Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.1559626015, -116.809663372, 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 ENE 12 20 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 ENE 10 18 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 ENE 10 17 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 ENE 9 16 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 ENE 9 16 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 ENE 9 16 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 ENE 9 16 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 ENE 9 16 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 ENE 6 13 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 52 ENE 2 6 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 59 WSW 3 9 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 64 WSW 4 10 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 64 WSW 5 11 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 62 WSW 6 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 61 62 WSW 6 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 60 WSW 5 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 56 WSW 4 10 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 54 WNW 3 9 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 52 NNE 3 8 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 ENE 2 6 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 ENE 2 6 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 ENE 2 6 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 ENE 3 8 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 E 4 9 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 E 5 11 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 E 5 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 E 5 11 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 E 5 10 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 E 4 10 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 E 6 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 E 8 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 E 9 17 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 SE 8 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 51 S 6 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 57 SW 5 10 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 61 SW 6 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 59 61 SW 8 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 60 62 SW 9 16 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 59 60 SW 8 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 58 58 SSW 6 13 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 56 SSW 5 11 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 54 54 S 5 10 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 52 52 ESE 4 10 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 E 4 10 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 E 3 9 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 ENE 3 8 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 NE 2 6 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 NE 3 8 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NNE 3 9 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 NNE 4 10 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 NNE 5 11 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 NE 6 13 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 NE 8 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 NE 9 16 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 10 17 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 NE 10 17 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 ENE 8 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 54 SE 5 11 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 58 SSE 4 9 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 59 S 4 10 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 61 WSW 6 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 60 W 8 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 58 59 W 8 13 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 57 WNW 6 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 56 WNW 6 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 55 NW 6 13 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 53 NNE 8 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 NE 9 16 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 NE 9 17 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 NE 10 17 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 NE 10 17 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 NE 11 18 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 NE 11 19 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 NE 11 20 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 NE 11 19 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 ENE 11 19 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 ENE 10 18 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 ENE 10 18 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 ENE 10 18 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 ENE 9 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 ENE 9 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 56 ENE 9 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 59 E 10 13 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 61 E 10 13 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 60 62 E 10 13 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 62 E 10 17 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 60 61 E 10 17 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 59 59 E 10 17 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 58 58 E 10 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 56 56 E 10 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 55 E 10 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 ENE 8 11 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 ENE 8 11 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 ENE 8 11 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 ENE 10 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 ENE 10 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 ENE 10 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 ENE 9 13 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 ENE 9 13 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 ENE 9 13 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 ENE 10 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 ENE 10 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 ENE 10 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 ENE 11 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 ENE 11 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 ENE 11 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 E 13 17 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 61 E 13 17 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 62 E 13 17 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 62 E 16 20 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 61 E 16 20 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 59 E 16 20 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 58 ENE 12 19 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 ENE 12 19 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 55 ENE 12 19 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 55 ENE 10 13 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 ENE 10 13 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 ENE 10 13 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 ENE 11 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 ENE 11 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 ENE 11 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 ENE 10 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 ENE 10 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 ENE 10 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 ENE 11 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 ENE 11 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 ENE 11 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 ENE 11 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 ENE 11 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 ENE 11 14 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 59 E 13 18 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 61 E 13 18 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 62 E 13 18 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 60 62 E 14 19 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 61 E 14 19 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 59 59 E 14 19 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 58 58 ENE 11 16 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 57 ENE 11 16 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 56 ENE 11 16 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 ENE 8 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 ENE 8 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 ENE 8 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 ENE 10 12 3094 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst