Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.7747, -116.477, 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 NNW 9 16 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 NNW 10 17 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 NNW 10 17 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 NNW 9 16 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 NNW 9 16 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 NNW 8 13 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 NNW 6 13 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 NNW 6 13 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 NNW 6 13 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 58 WNW 5 10 3284 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 64 W 6 12 4830 4540 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 65 67 W 9 16 5694 4822 282 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 66 69 W 11 20 6313 5371 831 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 67 71 W 14 24 7137 5978 1438 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 66 69 W 14 24 6313 5371 831 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 66 67 W 16 25 5694 4822 282 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 64 64 W 14 24 4830 4540 0 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 58 58 WNW 14 23 3284 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 54 WNW 13 23 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 52 WNW 13 21 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 WNW 12 20 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 NW 11 19 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 NW 11 18 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 NW 11 19 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 NW 11 19 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 NW 11 19 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 NW 10 17 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 NNW 8 14 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 N 6 12 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 N 5 11 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 NNW 5 10 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 NNW 4 10 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 WNW 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 55 SSW 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 62 S 4 10 4506 4540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 62 65 SSE 5 11 5084 4540 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 65 69 ESE 6 13 6313 5371 831 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 66 69 E 8 14 6313 5371 831 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 66 68 E 8 13 6004 5068 528 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 66 67 E 6 13 5694 4822 282 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 65 65 E 6 12 5084 4540 0 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 62 62 E 6 13 4506 4540 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 57 57 ENE 8 14 3020 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 NE 9 16 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 NE 10 17 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 NE 10 17 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 NE 9 17 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 NE 9 16 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NNE 8 13 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 NNE 5 11 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 NNE 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 NE 2 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 NE 2 4 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 NE 1 4 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 1 3 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 NNE 1 3 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 N 1 4 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 NW 2 5 3809 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 67 W 2 6 5694 4822 282 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 67 70 W 3 10 6717 5671 1131 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 68 72 W 5 13 8198 6284 1744 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 68 71 W 6 16 7137 5978 1438 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 69 71 W 6 16 7137 5978 1438 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 68 69 W 6 14 6313 5371 831 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 66 66 W 5 13 5390 4684 144 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 62 62 W 5 12 4506 4540 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 58 58 W 4 10 3284 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 54 W 3 8 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 W 3 8 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 W 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 W 3 8 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 W 3 8 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 W 3 8 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 W 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 W 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 W 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 W 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 W 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 W 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 NE 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 NE 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 NE 3 6 3547 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 65 ENE 5 13 5084 4540 0 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 65 68 ENE 5 13 6004 5068 528 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 66 70 ENE 5 13 6717 5671 1131 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 66 69 NE 8 17 6313 5371 831 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 67 69 NE 8 17 6313 5371 831 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 66 67 NE 8 17 5694 4822 282 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 65 65 NE 5 13 5084 4540 0 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 61 61 NE 5 13 4109 4540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 58 58 NE 5 13 3284 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 54 NE 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 NE 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 NE 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 ENE 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 ENE 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 ENE 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 5 11 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 ENE 5 11 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 ENE 5 11 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 6 13 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 ENE 6 13 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 60 ENE 6 13 3809 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 65 ENE 11 23 5084 4540 0 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 64 68 ENE 11 23 6004 5068 528 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 66 70 ENE 11 23 6717 5671 1131 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 66 70 ENE 10 21 6717 5671 1131 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 66 69 ENE 10 21 6313 5371 831 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 66 68 ENE 10 21 6004 5068 528 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 64 64 NE 6 13 4830 4540 0 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 61 61 NE 6 13 4109 4540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 58 58 NE 6 13 3284 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 54 ENE 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 53 ENE 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 ENE 4 9 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 ENE 3 8 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 ENE 3 8 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 ENE 3 8 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 ENE 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 ENE 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 ENE 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 ENE 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 ENE 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 ENE 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 ENE 3 8 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 ENE 3 8 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 62 ENE 3 8 4506 4540 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 65 68 ENE 5 13 6004 5068 528 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 68 72 ENE 5 13 8198 6284 1744 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 69 73 ENE 5 13 8978 6672 2132 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 69 73 NNE 6 17 8978 6672 2132 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 70 73 NNE 6 17 8978 6672 2132 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 69 70 NNE 6 17 6717 5671 1131 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 68 68 NNW 5 11 6004 5068 528 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 64 64 NNW 5 11 4830 4540 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 60 60 NNW 5 11 3809 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 N 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 54 N 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 N 3 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 NE 2 5 2780 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst