Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.184800, -118.727000, 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 79 79 ENE 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 81 81 E 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 80 80 E 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 80 80 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 80 80 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 78 78 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 78 78 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 78 78 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 79 79 SW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 84 85 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 89 91 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 91 93 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 95 98 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 96 99 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 97 100 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 98 100 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 97 99 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 96 96 ENE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 94 94 ENE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 91 91 ENE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 86 86 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 80 80 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 78 78 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 77 77 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 77 77 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 76 76 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 76 76 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 76 76 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 74 74 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 74 74 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 74 74 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 72 72 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 75 76 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 81 83 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 86 89 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 88 92 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 91 96 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 93 98 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 94 99 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 96 100 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 96 99 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 96 99 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 94 95 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 90 90 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 86 86 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 82 82 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 79 79 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 76 76 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 74 74 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 73 73 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 72 72 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 71 71 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 71 71 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 71 71 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 72 72 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 74 75 SSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 78 81 SSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 82 87 SSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 86 93 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 89 97 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 91 99 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 92 100 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 94 101 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 94 99 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 94 97 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 92 93 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 88 88 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 84 84 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 81 81 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 78 78 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 75 75 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 72 72 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 71 71 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 70 70 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 70 70 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 70 70 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 69 69 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 70 70 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 71 72 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 75 78 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 80 85 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 85 92 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 88 96 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 90 99 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 91 99 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 93 100 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 93 98 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 93 96 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 91 92 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 87 87 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 83 83 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 80 80 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 77 77 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 74 74 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 71 71 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 70 70 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 69 69 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 67 67 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 67 67 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 67 67 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 68 68 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 70 71 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 74 77 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 79 84 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 84 91 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 87 95 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 89 98 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 90 97 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 92 98 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 92 96 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 92 95 WNW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 90 91 WNW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 87 87 WNW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 83 83 WNW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 79 79 WNW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 76 76 WNW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 73 73 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 71 71 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 70 70 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 69 69 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 68 68 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 68 68 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 68 68 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 69 69 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 71 72 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 75 78 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 80 84 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 84 90 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 87 94 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 89 96 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 91 97 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 93 98 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 94 98 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 93 95 WNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 91 92 WNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 87 87 WNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 83 83 WNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 80 80 WNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 76 76 WNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]