Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1898, -118.0876, 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 84 84 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 82 82 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 84 84 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 82 82 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 82 82 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 82 82 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 82 82 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 81 81 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 82 82 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 85 86 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 86 88 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 87 91 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 87 92 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 88 93 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 88 92 SW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 88 91 SW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 87 89 SW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 83 83 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 81 81 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 78 78 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 77 77 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 77 77 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 76 76 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 76 76 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 76 76 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 75 75 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 75 75 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 74 74 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 74 74 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 73 73 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 73 73 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 73 73 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 74 74 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 79 80 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 82 84 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 83 87 S 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 86 91 S 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 87 92 S 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 87 91 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 86 89 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 84 86 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 81 81 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 78 78 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 75 75 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 73 73 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 72 72 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 72 72 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 73 73 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 73 73 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 73 73 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 72 72 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 71 71 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 71 71 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 70 70 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 70 70 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 72 72 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 75 76 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 79 81 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 82 86 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 85 90 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 86 91 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 86 90 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 86 89 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 84 86 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 82 82 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 78 78 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 74 74 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 71 71 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 71 71 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 71 71 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 72 72 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 72 72 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 71 71 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 71 71 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 70 70 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 70 70 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 69 69 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 69 69 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 70 70 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 72 72 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 75 76 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 78 80 S 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 81 84 S 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 83 86 S 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 85 88 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 85 87 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 84 85 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 81 81 SSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 77 77 SSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 72 72 SSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 69 69 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 69 69 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 71 71 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 72 72 SE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 SE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 72 72 SE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 71 71 ENE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 70 70 ENE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 70 70 ENE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 69 69 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 69 69 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 69 69 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 69 69 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 71 71 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 73 74 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 75 78 SSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 79 83 SSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 82 86 SSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 84 88 SSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 84 87 SSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 81 82 SSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 78 78 SW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 74 74 SW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 71 71 SW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 69 69 SW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 69 69 SW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 70 70 SW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 71 71 E 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 E 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 70 70 E 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 69 69 ENE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 68 68 ENE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 68 68 ENE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 67 67 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 67 67 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 68 68 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 70 70 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 72 73 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 74 76 NE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 77 80 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 80 84 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 81 85 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 82 86 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 81 84 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 79 80 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 77 77 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 74 74 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 71 71 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 69 69 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 69 69 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 69 69 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst