Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.184800, -118.727000, 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 E 4 8 3044 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 69 69 E 4 8 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 69 E 3 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 E 3 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 E 3 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 65 E 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 E 3 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 E 3 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 SE 3 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 71 WSW 2 5 3315 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 79 82 WSW 4 5 7585 5151 76 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 82 86 WSW 4 8 9296 8336 3261 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 85 91 WSW 5 9 10493 9624 4549 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 86 92 WSW 6 10 10755 9896 4821 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 88 94 W 6 11 11276 10437 5362 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 89 94 W 6 11 11276 10437 5362 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 89 92 W 5 10 10755 9896 4821 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 90 91 W 5 10 10493 9624 4549 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 87 87 W 5 9 9399 9093 4018 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 85 85 W 3 6 9202 7485 2410 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 79 79 NNW 4 8 5156 5075 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 70 70 E 4 8 3044 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 68 E 3 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 67 E 3 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 E 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 E 1 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 NNE 1 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 E 1 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 ESE 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 ESE 0 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 ESE 0 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 ESE 0 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 WSW 2 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 62 WSW 2 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 69 72 WSW 2 6 3585 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 72 77 W 6 11 4912 5075 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 75 81 W 6 11 6730 5075 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 75 81 W 6 11 6730 5075 0 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 78 84 W 6 11 9109 6657 1582 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 80 84 W 6 11 9109 6657 1582 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 80 83 W 6 11 8465 5851 776 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 81 82 W 5 10 7585 5151 76 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 79 79 W 5 10 5156 5075 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 75 75 W 5 10 4392 5075 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 71 71 N 2 4 3315 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 67 N 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 N 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 NE 1 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 NE 1 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 NE 1 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 ENE 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 ENE 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 ENE 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 E 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 E 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 E 1 3 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 ESE 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 61 ESE 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 70 ESE 2 5 3044 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 73 78 WSW 4 6 5034 5075 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 77 83 WSW 4 6 8465 5851 776 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 79 85 WSW 4 6 9202 7485 2410 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 81 87 WSW 5 9 9399 9093 4018 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 82 87 WSW 5 9 9399 9093 4018 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 83 86 WSW 5 9 9296 8336 3261 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 82 83 W 4 6 8465 5851 776 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 79 79 W 4 6 5156 5075 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 74 74 W 4 6 4123 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 69 69 NE 4 8 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 NE 4 8 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 NE 4 8 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 ENE 1 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 ENE 1 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 ENE 1 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 ENE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 ENE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 ENE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 ENE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 ENE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 ENE 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 E 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 64 E 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 73 E 2 4 3854 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 76 81 WSW 4 6 6730 5075 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 79 85 WSW 4 6 9202 7485 2410 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 81 87 WSW 4 6 9399 9093 4018 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 82 88 W 5 9 9675 9186 4111 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 84 89 W 5 9 9949 9279 4204 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 85 88 W 5 9 9675 9186 4111 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 84 85 W 4 8 9202 7485 2410 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 79 79 W 4 8 5156 5075 0 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 75 75 W 4 8 4392 5075 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 71 71 ENE 6 9 3315 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 68 ENE 6 9 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 66 ENE 6 9 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 E 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 E 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 E 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 E 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 E 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 E 2 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 E 1 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 E 1 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 E 1 4 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 E 3 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 63 E 3 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 72 E 3 5 3585 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 76 81 WSW 4 6 6730 5075 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 80 86 WSW 4 6 9296 8336 3261 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 82 88 WSW 4 6 9675 9186 4111 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 83 89 WSW 5 9 9949 9279 4204 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 85 89 WSW 5 9 9949 9279 4204 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 85 88 WSW 5 9 9675 9186 4111 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 84 85 W 4 8 9202 7485 2410 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 81 81 W 4 8 6730 5075 0 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 76 76 W 4 8 4660 5075 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 72 72 ENE 11 11 3585 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 69 ENE 11 11 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 67 ENE 11 11 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 65 E 3 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 E 3 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 E 3 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 E 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 E 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 E 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 E 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 E 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 E 2 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 ESE 3 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 66 ESE 3 5 2999 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 72 75 ESE 3 5 4392 5075 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 79 84 WSW 4 6 9109 6657 1582 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 83 89 WSW 4 6 9949 9279 4204 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 85 91 WSW 4 6 10493 9624 4549 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 86 92 WSW 5 9 10755 9896 4821 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 88 93 WSW 5 9 11015 10170 5095 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 88 91 WSW 5 9 10493 9624 4549 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 87 88 W 4 8 9675 9186 4111 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 84 84 W 4 8 9109 6657 1582 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 4 8 5156 5075 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 75 75 NE 5 6 4392 5075 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 72 72 NE 5 6 3585 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 69 69 NE 5 6 2999 5075 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]