Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.8766103497, -116.848377211, 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 E 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 ENE 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 ENE 2 6 945 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 ENE 2 6 945 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 E 1 5 945 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 E 1 5 945 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 E 1 5 945 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 E 2 5 945 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 E 1 5 945 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 56 ESE 1 5 945 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 63 W 3 8 991 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 69 WSW 4 9 1576 1500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 69 71 WSW 4 10 1848 1500 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 71 72 WSW 5 12 1960 1573 73 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 71 72 WSW 6 12 1960 1573 73 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 70 70 WSW 6 12 1728 1500 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 65 65 WSW 6 12 1160 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 59 59 SW 4 10 945 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 54 SSW 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 51 S 2 6 945 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 S 1 5 945 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 ESE 1 5 945 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 E 1 5 945 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 E 2 5 945 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 ESE 2 6 945 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 SE 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 SE 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 SSE 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 SSE 3 6 945 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 SSE 3 6 945 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 SE 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 ESE 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 SSE 3 9 945 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 52 SSW 4 10 945 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 62 WSW 5 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 68 WSW 8 14 1423 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 69 72 SW 10 17 1960 1573 73 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 69 71 SW 11 19 1848 1500 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 70 71 SW 11 18 1848 1500 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 68 68 SW 9 17 1423 1500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 66 66 SW 8 14 1245 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 62 SSW 6 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 58 S 5 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 55 S 4 10 945 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 SSE 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 ESE 2 6 945 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 51 E 2 5 945 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 E 2 6 945 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NE 2 6 945 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 NNE 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 NNE 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 NNE 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 NNE 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 NNE 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 NNE 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 NNE 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 N 3 8 945 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 WNW 3 9 945 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 63 W 4 9 991 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 67 W 5 10 1330 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 68 71 W 6 12 1848 1500 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 69 71 W 6 13 1848 1500 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 69 70 W 8 14 1728 1500 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 68 68 WNW 9 16 1423 1500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 66 66 WNW 9 16 1245 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 62 NW 6 13 945 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 58 NNE 5 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 55 NE 4 9 945 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 ENE 4 9 945 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 ENE 4 10 945 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 ENE 5 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 E 5 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 E 5 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 ESE 5 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 E 5 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 E 4 10 945 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 ENE 4 9 945 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 ENE 4 9 945 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 ENE 4 9 945 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 ENE 6 10 945 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 ENE 6 10 945 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 61 ENE 6 10 945 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 67 ENE 6 10 1330 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 71 ENE 6 10 1848 1500 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 72 75 ENE 6 10 2272 1956 456 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 72 74 NNE 10 13 2172 1844 344 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 73 74 NNE 10 13 2172 1844 344 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 72 72 NNE 10 13 1960 1573 73 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 70 70 NNE 9 13 1728 1500 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 66 66 NNE 9 13 1245 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 62 62 NNE 9 13 945 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 58 ENE 6 10 945 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 ENE 6 10 945 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 ENE 6 10 945 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 ENE 6 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 ENE 6 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 ENE 6 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 E 6 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 E 6 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 E 6 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 E 8 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 E 8 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 E 8 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 E 8 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 E 8 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 62 E 8 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 68 E 10 14 1423 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 72 E 10 14 1960 1573 73 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 73 75 E 10 14 2272 1956 456 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 74 76 ENE 12 18 2371 2068 568 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 74 75 ENE 12 18 2272 1956 456 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 72 72 ENE 12 18 1960 1573 73 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 70 70 ENE 10 17 1728 1500 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 66 66 ENE 10 17 1245 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 63 63 ENE 10 17 991 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 60 ENE 8 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 58 ENE 8 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 ENE 8 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 ENE 9 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 ENE 9 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 ENE 9 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 E 9 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 E 9 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 E 9 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 ENE 8 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 8 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 8 12 945 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 E 9 13 945 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 E 9 13 945 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 E 9 13 991 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 67 E 10 13 1330 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 72 E 10 13 1960 1573 73 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 72 74 E 10 13 2172 1844 344 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 73 75 ENE 11 17 2272 1956 456 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 73 74 ENE 11 17 2172 1844 344 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 72 72 ENE 11 17 1960 1573 73 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 70 70 ENE 10 14 1728 1500 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 67 67 ENE 10 14 1330 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 63 63 ENE 10 14 991 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 60 ENE 8 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 ENE 8 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 ENE 8 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 E 8 11 945 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst