Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1898, -118.0876, 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 31 MAY 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 SW 6 8 4781 3732 305 White 5
1 AM Wed 54 54 SW 6 8 4781 3732 305 White 5
2 AM Wed 54 54 SW 4 5 4781 3732 305 White 5
3 AM Wed 54 54 SW 4 5 4781 3732 305 White 5
4 AM Wed 54 54 SW 4 5 4781 3732 305 White 5
5 AM Wed 54 54 SW 4 5 4781 3732 305 White 5
6 AM Wed 54 54 SW 4 5 4781 3732 305 White 5
7 AM Wed 54 54 SW 4 5 4781 3732 305 White 5
8 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 5 6 4998 4168 741 White 6
9 AM Wed 56 56 SSW 5 6 5213 4573 1146 White 7
10 AM Wed 56 57 SSW 5 6 5427 5165 1738 White 8
11 AM Wed 56 60 SSW 6 8 5771 5622 2195 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 57 62 SSW 6 8 5868 5718 2291 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 57 62 SSW 6 8 5868 5718 2291 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 57 61 SSW 9 11 5820 5670 2243 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 57 61 SSW 9 11 5820 5670 2243 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 56 58 SSW 9 11 5643 5526 2099 White 9
5 PM Wed 56 57 S 8 9 5427 5165 1738 White 8
6 PM Wed 54 54 S 8 9 4781 3732 305 White 5
7 PM Wed 52 52 S 8 9 4194 3427 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 51 51 S 6 8 3760 3427 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 51 51 S 6 8 3760 3427 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 52 52 S 6 8 4194 3427 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 51 51 SSW 5 6 3760 3427 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 SSW 5 6 3760 3427 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 51 51 SSW 5 6 3760 3427 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 51 51 S 5 6 3760 3427 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 51 51 S 5 6 3760 3427 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 51 51 S 5 6 3760 3427 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 50 50 SSW 4 5 3189 3427 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 50 50 SSW 4 5 3189 3427 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 51 51 SSW 4 5 3760 3427 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 51 51 S 5 6 3760 3427 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 53 53 S 5 6 4546 3427 0 White 4
10 AM Thu 54 55 S 5 6 4998 4168 741 White 6
11 AM Thu 55 59 SSW 6 8 5723 5574 2147 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 55 59 SSW 6 8 5723 5574 2147 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 57 62 SSW 6 8 5868 5718 2291 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 59 63 SSW 6 8 5916 5766 2339 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 61 64 SSW 6 8 5964 5814 2387 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 61 63 SSW 6 8 5916 5766 2339 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 60 61 SSW 6 8 5820 5670 2243 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 58 58 SSW 6 8 5643 5526 2099 White 9
7 PM Thu 56 56 SSW 6 8 5213 4573 1146 White 7
8 PM Thu 54 54 S 5 6 4781 3732 305 White 5
9 PM Thu 52 52 S 5 6 4194 3427 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 52 52 S 5 6 4194 3427 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 52 52 S 4 5 4194 3427 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 S 4 5 4194 3427 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 52 52 S 4 5 4194 3427 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 52 52 SSW 4 5 4194 3427 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 52 52 SSW 4 5 4194 3427 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 52 52 SSW 4 5 4194 3427 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 52 52 S 3 5 4194 3427 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 53 53 S 3 5 4546 3427 0 White 4
7 AM Fri 53 53 S 3 5 4546 3427 0 White 4
8 AM Fri 55 56 SSW 5 8 5213 4573 1146 White 7
9 AM Fri 56 58 SSW 5 8 5643 5526 2099 White 9
10 AM Fri 58 61 SSW 5 8 5820 5670 2243 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 59 65 SW 6 9 6016 5862 2435 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 61 68 SW 6 9 6699 6008 2581 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 63 70 SW 6 9 7269 6127 2700 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 64 70 SW 9 12 7269 6127 2700 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 65 70 SW 9 12 7269 6127 2700 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 66 69 SW 9 12 7008 6068 2641 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 65 67 SW 6 11 6135 5958 2531 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 63 63 SW 6 11 5916 5766 2339 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 61 61 SW 6 11 5820 5670 2243 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 58 58 SSW 4 6 5643 5526 2099 White 9
9 PM Fri 57 57 SSW 4 6 5427 5165 1738 White 8
10 PM Fri 56 56 SSW 4 6 5213 4573 1146 White 7
11 PM Fri 56 56 S 5 8 5213 4573 1146 White 7
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 S 5 8 4998 4168 741 White 6
1 AM Sat 55 55 S 5 8 4998 4168 741 White 6
2 AM Sat 55 55 NNE 4 6 4998 4168 741 White 6
3 AM Sat 54 54 NNE 4 6 4781 3732 305 White 5
4 AM Sat 54 54 NNE 4 6 4781 3732 305 White 5
5 AM Sat 55 55 SW 4 6 4998 4168 741 White 6
6 AM Sat 56 56 SW 4 6 5213 4573 1146 White 7
7 AM Sat 58 58 SW 4 6 5643 5526 2099 White 9
8 AM Sat 60 61 SSW 6 9 5820 5670 2243 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 62 65 SSW 6 9 6016 5862 2435 Blue 16
10 AM Sat 64 69 SSW 6 9 7008 6068 2641 Blue 20
11 AM Sat 66 72 SSW 9 12 7617 6965 3538 Blue 23
12 Noon Sat 68 75 SSW 9 12 8345 7586 4159 Blue 26
1 PM Sat 70 77 SSW 9 12 9700 8187 4760 White 28
2 PM Sat 71 78 SW 9 13 9929 8318 4891 White 29
3 PM Sat 72 78 SW 9 13 9929 8318 4891 White 29
4 PM Sat 72 76 SW 9 13 8807 7927 4500 Blue 27
5 PM Sat 70 72 SSW 6 11 7617 6965 3538 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 67 68 SSW 6 11 6699 6008 2581 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 64 64 SSW 6 11 5964 5814 2387 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 61 61 S 5 9 5820 5670 2243 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 60 60 S 5 9 5771 5622 2195 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 59 59 S 5 9 5723 5574 2147 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 59 59 SSE 5 8 5723 5574 2147 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 SSE 5 8 5643 5526 2099 White 9
1 AM Sun 57 57 SSE 5 8 5427 5165 1738 White 8
2 AM Sun 57 57 ESE 4 6 5427 5165 1738 White 8
3 AM Sun 56 56 ESE 4 6 5213 4573 1146 White 7
4 AM Sun 56 56 ESE 4 6 5213 4573 1146 White 7
5 AM Sun 57 57 SSW 4 6 5427 5165 1738 White 8
6 AM Sun 58 58 SSW 4 6 5643 5526 2099 White 9
7 AM Sun 60 60 SSW 4 6 5771 5622 2195 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 63 64 SSW 6 9 5964 5814 2387 Blue 15
9 AM Sun 65 67 SSW 6 9 6135 5958 2531 Blue 18
10 AM Sun 67 71 SSW 6 9 7443 6648 3221 Blue 22
11 AM Sun 69 74 SSW 9 12 8214 7413 3986 Blue 25
12 Noon Sun 70 76 SSW 9 12 8807 7927 4500 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 72 78 SSW 9 12 9929 8318 4891 White 29
2 PM Sun 73 79 SSW 9 14 10140 8634 5207 White 30
3 PM Sun 73 78 SSW 9 14 9929 8318 4891 White 29
4 PM Sun 73 76 SSW 9 14 8807 7927 4500 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 71 73 SSW 8 12 7984 7234 3807 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 69 69 SSW 8 12 7008 6068 2641 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 65 65 SSW 8 12 6016 5862 2435 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 62 62 S 6 11 5868 5718 2291 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 59 59 S 6 11 5723 5574 2147 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 58 58 S 6 11 5643 5526 2099 White 9
11 PM Sun 57 57 S 5 9 5427 5165 1738 White 8
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 S 5 9 5427 5165 1738 White 8
1 AM Mon 57 57 S 5 9 5427 5165 1738 White 8
2 AM Mon 57 57 S 4 6 5427 5165 1738 White 8
3 AM Mon 57 57 S 4 6 5427 5165 1738 White 8
4 AM Mon 56 56 S 4 6 5213 4573 1146 White 7
5 AM Mon 56 56 S 5 8 5213 4573 1146 White 7
6 AM Mon 56 56 S 5 8 5213 4573 1146 White 7
7 AM Mon 57 57 S 5 8 5427 5165 1738 White 8
8 AM Mon 57 57 SSW 6 9 5427 5165 1738 White 8
9 AM Mon 59 60 SSW 6 9 5771 5622 2195 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 60 61 SSW 6 9 5820 5670 2243 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 62 64 SSW 9 12 5964 5814 2387 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 63 65 SSW 9 12 6016 5862 2435 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 64 66 SSW 9 12 6075 5910 2483 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 66 68 SSW 9 13 6699 6008 2581 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 67 69 SSW 9 13 7008 6068 2641 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 67 68 SSW 9 13 6699 6008 2581 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 66 66 SSW 9 13 6075 5910 2483 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 63 63 SSW 9 13 5916 5766 2339 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 59 59 SSW 9 13 5723 5574 2147 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 56 56 S 8 12 5213 4573 1146 White 7
9 PM Mon 54 54 S 8 12 4781 3732 305 White 5
10 PM Mon 54 54 S 8 12 4781 3732 305 White 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst