Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.3333769599, -118.384563808, 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NE 13 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 ENE 11 16 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 ENE 11 16 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 ENE 11 16 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 NE 10 13 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 NE 10 13 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 NE 10 13 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 ENE 8 9 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 ENE 8 9 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 59 ENE 8 9 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 64 SE 8 9 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 65 66 SE 8 9 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 65 66 SE 8 9 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 67 68 S 6 8 2919 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 66 67 S 6 8 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 66 S 6 8 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 64 64 S 6 8 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 62 S 6 8 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 61 S 6 8 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 61 61 E 2 2 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 60 E 2 2 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 E 2 2 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 ENE 8 9 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 ENE 8 9 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 ENE 8 9 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 ENE 3 4 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 ENE 3 4 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 ENE 3 4 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 NE 4 5 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 NE 4 5 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 NE 4 5 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 ENE 10 13 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 ENE 10 13 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 59 ENE 10 13 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 61 ESE 8 9 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 63 ESE 8 9 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 62 64 ESE 8 9 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 63 65 S 8 9 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 63 64 S 8 9 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 63 S 8 9 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 62 SE 10 12 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 56 SE 10 12 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 53 53 SE 10 12 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 NE 9 11 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 NE 9 11 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 NE 9 11 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 NNE 10 12 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 NNE 10 12 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NNE 10 12 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 NE 12 18 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 NE 12 18 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 NE 12 18 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 NE 18 26 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 NE 18 26 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 NE 18 26 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 NE 25 35 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 NE 25 35 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 NE 25 35 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 61 NE 25 36 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 63 NE 25 36 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 65 NE 25 36 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 66 NE 25 35 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 64 65 NE 25 35 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 64 NE 25 35 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 62 NE 19 27 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 54 NE 19 27 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 NE 19 27 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 51 NE 16 23 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 NE 16 23 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 NE 16 23 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 NE 13 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 NE 13 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 NE 13 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 NE 16 23 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 NE 16 23 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 NE 16 23 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 59 NNE 12 18 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 63 NNE 12 18 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 65 NNE 12 18 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 64 66 NNE 12 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 65 NNE 12 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 64 NNE 12 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 62 62 NNE 12 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 60 NNE 12 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 57 NNE 12 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 55 NNE 11 17 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 NNE 11 17 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 NNE 11 17 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 NNE 11 17 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 NNE 11 17 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 NNE 11 17 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 NNE 12 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 NNE 12 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 NNE 12 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 NNE 14 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 62 NNE 14 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 63 NNE 14 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 65 NNE 14 21 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 65 NNE 14 21 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 64 64 NNE 14 21 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 62 NNE 14 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 60 60 NNE 14 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 58 NNE 14 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 56 NNE 12 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 NNE 12 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 NNE 12 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 NNE 13 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 NNE 13 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 NNE 13 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 NNE 13 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 NNE 13 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 NNE 13 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 NNE 13 21 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 NNE 13 21 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 57 NNE 13 21 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 61 NNE 13 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 63 NNE 13 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 65 NNE 13 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 65 66 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 65 66 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 65 65 NNE 13 20 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 63 NNE 12 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 61 61 NNE 12 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 58 58 NNE 12 19 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 NE 11 16 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 NE 11 16 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 NE 11 16 2602 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 NE 11 17 2602 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst