Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.1559626015, -116.809663372, 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 78 78 N 2 5 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 75 75 N 1 5 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 77 77 E 1 5 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 76 76 E 2 5 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 76 76 E 2 5 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 75 75 ESE 2 5 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 77 77 SE 2 5 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 75 75 SE 2 5 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 78 79 SSW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 81 SW 2 6 3412 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 80 84 SW 4 9 3820 3900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 81 85 WSW 8 14 3938 3900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 82 87 WSW 8 13 4174 3900 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 84 89 WSW 8 14 4406 4054 154 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 85 90 WSW 9 17 4513 4171 271 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 84 88 SSW 8 14 4292 3936 36 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 81 84 SW 8 14 3820 3900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 81 82 SSE 11 19 3564 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 79 79 S 8 13 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 76 76 WSW 4 9 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 73 73 W 2 5 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 72 72 WNW 1 1 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 73 73 N 1 1 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 73 73 NE 1 4 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 ENE 1 4 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 73 73 E 1 5 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 73 73 E 1 5 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 73 73 ESE 1 5 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 72 72 SE 1 4 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 71 71 SE 1 1 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 S 1 1 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 71 71 SSW 1 4 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 73 SW 2 5 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 75 SW 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 73 77 WSW 4 10 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 74 79 WSW 6 12 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 79 84 WSW 8 14 3820 3900 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 81 87 WSW 9 16 4174 3900 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 78 83 WSW 10 17 3703 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 79 83 WSW 10 17 3703 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 81 84 WSW 10 17 3820 3900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 76 78 W 9 16 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 79 80 W 8 13 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 76 76 W 5 11 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 73 73 W 4 9 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 71 71 W 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 72 W 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 72 WNW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 WNW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 72 72 NW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 72 72 NW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 NW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 NW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 72 72 NW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 72 72 NW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 74 74 W 2 5 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 73 W 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 78 81 W 4 9 3412 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 74 79 W 6 12 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 74 81 W 8 14 3412 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 81 89 W 9 16 4406 4054 154 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 75 83 W 10 18 3703 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 76 84 W 11 19 3820 3900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 75 81 W 11 19 3412 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 80 84 W 10 18 3820 3900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 73 75 W 10 17 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 77 78 W 9 16 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 74 74 W 8 13 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 68 W 4 10 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 69 W 4 9 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 68 W 4 9 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 67 WNW 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 NW 1 1 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 68 NNW 1 1 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 68 WNW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 68 NW 1 5 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 68 NW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 68 WNW 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 WNW 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 WNW 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 72 W 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 75 W 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 79 W 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 77 84 W 6 13 3820 3900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 79 87 W 6 13 4174 3900 0 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 81 89 W 6 13 4406 4054 154 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 81 89 W 10 17 4406 4054 154 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 81 87 W 10 17 4174 3900 0 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 81 85 W 10 17 3938 3900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 78 80 W 10 17 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 75 76 W 10 17 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 72 72 W 10 17 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 69 69 W 5 10 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 68 W 5 10 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 68 68 W 5 10 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 69 W 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 W 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 70 W 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 WNW 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 WNW 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 WNW 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 69 69 NNW 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 70 NNW 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 71 71 NNW 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 74 W 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 77 W 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 76 81 W 3 8 3412 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 78 84 W 6 13 3820 3900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 79 87 W 6 13 4174 3900 0 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 81 89 W 6 13 4406 4054 154 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 81 88 W 10 17 4292 3936 36 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 81 87 W 10 17 4174 3900 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 81 85 W 10 17 3938 3900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 79 81 W 10 17 3412 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 76 77 W 10 17 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 73 73 W 10 17 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 5 10 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 69 W 5 10 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 69 W 5 10 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 70 W 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 W 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 71 W 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 NNW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 71 71 NNW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 71 71 NNW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 71 71 NNW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 71 71 NNW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 72 NNW 2 6 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 74 W 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 77 W 3 8 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 76 81 W 3 8 3412 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 78 85 W 6 12 3938 3900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 80 88 W 6 12 4292 3936 36 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 82 90 W 6 12 4513 4171 271 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 82 90 W 9 16 4513 4171 271 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 83 89 W 9 16 4406 4054 154 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 82 86 W 9 16 4056 3900 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 80 82 W 9 16 3564 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 77 78 W 9 16 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 9 16 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 4 9 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 71 71 W 4 9 3333 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 71 71 W 4 9 3333 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst