Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1898, -118.0876, 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 NNW 8 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 NNW 8 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 NNW 8 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 NNW 8 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 N 3 4 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 N 3 4 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 N 3 4 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 N 3 4 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 N 3 4 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 57 N 3 4 1864 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 61 WSW 3 4 2589 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 62 WSW 3 4 2728 3427 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 62 66 WSW 3 4 3721 3427 0 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 62 65 WSW 5 6 3463 3427 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 63 66 WSW 5 6 3721 3427 0 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 63 64 WSW 5 6 3204 3427 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 5 6 2728 3427 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 58 58 WSW 5 6 2047 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 56 WSW 5 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 WNW 4 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 WNW 4 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 WNW 4 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 N 3 4 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 N 3 4 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 N 3 4 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 N 3 4 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 N 3 4 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 N 3 4 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 N 3 4 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 N 3 4 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 N 3 4 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 NNE 4 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 NNE 4 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 55 NNE 4 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 57 NNE 6 8 1864 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 61 NNE 6 8 2589 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 63 NNE 6 8 2944 3427 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 61 64 NNW 4 6 3204 3427 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 62 64 NNW 4 6 3204 3427 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 62 63 NNW 4 6 2944 3427 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 62 62 W 3 5 2728 3427 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 59 59 W 3 5 2230 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 57 W 3 5 1864 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 55 N 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 N 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 N 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 NNE 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 NNE 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NNE 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 NNE 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 NNE 3 5 2413 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 65 SW 3 5 3463 3427 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 65 68 SW 3 5 4417 3453 26 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 66 69 SW 3 5 4637 3709 282 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 67 70 SW 4 6 4771 3980 553 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 67 69 SW 4 6 4637 3709 282 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 67 68 SW 4 6 4417 3453 26 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 65 65 SW 4 6 3463 3427 0 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 63 63 SW 4 6 2944 3427 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 60 60 SW 4 6 2413 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 57 W 2 3 1864 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 W 2 3 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 W 2 3 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 N 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 N 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 N 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 N 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 N 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 N 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 N 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 N 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 N 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 N 5 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 N 5 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 56 N 5 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 62 NNE 5 9 2728 3427 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 62 66 NNE 5 9 3721 3427 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 64 68 NNE 5 9 4417 3453 26 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 66 70 N 5 9 4771 3980 553 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 67 70 N 5 9 4771 3980 553 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 67 68 N 5 9 4417 3453 26 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 66 66 NNW 4 6 3721 3427 0 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 63 63 NNW 4 6 2944 3427 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 59 59 NNW 4 6 2230 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 NNE 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 55 NNE 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 NNE 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 NE 5 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 NE 5 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 NE 5 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 NE 5 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 NE 5 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 NE 5 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 NE 5 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 NE 5 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 NE 5 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 NE 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 NE 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 59 NE 4 6 2230 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 65 NE 4 6 3463 3427 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 65 69 NE 4 6 4637 3709 282 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 66 70 NE 4 6 4771 3980 553 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 67 71 NE 4 6 4956 4401 974 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 68 71 NE 4 6 4956 4401 974 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 68 69 NE 4 6 4637 3709 282 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 67 67 N 3 5 3998 3427 0 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 64 64 N 3 5 3204 3427 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 60 60 N 3 5 2413 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 57 NE 3 5 1864 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 NE 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 NE 3 5 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 NNE 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 NNE 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 NNE 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 NNE 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 NNE 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 NNE 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 NE 5 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 NE 5 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 NE 5 9 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 NE 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 NE 4 6 1773 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 61 NE 4 6 2589 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 67 ENE 4 6 3998 3427 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 67 71 ENE 4 6 4956 4401 974 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 69 73 ENE 4 6 5557 4760 1333 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 70 74 SSW 3 5 5858 4930 1503 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 71 74 SSW 3 5 5858 4930 1503 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 71 72 SSW 3 5 5258 4627 1200 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 70 70 SW 2 3 4771 3980 553 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 67 67 SW 2 3 3998 3427 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 63 63 SW 2 3 2944 3427 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 60 60 NNE 3 5 2413 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 NNE 3 5 2230 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 NNE 3 5 2230 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 NNE 3 5 2230 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst