Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.184800, -118.727000, 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 10 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 ENE 5 11 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 ENE 5 12 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 ENE 6 12 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 ENE 5 10 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 ENE 4 10 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 NE 4 10 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 ENE 5 12 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 N 2 9 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 ENE 5 11 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 NE 3 6 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 54 SSW 0 0 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 59 WSW 3 4 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 59 61 WSW 4 5 5716 5075 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 60 62 WSW 5 6 6138 5075 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 59 60 WSW 5 6 5287 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 58 58 WSW 4 5 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 52 52 WSW 3 4 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 47 47 NW 1 2 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 NE 2 5 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 NE 4 8 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 NE 4 8 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 NE 4 8 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 NE 4 8 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 NE 4 8 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 NE 3 8 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 NE 3 7 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 NE 4 8 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 NNE 3 8 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 NNE 3 8 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 NNE 4 9 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 NE 4 9 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 NE 4 9 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 NE 4 9 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 NNE 2 6 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 51 W 2 3 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 53 55 WSW 4 5 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 55 57 WSW 6 7 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 56 58 WSW 6 7 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 55 56 W 6 8 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 54 54 W 6 7 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 49 49 W 4 5 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 42 42 W 3 5 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 39 39 NNE 2 5 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 37 37 NE 4 8 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 NE 4 9 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 NE 4 10 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 34 34 NE 4 9 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 34 34 NE 4 9 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 NE 4 9 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 33 33 ENE 5 11 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 NE 5 11 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 32 32 NE 4 9 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 32 32 NE 5 11 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 32 32 NE 5 11 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 ENE 5 11 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 31 31 ENE 5 11 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 NE 5 11 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 42 ENE 3 6 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 47 S 1 1 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 51 SW 4 5 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 51 53 SW 5 6 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 54 WSW 6 7 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 52 53 WSW 6 8 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 50 50 WSW 6 7 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 47 47 WSW 4 5 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 40 40 WSW 2 3 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 37 37 E 4 9 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 34 34 ENE 6 13 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 33 33 ENE 6 14 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 32 32 ENE 6 14 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 32 32 ENE 7 15 5056 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 31 31 ENE 7 15 5056 5075 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]