Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.184800, -118.727000, 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 73 73 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 73 73 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 73 73 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 72 72 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 71 71 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 70 70 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 69 69 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 67 67 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 72 72 SSE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 84 85 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 86 88 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 90 92 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 91 92 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 91 93 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 93 95 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 92 93 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 91 91 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 90 90 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 85 85 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 78 78 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 74 74 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 73 73 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 72 72 E 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 71 71 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 71 71 ENE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 70 70 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 69 69 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 68 68 E 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 68 68 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 66 66 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 64 64 ENE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 69 70 ESE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 81 83 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 83 87 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 85 89 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 86 91 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 87 91 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 88 91 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 89 91 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 88 88 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 84 84 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 79 79 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 74 74 NE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 71 71 NE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 70 70 NE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 69 69 ENE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 ENE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 68 68 ENE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 67 67 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 66 66 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 65 65 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 64 64 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 62 62 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 60 60 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 61 61 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 66 67 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 73 75 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 79 83 SW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 82 87 SW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 84 89 SW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 85 89 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 86 89 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 87 89 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 86 86 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 82 82 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 77 77 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 73 73 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 70 70 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 69 69 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 68 68 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 67 67 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 67 67 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 66 66 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 65 65 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 64 64 E 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 62 62 E 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 60 60 E 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 61 61 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 66 66 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 73 74 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 79 81 SW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 82 85 SW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 84 87 SW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 85 87 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 86 88 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 86 87 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 85 85 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 81 81 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 76 76 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 72 72 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 70 70 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 68 68 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 67 67 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 66 66 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 65 65 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 64 64 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 64 64 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 63 63 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 61 61 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 59 59 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 59 59 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 64 64 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 70 71 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 76 79 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 79 82 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 81 85 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 82 85 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 83 85 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 83 84 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 82 82 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 78 78 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 73 73 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 69 69 NE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 67 67 NE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 65 65 NE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 64 64 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 63 63 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 62 62 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 61 61 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 60 60 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 59 59 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 56 56 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 54 54 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 59 59 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 65 66 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 71 74 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 74 77 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 76 80 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 77 80 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 78 80 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 78 79 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 77 77 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 74 74 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 70 70 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 66 66 NE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 63 63 NE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 61 61 NE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]