Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.7747, -116.477, 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 260118/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 NE 14 23 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 NE 12 21 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 NE 12 21 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 NE 13 21 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 NE 12 20 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 NE 11 19 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NNE 10 18 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 NE 9 17 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 NE 9 16 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 61 NE 6 13 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 67 ENE 4 10 3653 4540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 70 72 E 4 9 5551 4540 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 72 74 ESE 3 8 6132 5192 652 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 73 75 SSW 2 6 6419 5531 991 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 73 74 WSW 4 9 6132 5192 652 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 73 73 WSW 4 10 5842 4540 0 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 70 70 W 3 9 4545 4540 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 63 63 WNW 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 59 NNW 5 11 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 N 5 11 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 N 6 12 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 N 6 12 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 N 6 12 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 N 6 13 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 N 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 N 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 N 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 N 9 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 N 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 N 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 NNE 6 13 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 NNE 5 11 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 E 5 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 63 SSE 4 9 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 70 SSW 3 9 4545 4540 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 67 69 SSW 4 9 3883 4540 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 68 71 SW 4 10 5247 4540 0 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 72 74 SW 5 11 6132 5192 652 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 70 71 SW 4 9 5247 4540 0 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 69 69 WSW 2 6 3883 4540 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 69 69 WSW 2 6 3883 4540 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 63 63 W 5 11 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 61 N 10 18 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 57 NE 14 24 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 58 NE 16 25 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 NE 14 25 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 NE 14 24 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 NE 13 23 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 NE 13 23 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 NE 12 21 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NE 11 19 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 NNE 10 18 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NNE 9 17 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 NNE 9 16 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 NNE 9 16 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 NNE 9 16 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 N 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 69 W 6 12 3883 4540 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 65 67 SW 4 10 3653 4540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 67 69 W 3 9 3883 4540 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 69 71 NNW 2 6 5247 4540 0 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 69 71 NNE 2 6 5247 4540 0 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 69 70 N 2 6 4545 4540 0 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 68 69 N 2 6 3883 4540 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 67 67 N 3 8 3653 4540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 64 64 N 4 9 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 64 NNE 5 11 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 NE 6 12 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 60 NE 6 12 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 NE 6 12 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 NE 6 12 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 NE 6 12 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NE 5 11 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 NE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 NE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 NE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 NE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 NE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 ENE 6 12 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 ENE 6 12 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 ENE 6 12 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 66 E 8 14 3505 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 70 E 8 14 4545 4540 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 69 71 E 8 14 5247 4540 0 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 70 72 NE 8 14 5551 4540 0 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 69 70 NE 8 14 4545 4540 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 69 70 NE 8 14 4545 4540 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 67 67 WNW 5 11 3653 4540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 62 62 WNW 5 11 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 57 WNW 5 11 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 NE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 NE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 NE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 ENE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 ENE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 ENE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 ENE 3 8 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 ENE 3 8 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 ENE 3 8 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 NE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 NE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 NE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 ENE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 ENE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 58 ENE 4 10 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 63 WSW 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 67 WSW 8 14 3653 4540 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 67 69 WSW 8 14 3883 4540 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 67 68 W 10 17 3736 4540 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 68 69 W 10 17 3883 4540 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 67 67 W 10 17 3653 4540 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 64 64 W 10 17 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 60 W 10 17 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 56 W 10 17 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 W 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 W 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 W 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 W 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 W 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 W 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 8 14 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 W 9 16 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 W 9 16 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 W 9 16 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 WSW 9 16 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 9 16 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 WSW 9 16 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 60 WSW 11 19 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 64 WSW 11 19 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 65 WSW 11 19 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 64 WSW 12 20 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 64 WSW 12 20 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 12 20 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 60 60 W 12 20 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 W 12 20 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 52 W 12 20 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 WSW 11 19 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 WSW 11 19 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 WSW 11 19 3217 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 WSW 10 17 3217 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst