Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.9339606586, -116.481859729, 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 WSW 27 41 5846 5630 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 37 37 WSW 29 47 5613 5630 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 37 37 WSW 28 46 5613 5630 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 35 35 WSW 28 46 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 WSW 27 43 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 WSW 27 44 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 SW 26 41 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 WSW 24 37 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 WSW 21 35 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 40 WSW 20 33 6311 5630 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 41 42 WSW 20 34 6772 6074 444 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 43 44 WSW 23 35 7328 6533 903 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 46 47 WSW 25 39 8045 7304 1674 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 46 47 WSW 27 43 8045 7304 1674 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 45 46 WSW 29 48 7848 6989 1359 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 32 50 7328 6533 903 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 43 43 WSW 33 52 7001 6304 674 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 39 39 WSW 33 54 6079 5630 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 37 37 WSW 33 54 5613 5630 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 34 34 WSW 33 52 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 32 32 WSW 32 51 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 WSW 33 52 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 32 32 WSW 33 52 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 WSW 32 51 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 WSW 29 47 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 WSW 29 47 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 WSW 28 44 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 WSW 26 42 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 WSW 26 41 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 WSW 25 40 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 W 23 36 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 W 21 34 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 W 19 32 5233 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 38 W 18 28 5846 5630 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 37 39 W 17 26 6079 5630 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 42 46 W 14 24 7848 6989 1359 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 45 50 W 13 23 8354 8036 2406 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 51 56 W 12 20 10961 9510 3880 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 49 54 W 11 18 9956 8719 3089 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 54 58 W 10 17 11316 10381 4751 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 54 56 WNW 10 16 10961 9510 3880 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 51 52 WNW 9 14 9168 8239 2609 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 48 48 W 9 14 8147 7677 2047 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 46 46 W 9 14 7848 6989 1359 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 42 42 W 10 16 6772 6074 444 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 45 45 W 9 16 7706 6761 1131 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 48 48 W 9 14 8147 7677 2047 Blue 12
11 PM Mon 39 39 W 9 14 6079 5630 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 W 9 13 7706 6761 1131 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 45 45 W 9 13 7706 6761 1131 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 40 40 WSW 8 13 6311 5630 0 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 46 46 W 8 12 7848 6989 1359 Blue 10
4 AM Tue 44 44 W 6 11 7328 6533 903 Blue 8
5 AM Tue 39 39 W 5 10 6079 5630 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 44 44 WNW 5 9 7328 6533 903 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 47 47 WNW 5 9 8045 7304 1674 Blue 11
8 AM Tue 45 46 NW 5 10 7848 6989 1359 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 49 52 NNW 8 12 9168 8239 2609 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 50 55 NNE 10 16 10472 9118 3488 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 54 60 ENE 11 18 11500 11103 5473 Blue 24
12 Noon Tue 63 70 ENE 12 19 13071 12618 6988 Blue 34
1 PM Tue 54 62 NE 12 20 11718 11423 5793 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 58 65 NE 12 19 12372 11663 6033 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 66 71 N 12 19 13210 12757 7127 Blue 35
4 PM Tue 65 68 NW 11 18 12792 12339 6709 Blue 32
5 PM Tue 59 60 W 10 17 11500 11103 5473 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 57 57 W 10 16 11138 9897 4267 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 56 56 W 9 14 10961 9510 3880 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 52 52 W 9 13 9168 8239 2609 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 56 56 W 8 13 10961 9510 3880 Blue 20
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 8 13 11500 11103 5473 Blue 24
11 PM Tue 50 50 W 9 13 8354 8036 2406 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 WNW 10 17 7848 6989 1359 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 48 48 WNW 10 17 8147 7677 2047 Blue 12
2 AM Wed 52 52 W 9 13 9168 8239 2609 Blue 16
3 AM Wed 54 54 WNW 10 17 9956 8719 3089 Blue 18
4 AM Wed 53 53 WNW 10 17 9565 8341 2711 Blue 17
5 AM Wed 52 52 W 8 12 9168 8239 2609 Blue 16
6 AM Wed 53 53 W 8 12 9565 8341 2711 Blue 17
7 AM Wed 55 55 W 8 12 10472 9118 3488 Blue 19
8 AM Wed 58 59 W 8 12 11436 10907 5277 Blue 23
9 AM Wed 62 65 W 8 12 12372 11663 6033 Blue 29
10 AM Wed 66 70 W 8 12 13071 12618 6988 Blue 34
11 AM Wed 68 74 W 10 17 14363 13173 7543 Blue 38
12 Noon Wed 70 77 W 10 17 16777 14079 8449 Blue 41
1 PM Wed 71 78 W 10 17 17129 14966 9336 Blue 42
2 PM Wed 70 77 W 13 21 16777 14079 8449 Blue 41
3 PM Wed 71 76 W 13 21 16105 13432 7802 Blue 40
4 PM Wed 70 73 W 13 21 13463 13035 7405 Blue 37
5 PM Wed 68 69 W 12 20 12931 12478 6848 Blue 33
6 PM Wed 63 63 W 12 20 11975 11487 5857 Blue 27
7 PM Wed 58 58 W 12 20 11316 10381 4751 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 53 53 W 10 17 9565 8341 2711 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 50 50 W 10 17 8354 8036 2406 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 49 49 W 10 17 8249 7826 2196 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 49 49 W 9 14 8249 7826 2196 Blue 13
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 W 9 14 8147 7677 2047 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 48 48 W 9 14 8147 7677 2047 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 48 48 W 9 14 8147 7677 2047 Blue 12
3 AM Thu 47 47 W 9 14 8045 7304 1674 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 46 46 W 9 14 7848 6989 1359 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 46 46 WSW 9 13 7848 6989 1359 Blue 10
6 AM Thu 47 47 WSW 9 13 8045 7304 1674 Blue 11
7 AM Thu 50 50 WSW 9 13 8354 8036 2406 Blue 14
8 AM Thu 54 54 WSW 9 13 9956 8719 3089 Blue 18
9 AM Thu 58 60 WSW 9 13 11500 11103 5473 Blue 24
10 AM Thu 63 66 WSW 9 13 12512 11918 6288 Blue 30
11 AM Thu 66 70 WSW 11 18 13071 12618 6988 Blue 34
12 Noon Thu 68 73 WSW 11 18 13463 13035 7405 Blue 37
1 PM Thu 68 73 WSW 11 18 13463 13035 7405 Blue 37
2 PM Thu 69 74 WSW 13 21 14363 13173 7543 Blue 38
3 PM Thu 68 71 WSW 13 21 13210 12757 7127 Blue 35
4 PM Thu 67 69 WSW 13 21 12931 12478 6848 Blue 33
5 PM Thu 64 64 W 13 23 12231 11550 5920 Blue 28
6 PM Thu 60 60 W 13 23 11500 11103 5473 Blue 24
7 PM Thu 55 55 W 13 23 10472 9118 3488 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 51 51 WSW 11 18 8764 8138 2508 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 49 49 WSW 11 18 8249 7826 2196 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 48 48 WSW 11 18 8147 7677 2047 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 48 48 WSW 11 18 8147 7677 2047 Blue 12
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 WSW 11 18 8045 7304 1674 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 46 46 WSW 11 18 7848 6989 1359 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 45 45 WSW 10 17 7706 6761 1131 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 44 44 WSW 10 17 7328 6533 903 Blue 8
4 AM Fri 44 44 WSW 10 17 7328 6533 903 Blue 8
5 AM Fri 44 44 WSW 10 17 7328 6533 903 Blue 8
6 AM Fri 45 45 WSW 10 17 7706 6761 1131 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 47 47 WSW 10 17 8045 7304 1674 Blue 11
8 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 10 17 8764 8138 2508 Blue 15
9 AM Fri 55 57 WSW 10 17 11138 9897 4267 Blue 21
10 AM Fri 60 63 WSW 10 17 11975 11487 5857 Blue 27
11 AM Fri 63 69 W 13 21 12931 12478 6848 Blue 33
12 Noon Fri 65 72 W 13 21 13349 12896 7266 Blue 36
1 PM Fri 64 71 W 13 21 13210 12757 7127 Blue 35
2 PM Fri 65 71 W 16 25 13210 12757 7127 Blue 35
3 PM Fri 64 69 W 16 25 12931 12478 6848 Blue 33
4 PM Fri 63 66 W 16 25 12512 11918 6288 Blue 30
5 PM Fri 61 62 W 17 26 11718 11423 5793 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 57 57 W 17 26 11138 9897 4267 Blue 21
7 PM Fri 52 52 W 17 26 9168 8239 2609 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 48 48 W 13 23 8147 7677 2047 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 45 45 W 13 23 7706 6761 1131 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 44 44 W 13 23 7328 6533 903 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst