Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.184800, -118.727000, 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 250314/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 30 30 SSE 3 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 29 29 SE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 28 28 E 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 28 28 ESE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 29 ESE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 27 27 SE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 E 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 29 29 ESE 2 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 29 29 ESE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 30 30 ESE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 32 32 E 2 5 3451 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 37 37 E 2 5 4881 5075 0 White 5
12 Noon Fri 38 38 E 3 8 5102 5075 0 White 6
1 PM Fri 41 41 WSW 4 9 5760 5738 663 White 9
2 PM Fri 41 41 WSW 5 10 5760 5738 663 White 9
3 PM Fri 41 41 W 5 11 5760 5738 663 White 9
4 PM Fri 42 42 W 6 12 5979 5979 904 White 10
5 PM Fri 42 42 W 6 12 5979 5979 904 White 10
6 PM Fri 42 42 WNW 6 13 5979 5979 904 White 10
7 PM Fri 39 39 WNW 5 12 5321 5075 0 White 7
8 PM Fri 37 37 NW 4 11 4881 5075 0 White 5
9 PM Fri 36 36 WNW 4 10 4660 5075 0 White 4
10 PM Fri 36 36 WNW 3 9 4660 5075 0 White 4
11 PM Fri 36 36 WNW 2 6 4660 5075 0 White 4
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 WNW 2 6 4437 5075 0 White 3
1 AM Sat 35 35 W 2 6 4437 5075 0 White 3
2 AM Sat 34 34 WNW 2 5 4214 5075 0 White 2
3 AM Sat 34 34 WSW 2 5 4214 5075 0 White 2
4 AM Sat 33 33 SSW 2 5 3990 5075 0 White 1
5 AM Sat 32 32 SW 2 5 3451 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 SSE 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 SE 2 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 30 30 S 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 31 32 SSW 2 6 3451 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 35 37 SW 3 6 4881 5075 0 White 5
11 AM Sat 40 42 WSW 4 9 5979 5979 904 White 10
12 Noon Sat 42 45 WSW 4 9 6634 6568 1493 White 13
1 PM Sat 44 47 WSW 4 9 7068 6827 1752 White 15
2 PM Sat 45 47 W 5 9 7068 6827 1752 White 15
3 PM Sat 47 49 W 5 9 7500 7085 2010 White 17
4 PM Sat 48 49 W 5 9 7500 7085 2010 White 17
5 PM Sat 48 48 W 4 8 7284 6956 1881 White 16
6 PM Sat 46 46 W 4 8 6851 6698 1623 White 14
7 PM Sat 44 44 W 4 8 6416 6416 1341 White 12
8 PM Sat 41 41 NE 2 5 5760 5738 663 White 9
9 PM Sat 40 40 NE 2 5 5542 5387 312 White 8
10 PM Sat 39 39 NE 2 5 5321 5075 0 White 7
11 PM Sat 38 38 ENE 2 4 5102 5075 0 White 6
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 ENE 2 4 5102 5075 0 White 6
1 AM Sun 37 37 ENE 2 4 4881 5075 0 White 5
2 AM Sun 37 37 NE 2 4 4881 5075 0 White 5
3 AM Sun 36 36 NE 2 4 4660 5075 0 White 4
4 AM Sun 35 35 NE 2 4 4437 5075 0 White 3
5 AM Sun 35 35 NE 2 5 4437 5075 0 White 3
6 AM Sun 35 35 NE 2 5 4437 5075 0 White 3
7 AM Sun 36 36 NE 2 5 4660 5075 0 White 4
8 AM Sun 38 38 NE 2 5 5102 5075 0 White 6
9 AM Sun 43 43 NE 2 5 6198 6198 1123 White 11
10 AM Sun 48 50 NE 2 5 7715 7329 2254 White 18
11 AM Sun 53 55 W 2 4 8787 8592 3517 White 23
12 Noon Sun 56 59 W 2 4 9639 9597 4522 White 27
1 PM Sun 58 61 W 2 4 10058 10058 4983 White 29
2 PM Sun 59 61 W 2 4 10058 10058 4983 White 29
3 PM Sun 61 62 W 2 4 10267 10267 5192 White 30
4 PM Sun 61 62 W 2 4 10267 10267 5192 White 30
5 PM Sun 61 61 W 2 4 10058 10058 4983 White 29
6 PM Sun 58 58 W 2 4 9426 9347 4272 White 26
7 PM Sun 55 55 W 2 4 8787 8592 3517 White 23
8 PM Sun 51 51 NE 2 3 7930 7582 2507 White 19
9 PM Sun 48 48 NE 2 3 7284 6956 1881 White 16
10 PM Sun 46 46 NE 2 3 6851 6698 1623 White 14
11 PM Sun 45 45 ENE 2 3 6634 6568 1493 White 13
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 ENE 2 3 6416 6416 1341 White 12
1 AM Mon 43 43 ENE 2 3 6198 6198 1123 White 11
2 AM Mon 43 43 ENE 1 3 6198 6198 1123 White 11
3 AM Mon 43 43 ENE 1 3 6198 6198 1123 White 11
4 AM Mon 42 42 ENE 1 3 5979 5979 904 White 10
5 AM Mon 42 42 ENE 1 3 5979 5979 904 White 10
6 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 1 3 5760 5738 663 White 9
7 AM Mon 40 40 ENE 1 3 5542 5387 312 White 8
8 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 2 4 5760 5738 663 White 9
9 AM Mon 44 44 ENE 2 4 6416 6416 1341 White 12
10 AM Mon 48 49 ENE 2 4 7500 7085 2010 White 17
11 AM Mon 51 51 WSW 4 8 7930 7582 2507 White 19
12 Noon Mon 52 52 WSW 4 8 8145 7834 2759 White 20
1 PM Mon 52 52 WSW 4 8 8145 7834 2759 White 20
2 PM Mon 52 52 W 6 12 8145 7834 2759 White 20
3 PM Mon 52 52 W 6 12 8145 7834 2759 White 20
4 PM Mon 51 51 W 6 12 7930 7582 2507 White 19
5 PM Mon 49 49 W 6 12 7500 7085 2010 White 17
6 PM Mon 46 46 W 6 12 6851 6698 1623 White 14
7 PM Mon 43 43 W 6 12 6198 6198 1123 White 11
8 PM Mon 40 40 WNW 5 12 5542 5387 312 White 8
9 PM Mon 38 38 WNW 5 12 5102 5075 0 White 6
10 PM Mon 38 38 WNW 5 12 5102 5075 0 White 6
11 PM Mon 37 37 WNW 4 9 4881 5075 0 White 5
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 WNW 4 9 4881 5075 0 White 5
1 AM Tue 36 36 WNW 4 9 4660 5075 0 White 4
2 AM Tue 36 36 W 3 6 4660 5075 0 White 4
3 AM Tue 35 35 W 3 6 4437 5075 0 White 3
4 AM Tue 35 35 W 3 6 4437 5075 0 White 3
5 AM Tue 34 34 WNW 2 6 4214 5075 0 White 2
6 AM Tue 32 32 WNW 2 6 3451 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 31 31 WNW 2 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 31 31 WNW 3 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 33 33 WNW 3 6 3990 5075 0 White 1
10 AM Tue 36 37 WNW 3 6 4881 5075 0 White 5
11 AM Tue 39 41 W 4 9 5760 5738 663 White 9
12 Noon Tue 41 44 W 4 9 6416 6416 1341 White 12
1 PM Tue 43 46 W 4 9 6851 6698 1623 White 14
2 PM Tue 45 48 W 5 10 7284 6956 1881 White 16
3 PM Tue 47 49 W 5 10 7500 7085 2010 White 17
4 PM Tue 48 49 W 5 10 7500 7085 2010 White 17
5 PM Tue 48 48 W 4 8 7284 6956 1881 White 16
6 PM Tue 46 46 W 4 8 6851 6698 1623 White 14
7 PM Tue 44 44 W 4 8 6416 6416 1341 White 12
8 PM Tue 41 41 E 2 5 5760 5738 663 White 9
9 PM Tue 39 39 E 2 5 5321 5075 0 White 7
10 PM Tue 37 37 E 2 5 4881 5075 0 White 5
11 PM Tue 36 36 E 2 4 4660 5075 0 White 4
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 E 2 4 4437 5075 0 White 3
1 AM Wed 34 34 E 2 4 4214 5075 0 White 2
2 AM Wed 34 34 ENE 2 4 4214 5075 0 White 2
3 AM Wed 33 33 ENE 2 4 3990 5075 0 White 1
4 AM Wed 33 33 ENE 2 4 3990 5075 0 White 1
5 AM Wed 33 33 ENE 2 6 3990 5075 0 White 1
6 AM Wed 33 33 ENE 2 6 3990 5075 0 White 1
7 AM Wed 33 33 ENE 2 6 3990 5075 0 White 1
8 AM Wed 35 35 ENE 2 5 4437 5075 0 White 3
9 AM Wed 40 41 ENE 2 5 5760 5738 663 White 9
10 AM Wed 46 48 ENE 2 5 7284 6956 1881 White 16
11 AM Wed 51 54 W 2 4 8574 8340 3265 White 22
12 Noon Wed 54 57 W 2 4 9214 9095 4020 White 25
1 PM Wed 56 60 W 2 4 9850 9850 4775 White 28
2 PM Wed 57 60 W 3 6 9850 9850 4775 White 28
3 PM Wed 58 60 W 3 6 9850 9850 4775 White 28
4 PM Wed 59 60 W 3 6 9850 9850 4775 White 28
5 PM Wed 58 58 W 3 5 9426 9347 4272 White 26
6 PM Wed 56 56 W 3 5 9001 8844 3769 White 24
7 PM Wed 52 52 W 3 5 8145 7834 2759 White 20
8 PM Wed 49 49 NE 2 4 7500 7085 2010 White 17
9 PM Wed 47 47 NE 2 4 7068 6827 1752 White 15
10 PM Wed 45 45 NE 2 4 6634 6568 1493 White 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]