Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.344300, -116.820000, 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 82 82 S 4 9 7394 6280 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 81 81 S 3 9 5645 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 80 80 S 4 9 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 79 79 S 4 10 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 78 78 SSE 4 10 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 78 78 S 5 11 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 78 78 S 6 12 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 82 82 S 4 10 7394 6280 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 84 85 SSE 4 10 10870 7314 1034 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 84 86 S 5 10 12054 8677 2397 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 86 89 S 6 12 14481 11767 5487 White 8
11 AM Sat 90 93 S 6 13 15317 15317 9037 White 12
12 Noon Sat 91 94 S 8 14 15526 15526 9246 White 13
1 PM Sat 90 93 S 9 16 15317 15317 9037 White 12
2 PM Sat 90 93 S 12 20 15317 15317 9037 White 12
3 PM Sat 90 93 S 14 23 15317 15317 9037 White 12
4 PM Sat 89 91 S 17 27 14899 14899 8619 White 10
5 PM Sat 90 91 S 17 27 14899 14899 8619 White 10
6 PM Sat 88 88 S 16 26 14270 10831 4551 White 7
7 PM Sat 86 86 S 14 24 12054 8677 2397 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 84 84 S 13 21 10336 6280 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 82 82 SSW 11 18 7394 6280 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 81 81 SSW 8 14 5645 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 79 79 SSW 5 11 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 80 80 SSW 4 10 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 78 78 S 4 9 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 77 77 SSE 4 9 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 76 76 S 4 10 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 76 76 S 4 10 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 76 76 S 4 10 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 75 75 SSE 3 9 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 78 78 E 2 6 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 79 80 ENE 1 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 79 81 NE 1 5 5645 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 80 84 NE 2 6 10336 6280 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 82 85 NE 3 8 10870 7314 1034 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 79 83 NE 3 8 8843 6280 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 83 87 E 2 6 14061 10147 3867 White 6
2 PM Sun 82 86 ESE 2 6 12054 8677 2397 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 79 82 SE 2 6 7394 6280 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 82 84 S 2 6 10336 6280 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 82 83 SW 3 8 8843 6280 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 86 86 SW 4 9 12054 8677 2397 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 85 85 WSW 5 11 10870 7314 1034 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 82 82 W 8 13 7394 6280 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 79 79 WSW 9 16 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 81 81 WSW 11 18 5645 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 79 79 SW 11 19 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 76 76 SW 11 19 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 76 76 WSW 10 18 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 78 78 WSW 9 16 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 77 77 WSW 9 16 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 74 W 8 14 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 77 77 W 6 13 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 75 75 W 6 12 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 76 76 W 5 11 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 79 80 W 5 11 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 83 86 WNW 6 12 12054 8677 2397 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 78 83 WNW 6 12 8843 6280 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 80 85 NW 6 12 10870 7314 1034 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 86 92 WNW 6 12 15108 15108 8828 White 11
1 PM Mon 80 86 WNW 5 11 12054 8677 2397 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 82 88 W 5 11 14270 10831 4551 White 7
3 PM Mon 81 86 W 8 13 12054 8677 2397 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 87 90 W 10 17 14690 12885 6605 White 9
5 PM Mon 82 84 WSW 13 23 10336 6280 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 86 87 WSW 14 24 14061 10147 3867 White 6
7 PM Mon 86 86 WSW 14 25 12054 8677 2397 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 78 78 WSW 16 25 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 76 76 WSW 16 26 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 76 76 WSW 16 26 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 76 76 WSW 13 21 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 75 75 W 8 14 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 75 75 W 8 14 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 74 74 W 12 20 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 74 74 W 8 13 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 73 73 W 8 13 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 73 73 W 10 17 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 74 74 W 10 17 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 76 76 W 10 17 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 78 79 W 10 17 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 79 82 W 10 17 7394 6280 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 80 85 W 10 17 10870 7314 1034 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 82 89 W 12 20 14481 11767 5487 White 8
12 Noon Tue 84 92 W 12 20 15108 15108 8828 White 11
1 PM Tue 86 94 W 12 20 15526 15526 9246 White 13
2 PM Tue 87 95 W 13 23 15734 15734 9454 White 14
3 PM Tue 87 93 W 13 23 15317 15317 9037 White 12
4 PM Tue 88 92 W 13 23 15108 15108 8828 White 11
5 PM Tue 87 90 W 13 23 14690 12885 6605 White 9
6 PM Tue 85 86 W 13 23 12054 8677 2397 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 84 84 W 13 23 10336 6280 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 82 82 WSW 13 21 7394 6280 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 79 79 WSW 13 21 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 77 77 WSW 13 21 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 76 76 WSW 11 19 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 WSW 11 19 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 75 75 WSW 11 19 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 74 74 WSW 10 18 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 74 74 WSW 10 18 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 73 73 WSW 10 18 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 73 73 WSW 10 17 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 74 74 WSW 10 17 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 76 76 WSW 10 17 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 78 79 W 9 16 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 79 82 W 9 16 7394 6280 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 80 85 W 9 16 10870 7314 1034 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 82 88 W 10 18 14270 10831 4551 White 7
12 Noon Wed 84 92 W 10 18 15108 15108 8828 White 11
1 PM Wed 86 94 W 10 18 15526 15526 9246 White 13
2 PM Wed 88 95 W 12 20 15734 15734 9454 White 14
3 PM Wed 89 95 W 12 20 15734 15734 9454 White 14
4 PM Wed 88 92 W 12 20 15108 15108 8828 White 11
5 PM Wed 88 90 W 13 21 14690 12885 6605 White 9
6 PM Wed 87 88 W 13 21 14270 10831 4551 White 7
7 PM Wed 84 84 W 13 21 10336 6280 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 82 82 WSW 11 19 7394 6280 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 80 80 WSW 11 19 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 78 78 WSW 11 19 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 76 76 W 10 17 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 W 10 17 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 75 75 W 10 17 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 75 75 W 9 16 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 74 74 W 9 16 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 73 73 W 9 16 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 73 73 W 8 14 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 74 74 W 8 14 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 76 76 W 8 14 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 78 79 W 5 12 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 80 83 W 5 12 8843 6280 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 81 86 W 5 12 12054 8677 2397 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 83 89 NW 6 13 14481 11767 5487 White 8
12 Noon Thu 85 93 NW 6 13 15317 15317 9037 White 12
1 PM Thu 87 95 NW 6 13 15734 15734 9454 White 14
2 PM Thu 89 96 W 9 16 15941 15941 9661 White 15
3 PM Thu 90 96 W 9 16 15941 15941 9661 White 15
4 PM Thu 89 93 W 9 16 15317 15317 9037 White 12
5 PM Thu 89 91 W 10 18 14899 14899 8619 White 10
6 PM Thu 88 89 W 10 18 14481 11767 5487 White 8
7 PM Thu 86 86 W 10 18 12054 8677 2397 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 83 83 W 10 17 8843 6280 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 81 81 W 10 17 5645 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 79 79 W 10 17 5000 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst