Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.7747, -116.477, 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 77 77 NNE 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 77 77 NE 2 5 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 76 76 E 2 5 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 76 76 E 2 5 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 76 76 E 2 5 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 75 75 E 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 74 74 E 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 76 76 E 2 5 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 82 83 ESE 2 6 3677 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 88 91 ESE 3 8 4596 4540 0 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 91 95 SE 4 9 8457 4698 158 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 95 99 S 4 10 12843 9674 5134 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 96 100 S 4 10 16494 10737 6197 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 96 100 SSW 5 11 16494 10737 6197 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 96 100 SW 5 12 16494 10737 6197 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 93 96 WSW 8 14 9939 5429 889 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 92 94 S 11 19 7145 4592 52 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 92 93 W 6 12 5514 4540 0 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 92 92 W 5 10 4702 4540 0 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 88 88 W 4 9 4266 4540 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 83 83 W 3 8 3677 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 79 79 NW 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 77 77 NNE 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 76 76 NE 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 75 75 NE 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 74 74 ENE 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 73 73 E 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 73 73 E 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 73 73 E 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 72 72 E 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 71 71 E 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 ESE 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 78 79 SE 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 84 86 SE 3 8 4031 4540 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 87 91 SE 3 8 4596 4540 0 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 91 96 SSE 4 9 9939 5429 889 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 91 97 S 4 10 10790 6980 2440 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 93 99 SW 5 11 12843 9674 5134 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 93 98 WSW 6 12 11708 8274 3734 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 89 93 W 8 14 5514 4540 0 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 89 92 WNW 9 16 4702 4540 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 91 93 NW 9 16 5514 4540 0 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 88 88 NW 8 14 4266 4540 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 86 86 WNW 6 12 4031 4540 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 80 80 WNW 5 10 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 79 79 WNW 4 9 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 79 79 WNW 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 74 74 WNW 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 77 77 NW 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 76 76 NNW 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 NNW 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 77 77 NNW 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 74 NNW 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 70 NNW 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 74 74 NNW 2 5 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 78 78 NW 2 5 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 76 77 W 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 89 92 W 3 9 4702 4540 0 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 87 92 W 5 10 4702 4540 0 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 88 95 W 6 12 8457 4698 158 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 93 101 W 8 13 17239 11631 7091 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 90 98 W 8 14 11708 8274 3734 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 91 99 W 9 16 12843 9674 5134 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 88 94 W 10 18 7145 4592 52 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 93 97 W 11 18 10790 6980 2440 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 88 90 WNW 10 17 4490 4540 0 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 88 89 WNW 9 16 4384 4540 0 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 87 87 WNW 9 16 4149 4540 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 77 77 WNW 8 13 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 79 79 WNW 6 13 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 79 79 WNW 6 13 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 72 72 WNW 6 12 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 WNW 3 9 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 68 WNW 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 WNW 5 11 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 NW 4 9 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 70 NW 4 9 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 70 W 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 71 71 W 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 73 73 W 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 77 78 W 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 82 85 W 3 8 3913 4540 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 86 91 W 3 8 4596 4540 0 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 90 97 W 8 14 10790 6980 2440 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 93 101 W 8 14 17239 11631 7091 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 94 102 W 8 14 17616 12470 7930 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 93 101 W 10 17 17239 11631 7091 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 94 100 W 10 17 16494 10737 6197 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 93 97 W 10 17 10790 6980 2440 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 91 93 W 9 16 5514 4540 0 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 87 88 W 9 16 4266 4540 0 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 9 16 3532 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 78 78 W 5 12 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 75 75 W 5 12 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 73 73 W 5 12 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 72 W 4 9 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 W 4 9 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 W 4 9 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 W 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 W 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 W 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 W 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 72 W 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 74 W 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 78 79 W 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 82 85 W 3 8 3913 4540 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 88 93 W 3 8 5514 4540 0 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 92 98 W 8 14 11708 8274 3734 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 94 102 W 8 14 17616 12470 7930 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 95 103 W 8 14 18764 16424 11884 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 94 101 W 9 16 17239 11631 7091 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 95 101 W 9 16 17239 11631 7091 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 94 98 W 9 16 11708 8274 3734 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 92 94 W 9 16 7145 4592 52 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 88 89 W 9 16 4384 4540 0 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 84 84 W 9 16 3795 4540 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 80 80 W 5 10 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 77 77 W 5 10 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 74 74 W 5 10 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 73 W 4 9 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 W 4 9 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 72 72 W 4 9 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 W 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 W 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 71 71 W 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 71 71 W 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 73 73 W 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 75 75 W 2 6 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 79 80 W 3 8 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 84 87 W 3 8 4149 4540 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 89 94 W 3 8 7145 4592 52 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 93 100 W 6 13 16494 10737 6197 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 95 103 W 6 13 18764 16424 11884 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 96 104 W 6 13 20027 17065 12525 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 95 103 W 9 16 18764 16424 11884 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 96 102 W 9 16 17616 12470 7930 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 95 99 W 9 16 12843 9674 5134 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 93 95 W 8 14 8457 4698 158 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 89 90 W 8 14 4490 4540 0 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 85 85 W 8 14 3913 4540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 81 81 W 4 9 3380 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 78 78 W 4 9 3333 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 77 77 W 4 9 3333 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst