Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1898, -118.0876, 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 NNE 6 8 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 N 4 5 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 N 4 5 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 N 4 5 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 N 4 5 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 N 4 5 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 N 4 5 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 N 4 5 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 59 N 4 5 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 60 N 4 5 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 63 WSW 5 6 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 66 67 WSW 5 6 2171 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 69 70 WSW 5 6 2908 3427 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 69 70 SW 5 6 2908 3427 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 69 70 SW 5 6 2908 3427 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 68 68 SW 5 6 2272 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 66 66 SW 5 6 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 64 64 SW 5 6 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 63 63 SW 5 6 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 63 63 SE 2 2 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 61 SE 2 2 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 SE 2 2 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 NNW 3 4 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 NNW 3 4 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 NNW 3 4 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 ENE 3 4 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 ENE 3 4 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 ENE 3 4 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NNE 3 4 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 NNE 3 4 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 NNE 3 4 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 ENE 5 6 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 ENE 5 6 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 59 ENE 5 6 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 63 SE 6 8 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 65 SE 6 8 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 67 SE 6 8 2171 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 67 S 6 8 2171 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 66 S 6 8 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 65 65 S 6 8 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 64 64 SSW 6 8 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 59 59 SSW 6 8 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 58 SSW 6 8 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 56 NE 4 5 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 NE 4 5 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 NE 4 5 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 NE 6 8 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 NE 6 8 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 NE 6 8 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 NNE 6 8 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 NNE 6 8 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 NNE 6 8 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 NE 8 11 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 NE 8 11 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 NE 8 11 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 NE 16 23 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 NE 16 23 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 NE 16 23 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 62 N 13 19 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 65 N 13 19 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 65 67 N 13 19 2171 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 66 68 N 13 19 2272 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 67 N 13 19 2171 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 66 66 N 13 19 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 64 NNE 11 16 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 60 NNE 11 16 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 58 NNE 11 16 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 NNE 10 14 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 NNE 10 14 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 NNE 10 14 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 NNE 10 14 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 NNE 10 14 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 NNE 10 14 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 NNE 9 13 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 NNE 9 13 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 NNE 9 13 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 60 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 64 NNE 8 11 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 67 NNE 8 11 2171 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 69 NNE 8 11 2373 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 68 70 N 8 12 2908 3427 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 68 69 N 8 12 2373 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 67 67 N 8 12 2171 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 64 NNW 8 11 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 61 NNW 8 11 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 58 NNW 8 11 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 55 NNE 6 10 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 NNE 6 10 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 NNE 6 10 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 58 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 62 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 66 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 68 NNE 8 12 2272 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 68 69 NE 9 12 2373 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 68 69 NE 9 12 2373 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 66 NE 9 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 64 N 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 61 N 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 58 N 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 56 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 NNE 9 13 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 NNE 9 13 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 NNE 9 13 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 NNE 9 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 NNE 9 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 NNE 9 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 NNE 9 13 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 NNE 9 13 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 60 NNE 9 13 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 65 NE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 67 NE 8 12 2171 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 69 NE 8 12 2373 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 69 70 NE 8 12 2908 3427 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 69 70 NE 8 12 2908 3427 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 67 67 NE 8 12 2171 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 64 64 N 8 11 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 62 N 8 11 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 59 N 8 11 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 57 NNE 6 11 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 NNE 6 11 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 NNE 6 11 2080 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 NNE 8 12 2080 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst