Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.7747, -116.477, 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 NE 6 12 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 NE 5 11 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 ENE 4 9 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 NE 2 5 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 ENE 2 5 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 NE 1 2 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 NNE 0 1 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 N 2 6 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 E 2 4 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 56 E 2 4 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 59 ESE 2 3 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 61 SSW 2 3 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 63 63 WSW 4 6 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 64 65 WSW 4 6 4770 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 6 8 4307 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 63 63 WSW 5 7 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 60 WSW 6 8 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 56 W 4 9 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 53 53 W 4 8 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 51 W 1 3 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 W 2 5 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 WSW 3 6 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 SW 2 5 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 SW 3 6 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 W 3 6 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 W 2 5 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 SW 2 5 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 W 2 5 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 WSW 2 5 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 WSW 2 5 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 W 2 6 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 W 3 6 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 S 1 2 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 SSE 2 4 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 57 SSW 3 5 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 60 SW 5 6 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 59 62 WSW 7 8 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 59 61 WSW 8 9 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 59 60 WSW 8 9 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 59 WSW 7 8 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 57 57 WSW 7 8 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 53 53 WSW 5 6 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 WSW 4 8 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 48 WSW 2 5 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 WSW 1 3 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 S 1 2 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 ESE 0 1 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 43 43 ENE 1 2 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 ENE 1 3 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 NE 2 5 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 NE 2 6 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 NNE 3 7 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 NE 3 7 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 NE 4 8 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 NE 4 8 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 NE 5 11 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 NE 6 13 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 52 NE 6 10 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 56 NE 6 7 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 60 NE 7 8 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 62 NE 7 9 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 60 62 NE 6 8 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 60 61 NE 6 7 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 60 60 NE 5 6 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 59 59 NE 4 4 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 54 ENE 3 5 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 ENE 4 10 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 NE 5 11 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 NE 5 12 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 ENE 5 12 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 ENE 5 12 4193 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 ENE 5 11 4193 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst