 9 7685 7685 2610 White 15
6 PM Mon 54 54 W 5 9 7472 7472 2397 White 14
7 PM Mon 52 52 W 5 9 7043 7043 1968 White 12
8 PM Mon 50 50 NW 3 4 6614 6614 1539 White 10
9 PM Mon 48 48 NW 3 4 6182 6182 1107 White 8
10 PM Mon 46 46 NW 3 4 5746 5746 671 White 6
11 PM Mon 45 45 E 2 4 5528 5528 453 White 5
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 E 2 4 5310 5310 235 White 4
1 AM Tue 43 43 E 2 4 5090 5075 0 White 3
2 AM Tue 43 43 ENE 2 4 5090 5075 0 White 3
3 AM Tue 42 42 ENE 2 4 4870 5075 0 White 2
4 AM Tue 42 42 ENE 2 4 4870 5075 0 White 2
5 AM Tue 42 42 E 2 4 4870 5075 0 White 2
6 AM Tue 42 42 E 2 4 4870 5075 0 White 2
7 AM Tue 44 44 E 2 4 5310 5310 235 White 4
8 AM Tue 46 47 E 2 3 5965 5965 890 White 7
9 AM Tue 51 53 E 2 3 7258 7258 2183 White 13
10 AM Tue 56 60 E 2 3 8750 8750 3675 White 20
11 AM Tue 61 67 WSW 3 5 10217 10217 5142 White 27
12 Noon Tue 64 71 WSW 3 5 11030 11030 5955 White 31
1 PM Tue 65 72 WSW 3 5 11232 11232 6157 White 32
2 PM Tue 66 72 W 5 8 11232 11232 6157 White 32
3 PM Tue 67 72 W 5 8 11232 11232 6157 White 32
4 PM Tue 68 71 W 5 8 11030 11030 5955 White 31
5 PM Tue 67 68 W 6 11 10421 10421 5346 White 28
6 PM Tue 65 65 W 6 11 9807 9807 4732 White 25
7 PM Tue 62 62 W 6 11 9174 9174 4099 White 22
8 PM Tue 59 59 NNW 5 8 8538 8538 3463 White 19
9 PM Tue 56 56 NNW 5 8 7900 7900 2825 White 16
10 PM Tue 54 54 NNW 5 8 7472 7472 2397 White 14
11 PM Tue 52 52 NNE 5 8 7043 7043 1968 White 12
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NNE 5 8 6828 6828 1753 White 11
1 AM Wed 50 50 NNE 5 8 6614 6614 1539 White 10
2 AM Wed 50 50 NE 5 8 6614 6614 1539 White 10
3 AM Wed 49 49 NE 5 8 6398 6398 1323 White 9
4 AM Wed 48 48 NE 5 8 6182 6182 1107 White 8
5 AM Wed 48 48 NE 5 8 6182 6182 1107 White 8
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 5 8 6182 6182 1107 White 8
7 AM Wed 49 49 NE 5 8 6398 6398 1323 White 9
8 AM Wed 51 51 N 5 8 6828 6828 1753 White 11
9 AM Wed 55 57 N 5 8 8113 8113 3038 White 17
10 AM Wed 60 63 N 5 8 9385 9385 4310 White 23
11 AM Wed 64 68 W 5 10 10421 10421 5346 White 28
12 Noon Wed 67 72 W 5 10 11232 11232 6157 White 32
1 PM Wed 68 74 W 5 10 11636 11636 6561 White 34
2 PM Wed 69 73 W 8 12 11435 11435 6360 White 33
3 PM Wed 70 73 W 8 12 11435 11435 6360 White 33
4 PM Wed 71 73 W 8 12 11435 11435 6360 White 33
5 PM Wed 70 71 W 8 12 11030 11030 5955 White 31
6 PM Wed 68 68 W 8 12 10421 10421 5346 White 28
7 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 12 10013 10013 4938 White 26
8 PM Wed 63 63 N 5 9 9385 9385 4310 White 23
9 PM Wed 60 60 N 5 9 8750 8750 3675 White 20
10 PM Wed 58 58 N 5 9 8325 8325 3250 White 18
11 PM Wed 56 56 ENE 5 6 7900 7900 2825 White 16
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 ENE 5 6 7685 7685 2610 White 15
1 AM Thu 54 54 ENE 5 6 7472 7472 2397 White 14
2 AM Thu 54 54 ENE 4 8 7472 7472 2397 White 14
3 AM Thu 53 53 ENE 4 8 7258 7258 2183 White 13
4 AM Thu 52 52 ENE 4 8 7043 7043 1968 White 12
5 AM Thu 52 52 ENE 5 8 7043 7043 1968 White 12
6 AM Thu 52 52 ENE 5 8 7043 7043 1968 White 12
7 AM Thu 52 52 ENE 5 8 7043 7043 1968 White 12
8 AM Thu 54 54 E 5 8 7472 7472 2397 White 14
9 AM Thu 59 60 E 5 8 8750 8750 3675 White 20
10 AM Thu 65 67 E 5 8 10217 10217 5142 White 27
11 AM Thu 70 73 WSW 6 9 11435 11435 6360 White 33
12 Noon Thu 73 77 WSW 6 9 12241 12241 7166 White 37
1 PM Thu 74 78 WSW 6 9 12441 12441 7366 White 38
2 PM Thu 74 78 W 8 12 12441 12441 7366 White 38
3 PM Thu 75 78 W 8 12 12441 12441 7366 White 38
4 PM Thu 74 76 W 8 12 12040 12040 6965 White 36
5 PM Thu 73 74 W 8 12 11636 11636 6561 White 34
6 PM Thu 70 70 W 8 12 10827 10827 5752 White 30
7 PM Thu 66 66 W 8 12 10013 10013 4938 White 26
8 PM Thu 63 63 N 5 9 9385 9385 4310 White 23
9 PM Thu 61 61 N 5 9 8962 8962 3887 White 21
10 PM Thu 59 59 N 5 9 8538 8538 3463 White 19
11 PM Thu 58 58 ENE 5 8 8325 8325 3250 White 18
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 ENE 5 8 8113 8113 3038 White 17
1 AM Fri 57 57 ENE 5 8 8113 8113 3038 White 17
2 AM Fri 56 56 ENE 5 8 7900 7900 2825 White 16
3 AM Fri 55 55 ENE 5 8 7685 7685 2610 White 15
4 AM Fri 55 55 ENE 5 8 7685 7685 2610 White 15
5 AM Fri 54 54 ENE 5 6 7472 7472 2397 White 14
6 AM Fri 53 53 ENE 5 6 7258 7258 2183 White 13
7 AM Fri 52 52 ENE 5 6 7043 7043 1968 White 12
8 AM Fri 53 53 NW 5 6 7258 7258 2183 White 13
9 AM Fri 57 58 NW 5 6 8325 8325 3250 White 18
10 AM Fri 62 64 NW 5 6 9596 9596 4521 White 24
11 AM Fri 67 71 WSW 6 10 11030 11030 5955 White 31
12 Noon Fri 69 74 WSW 6 10 11636 11636 6561 White 34
1 PM Fri 71 77 WSW 6 10 12241 12241 7166 White 37
2 PM Fri 71 75 W 10 14 11838 11838 6763 White 35
3 PM Fri 71 74 W 10 14 11636 11636 6561 White 34
4 PM Fri 71 73 W 10 14 11435 11435 6360 White 33
5 PM Fri 70 71 W 9 13 11030 11030 5955 White 31
6 PM Fri 68 68 W 9 13 10421 10421 5346 White 28
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 9 13 9807 9807 4732 White 25
8 PM Fri 62 62 NW 6 10 9174 9174 4099 White 22
9 PM Fri 60 60 NW 6 10 8750 8750 3675 White 20
10 PM Fri 58 58 NW 6 10 8325 8325 3250 White 18

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]