Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.3333769599, -118.384563808, 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 SSE 8 9 2474 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 SSE 8 9 2474 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 SSE 5 6 2474 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 SSE 5 6 2474 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 SSE 5 6 2474 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 SSE 8 9 2474 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 SSE 8 9 2474 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 SSE 8 9 2474 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 S 10 13 3251 3540 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 48 48 S 10 13 4239 3540 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 48 49 S 10 13 4346 3776 236 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 46 46 S 13 19 3791 3540 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 46 47 S 13 19 4163 3540 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 48 49 S 13 19 4346 3776 236 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 46 46 SSW 13 19 3791 3540 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 48 48 SSW 13 19 4239 3540 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 46 46 SSW 13 19 3791 3540 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 48 48 S 11 16 4239 3540 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 49 49 S 11 16 4346 3776 236 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 48 48 S 11 16 4239 3540 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 45 45 S 6 8 3251 3540 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 45 45 S 6 8 3251 3540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 48 48 S 6 8 4239 3540 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 47 47 SW 6 8 4163 3540 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 SW 6 8 3045 3540 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 43 43 SW 6 8 2474 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 W 9 11 2474 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 W 9 11 2474 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 W 9 11 3045 3540 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 45 45 NW 10 13 3251 3540 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 45 45 NW 10 13 3251 3540 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 45 45 NW 10 13 3251 3540 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 47 48 N 17 25 4239 3540 0 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 50 52 N 17 25 5581 4336 796 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 54 58 N 17 25 6917 6226 2686 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 58 64 N 11 16 8188 7753 4213 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 60 67 N 11 16 8879 8169 4629 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 62 69 N 11 16 9640 8413 4873 Blue 26
2 PM Mon 63 70 SSW 10 13 10012 8798 5258 Blue 27
3 PM Mon 62 67 SSW 10 13 8879 8169 4629 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 62 65 SSW 10 13 8286 7928 4388 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 61 62 WSW 12 18 7974 7118 3578 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 61 61 WSW 12 18 7768 6886 3346 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 59 59 WSW 12 18 7173 6446 2906 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 54 54 WNW 8 10 6030 5210 1670 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 53 53 WNW 8 10 5806 4573 1033 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 54 54 WNW 8 10 6030 5210 1670 Blue 11
11 PM Mon 53 53 N 9 12 5806 4573 1033 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 N 9 12 5806 4573 1033 Blue 10
1 AM Tue 51 51 N 9 12 5262 4236 696 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 49 49 N 10 13 4346 3776 236 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 48 48 N 10 13 4239 3540 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 47 47 N 10 13 4163 3540 0 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 47 47 NE 12 18 4163 3540 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 46 46 NE 12 18 3791 3540 0 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 51 51 NE 12 18 5262 4236 696 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 54 55 NE 11 16 6253 5559 2019 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 56 58 NE 11 16 6917 6226 2686 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 61 65 NE 11 16 8286 7928 4388 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 65 71 WSW 11 16 10512 9177 5637 White 28
12 Noon Tue 67 74 WSW 11 16 11131 10387 6847 White 31
1 PM Tue 69 76 WSW 11 16 11494 11089 7549 Blue 33
2 PM Tue 72 79 WSW 13 19 11922 11475 7935 Blue 36
3 PM Tue 73 78 WSW 13 19 11675 11413 7873 Blue 35
4 PM Tue 73 76 WSW 13 19 11494 11089 7549 Blue 33
5 PM Tue 72 74 W 10 13 11131 10387 6847 White 31
6 PM Tue 71 71 W 10 13 10512 9177 5637 White 28
7 PM Tue 68 68 W 10 13 9262 8267 4727 Blue 25
8 PM Tue 63 63 N 8 9 8090 7476 3936 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 61 61 N 8 9 7768 6886 3346 Blue 18
10 PM Tue 59 59 N 8 9 7173 6446 2906 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 59 59 N 8 9 7173 6446 2906 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 N 8 9 7535 6666 3126 Blue 17
1 AM Wed 58 58 N 8 9 6917 6226 2686 Blue 15
2 AM Wed 56 56 NNE 8 9 6475 5782 2242 Blue 13
3 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 8 9 6253 5559 2019 Blue 12
4 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 8 9 6030 5210 1670 Blue 11
5 AM Wed 53 53 NE 9 12 5806 4573 1033 Blue 10
6 AM Wed 54 54 NE 9 12 6030 5210 1670 Blue 11
7 AM Wed 56 56 NE 9 12 6475 5782 2242 Blue 13
8 AM Wed 59 60 NE 8 12 7535 6666 3126 Blue 17
9 AM Wed 63 65 NE 8 12 8286 7928 4388 Blue 22
10 AM Wed 67 71 NE 8 12 10512 9177 5637 White 28
11 AM Wed 70 76 SW 8 12 11494 11089 7549 Blue 33
12 Noon Wed 72 79 SW 8 12 11922 11475 7935 Blue 36
1 PM Wed 74 81 SW 8 12 12332 11598 8058 Blue 38
2 PM Wed 75 82 SW 12 18 12467 11843 8303 Blue 39
3 PM Wed 76 81 SW 12 18 12332 11598 8058 Blue 38
4 PM Wed 76 79 SW 12 18 11922 11475 7935 Blue 36
5 PM Wed 75 76 SW 12 18 11494 11089 7549 Blue 33
6 PM Wed 71 71 SW 12 18 10512 9177 5637 White 28
7 PM Wed 67 67 SW 12 18 8879 8169 4629 Blue 24
8 PM Wed 63 63 WSW 9 13 8090 7476 3936 Blue 20
9 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 9 13 7535 6666 3126 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 9 13 7535 6666 3126 Blue 17
11 PM Wed 59 59 E 9 12 7173 6446 2906 Blue 16
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 E 9 12 7173 6446 2906 Blue 16
1 AM Thu 58 58 E 9 12 6917 6226 2686 Blue 15
2 AM Thu 57 57 ENE 9 12 6696 6004 2464 Blue 14
3 AM Thu 56 56 ENE 9 12 6475 5782 2242 Blue 13
4 AM Thu 55 55 ENE 9 12 6253 5559 2019 Blue 12
5 AM Thu 55 55 NE 9 13 6253 5559 2019 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 56 56 NE 9 13 6475 5782 2242 Blue 13
7 AM Thu 57 57 NE 9 13 6696 6004 2464 Blue 14
8 AM Thu 60 60 ENE 8 12 7535 6666 3126 Blue 17
9 AM Thu 63 65 ENE 8 12 8286 7928 4388 Blue 22
10 AM Thu 66 69 ENE 8 12 9640 8413 4873 Blue 26
11 AM Thu 70 74 SSW 9 12 11131 10387 6847 White 31
12 Noon Thu 72 77 SSW 9 12 11555 11259 7719 Blue 34
1 PM Thu 73 78 SSW 9 12 11675 11413 7873 Blue 35
2 PM Thu 74 79 SSW 12 18 11922 11475 7935 Blue 36
3 PM Thu 75 79 SSW 12 18 11922 11475 7935 Blue 36
4 PM Thu 75 77 SSW 12 18 11555 11259 7719 Blue 34
5 PM Thu 73 74 SW 12 18 11131 10387 6847 White 31
6 PM Thu 70 70 SW 12 18 10012 8798 5258 Blue 27
7 PM Thu 65 65 SW 12 18 8286 7928 4388 Blue 22
8 PM Thu 62 62 SSW 9 14 7974 7118 3578 Blue 19
9 PM Thu 60 60 SSW 9 14 7535 6666 3126 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 59 59 SSW 9 14 7173 6446 2906 Blue 16
11 PM Thu 58 58 S 9 13 6917 6226 2686 Blue 15
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 S 9 13 6696 6004 2464 Blue 14
1 AM Fri 55 55 S 9 13 6253 5559 2019 Blue 12
2 AM Fri 54 54 S 8 12 6030 5210 1670 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 53 53 S 8 12 5806 4573 1033 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 53 53 S 8 12 5806 4573 1033 Blue 10
5 AM Fri 53 53 SSE 9 12 5806 4573 1033 Blue 10
6 AM Fri 53 53 SSE 9 12 5806 4573 1033 Blue 10
7 AM Fri 54 54 SSE 9 12 6030 5210 1670 Blue 11
8 AM Fri 55 55 S 8 12 6253 5559 2019 Blue 12
9 AM Fri 58 59 S 8 12 7173 6446 2906 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 62 65 S 8 12 8286 7928 4388 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 65 70 SSW 10 14 10012 8798 5258 Blue 27
12 Noon Fri 68 74 SSW 10 14 11131 10387 6847 White 31
1 PM Fri 70 77 SSW 10 14 11555 11259 7719 Blue 34
2 PM Fri 70 76 SW 13 20 11494 11089 7549 Blue 33
3 PM Fri 71 76 SW 13 20 11494 11089 7549 Blue 33
4 PM Fri 71 74 SW 13 20 11131 10387 6847 White 31
5 PM Fri 69 70 SW 12 19 10012 8798 5258 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 67 67 SW 12 19 8879 8169 4629 Blue 24
7 PM Fri 63 63 SW 12 19 8090 7476 3936 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 60 60 SSW 11 17 7535 6666 3126 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 58 58 SSW 11 17 6917 6226 2686 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 56 56 SSW 11 17 6475 5782 2242 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst