Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2359889702, -117.312661227, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 44 42 NNE 16 25 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 42 NNE 14 24 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 43 NNE 16 25 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 42 NNE 16 25 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 42 NNE 16 25 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 43 NNE 14 24 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 42 NNE 12 21 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 42 NNE 11 19 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 43 NNE 11 18 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 46 NNE 10 18 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 51 NNE 6 12 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 53 N 3 9 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 55 54 N 1 5 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 55 54 SSW 2 6 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 55 54 SSW 4 9 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 55 53 SSW 4 10 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 53 51 S 3 9 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 50 48 S 4 9 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 50 48 SSE 4 9 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 48 SE 4 10 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 48 SE 5 10 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 48 SE 5 11 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 47 SE 5 12 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 47 SE 5 11 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 46 SE 5 11 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 46 SE 5 11 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 45 SE 5 10 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 45 SE 5 10 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 44 SE 5 10 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 43 ESE 5 10 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 42 ESE 5 10 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 42 ESE 4 10 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 44 ESE 3 8 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 47 SE 2 6 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 52 SE 1 4 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 54 SSE 2 5 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 55 S 3 8 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 54 54 SSW 3 9 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 54 53 WSW 3 9 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 53 51 NNW 3 8 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 51 49 N 3 8 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 48 46 NNE 3 8 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 44 NNE 3 9 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 43 NNE 5 11 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 42 NNE 9 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 41 NNE 12 21 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 41 N 17 26 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 43 41 N 19 31 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 41 NNE 21 33 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 41 NNE 23 35 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 41 NNE 23 35 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 41 NNE 23 34 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 41 N 21 34 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 40 N 21 33 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 39 N 21 33 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 39 N 21 33 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 41 N 21 34 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 44 N 23 35 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 47 N 24 36 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 49 N 24 36 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 50 N 24 36 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 50 N 24 36 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 50 49 N 24 36 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 50 48 N 24 36 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 48 46 N 23 35 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 47 45 NNE 21 34 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 45 43 NNE 20 33 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 44 42 NNE 20 31 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 44 42 NNE 19 31 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 42 NNE 19 31 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 42 NNE 19 31 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 42 NNE 19 31 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 41 NNE 19 31 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 41 NNE 19 29 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 41 NNE 18 29 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 41 NNE 18 28 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 40 NNE 18 28 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 39 NNE 18 28 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 39 NNE 18 28 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 39 NNE 11 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 41 NNE 11 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 44 NNE 11 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 47 NNE 10 14 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 50 NNE 10 14 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 52 NNE 10 14 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 52 52 N 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 52 51 N 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 51 49 N 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 50 48 N 10 14 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 48 46 N 10 14 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 47 45 N 10 14 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 45 43 NNE 9 12 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 43 NNE 9 12 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 42 NNE 9 12 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 42 NNE 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 42 NNE 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 42 NNE 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 42 NNE 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 41 NNE 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 41 NNE 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 41 NNE 11 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 41 NNE 11 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 41 NNE 11 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 41 NNE 11 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 42 NNE 11 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 45 NNE 11 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 47 NNE 10 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 50 NNE 10 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 52 52 NNE 10 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 53 NNE 12 18 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 53 52 NNE 12 18 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 52 50 NNE 12 18 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 50 48 NNE 10 14 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 49 47 NNE 10 14 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 47 45 NNE 10 14 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 44 NNE 9 13 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 44 NNE 9 13 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 44 NNE 9 13 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 44 NNE 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 44 NNE 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 44 NNE 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 43 NNE 11 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 44 NNE 11 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 44 NNE 11 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 44 NNE 11 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 43 NNE 11 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 43 NNE 11 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 43 NNE 11 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 44 NNE 11 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 46 NNE 11 17 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 48 NNE 11 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 51 NNE 11 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 52 NNE 11 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 53 53 NNE 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 53 52 NNE 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 52 50 NNE 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 51 49 N 10 14 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 47 N 10 14 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 46 N 10 14 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 45 NNE 9 12 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 44 NNE 9 12 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 45 NNE 9 12 3780 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 45 NNE 10 16 3780 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst