Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.7747, -116.477, 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 NW 3 8 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 72 72 NNW 4 10 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 71 71 NNW 4 10 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 71 71 NNW 3 8 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 71 71 NNW 3 8 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 NNW 4 9 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 NNW 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 NNW 2 5 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 74 74 W 1 1 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 79 81 SSW 3 8 4073 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 85 88 SW 4 10 7452 5595 1055 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 88 93 SW 8 13 10448 8444 3904 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 89 96 WSW 9 16 12437 10309 5769 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 89 96 W 10 18 12437 10309 5769 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 91 97 W 11 19 13070 11081 6541 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 89 94 WNW 12 20 11278 9205 4665 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 88 91 WNW 12 20 9284 7377 2837 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 86 87 WNW 11 19 6840 5127 587 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 83 83 NW 11 18 4711 4540 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 79 79 NNW 9 16 3752 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 74 74 NNW 5 11 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 73 73 NNW 5 10 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 72 NNW 3 8 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 72 72 NNW 4 10 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 NNW 4 10 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 NNW 4 9 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 NNW 3 9 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 70 NNW 3 9 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 69 NNW 3 9 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 69 69 NNW 3 8 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 68 NW 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 WNW 1 5 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 71 W 1 4 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 78 W 3 8 3591 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 80 84 WSW 5 11 5137 4540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 84 89 SW 8 14 8041 6169 1629 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 86 92 WSW 9 17 9819 7958 3418 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 86 93 WSW 10 18 10448 8444 3904 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 87 93 WSW 10 18 10448 8444 3904 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 88 93 WSW 11 18 10448 8444 3904 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 86 89 W 10 18 8041 6169 1629 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 83 84 W 9 17 5137 4540 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 82 82 W 8 13 4259 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 77 77 W 5 11 3430 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 72 72 W 3 8 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 69 69 W 3 8 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 69 W 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 W 3 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 W 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 WNW 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 WNW 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 WNW 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 W 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 64 W 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 65 W 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 WSW 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 69 WSW 3 8 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 76 WSW 4 10 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 79 83 WSW 5 11 4711 4540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 83 88 WSW 8 14 7452 5595 1055 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 85 92 WSW 9 16 9819 7958 3418 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 86 93 WSW 10 17 10448 8444 3904 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 85 91 WSW 10 21 9284 7377 2837 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 85 90 WSW 10 18 8734 6774 2234 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 84 87 WSW 10 17 6840 5127 587 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 82 83 WSW 9 18 4711 4540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 78 78 WSW 6 12 3591 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 73 73 WSW 4 9 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 69 69 WSW 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 67 WSW 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 WSW 3 8 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 66 WSW 3 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 WSW 3 9 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 WSW 3 9 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 WSW 3 5 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 WSW 3 8 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 WSW 3 8 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 WSW 3 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 WSW 3 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 WSW 3 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 SW 4 9 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 73 SW 4 9 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 76 80 SW 4 9 3912 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 80 86 SW 8 17 6221 4689 149 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 83 90 SW 8 17 8734 6774 2234 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 84 91 SW 8 17 9284 7377 2837 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 84 90 WSW 10 21 8734 6774 2234 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 83 88 WSW 10 21 7452 5595 1055 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 82 85 WSW 10 21 5635 4540 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 79 80 WSW 9 19 3912 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 74 74 WSW 9 19 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 70 70 WSW 9 19 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 66 66 WSW 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 WSW 2 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 WSW 3 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 WSW 3 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 WSW 3 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 WSW 3 5 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 WSW 3 5 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 WSW 3 5 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 WSW 3 5 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 WSW 3 5 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 WSW 3 5 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 68 SW 3 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 75 SW 3 6 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 78 82 SW 3 6 4259 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 82 88 SW 8 16 7452 5595 1055 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 85 92 SW 8 16 9819 7958 3418 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 86 93 SW 8 16 10448 8444 3904 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 86 92 WSW 9 19 9819 7958 3418 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 86 91 WSW 9 19 9284 7377 2837 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 84 87 WSW 9 19 6840 5127 587 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 81 82 WSW 8 17 4259 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 77 77 WSW 8 17 3430 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 73 73 WSW 8 17 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 1 3 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 68 W 1 3 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 67 W 1 3 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 WSW 3 5 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 WSW 3 5 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 WSW 3 5 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 WSW 2 4 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 WSW 2 4 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 WSW 2 4 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 66 W 2 4 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 67 W 2 4 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 W 2 4 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 72 SW 2 5 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 79 SW 2 5 3752 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 82 85 SW 2 5 5635 4540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 86 92 SW 6 13 9819 7958 3418 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 89 96 SW 6 13 12437 10309 5769 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 90 97 SW 6 13 13070 11081 6541 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 90 96 WSW 8 17 12437 10309 5769 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 90 95 WSW 8 17 11922 9690 5150 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 88 91 WSW 8 17 9284 7377 2837 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 86 87 W 6 14 6840 5127 587 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 82 82 W 6 14 4259 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 78 78 W 6 14 3591 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 74 74 W 1 3 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 73 73 W 1 3 3302 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 72 72 W 1 3 3302 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst