Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1898, -118.0876, 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 ENE 0 0 3142 3427 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 51 51 NE 1 2 3142 3427 0 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 51 51 ENE 1 2 3142 3427 0 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 49 49 ENE 1 2 3012 3427 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 50 50 E 2 2 3077 3427 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 48 48 ENE 1 1 2947 3427 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 51 51 NE 1 2 3142 3427 0 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 51 51 E 2 2 3142 3427 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 50 50 E 2 2 3077 3427 0 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 51 51 ESE 2 2 3142 3427 0 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 52 53 SSE 4 4 3272 3427 0 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 54 56 SSE 4 5 4593 3427 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 53 54 S 5 6 3399 3427 0 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 53 54 S 6 7 3399 3427 0 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 56 57 S 7 8 4791 3427 0 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 55 55 SSW 7 8 4200 3427 0 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 53 53 S 6 7 3272 3427 0 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 52 52 S 5 6 3207 3427 0 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 50 50 S 4 6 3077 3427 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 49 49 SSE 4 5 3012 3427 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 49 49 SSE 4 6 3012 3427 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 49 49 SSE 4 5 3012 3427 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 48 48 SSE 4 5 2947 3427 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 48 48 S 4 5 2947 3427 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 SSE 4 4 2947 3427 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 48 48 SSE 4 5 2947 3427 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 46 46 SE 5 6 2574 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 SSE 5 6 2882 3427 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 47 47 SSE 5 6 2882 3427 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 45 45 SSE 4 6 2107 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 SSE 4 5 2882 3427 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 49 49 SSE 4 5 3012 3427 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 46 46 SSE 4 4 2574 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 SSE 4 5 3077 3427 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 50 50 SE 4 5 3077 3427 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 46 46 SE 5 5 2574 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 52 SSE 5 6 3207 3427 0 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 53 53 SSE 6 6 3272 3427 0 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 47 47 SSE 5 6 2882 3427 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 48 48 SSE 5 6 2947 3427 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 39 39 S 4 9 646 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 SSW 4 8 2107 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 39 39 SW 5 12 646 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 38 38 SW 6 13 646 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 SW 4 10 646 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 37 SSW 5 10 646 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 37 37 SSW 4 8 646 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 S 4 9 1143 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 S 4 8 646 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 S 2 6 646 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 ESE 4 8 1631 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 SE 3 6 646 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 ESE 4 8 646 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 SE 2 5 1631 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 SE 3 6 1143 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 SE 3 3 3142 3427 0 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 48 48 E 3 3 2947 3427 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 51 51 ESE 3 3 3142 3427 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 52 52 ESE 3 3 3207 3427 0 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 49 49 E 3 3 3012 3427 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 56 56 ESE 3 4 4593 3427 0 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 58 58 SSE 4 4 4855 4130 703 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 51 51 S 4 4 3142 3427 0 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 61 61 S 2 3 5187 4850 1423 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 57 57 SSW 2 3 4791 3427 0 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 52 52 SW 1 1 3207 3427 0 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 56 56 NW 1 1 4593 3427 0 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 53 53 N 2 3 3272 3427 0 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 53 53 N 2 3 3272 3427 0 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 51 51 NNE 3 5 3142 3427 0 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 51 51 NNE 3 5 3142 3427 0 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 55 55 NNE 2 4 4200 3427 0 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst